Dynamics of effectuation and causation in technology-based new ventures (INTERACTIVE PAPER)

The creation of new ventures is a process characterized by the need to decide and take action in the face of uncertainty, and this is particularly so in the case of technology-based ventures. Effectuation theory (Sarasvathy, 2001) has advanced two possible approaches for making decisions while facing uncertainty in the entrepreneurial process. Causation logic is based on prediction and aims at lowering uncertainty, whereas effectuation logic is based on non-predictive action and aims at working with uncertainty. This study aims to generate more fine-grained insight in the dynamics of effectuation and causation over time. We address the following questions: (1) What patterns can be found in effectual and causal behaviour of technology-based new ventures over time? And (2) How may patterns in the dynamics of effectuation and causation be explained?

Effect of cooling rate on intercritically reheated microstructure and toughness in high strength low alloy steel

High strength low alloy steels have been shown to be adversely affected by the existence of regions of poor impact toughness within the heat affected zone (HAZ) produced during multipass welding. One of these regions is the intercritically reheated coarse grained HAZ or intercritical zone. Since this region is generally narrow and discontinuous, of the order of 0.5 mm in width, weld simulators are often employed to produce a larger volume of uniform microstructure suitable for toughness assessment. The steel usedfor this study was a commercial quenched and tempered steel of 450 MN m -2 yield strength. Specimen blanks were subjected to a simulated welding cycle to produce a coarse grained structure of upper bainite during the first thermal cycle, followed by a second thermal cycle where the peak temperature T p2 was controlled. Charpy tests carried out for T p2 values in the range 650-850°C showed low toughness for T p2 values between 760 and 790°C, in the intercritical regime. Microstructural investigation of the development of grain boundary martensite-retained austenite (MA) phase has been coupled with image analysis to measure the volume fraction of MAformed. Most of the MA constituent appears at the prior austenite grain boundaries during intercritical heating, resulting in a 'necklace' appearance. For values of T p2 greater than 790°C the necklace appearance is lost and the second phase areas are observed throughout the structure. Concurrent with this is the development of the fine grained, predominantly ferritic structure that is associated with the improvement in toughness. At this stage the microstructure is transforming from the intercritical regime structure to the supercritically reheated coarse grained HAZ structure. The toughness improvement occurs even though the MA phase is still present, suggesting that the embrittlement is associated with the presence of a connected grain boundary network of the MA phase. The nature of the second phase particles can be controlled by the cooling rate during the second cycle and variesfrom MA phase at high cooling rates to a pearlitic structure at low cooling rates. The lowest toughness of the intercritical zone is observed only when MA phase is present. The reason suggested for this is that only the MA particles debond readily, a number of debonded particles in close proximity providing sufficient stress concentration to initiate local cleavage. © 1993 The Institute of Materials.

Effects of microstructure, temperature and R-ratio on fatigue crack propagation and threshold behaviour in two Ni-base alloys

Fatigue crack propagation and threshold data for two Ni-base alloys, Astroloy and Nimonic 901, are reported. At room temperature the effect which altering the load ratio (R-ratio) has on fatigue behaviour is strongly dependent on grain size. In the coarse grained microstructures crack growth rates increase and threshold values decrease markedly as R rises from 0. 1 to 0. 8, whereas only small changes in behaviour occur in fine grained material. In Astroloy, when strength level and gamma grain size are kept constant, there is very little effect of processing route and gamma prime distribution on room temperature threshold and crack propagation results. The dominant microstructural effect on this type of fatigue behaviour is the matrix ( gamma ) grain size itself.

The influence of socio-cultural environments on the performance of nascent entrepreneurs:an instrumental variable approach

The importance of informal institutions and in particular culture for entrepreneurship is a subject of ongoing interest. Past research has mostly concentrated on cross-national comparisons, cultural values, and the direct effects of culture on entrepreneurial behavior, but in the main found inconsistent results. The present research adds a fresh perspective to this research stream by turning attention to community-level culture and cultural norms. We hypothesize indirect effects of cultural norms on venture emergence. Specifically that community-level cultural norms (performance-based culture and socially-supportive institutional norms) impact important supply-side variables (entrepreneurial self-efficacy and entrepreneurial motivation) which in turn influence nascent entrepreneurs’ success in creating operational ventures (venture emergence). We test our predictions on a unique longitudinal data set (PSED II) tracking nascent entrepreneurs venture creation efforts over a 5 year time span and find evidence supporting them. Our research contributes to a more fine-grained understanding of how culture, in particular perceptions of community cultural norms, influences venture emergence. This research highlights the embeddedness of entrepreneurial behavior and its immediate antecedent beliefs in the local, community context.

Linked knowledge sources for topic classification of microposts:a semantic graph-based approach

Short text messages a.k.a Microposts (e.g. Tweets) have proven to be an effective channel for revealing information about trends and events, ranging from those related to Disaster (e.g. hurricane Sandy) to those related to Violence (e.g. Egyptian revolution). Being informed about such events as they occur could be extremely important to authorities and emergency professionals by allowing such parties to immediately respond. In this work we study the problem of topic classification (TC) of Microposts, which aims to automatically classify short messages based on the subject(s) discussed in them. The accurate TC of Microposts however is a challenging task since the limited number of tokens in a post often implies a lack of sufficient contextual information. In order to provide contextual information to Microposts, we present and evaluate several graph structures surrounding concepts present in linked knowledge sources (KSs). Traditional TC techniques enrich the content of Microposts with features extracted only from the Microposts content. In contrast our approach relies on the generation of different weighted semantic meta-graphs extracted from linked KSs. We introduce a new semantic graph, called category meta-graph. This novel meta-graph provides a more fine grained categorisation of concepts providing a set of novel semantic features. Our findings show that such category meta-graph features effectively improve the performance of a topic classifier of Microposts. Furthermore our goal is also to understand which semantic feature contributes to the performance of a topic classifier. For this reason we propose an approach for automatic estimation of accuracy loss of a topic classifier on new, unseen Microposts. We introduce and evaluate novel topic similarity measures, which capture the similarity between the KS documents and Microposts at a conceptual level, considering the enriched representation of these documents. Extensive evaluation in the context of Emergency Response (ER) and Violence Detection (VD) revealed that our approach outperforms previous approaches using single KS without linked data and Twitter data only up to 31.4% in terms of F1 measure. Our main findings indicate that the new category graph contains useful information for TC and achieves comparable results to previously used semantic graphs. Furthermore our results also indicate that the accuracy of a topic classifier can be accurately predicted using the enhanced text representation, outperforming previous approaches considering content-based similarity measures. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Institutions, policies, and arguments:context and strategy in EU policy framing

Studies of framing in the EU political system are still a rarity and they suffer from a lack of systematic empirical analysis. Addressing this gap, we ask if institutional and policy contexts intertwined with the strategic side of framing can explain the number and types of frames employed by different stakeholders. We use a computer-assisted manual content analysis and develop a fourfold typology of frames to study the frames that were prevalent in the debates on four EU policy proposals within financial market regulation and environmental policy at the EU level and in Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The main empirical finding is that both contexts and strategies exert a significant impact on the number and types of frames in EU policy debates. In conceptual terms, the article contributes to developing more fine-grained tools for studying frames and their underlying dimensions.

Pub crawling at scale:tapping untappd to explore social drinking

There has been a recent surge of research looking at the reporting of food consumption on social media. The topic of alcohol consumption, however, remains poorly investigated. Social media has the potential to shed light on a topic that, traditionally, is difficult to collect fine-grained information on. One social app stands out in this regard: Untappd is an app that allows users to ‘check-in’ their consumption of beers. It operates in a similar fashion to other location-based applications, but is specifically tailored to the collection of information on beer consumption. In this paper, we explore beer consumption through the lens of social media. We crawled Untappd in real time over a period of 112 days, across 40 cities in the United States and Europe. Using this data, we shed light on the drinking habits of over 369k users. We focus on per-user and per-city characterisation, highlighting key behavioural trends.

Optimizing storage and memory systems for energy and performance

Electrical energy is an essential resource for the modern world. Unfortunately, its price has almost doubled in the last decade. Furthermore, energy production is also currently one of the primary sources of pollution. These concerns are becoming more important in data-centers. As more computational power is required to serve hundreds of millions of users, bigger data-centers are becoming necessary. This results in higher electrical energy consumption. Of all the energy used in data-centers, including power distribution units, lights, and cooling, computer hardware consumes as much as 80%. Consequently, there is opportunity to make data-centers more energy efficient by designing systems with lower energy footprint. Consuming less energy is critical not only in data-centers. It is also important in mobile devices where battery-based energy is a scarce resource. Reducing the energy consumption of these devices will allow them to last longer and re-charge less frequently. Saving energy in computer systems is a challenging problem. Improving a system's energy efficiency usually comes at the cost of compromises in other areas such as performance or reliability. In the case of secondary storage, for example, spinning-down the disks to save energy can incur high latencies if they are accessed while in this state. The challenge is to be able to increase the energy efficiency while keeping the system as reliable and responsive as before. This thesis tackles the problem of improving energy efficiency in existing systems while reducing the impact on performance. First, we propose a new technique to achieve fine grained energy proportionality in multi-disk systems; Second, we design and implement an energy-efficient cache system using flash memory that increases disk idleness to save energy; Finally, we identify and explore solutions for the page fetch-before-update problem in caching systems that can: (a) control better I/O traffic to secondary storage and (b) provide critical performance improvement for energy efficient systems.

Regional diversification and performance: Conceptualization and competing strategic objectives

This dissertation comprised of three essays provides justification for the need to pursue research on multinationality and performance with a more fine-grained approach. Essay one is a conceptual response to an article written by Jean-Francois Hennart in 2011 which questions the need and approach toward future research in this domain. I argue that internalization theory does not render multinationality and performance research meaningless and identify key areas where methodological enhancements can be made to strengthen our research findings with regard to Hennart's call for more content validity. Essay two responds to the need for more-fine grained research on the consequences of multinationality by introducing non-traditional measures of performance such as social and environmental performance and adopting a more theoretically relevant construct of regionalization to capture international diversification levels of the firm. Using data from the world's largest 600 firms (based on sales) derived from Bloomberg and the Directory of Corporate Affiliates; I employ general estimating equation analysis to account for the auto-correlated nature of the panel data alongside multivariate regression techniques. Results indicate that regionalization has a positive relationship with economic performance while it has a negative relationship with environmental and social performance outcomes, often referred to as the "Triple Bottom-Line" performance. Essay three builds upon the work in the previous essays by linking the aforementioned performance variables and sample to corporate reputation which has been shown to be a beneficial strategic asset. Using Structural Equation Modeling I explore economic, environmental and social signals as mediators on relationship between regionalization and firm reputation. Results indicate that these variables partially mediate a positive relationship between regionalization and firm reputation. While regionalization positively affects the reputation building signal of economic performance, it aids in reputation building by reducing environmental and social disclosure effects which interestingly impact reputation negatively. In conclusion, the dissertation submits opportunities for future research and contributes to research by demonstrating that regionalization affects performance, but the effect varies in accordance with the performance criterion and context. In some cases, regional diversification may produce competing or conflicting outcomes among the potential strategic objectives of the firm.

Next generation of recommender systems: Algorithms and applications

Personalized recommender systems aim to assist users in retrieving and accessing interesting items by automatically acquiring user preferences from the historical data and matching items with the preferences. In the last decade, recommendation services have gained great attention due to the problem of information overload. However, despite recent advances of personalization techniques, several critical issues in modern recommender systems have not been well studied. These issues include: (1) understanding the accessing patterns of users (i.e., how to effectively model users' accessing behaviors); (2) understanding the relations between users and other objects (i.e., how to comprehensively assess the complex correlations between users and entities in recommender systems); and (3) understanding the interest change of users (i.e., how to adaptively capture users' preference drift over time). To meet the needs of users in modern recommender systems, it is imperative to provide solutions to address the aforementioned issues and apply the solutions to real-world applications. ^ The major goal of this dissertation is to provide integrated recommendation approaches to tackle the challenges of the current generation of recommender systems. In particular, three user-oriented aspects of recommendation techniques were studied, including understanding accessing patterns, understanding complex relations and understanding temporal dynamics. To this end, we made three research contributions. First, we presented various personalized user profiling algorithms to capture click behaviors of users from both coarse- and fine-grained granularities; second, we proposed graph-based recommendation models to describe the complex correlations in a recommender system; third, we studied temporal recommendation approaches in order to capture the preference changes of users, by considering both long-term and short-term user profiles. In addition, a versatile recommendation framework was proposed, in which the proposed recommendation techniques were seamlessly integrated. Different evaluation criteria were implemented in this framework for evaluating recommendation techniques in real-world recommendation applications. ^ In summary, the frequent changes of user interests and item repository lead to a series of user-centric challenges that are not well addressed in the current generation of recommender systems. My work proposed reasonable solutions to these challenges and provided insights on how to address these challenges using a simple yet effective recommendation framework.^

Petrologic and geochemical study of crustal xenoliths from Calbuco Volcano, Chile (latitude 41°20ʹS)

Twenty Four samples of xenoliths and country rocks from the 1961 lava flow of Calbuco volcano have been studied. Fourteen samples have been analyzed for major elements and P, Ni, Ba, Cr, V, Zr, Sc, Y, and Sr. Five of these samples were further analyzed for Sm, Nd, Sr, and Pb isotope ratios. Seventeen samples were studied under the microscope and three samples were analyzed by microprobe for their pyroxene compositions. Based on petrographic studies xenoliths were divided into three groups. Fine grained xenoliths (groups I and II) probably formed from metamorphosed MORB-like basalts, whereas coarse grained xenoliths (group III) were apparently derived from cumulate minerals that crystallized from the Calbuco magma. The fine grained xenoliths were probably entrained in magma at intermediate levels of the crust, near the stability limit of amphibole to form pyroxene and plagioclase. In the coarse grained xenoliths amphibole that formed at depth dehydrated as the xenoliths were brought to the surface. The country rocks are apparently unrelated to the xenoliths.

A high-resolution sedimentology and age determination of core PS2185 from the central Arctic Ocean

A high-resolution multiparameter stratigraphy allows the identification of late Quaternary glacial and interglacial cycles in a central Arctic Ocean sediment core. Distinct sandy layers in the upper part of the otherwise fine-grained sediment core from the Lomonosov Ridge (lat 87.5°N) correlate to four major glacials since ca. 0.7 Ma. The composition of these ice-rafted terrigenous sediments points to a glaciated northern Siberia as the main source. In contrast, lithic carbonates derived from North America are also present in older sediments and indicate a northern North American glaciation since at least 2.8 Ma. We conclude that large-scale northern Siberian glaciation began much later than other Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Sedimentology of cores from the Iberian margin

Bioturbation in marine sediments has basically two aspects of interest for palaeo-environmental studies. First, the traces left by the burrowing organisms reflect the prevailing environmental conditions at the seafloor and thus can be used to reconstruct the ecologic and palaeoceanographic situation. Traces have the advantage over other proxies of practically always being preserved in situ. Secondly, for high- resolution stratigraphy, bioturbation is a nuisance due to the stirring and mixing processes that destroy the stratigraphic record. In order to evaluate the applicability of biogenic traces as palaeoenvironmental indicators, a number of gravity cores from the Portuguese continental slope, covering the period from the last glacial to the present were investigated through X-ray radiographs. In addition, physical and chemical parameters were determined to define the environmental niche in each core interval. A number of traces could be recognized, the most important being: Thalassinoides, Planolites, Zoophycos, Chondrites, Scolicia, Palaeophycus, Phycosiphon and the generally pyritized traces Trichichnus and Mycellia. The shifts between the different ichnofabrics agree strikingly well with the variations in ocean circulation caused by the changing climate. On the upper and middle slope, variations in current intensity and oxygenation of the Mediterranean Outflow Water were responsible for shifts in the ichnofabric. Larger traces such as Planolites and Thalassinoides dominated in coarse, well oxygenated intervals, while small traces such as Chondrites and Trichichnus dominated in fine grained, poorly oxygenated intervals. In contrast, on the lower slope where calm steady sedimentation conditions prevail, changes in sedimentation rate and nutrient flux have controlled variations in the distribution of larger traces such as Planolites, Thalassinoides, and Palaeophycus. Additionally, distinct layers of abundant Chondrites correspond to Heinrich events 1, 2, and 4, and are interpreted as a response to incursions of nutrient rich, oxygen depleted Antarctic waters during phases of reduced thermohaline circulation. The results clearly show that not one single factor but a combination of several factors is necessary to explain the changes in ichnofabric. Furthermore, large variations in the extent and type of bioturbation and tiering between different settings clearly show that a more detailed knowledge of the factors governing bioturbation is necessary if we shall fully comprehend how proxy records are disturbed. A first attempt to automatize a part of the recognition and quantification of the ichnofabric was performed using the DIAna image analysis program on digitized X-ray radiographs. The results show that enhanced abundance of pyritized microburrows appears to be coupled to organic rich sediments deposited under dysoxic conditions. Coarse grained sediments inhibit the formation of pyritized burrows. However, the smallest changes in program settings controlling the grey scale threshold and the sensitivity resulted in large shifts in the number of detected burrows. Therefore, this method can only be considered to be semi-quantitative. Through AMS-^C dating of sample pairs from the Zoophycos spreiten and the surrounding host sediment, age reversals of up to 3,320 years could be demonstrated for the first time. The spreiten material is always several thousands of years younger than the surrounding host sediment. Together with detailed X-ray radiograph studies this shows that the trace maker collects the material on the seafloor, and then transports it downwards up to more than one meter in to the underlying sediment where it is deposited in distinct structures termed spreiten. This clearly shows that age reversals of several thousands of years can be expected whenever Zoophycos is unknowingly sampled. These results also render the hitherto proposed ethological models proposed for Zoophycos as largely implausible. Therefore, a combination of detritus feeding, short time caching, and hibernation possibly combined also with gardening, is suggested here as an explanation for this complicated burrow.

Análise estratigráfica de subsuperfície do Devoniano Inferior da Bacia do Rio do Peixe, Nordeste do Brasil

Subsurface stratigraphic analysis of Devonian strata from the Rio do Peixe Basin, newly recognized by palynological studies, has resulted in the identification of two new lithostratigraphic units assembled in the Santa Helena Group. The Pilões Formation, the lower unit, is composed mainly of dark mudstones and medium-tovery fine-grained sandstones, with minor conglomerates and breccias. The Triunfo Formation, the upper unit, comprises whitish grey, kaolinitic, coarse-grained to conglomeratic, cross stratified sandstones and conglomerates, with interbedded mudstones and fine-grained sandstones. These units were characterized using cores, sidewall and cuttings samples, conventional logs and image log, from three wells drilled by PETROBRAS, and 3D seismic data. The Pilões Formation is interpreted as prodeltaic facies, with lesser associated subaqueous talus, debrite and sandy turbidite lobe facies, distal part of fandelta and braided fluviodeltaic facies of Triunfo Formation. The Santa Helena Group corresponds to the Lower Devonian tectono-sequence deposited in a NW-SE-trending graben during a transgressiveregressive cycle. With 343 meters of thickness (isochore) in well 1-PIL-1-PB (Pilões 1), this sequence has a non-conformity at the lower boundary and its upper boundary is an unconformity with the Lower Cretaceous tectono-sequence (Rio do Peixe Group), that represents a hiatus of about 265 million years. Ignimbrites and coignimbrite breccias (Poço da Jurema volcanic breccia), related to an unknown pyroclastic volcanic event, were recognized at the northern margin of the Sousa halfgraben. Evidence from well data suggests that this event is coeval with the Devonian graben filling. The present study indicates a polyhistorical tectono-volcanosedimentary evolution of the basin. This lithostratigraphic update brings new perspectives for geological research in the Rio do Peixe Basin, as well as in other inland basins of the Northeastern of Brazil. The results of the research also contribute to the kwnoledge of the Borborema Province and western Gondwana paleogeography during the Early Devonian.

Alkenone and foraminifera records from sediment samples off Namibia

Radiocarbon stratigraphy is an essential tool for high resolution paleoceanographic studies. Age models based on radiocarbon ages of foraminifera are commonly applied to a wide range of geochemical studies, including the investigation of temporal leads and lags. The critical assumption is that temporal coupling between foraminifera and other sediment constituents, including specific molecular organic compounds (biomarkers) of marine phytoplankton, e.g. alkenones, is maintained in the sediments. To test this critical assumption in the Benguela upwelling area, we have determined radiocarbon ages of total C37-C39 alkenones in 20 samples from two gravity cores and three multicorer cores. The cores were retrieved from the continental shelf and slope off Namibia, and samples were taken from Holocene, deglacial and Last Glacial Maximum core sections. The alkenone radiocarbon ages were compared to those of planktic foraminifera, total organic carbon, fatty acids and fine grained carbonates from the same samples. Interestingly, the ages of alkenones were 1000 to 4500 yr older than those of foraminifera in all samples. Such age differences may be the result of different processes: Bioturbation associated with grain size effects, lateral advection of (recycled) material and redeposition of sediment on upper continental slopes due to currents or tidal movement are examples for such processes. Based on the results of this study, the age offsets between foraminifera and alkenones in sediments from the upper continental slope off Namibia most probably do not result from particle-selective bioturbation processes. Resuspension of organic particles in response to tidal movement of bottom waters with velocities up to 25 cm/s recorded near the core sites is the more likely explanation. Our results imply that age control established using radiocarbon measurements of foraminifera may be inadequate for the interpretation of alkenone-based proxy data. Observed temporal leads and lags between foraminifera based data and data derived from alkenone measurements may therefore be secondary signals, i.e. the result of processes associated with particle settling and biological activity.