Social Cognition is not Reducible to Theory of Mind. When Children use Deontic Rules to Predict Others' Behaviors

The objective of this paper is to discuss whether children have a capacity for deonticreasoning that is irreducible to mentalizing. The results of two experiments point tothe existence of such non-mentalistic understanding and prediction of the behaviourof others. In Study 1, young children (3- and 4-year-olds) were told different versionsof classic false-belief tasks, some of which were modified by the introduction of a ruleor a regularity. When the task (a standard change of location task) included a rule, theperformance of 3-year-olds, who fail traditional false-belief tasks, significantly improved.In Study 2, 3-year-olds proved to be able to infer a rule from a social situation and touse it in order to predict the behaviour of a character involved in a modified versionof the false-belief task. These studies suggest that rules play a central role in the socialcognition of young children and that deontic reasoning might not necessarily involvemind reading.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

A statistical methodology for the comparison of blue gel pen inks analyzed by laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry

A statistical methodology for the objective comparison of LDI-MS mass spectra of blue gel pen inks was evaluated. Thirty-three blue gel pen inks previously studied by RAMAN were analyzed directly on the paper using both positive and negative mode. The obtained mass spectra were first compared using relative areas of selected peaks using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Euclidean distance. Intra-variability among results from one ink and inter-variability between results from different inks were compared in order to choose a differentiation threshold minimizing the rate of false negative (i.e. avoiding false differentiation of the inks). This yielded a discriminating power of up to 77% for analysis made in the negative mode. The whole mass spectra were then compared using the same methodology, allowing for a better DP in the negative mode of 92% using the Pearson correlation on standardized data. The positive mode results generally yielded a lower differential power (DP) than the negative mode due to a higher intra-variability compared to the inter-variability in the mass spectra of the ink samples.

High specificity of line-immunoassay based algorithms for recent HIV-1 infection independent of viral subtype and stage of disease.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Serologic testing algorithms for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS) provide important information for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody reaction in a confirmatory line immunoassay (INNO-LIATM HIV I/II Score, Innogenetics) provides information on the duration of infection. Here, we sought to further investigate the diagnostic specificity of various Inno-Lia algorithms and to identify factors affecting it. METHODS: Plasma samples of 714 selected patients of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study infected for longer than 12 months and representing all viral clades and stages of chronic HIV-1 infection were tested blindly by Inno-Lia and classified as either incident (up to 12 m) or older infection by 24 different algorithms. Of the total, 524 patients received HAART, 308 had HIV-1 RNA below 50 copies/mL, and 620 were infected by a HIV-1 non-B clade. Using logistic regression analysis we evaluated factors that might affect the specificity of these algorithms. RESULTS: HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL was associated with significantly lower reactivity to all five HIV-1 antigens of the Inno-Lia and impaired specificity of most algorithms. Among 412 patients either untreated or with HIV-1 RNA ≥50 copies/mL despite HAART, the median specificity of the algorithms was 96.5% (range 92.0-100%). The only factor that significantly promoted false-incident results in this group was age, with false-incident results increasing by a few percent per additional year. HIV-1 clade, HIV-1 RNA, CD4 percentage, sex, disease stage, and testing modalities exhibited no significance. Results were similar among 190 untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: The specificity of most Inno-Lia algorithms was high and not affected by HIV-1 variability, advanced disease and other factors promoting false-recent results in other STARHS. Specificity should be good in any group of untreated HIV-1 patients.

Ethyl glucuronide in plant extracts :O16

Introduction: The specificity of ethyl glucuronide (EtG) in hair as marker of alcohol consumption exceeds by far those of fatty acid ethyl esters. False positive cases are therefore very rare but not excluded as recent publications have shown. Especially, the use of plant extracts containing high percentages of ethanol can lead to EtG hair concentrations typically found in cases of chronic alcohol consumption. As proposed by Baumgartner et al., a nucleohilic substitution could most likely explain this phenomenon. Fresh and dried plants as well as commercial hair lotions based on plants extracts have been analysed for EtG presence or EtG formation. Methods: Urtica dioica, Plantago lanceolata, Cortex Quercus, Sempervivum, Armoracia rusticana, Juniperus communis, Brassica alba, Thymian vulgaris, Salvia officinalis, Majorana hortensis, Aloe vera, birch gingko and green tea leafs, ginger, lemon grass were extracted in water, water/ethanol (50/50) and ethanol (100%). The extracts as well as diluted hair lotions were measured by immunological test (Microgenics DRI® EtG assay) and by LC-MS/MS on Shimadzu Nexera UHPLC coupled with an AB Sciex 4500 QTrap. Results: EtG could not be detected in water extracts of all tested plants. However, DRI® EtG assay indicated the presence of EtG in 66% of the tested ethanolic plant extracts. That could only be confirmed by mass spectrometry in the cases of fresh thyme as well as in dried birch, oak and plantain extracts where EtG concentrations between of 0.25 and 2,09 mg/l were measured. In one hair lotion, the EtG concentration was 0,76 mg/l. Conclusion: Ethanolic plant extracts represents a non-negligible risk for false positive EtG hair tests, especially when applied as lotion without following washing out. The use of hair care products must therefore be evaluated at every hair sampling. In case of doubt, the product should be analysed by mass spectrometric methods since the presence of EtG can't be proven by use of the DRI® EtG assay, only. Our results support Baumgartner's assumption of a nucleophilic substitution in presence of ethanol because EtG was only measured in the ethanolic extracts.

Recovery of paraplegia after type B dissection due to spinal collateral recruitment.

Acute paraplegia could be a symptom of aortic dissection due to sudden compromise of arterial spinal cord blood supply. Complete spontaneous neurologic recovery is possible and was observed in the present case 3 hours after symptom onset. Spontaneous spinal cord reperfusion after acute type B dissection was probably due to two main mechanisms. Reperfusion of false lumen and collateral vascular network recruitment, recently confirmed by anatomic animal studies, serve as potential explanations. Favorable evolution of acute paraplegia after aortic dissection exists, but prognosis is uncertain, probably due to individual variable anatomic distribution of spinal cord blood supply.

Non invasive transcutaneous blood carboxyhemoglobine level: reliability in victims of carbon monoxide poisoning

Introduction: Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is one of the mostcommon causes of fatal poisoning. Symptoms of CO poisoning arenonspecific and the documentation of elevated carboxyhemoglobin(HbCO) levels in arterial blood sample is the only standard ofconfirming suspected exposure. The treatment of CO poisoning requiresnormobaric or hyperbaric oxygen therapy, according to the symptomsand HbCO levels. A new device, the Rad-57 pulse CO-oximeter allowsnoninvasive transcutaneous measurement of blood carboxyhemoglobinlevel (SpCO) by measurement of light wavelength absorptions.Methods: Prospective cohort study with a sample of patients, admittedbetween October 2008 - March 2009 and October 2009 - March 2010,in the emergency services (ES) of a Swiss regional hospital and aSwiss university hospital (Burn Center). In case of suspected COpoisoning, three successive noninvasive measurements wereperformed, simultaneously with one arterial blood HbCO test. A controlgroup includes patients admitted in the ES for other complaints (cardiacinsufficiency, respiratory distress, acute renal failure), but necessitatingarterial blood testing. Informed consent was obtained from all patients.The primary endpoint was to assess the agreement of themeasurements made by the Rad-57 (SpCO) and the blood levels(HbCO).Results: 50 patients were enrolled, among whom 32 were admittedfor suspected CO poisoning. Baseline demographic and clinicalcharacteristics of patients are presented in table 1. The median age was37.7 ans ± 11.8, 56% being male. Median laboratory carboxyhemoglobinlevels (HbCO) were 4.25% (95% IC 0.6-28.5) for intoxicated patientsand 1.8% (95% IC 1.0-5.3) for control patients. Only five patientspresented with HbCO levels >= 15%. The results disclose relatively faircorrelations between the SpCO levels obtained by the Rad-57 and thestandard HbCO, without any false negative results. However, theRad-57 tend to under-estimate the value of SpCO for patientsintoxicated HbCO levels >10% (fig. 1).Conclusion: Noninvasive transcutaneous measurement of bloodcarboxyhemoglobin level is easy to use. The correlation seems to becorrect for low to moderate levels (<15%). For higher values, weobserve a trend of the Rad-57 to under-estimate the HbCO levels. Apartfrom this potential limitation and a few cases of false-negative resultsdescribed in the literature, the Rad-57 may be useful for initial triageand diagnosis of CO.

Comparative gene finding in chicken indicates that we are closing in on the set of multi-exonic widely expressed human genes.

The recent availability of the chicken genome sequence poses the question of whether there are human protein-coding genes conserved in chicken that are currently not included in the human gene catalog. Here, we show, using comparative gene finding followed by experimental verification of exon pairs by RT-PCR, that the addition to the multi-exonic subset of this catalog could be as little as 0.2%, suggesting that we may be closing in on the human gene set. Our protocol, however, has two shortcomings: (i) the bioinformatic screening of the predicted genes, applied to filter out false positives, cannot handle intronless genes; and (ii) the experimental verification could fail to identify expression at a specific developmental time. This highlights the importance of developing methods that could provide a reliable estimate of the number of these two types of genes.

Prognostic value of continuous eeg monitoring during therapeutic hypothermia in patients with coma after cardiac arrest

INTRODUCTION: Continuous EEG (cEEG) is increasingly used to monitor brain function in neuro-ICU patients. However, its value in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA), particularly in the setting of therapeutic hypothermia (TH), is only beginning to be elucidated. The aim of this study was to examine whether cEEG performed during TH may predict outcome. METHODS: From April 2009 to April 2010, we prospectively studied 34 consecutive comatose patients treated with TH after CA who were monitored with cEEG, initiated during hypothermia and maintained after rewarming. EEG background reactivity to painful stimulation was tested. We analyzed the association between cEEG findings and neurologic outcome, assessed at 2 months with the Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). RESULTS: Continuous EEG recording was started 12 ± 6 hours after CA and lasted 30 ± 11 hours. Nonreactive cEEG background (12 of 15 (75%) among nonsurvivors versus none of 19 (0) survivors; P < 0.001) and prolonged discontinuous "burst-suppression" activity (11 of 15 (73%) versus none of 19; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with mortality. EEG seizures with absent background reactivity also differed significantly (seven of 15 (47%) versus none of 12 (0); P = 0.001). In patients with nonreactive background or seizures/epileptiform discharges on cEEG, no improvement was seen after TH. Nonreactive cEEG background during TH had a positive predictive value of 100% (95% confidence interval (CI), 74 to 100%) and a false-positive rate of 0 (95% CI, 0 to 18%) for mortality. All survivors had cEEG background reactivity, and the majority of them (14 (74%) of 19) had a favorable outcome (CPC 1 or 2). CONCLUSIONS: Continuous EEG monitoring showing a nonreactive or discontinuous background during TH is strongly associated with unfavorable outcome in patients with coma after CA. These data warrant larger studies to confirm the value of continuous EEG monitoring in predicting prognosis after CA and TH.

Retrospective analysis of stored dried blood spots from children with cystic fibrosis and matched controls to assess the performance of a proposed newborn screening protocol in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Newborn screening (NBS) for Cystic Fibrosis (CF) has been introduced in many countries, but there is no ideal protocol suitable for all countries. This retrospective study was conducted to evaluate whether the planned two step CF NBS with immunoreactive trypsinogen (IRT) and 7 CFTR mutations would have detected all clinically diagnosed children with CF in Switzerland. METHODS: IRT was measured using AutoDELFIA Neonatal IRT-Kit in stored NBS cards. RESULTS: Between 2006 and 2009, 66 children with CF were reported, 4 of which were excluded for various reasons (born in another country, NBS at 6 months, no informed consent). 98% (61/62) had significantly higher IRT compared to matched control group. There was one false negative IRT result in an asymptomatic child with atypical CF (normal pancreatic function and sweat test). CONCLUSIONS: All children but one with atypical CF would have been detected with the planned two step protocol.

Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data

1. Identifying the boundary of a species' niche from observational and environmental data is a common problem in ecology and conservation biology and a variety of techniques have been developed or applied to model niches and predict distributions. Here, we examine the performance of some pattern-recognition methods as ecological niche models (ENMs). Particularly, one-class pattern recognition is a flexible and seldom used methodology for modelling ecological niches and distributions from presence-only data. The development of one-class methods that perform comparably to two-class methods (for presence/absence data) would remove modelling decisions about sampling pseudo-absences or background data points when absence points are unavailable. 2. We studied nine methods for one-class classification and seven methods for two-class classification (five common to both), all primarily used in pattern recognition and therefore not common in species distribution and ecological niche modelling, across a set of 106 mountain plant species for which presence-absence data was available. We assessed accuracy using standard metrics and compared trade-offs in omission and commission errors between classification groups as well as effects of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation on accuracy. 3. One-class models fit to presence-only data were comparable to two-class models fit to presence-absence data when performance was evaluated with a measure weighting omission and commission errors equally. One-class models were superior for reducing omission errors (i.e. yielding higher sensitivity), and two-classes models were superior for reducing commission errors (i.e. yielding higher specificity). For these methods, spatial autocorrelation was only influential when prevalence was low. 4. These results differ from previous efforts to evaluate alternative modelling approaches to build ENM and are particularly noteworthy because data are from exhaustively sampled populations minimizing false absence records. Accurate, transferable models of species' ecological niches and distributions are needed to advance ecological research and are crucial for effective environmental planning and conservation; the pattern-recognition approaches studied here show good potential for future modelling studies. This study also provides an introduction to promising methods for ecological modelling inherited from the pattern-recognition discipline.

Diagnostic performance of Fluorine-18-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in the assessment of pleural abnormalities in cancer patients: A systematic review and a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and meta-analyze published data about the diagnostic performance of Fluorine-18-Fluorodeoxyglucose ((18)F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and PET/computed tomography (PET/CT) in the assessment of pleural abnormalities in cancer patients. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search of studies published through June 2013 regarding the role of (18)F-FDG-PET and PET/CT in evaluating pleural abnormalities in cancer patients was performed. All retrieved studies were reviewed and qualitatively analyzed. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR+ and LR-) and diagnostic odd ratio (DOR) of (18)F-FDG-PET or PET/CT on a per patient-based analysis were calculated. The area under the summary ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to measure the accuracy of these methods in the assessment of pleural abnormalities. Sub-analyses considering (18)F-FDG-PET/CT and patients with lung cancer only were carried out. RESULTS: Eight studies comprising 360 cancer patients (323 with lung cancer) were included. The meta-analysis of these selected studies provided the following results: sensitivity 86% [95% confidence interval (95%CI): 80-91%], specificity 80% [95%CI: 73-85%], LR+ 3.7 [95%CI: 2.8-4.9], LR- 0.18 [95%CI: 0.09-0.34], DOR 27 [95%CI: 13-56]. The AUC was 0.907. No significant improvement considering PET/CT studies only and patients with lung cancer was found. CONCLUSIONS: (18)F-FDG-PET and PET/CT demonstrated to be useful diagnostic imaging methods in the assessment of pleural abnormalities in cancer patients, nevertheless possible sources of false-negative and false-positive results should be kept in mind. The literature focusing on the use of (18)F-FDG-PET and PET/CT in this setting remains still limited and prospective studies are needed.

Does introduction of thresholds in decision aids benefit the patient?: Comparison between findings-based and threshold-based diagnostic decision aids.

PURPOSE: To assess how different diagnostic decision aids perform in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and harm. METHODS: Four diagnostic decision aids were compared, as applied to a simulated patient population: a findings-based algorithm following a linear or branched pathway, a serial threshold-based strategy, and a parallel threshold-based strategy. Headache in immune-compromised HIV patients in a developing country was used as an example. Diagnoses included cryptococcal meningitis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, tuberculous meningitis, bacterial meningitis, and malaria. Data were derived from literature and expert opinion. Diagnostic strategies' validity was assessed in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and harm related to mortality and morbidity. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation were performed. RESULTS: The parallel threshold-based approach led to a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 65%. Sensitivities of the serial threshold-based approach and the branched and linear algorithms were 47%, 47%, and 74%, respectively, and the specificities were 85%, 95%, and 96%. The parallel threshold-based approach resulted in the least harm, with the serial threshold-based approach, the branched algorithm, and the linear algorithm being associated with 1.56-, 1.44-, and 1.17-times higher harm, respectively. Findings were corroborated by sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses. CONCLUSION: A threshold-based diagnostic approach is designed to find the optimal trade-off that minimizes expected harm, enhancing sensitivity and lowering specificity when appropriate, as in the given example of a symptom pointing to several life-threatening diseases. Findings-based algorithms, in contrast, solely consider clinical observations. A parallel workup, as opposed to a serial workup, additionally allows for all potential diseases to be reviewed, further reducing false negatives. The parallel threshold-based approach might, however, not be as good in other disease settings.

Application of fuzzy-rule-based postprocessing to correlation methods in pattern recognition

One of the most important problems in optical pattern recognition by correlation is the appearance of sidelobes in the correlation plane, which causes false alarms. We present a method that eliminate sidelobes of up to a given height if certain conditions are satisfied. The method can be applied to any generalized synthetic discriminant function filter and is capable of rejecting lateral peaks that are even higher than the central correlation. Satisfactory results were obtained in both computer simulations and optical implementation.