Breast cancer detection from thermal images using bispectral invariant features

Highly sensitive infrared (IR) cameras provide high-resolution diagnostic images of the temperature and vascular changes of breasts. These images can be processed to emphasize hot spots that exhibit early and subtle changes owing to pathology. The resulting images show clusters that appear random in shape and spatial distribution but carry class dependent information in shape and texture. Automated pattern recognition techniques are challenged because of changes in location, size and orientation of these clusters. Higher order spectral invariant features provide robustness to such transformations and are suited for texture and shape dependent information extraction from noisy images. In this work, the effectiveness of bispectral invariant features in diagnostic classification of breast thermal images into malignant, benign and normal classes is evaluated and a phase-only variant of these features is proposed. High resolution IR images of breasts, captured with measuring accuracy of ±0.4% (full scale) and temperature resolution of 0.1 °C black body, depicting malignant, benign and normal pathologies are used in this study. Breast images are registered using their lower boundaries, automatically extracted using landmark points whose locations are learned during training. Boundaries are extracted using Canny edge detection and elimination of inner edges. Breast images are then segmented using fuzzy c-means clustering and the hottest regions are selected for feature extraction. Bispectral invariant features are extracted from Radon projections of these images. An Adaboost classifier is used to select and fuse the best features during training and then classify unseen test images into malignant, benign and normal classes. A data set comprising 9 malignant, 12 benign and 11 normal cases is used for evaluation of performance. Malignant cases are detected with 95% accuracy. A variant of the features using the normalized bispectrum, which discards all magnitude information, is shown to perform better for classification between benign and normal cases, with 83% accuracy compared to 66% for the original.

Genome-scale phylogeny and the detection of systematic biases

Phylogenetic inference from sequences can be misled by both sampling (stochastic) error and systematic error (nonhistorical signals where reality differs from our simplified models). A recent study of eight yeast species using 106 concatenated genes from complete genomes showed that even small internal edges of a tree received 100% bootstrap support. This effective negation of stochastic error from large data sets is important, but longer sequences exacerbate the potential for biases (systematic error) to be positively misleading. Indeed, when we analyzed the same data set using minimum evolution optimality criteria, an alternative tree received 100% bootstrap support. We identified a compositional bias as responsible for this inconsistency and showed that it is reduced effectively by coding the nucleotides as purines and pyrimidines (RY-coding), reinforcing the original tree. Thus, a comprehensive exploration of potential systematic biases is still required, even though genome-scale data sets greatly reduce sampling error.

A catchment modelling approach integrating surface and groundwater processes, land use and distribution of nutrients : Elimbah Creek, southeast Queensland

As the world’s population is growing, so is the demand for agricultural products. However, natural nitrogen (N) fixation and phosphorus (P) availability cannot sustain the rising agricultural production, thus, the application of N and P fertilisers as additional nutrient sources is common. It is those anthropogenic activities that can contribute high amounts of organic and inorganic nutrients to both surface and groundwaters resulting in degradation of water quality and a possible reduction of aquatic life. In addition, runoff and sewage from urban and residential areas can contain high amounts of inorganic and organic nutrients which may also affect water quality. For example, blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the coastline of southeast Queensland are an indicator of at least short term decreases of water quality. Although Australian catchments, including those with intensive forms of land use, show in general a low export of nutrients compared to North American and European catchments, certain land use practices may still have a detrimental effect on the coastal environment. Numerous studies are reported on nutrient cycling and associated processes on a catchment scale in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparable studies in Australia, in particular in subtropical regions are, however, limited and there is a paucity in the data, in particular for inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus; these nutrients are important limiting factors in surface waters to promote algal blooms. Therefore, the monitoring of N and P and understanding the sources and pathways of these nutrients within a catchment is important in coastal zone management. Although Australia is the driest continent, in subtropical regions such as southeast Queensland, rainfall patterns have a significant effect on runoff and thus the nutrient cycle at a catchment scale. Increasingly, these rainfall patterns are becoming variable. The monitoring of these climatic conditions and the hydrological response of agricultural catchments is therefore also important to reduce the anthropogenic effects on surface and groundwater quality. This study consists of an integrated hydrological–hydrochemical approach that assesses N and P in an environment with multiple land uses. The main aim is to determine the nutrient cycle within a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland, the Elimbah Creek catchment. In particular, the investigation confirms the influence associated with forestry and agriculture on N and P forms, sources, distribution and fate in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting. In addition, the study determines whether N and P are subject to transport into the adjacent estuary and thus into the marine environment; also considered is the effect of local topography, soils and geology on N and P sources and distribution. The thesis is structured on four components individually reported. The first paper determines the controls of catchment settings and processes on stream water, riverbank sediment, and shallow groundwater N and P concentrations, in particular during the extended dry conditions that were encountered during the study. Temporal and spatial factors such as seasonal changes, soil character, land use and catchment morphology are considered as well as their effect on controls over distributions of N and P in surface waters and associated groundwater. A total number of 30 surface and 13 shallow groundwater sampling sites were established throughout the catchment to represent dominant soil types and the land use upstream of each sampling location. Sampling comprises five rounds and was conducted over one year between October 2008 and November 2009. Surface water and groundwater samples were analysed for all major dissolved inorganic forms of N and for total N. Phosphorus was determined in the form of dissolved reactive P (predominantly orthophosphate) and total P. In addition, extracts of stream bank sediments and soil grab samples were analysed for these N and P species. Findings show that major storm events, in particular after long periods of drought conditions, are the driving force of N cycling. This is expressed by higher inorganic N concentrations in the agricultural subcatchment compared to the forested subcatchment. Nitrate N is the dominant inorganic form of N in both the surface and groundwaters and values are significantly higher in the groundwaters. Concentrations in the surface water range from 0.03 to 0.34 mg N L..1; organic N concentrations are considerably higher (average range: 0.33 to 0.85 mg N L..1), in particular in the forested subcatchment. Average NO3-N in the groundwater has a range of 0.39 to 2.08 mg N L..1, and organic N averages between 0.07 and 0.3 mg N L..1. The stream bank sediments are dominated by organic N (range: 0.53 to 0.65 mg N L..1), and the dominant inorganic form of N is NH4-N with values ranging between 0.38 and 0.41 mg N L..1. Topography and soils, however, were not to have a significant effect on N and P concentrations in waters. Detectable phosphorus in the surface and groundwaters of the catchment is limited to several locations typically in the proximity of areas with intensive animal use; in soil and sediments, P is negligible. In the second paper, the stable isotopes of N (14N/15N) and H2O (16O/18O and 2H/H) in surface and groundwaters are used to identify sources of dissolved inorganic and organic N in these waters, and to determine their pathways within the catchment; specific emphasis is placed on the relation of forestry and agriculture. Forestry is predominantly concentrated in the northern subcatchment (Beerburrum Creek) while agriculture is mainly found in the southern subcatchment (Six Mile Creek). Results show that agriculture (horticulture, crops, grazing) is the main source of inorganic N in the surface waters of the agricultural subcatchment, and their isotopic signature shows a close link to evaporation processes that may occur during water storage in farm dams that are used for irrigation. Groundwaters are subject to denitrification processes that may result in reduced dissolved inorganic N concentrations. Soil organic matter delivers most of the inorganic N to the surface water in the forested subcatchment. Here, precipitation and subsequently runoff is the main source of the surface waters. Groundwater in this area is affected by agricultural processes. The findings also show that the catchment can attenuate the effects of anthropogenic land use on surface water quality. Riparian strips of natural remnant vegetation, commonly 50 to 100 m in width, act as buffer zones along the drainage lines in the catchment and remove inorganic N from the soil water before it enters the creek. These riparian buffer zones are common in most agricultural catchments of southeast Queensland and are indicated to reduce the impact of agriculture on stream water quality and subsequently on the estuary and marine environments. This reduction is expressed by a significant decrease in DIN concentrations from 1.6 mg N L..1 to 0.09 mg N L..1, and a decrease in the �15N signatures from upstream surface water locations downstream to the outlet of the agricultural subcatchment. Further testing is, however, necessary to confirm these processes. Most importantly, the amount of N that is transported to the adjacent estuary is shown to be negligible. The third and fourth components of the thesis use a hydrological catchment model approach to determine the water balance of the Elimbah Creek catchment. The model is then used to simulate the effects of land use on the water balance and nutrient loads of the study area. The tool that is used is the internationally widely applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Knowledge about the water cycle of a catchment is imperative in nutrient studies as processes such as rainfall, surface runoff, soil infiltration and routing of water through the drainage system are the driving forces of the catchment nutrient cycle. Long-term information about discharge volumes of the creeks and rivers do, however, not exist for a number of agricultural catchments in southeast Queensland, and such information is necessary to calibrate and validate numerical models. Therefore, a two-step modelling approach was used to calibrate and validate parameters values from a near-by gauged reference catchment as starting values for the ungauged Elimbah Creek catchment. Transposing monthly calibrated and validated parameter values from the reference catchment to the ungauged catchment significantly improved model performance showing that the hydrological model of the catchment of interest is a strong predictor of the water water balance. The model efficiency coefficient EF shows that 94% of the simulated discharge matches the observed flow whereas only 54% of the observed streamflow was simulated by the SWAT model prior to using the validated values from the reference catchment. In addition, the hydrological model confirmed that total surface runoff contributes the majority of flow to the surface water in the catchment (65%). Only a small proportion of the water in the creek is contributed by total base-flow (35%). This finding supports the results of the stable isotopes 16O/18O and 2H/H, which show the main source of water in the creeks is either from local precipitation or irrigation waters delivered by surface runoff; a contribution from the groundwater (baseflow) to the creeks could not be identified using 16O/18O and 2H/H. In addition, the SWAT model calculated that around 68% of the rainfall occurring in the catchment is lost through evapotranspiration reflecting the prevailing long-term drought conditions that were observed prior and during the study. Stream discharge from the forested subcatchment was an order of magnitude lower than discharge from the agricultural Six Mile Creek subcatchment. A change in land use from forestry to agriculture did not significantly change the catchment water balance, however, nutrient loads increased considerably. Conversely, a simulated change from agriculture to forestry resulted in a significant decrease of nitrogen loads. The findings of the thesis and the approach used are shown to be of value to catchment water quality monitoring on a wider scale, in particular the implications of mixed land use on nutrient forms, distributions and concentrations. The study confirms that in the tropics and subtropics the water balance is affected by extended dry periods and seasonal rainfall with intensive storm events. In particular, the comprehensive data set of inorganic and organic N and P forms in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting acquired during the one year sampling program may be used in similar catchment hydrological studies where these detailed information is missing. Also, the study concludes that riparian buffer zones along the catchment drainage system attenuate the transport of nitrogen from agricultural sources in the surface water. Concentrations of N decreased from upstream to downstream locations and were negligible at the outlet of the catchment.

Improved estimates of percolation and anisotropic permeability from 3-D X-ray microtomography using stochastic analyses and visualization

X-ray microtomography (micro-CT) with micron resolution enables new ways of characterizing microstructures and opens pathways for forward calculations of multiscale rock properties. A quantitative characterization of the microstructure is the first step in this challenge. We developed a new approach to extract scale-dependent characteristics of porosity, percolation, and anisotropic permeability from 3-D microstructural models of rocks. The Hoshen-Kopelman algorithm of percolation theory is employed for a standard percolation analysis. The anisotropy of permeability is calculated by means of the star volume distribution approach. The local porosity distribution and local percolation probability are obtained by using the local porosity theory. Additionally, the local anisotropy distribution is defined and analyzed through two empirical probability density functions, the isotropy index and the elongation index. For such a high-resolution data set, the typical data sizes of the CT images are on the order of gigabytes to tens of gigabytes; thus an extremely large number of calculations are required. To resolve this large memory problem parallelization in OpenMP was used to optimally harness the shared memory infrastructure on cache coherent Non-Uniform Memory Access architecture machines such as the iVEC SGI Altix 3700Bx2 Supercomputer. We see adequate visualization of the results as an important element in this first pioneering study.

Genetic improvement of giant freshwater prawn in Vietnam

The giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) or GFP is one of the most important freshwater crustacean species in the inland aquaculture sector of many tropical and subtropical countries. Since the 1990’s, there has been rapid global expansion of freshwater prawn farming, especially in Asian countries, with an average annual rate of increase of 48% between 1999 and 2001 (New, 2005). In Vietnam, GFP is cultured in a variety of culture systems, typically in integrated or rotational rice-prawn culture (Phuong et al., 2006) and has become one of the most common farmed aquatic species in the country, due to its ability to grow rapidly and to attract high market price and high demand. Despite potential for expanded production, sustainability of freshwater prawn farming in the region is currently threatened by low production efficiency and vulnerability of farmed stocks to disease. Commercial large scale and small scale GFP farms in Vietnam have experienced relatively low stock productivity, large size and weight variation, a low proportion of edible meat (large head to body ratio), scarcity of good quality seed stock. The current situation highlights the need for a systematic stock improvement program for GFP in Vietnam aimed at improving economically important traits in this species. This study reports on the breeding program for fast growth employing combined (between and within) family selection in giant freshwater prawn in Vietnam. The base population was synthesized using a complete diallel cross including 9 crosses from two local stocks (DN and MK strains) and a third exotic stock (Malaysian strain - MY). In the next three selection generations, matings were conducted between genetically unrelated brood stock to produce full-sib and (paternal) half-sib families. All families were produced and reared separately until juveniles in each family were tagged as a batch using visible implant elastomer (VIE) at a body size of approximately 2 g. After tags were verified, 60 to 120 juveniles chosen randomly from each family were released into two common earthen ponds of 3,500 m2 pond for a grow-out period of 16 to 18 weeks. Selection applied at harvest on body weight was a combined (between and within) family selection approach. 81, 89, 96 and 114 families were produced for the Selection line in the F0, F1, F2 and F3 generations, respectively. In addition to the Selection line, 17 to 42 families were produced for the Control group in each generation. Results reported here are based on a data set consisting of 18,387 body and 1,730 carcass records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Variance and covariance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Experiments assessed performance of VIE tags in juvenile GFP of different size classes and individuals tagged with different numbers of tags showed that juvenile GFP at 2 g were of suitable size for VIE tags with no negative effects evident on growth or survival. Tag retention rates were above 97.8% and tag readability rates were 100% with a correct assignment rate of 95% through to mature animal size of up to 170 g. Across generations, estimates of heritability for body traits (body weight, body length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width and abdominal width) and carcass weight traits (abdominal weight, skeleton-off weight and telson-off weight) were moderate and ranged from 0.14 to 0.19 and 0.17 to 0.21, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated for females were significantly higher than for males whereas carcass weight trait heritabilities estimated for females and males were not significantly different (P > 0.05). Maternal and common environmental effects for body traits accounted for 4 to 5% of the total variance and were greater in females (7 to 10%) than in males (4 to 5%). Genetic correlations among body traits were generally high in both sexes. Genetic correlations between body and carcass weight traits were also high in the mixed sexes. Average selection response (% per generation) for body weight (transformed to square root) estimated as the difference between the Selection and the Control group was 7.4% calculated from least squares means (LSMs), 7.0% from estimated breeding values (EBVs) and 4.4% calculated from EBVs between two consecutive generations. Favourable correlated selection responses (estimated from LSMs) were detected for other body traits (12.1%, 14.5%, 10.4%, 15.5% and 13.3% for body length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width and abdominal width, respectively) over three selection generations. Data in the second selection generation showed positive correlated responses for carcass weight traits (8.8%, 8.6% and 8.8% for abdominal weight, skeleton-off weight and telson-off weight, respectively). Data in the third selection generation showed that heritability for body traits were moderate and ranged from 0.06 to 0.11 and 0.11 to 0.22 at weeks 10 and 18, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated at week 10 were not significantly lower than at week 18. Genetic correlations between body traits within age and genetic correlations for body traits between ages were generally high. Overall our results suggest that growth rate responds well to the application of family selection and carcass weight traits can also be improved in parallel, using this approach. Moreover, selection for high growth rate in GFP can be undertaken successfully before full market size has been reached. The outcome of this study was production of an improved culture strain of GFP for the Vietnamese culture industry that will be trialed in real farm production environments to confirm the genetic gains identified in the experimental stock improvement program.

Private hospital emergency departments in Australia : challenges and opportunities

BACKGROUND: Public hospital EDs in Australia have become increasingly congested because of increasing demand and access block. Six per cent of ED patients attend private hospital EDs whereas 45% of the population hold private health insurance. OBJECTIVES: This study describes the patients attending a small selection of four private hospital EDs in Queensland and Victoria, and tests the feasibility of a private ED database. METHODS: De-identified routinely collected patient data were provided by the four participating private hospital and amalgamated into a single data set. RESULT: The mean age of private ED patients was 52 years. Males outnumbered females in all age groups except > 80 years. Attendance was higher on weekends and Mondays, and between 08.00 and 20.00 h. There were 6.6% of the patients triaged as categories 1 and 2, and 60% were categories 4 or 5. There were 36.4% that required hospital admission. Also, 96% of the patients had some kind of insurance. Furthermore, 72% were self-referred and 12% were referred by private medical practitioners. Approximately 25% arrived by ambulance. There were 69% that completed their ED treatment within 4 h. CONCLUSION: This study is the first public description of patients attending private EDs in Australia. Private EDs have a significant role to play in acute medical care and in providing access to private hospitals which could alleviate pressure on public EDs. This study demonstrates the need for consolidated data based on a consistent data set and data dictionary to enable system-wide analysis, benchmarking and evaluation

Producing and maintaining professional identities in early childhood

This study is an inquiry into early childhood teacher professional identities. In Australia, workforce reforms in early childhood include major shifts in qualification requirements that call for a university four-year degree-qualified teacher to be employed in child care. This marks a shift in the early years workforce, where previously there was no such requirement. At the same time as these reforms to quality measures are being implemented, and requiring a substantive up skilling of the workforce, there is a growing body of evidence through recent studies that suggests these same four-year degree-qualified early childhood teachers have an aversion to working in child care. Their preferred employment option is to work in the early years of more formal schooling, not in before-school contexts. This collision of agendas warrants investigation. This inquiry is designed to investigate the site at which advocacy for higher qualification requirements meets early childhood teachers who are reluctant to choose child care as a possible career pathway. The key research question for this study is: How are early childhood teachers’ professional identities currently produced? The work of this thesis is to problematise the early childhood teacher in child care through a particular method of discourse analysis. There are two sets of data. The first was a key early childhood political document that read as a "moment of arising" (Foucault, 1984a, p. 83). It is a political document which was selected for its current influence on the early childhood field, and in particular, workforce reforms that call for four-year degree-qualified teachers to work in before-school contexts, including child care. The second data set was generated through four focus group discussions conducted with preservice early childhood teachers. The document and transcripts of the focus groups were both analysed as text, as conceptualised by Foucault (1981). Foucault’s work spans a number of years and a range of philosophical matters. This thesis draws particularly on Foucault’s writings on discourse, power/knowledge, regimes of truth and resistance. In order to consider the production of early childhood teachers’ professional identities, the study is also informed by identity theorists, who have worked on gender, performativity and investment (Davies, 2004/2006; McNay, 1992; Osgood, 2012; Walkerdine, 1990; Weedon, 1997). The ways in which discourses intersect, compete and collide produce the subject (Foucault, 1981) and, in the case of this inquiry, there are a number of competing discourses at play, which produce the early childhood teacher. These particular theories turn particular lenses on the question of professional identities in early childhood, and such a study calls for the application of particular methodologies. Discourse analysis was used as the methodological framework, and the analysis was informed by Foucauldian concepts of discourse. While Foucault did not prescribe a form of discourse analysis as a method, his writings nonetheless provide a valuable framework for illuminating discursive practices and, in turn, how people are affected, through the shifts and distribution of power (Foucault, 1980a). The treatment used with both data sets involved redescription. For the policy document, a technique for reading document-as-text applied a genealogical approach (Foucault, 1984a). For the focus groups, the process of redescription (Rorty, 1989) involved reading talk-as-text. As a method, redescription involves describing "lots and lots of things in new ways until you have created a pattern of linguistic behaviour which will tempt the new generation to adopt it" (Rorty, 1989, p. 9). The development and application of categories (Davies, 2004/2006) built on a poststructuralist theoretical framework and the literature review informed the data analysis method of discourse analysis. Irony provided a rhetorical and playful tool (Haraway, 1991; Rorty, 1989), to look to how seemingly opposing discourses are held together. This opens a space to collapse binary thinking and consider seemingly contradictory terms in a way in which both terms are possible and both are true. Irony resists the choice of one or the other being right, and holds the opposites together in tension. The thesis concludes with proposals for new, ironic categories, which work to bring together seemingly opposing terms, located at sites in the field of early childhood where discourses compete, collide and intersect to produce and maintain early childhood teacher professional identities. The process of mapping these discourses goes some way to investigating the complexities about identities and career choices of early childhood teachers. The category of "the cost of loving" captures the collision between care/love, inherent in child care, and new discourses of investment/economics. Investment/economics has not completely replaced care/love, and these apparent opposites were not read as a binary because both are necessary and both are true (Haraway, 1991). They are held together in tension to produce early childhood teacher professional identities. The policy document under scrutiny was New Directions, released in 2007 by the then opposition ALP leader, Kevin Rudd. The claim was made strongly that the "economic prosperity" of Australia relies on investment in early childhood. The arguments to invest are compelling and the neuroscience/brain research/child development together with economic/investment discourses demand that early childhood is funding is increased. The intersection of these discourses produces professional identities of early childhood teachers as a necessary part of the country’s economy, and thus, worthy of high status. The child care sector and work in child care settings are necessary, with children and the early childhood teacher playing key roles in the economy of the nation. Through New Directions it becomes sayable (Foucault, 1972/1989) that the work the early childhood teacher performs is legitimated and valued. The children are produced as "economic units". A focus on what children are able to contribute to the future economy of the nation re-positions children and produces these "smart productive citizens", making future economic contribution. The early childhood teacher is produced through this image of a child and "the cost of loving" is emphasised. A number of these categories were produced through the readings of the document-as text and the talk-as-text. Two ironic categories were read in the analysis of the transcripts of the focus group discussions, when treated as talk-as-text data: the early childhood teacher as a "heroic victim"; and the early childhood teacher as a "glorified babysitter". This thesis raises new questions about professional identities in early childhood. These new questions might go some way to prompt re-thinking of some government policy, as well as some aspects of early childhood teacher education course design. The images of children and images of child care provide provocations to consider preservice teacher education course design. In particular, how child care, as one of the early childhood contexts, is located, conceptualised and spoken throughout the course. Consideration by course designers and teacher educators of what discourses are privileged in course content —what discourses are diminished or silenced—would go some way to reconceptualising child care within preservice teacher education and challenging dominant ways of speaking child care, and work in child care. This inquiry into early childhood teachers’ professional identities has gone some way to exploring the complexities around the early childhood teacher in child care. It is anticipated that the significance of this study will thus have immediate applicably and relevance for the Australian early childhood policy landscape. The early childhood field is in a state of rapid change, and this inquiry has examined some of the disconnects between policy and practice. Awareness of the discourses that are in play in the field will continue to allow space for conversations that challenge dominant assumptions about child care, work in child care and ways of being an early childhood teacher in child care.

Quantitative genetic parameter estimates for body and carcass traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest weight in Vietnam

We estimated the heritability and correlations between body and carcass weight traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (GFP) (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest body weight in Vietnam. The data set consisted of 18,387 body and 1,730 carcass records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Variance and covariance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Across generations, estimates of heritability for body and carcass weight traits were moderate and ranged from 0.14 to 0.19 and 0.17 to 0.21, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated for females were significantly higher than for males whereas carcass weight trait heritabilities estimated for females and males were not significantly different (P>. 0.05). Maternal effects for body traits accounted for 4 to 5% of the total variance and were greater in females than in males. Genetic correlations among body traits were generally high in the mixed sexes. Genetic correlations between body and carcass weight traits were also high. Although some issues remain regarding the best statistical model to be fitted to GFP data, our results suggest that selection for high harvest body weight based on breeding values estimated by fitting an animal model to the data can significantly improve mean body and carcass weight in GFP.

Timing, origin and emplacement dynamics of mass flows offshore of SE Montserrat in the last 110 ka : implications for landslide and tsunami hazards, eruption history, and volcanic island evolution

Mass flows on volcanic islands generated by volcanic lava dome collapse and by larger-volume flank collapse can be highly dangerous locally and may generate tsunamis that threaten a wider area. It is therefore important to understand their frequency, emplacement dynamics, and relationship to volcanic eruption cycles. The best record of mass flow on volcanic islands may be found offshore, where most material is deposited and where intervening hemipelagic sediment aids dating. Here we analyze what is arguably the most comprehensive sediment core data set collected offshore from a volcanic island. The cores are located southeast of Montserrat, on which the Soufriere Hills volcano has been erupting since 1995. The cores provide a record of mass flow events during the last 110 thousand years. Older mass flow deposits differ significantly from those generated by the repeated lava dome collapses observed since 1995. The oldest mass flow deposit originated through collapse of the basaltic South Soufriere Hills at 103-110 ka, some 20-30 ka after eruptions formed this volcanic center. A ∼1.8 km3 blocky debris avalanche deposit that extends from a chute in the island shelf records a particularly deep-seated failure. It likely formed from a collapse of almost equal amounts of volcanic edifice and coeval carbonate shelf, emplacing a mixed bioclastic-andesitic turbidite in a complex series of stages. This study illustrates how volcanic island growth and collapse involved extensive, large-volume submarine mass flows with highly variable composition. Runout turbidites indicate that mass flows are emplaced either in multiple stages or as single events.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies novel multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci

Objective: To perform a 1-stage meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility and to explore functional consequences of new susceptibility loci. Methods: We synthesized 7 MS GWAS. Each data set was imputed using HapMap phase II, and a per single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) meta-analysis was performed across the 7 data sets. We explored RNA expression data using a quantitative trait analysis in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of 228 subjects with demyelinating disease. Results: We meta-analyzed 2,529,394 unique SNPs in 5,545 cases and 12,153 controls. We identified 3 novel susceptibility alleles: rs170934T at 3p24.1 (odds ratio [OR], 1.17; p ¼ 1.6 � 10�8) near EOMES, rs2150702G in the second intron of MLANA on chromosome 9p24.1 (OR, 1.16; p ¼ 3.3 � 10�8), and rs6718520A in an intergenic region on chromosome 2p21, with THADA as the nearest flanking gene (OR, 1.17; p ¼ 3.4 � 10�8). The 3 new loci do not have a strong cis effect on RNA expression in PBMCs. Ten other susceptibility loci had a suggestive p < 1 � 10�6, some of these loci have evidence of association in other inflammatory diseases (ie, IL12B, TAGAP, PLEK, and ZMIZ1). Interpretation: We have performed a meta-analysis of GWAS in MS that more than doubles the size of previous gene discovery efforts and highlights 3 novel MS susceptibility loci. These and additional loci with suggestive evidence of association are excellent candidates for further investigations to refine and validate their role in the genetic architecture of MS.

Multi-gene phylogenetic analysis of south-east Asian pest members of the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae) does not support current taxonomy

Bactrocera dorsalis sensu stricto, B. papayae, B. philippinensis and B. carambolae are serious pest fruit fly species of the B. dorsalis complex that predominantly occur in south-east Asia and the Pacific. Identifying molecular diagnostics has proven problematic for these four taxa, a situation that cofounds biosecurity and quarantine efforts and which may be the result of at least some of these taxa representing the same biological species. We therefore conducted a phylogenetic study of these four species (and closely related outgroup taxa) based on the individuals collected from a wide geographic range; sequencing six loci (cox1, nad4-3′, CAD, period, ITS1, ITS2) for approximately 20 individuals from each of 16 sample sites. Data were analysed within maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic frameworks for individual loci and concatenated data sets for which we applied multiple monophyly and species delimitation tests. Species monophyly was measured by clade support, posterior probability or bootstrap resampling for Bayesian and likelihood analyses respectively, Rosenberg's reciprocal monophyly measure, P(AB), Rodrigo's (P(RD)) and the genealogical sorting index, gsi. We specifically tested whether there was phylogenetic support for the four 'ingroup' pest species using a data set of multiple individuals sampled from a number of populations. Based on our combined data set, Bactrocera carambolae emerges as a distinct monophyletic clade, whereas B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis are unresolved. These data add to the growing body of evidence that B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis are the same biological species, which poses consequences for quarantine, trade and pest management.

Genetic response to combined family selection for improved mean harvest weight in giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) in Vietnam

We estimated genetic changes in body and carcass weight traits in a giant freshwater prawn (GFP) (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) population selected for increased body weight at harvest in Vietnam. The data set consisted of 18,387 individual body and 1730 carcass weight records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Average selection response (per generation) in body weight at harvest (transformed to square root) estimated as the difference between the Selection line and the Control group was 7.4% calculated from least squares mean (LSMs), 7.0% from estimated breeding values (EBVs) and 4.4% calculated from EBVs between two consecutive generations. Favorable correlated selection responses (estimated from LSMs) were found for other body traits including: total length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width, and abdominal width (12.1%, 14.5%, 10.4%, 15.5% and 13.3% over three selection generations, respectively). Data in the second generation of selection showed positive correlated responses for carcass weight traits including: abdominal weight, exoskeleton-off weight, and telson-off weight of 8.8%, 8.6% and 8.8%, respectively. We conclude that body weight at harvest responded well to the application of combined (between and within) family selection and correlated responses in carcass weight traits were favorable.

A closed-form approximation for pricing temperature-based weather derivatives

This paper develops analytical distributions of temperature indices on which temperature derivatives are written. If the deviations of daily temperatures from their expected values are modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with timevarying variance, then the distributions of the temperature index on which the derivative is written is the sum of truncated, correlated Gaussian deviates. The key result of this paper is to provide an analytical approximation to the distribution of this sum, thus allowing the accurate computation of payoffs without the need for any simulation. A data set comprising average daily temperature spanning over a hundred years for four Australian cities is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach for estimating the payoffs to temperature derivatives. It is demonstrated that expected payoffs computed directly from historical records are a particularly poor approach to the problem when there are trends in underlying average daily temperature. It is shown that the proposed analytical approach is superior to historical pricing.

Empirical evaluation of brisbane macroscopic fundamental diagram

The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) relates space-mean density and flow, and the existence with dynamic features was confirmed in congested urban network with real data set from loop detectors and taxi probes. Since the MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performances, it gives foundations for perimeter control strategies and an area traffic state estimation enabling area-based network control. However, limited works have been reported on real world example from signalised arterial network. This paper fuses data from multiple sources (Bluetooth, Loops and Signals) and develops a framework for the development of the MFD for Brisbane. Existence of the MFD in Brisbane network is confirmed. Different MFDs (from whole network and several sub regions) are evaluated to discover the spatial partitioning in network performance representation.

Making the train : re-conceptualising accessibility for intra-urban rail travel

Australian authorities have set ambitious policy objectives to shift Australia’s current transport profile of heavy reliance on private motor cars to sustainable modes. Improving accessibility of public transport is a central component of that objective. Past studies on accessibility to public transport focus on walking time and/or waiting time. However, travellers’ perceptions of the interface leg journeys may depend not only on these direct and tangible factors but also on social and psychological factors. This paper extends previous research that identified five salient perspectives of rail access by means of a statement sorting activity and cluster analysis with a small sample of rail passengers in three Australian cities (Zuniga et al, 2013). This study collects a new data set including 144 responses from Brisbane and Melbourne to an online survey made up of a Likert-scaled statement sorting exercise and questionnaire. It employs factor analysis to examine the statement rankings and uncovers seven underlying factors in the exploratory manner, i.e., station, safety, access, transfer, service attitude, traveler’s physical activity levels, and environmental concern. Respondents from groups stratified by rail use frequency are compared in terms of their scores of those factors. Findings from this study indicate a need to re-conceptualize accessibility to intra-urban rail travel in agreement with current policy agenda, and to target behavioral intervention to multiple dimensions of accessibility influencing passengers’ travel choices. Arguments in this paper are not limited to intra-urban rail transit, but may also be relevant to public transport in general.