Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Conceptualising the virtual and the posthuman

This article aims to explore the relations between technology and the subject. With new media intensifying the provisionality of discursive structures and in turn embodied experiences, questions pertaining to virtuality have become vital, particularly since Western society's increasing reliance on technologies now permeates our everyday practices. While many theorists often resort to a reification of the subject when conceptualising the posthuman condition, this analysis will recover the notion of embodiment in order to avoid such technological determinism. Tracing this complexity in contemporary texts can be achieved through various means. Here, the focus will remain on how narrative frameworks can create new possibilities for understanding and interpreting shifting subjectivities in the digital age. To explore this, I shall provide an analysis of a contemporary film, Being John Malkovich, which has been chosen due to its unexpected success at the box office, indicating how finely attuned the film is to contemporary concerns.

Transformational leadership, corporate cultism and the spirituality paradigm: An unholy trinity in the workplace?

Leadership is a perennially popular topic in the academic and practitioner literature on management. In particular, the past twenty years have witnessed an explosive growth of interest in what has been termed 'transformational leadership' (henceforth, TL). The theory is closely linked to the growth in what has been defined as corporate culturism - an emphasis on the importance of cohereat cultures, as a means of securing competitive advantage. This article outlines the central components of TL theory, and subjects the concept to a critical analysis. In particular, similarities are identified between the components concerned and the characteristics of leadership practice in organizations generally defined as cults. This connection has been previously unremarked in the literature. These similarities are comprehensively reviewed. Trends towards what can be defined as corporate cultism in modem management practice are also discussed. We conclude that TL models are overly concerned with the achievement of corporate cohesion to the detriment of internal dissent Such dissent is a vital ingredient of effective decision-making. It is suggested that more inclusive and participatory models of the leadership process are required.

On the importance function in splitting simulation

The splitting method is a simulation technique for the estimation of very small probabilities. In this technique, the sample paths are split into multiple copies, at various stages in the simulation. Of vital importance to the efficiency of the method is the Importance Function (IF). This function governs the placement of the thresholds or surfaces at which the paths are split. We derive a characterisation of the optimal IF and show that for multi-dimensional models the natural choice for the IF is usually not optimal. We also show how nearly optimal splitting surfaces can be derived or simulated using reverse time analysis. Our numerical experiments illustrate that by using the optimal IF, one can obtain a significant improvement in simulation efficiency.

Indirect evidence of density-dependent population regulation in Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari : Ixodidae), an ectoparasite of reptiles

The extent to which density-dependent processes regulate natural populations is the subject of an ongoing debate. We contribute evidence to this debate showing that density-dependent processes influence the population dynamics of the ectoparasite Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari: Ixodidae), a tick species that infests reptiles in Australia. The first piece of evidence comes from an unusually long-term dataset on the distribution of ticks among individual hosts. If density-dependent processes are influencing either host mortality or vital rates of the parasite population, and those distributions can be approximated with negative binomial distributions, then general host-parasite models predict that the aggregation coefficient of the parasite distribution will increase with the average intensity of infections. We fit negative binomial distributions to the frequency distributions of ticks on hosts, and find that the estimated aggregation coefficient k increases with increasing average tick density. This pattern indirectly implies that one or more vital rates of the tick population must be changing with increasing tick density, because mortality rates of the tick's main host, the sleepy lizard, Tiliqua rugosa, are unaffected by changes in tick burdens. Our second piece of evidence is a re-analysis of experimental data on the attachment success of individual ticks to lizard hosts using generalized linear modelling. The probability of successful engorgement decreases with increasing numbers of ticks attached to a host. This is direct evidence of a density-dependent process that could lead to an increase in the aggregation coefficient of tick distributions described earlier. The population-scale increase in the aggregation coefficient is indirect evidence of a density-dependent process or processes sufficiently strong to produce a population-wide pattern, and thus also likely to influence population regulation. The direct observation of a density-dependent process is evidence of at least part of the responsible mechanism.

Use of a thermodilution catheter to measure core body temperature, central venous pressure and cardiac output during anaesthesia and surgery in the dog

The use of thermodilution and other methods of monitoring in dogs during surgery and critical care was evaluated. Six Greyhounds were anaesthetised and then instrumented by placing a thermodilution catheter into the pulmonary artery via the jugular vein. A catheter in the dorsal pedal artery also permitted direct measurement of arterial pressures. Core body temperature (degreesC) and central venous pressure (mmHg) were measured, while cardiac output (mL/min/kg) and mean arterial pressure (mmHg) were calculated. A mid-line surgical incision was performed and the physiological parameters were monitored for a total of two hours. All physiological parameters generally declined, although significant increases (P<0.05) were noted for cardiac output following surgical incision. Central venous pressure was maintained at approximately 0mmHg by controlling an infusion of sterile saline. Core body temperature decreased from 37.1+/-0.6degreesC (once instrumented) to 36.6+/-0.60degreesC (at the end of the study), despite warming using heating pads. Physiological parameters indicative of patient viability will generally decline during surgery without intervention. This study describes an approach that can be undertaken in veterinary hospitals to accurately monitor vital signs in surgical and critical care patients.

Transition to raloxifene with and without low-dose estrogen therapy in postmenopausal women: effects on serum lipids and fibrinogen - a pilot study

Objective To compare the effects of transferring from low-dose transdermal estrogen to raloxifene (RLX), with a phase of alternate-day RLX therapy with or without low-dose transdermal estrogen, on serum lipids and fibrinogen in postmenopausal women previously administered estrogen plus progestogen therapy. Methods Sixty postmenopausal women (mean age 55 years) were randomized to one of two treatment groups: RLX + low-dose transdermal estrogen (RLX + E) or RLX + placebo. The study consisted of four 8-week phases: phase I (all subjects low-dose transdermal estrogen 25 mug/day), phase II (double-blind RLX 60 mg every 2nd day in combination with either low-dose transdermal estrogen or placebo), phase III (all subjects RLX 60 mg every 2nd day + placebo) and phase IV (all subjects RLX 60 mg/day + placebo). Results No significant differences existed between groups for baseline measurements prior to phase I. In phase I, for all subjects combined, total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotem cholesterol both showed a significant increase (median increase of 0.2 mmol/l, p = 0.008 and 0.4 mmol/l, p < 0.001, respectively), while triglycerides decreased significantly (median decrease of 0.2 mmol/l, p < 0.001). For the primary analysis (phase II to phase IV), the mean change from baseline observations showed no significant differences between the therapy groups for serum lipids, fibrinogen, vital signs or weight. In the comparison phase (phase II), changes in serum lipids, fibrinogen, vital signs and weight were not significantly different between groups. Conclusion Gradual conversion to RLX from low-dose transdermal estrogen, with a phase of alternate-day RLX therapy with or without low-dose transdermal estrogen, does not have any effect on the serum lipid profile or fibrinogen level.

Editorial

The year 2003 marks the 30th anniversary of The Australian Journal of Indigenous Education (AJIE) and coincides with the re-launching of the journal as a peer reviewed research journal.Beginning life in 1973 as The Aboriginal Child at School, AJIE has played a vital role in raising awareness of educational issues for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples; fostering debate amongst researchers, government representatives and community groups; and sharing stories of success between both Indigenous and non- Indigenous practitioners positioned in the broad area of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander education. The dialogue which has taken place in AJIE over the past 30 years maps out the social, political and cultural history of Indigenous education in Australia, and draws attention to the shifting paradigms,problems and practical outcomes.

Cytotoxic iron chelators: Characterization of the structure, solution chemistry and redox activity of ligands and iron complexes of the di-2-pyridyl ketone isonicotinoyl hydrazone (HPKIH) analogues

Di-2-pyridyl ketone isonicotinoyl hydrazone (HPKIH) and a range of its analogues comprise a series of monobasic acids that are capable of binding iron (Fe) as tridentate (N,N,O) ligands. Recently, we have shown that these chelators are highly cytotoxic, but show selective activity against cancer cells. Particularly interesting was the fact that cytotoxicity of the HPKIH analogues is maintained even after complexation with Fe. To understand the potent anti-tumor activity of these compounds, we have fully characterized their chemical properties. This included examination of the solution chemistry and X-ray crystal structures of both the ligands and Fe complexes from this class and the ability of these complexes to mediate redox reactions. Potentiometric titrations demonstrated that all chelators are present predominantly in their charge-neutral form at physiological pH (7.4), allowing access across biological membranes. Keto-enol tautomerism of the ligands was identified, with the tautomers exhibiting distinctly different protonation constants. Interestingly, the chelators form low-spin (diamagnetic) divalent Fe complexes in solution. The chelators form distorted octahedral complexes with Fe-II, with two tridentate ligands arranged in a meridional fashion. Electrochemistry of the Fe complexes in both aqueous and non-aqueous solutions revealed that the complexes are oxidized to their ferric form at relatively high potentials, but this oxidation is coupled to a rapid reaction with water to form a hydrated (carbinolamine) derivative, leading to irreversible electrochemistry. The Fe complexes of the HPKIH analogues caused marked DNA degradation in the presence of hydrogen peroxide. This observation confirms that Fe complexes from the HPKIH series mediate Fenton chemistry and do not repel DNA. Collectively, studies on the solution chemistry and structure of these HPKIH analogues indicate that they can bind cellular Fe and enhance its redox activity, resulting in oxidative damage to vital biomolecules.

Gest??o da informa????o

Cada vez mais, a integra????o das partes componentes de um processo se imp??e como vital, associada a necessidade de que as informa????es operacionais e gerenciais estejam dispon??veis ?? tempo e ?? hora, para servirem de apoio ?? tomada de decis??es gerenciais, com a efic??cia e a velocidade que s??o exigidas nos dias de hoje. Neste trabalho, est??o exemplificados como, atrav??s da integra????o dos processos, apoiados por um Sistema de Gest??o da Informa????o, elimina-se trabalhos redundantes, facilita-se o preenchimento de documentos, aprimora-se o fluxo dos procedimentos, disponibilizando, em tempo real, informa????es sobre o andamento dos servi??os. Este enfoque se aplica a qualquer servi??o que envolva diversas ??reas atrav??s da integra????o dos processos distribu??dos ou implantando novos procedimentos setoriais apoiados por um suporte informatizado espec??fico. Obedecendo ??s caracter??sticas particulares de cada ??rea envolvida os Sistemas integrados ou setoriais promovem um perfeito controle dos processos distribu??dos. A tomada de decis??es ?? agilizada e tem perfeito embasamento nas informa????es que est??o sempre dispon??veis no momento em que se fizerem necess??rias

O administrador p??blico tipo delta para o s??culo 21

O artigo estuda um aspecto da reforma do Estado que, segundo o autor, tem sido sistematicamente negligenciado pelas atuais propostas que focalizam o modelo da administra????o gerencial. Trata-se das fun????es vitais do governo de tomar decis??es cr??ticas e adotar pol??ticas diante das mudan??as provocadas pela revolu????o global. Segundo Dror, as tarefas de alto comando (high-order tasks) de definir trajet??rias e as novas formas de governan??a exigem um ajuste significativo do governo central. Este ajuste refere-se, principalmente, ?? concep????o e ao desenvolvimento de um novo padr??o de funcion??rios do primeiro escal??o p??blico, o qual contribuiria com conhecimento e perspectivas para enfrentar as tarefas de alto comando. O autor estabelece uma tipologia para caraterizar a evolu????o do perfil do servi??o p??blico, marcando suas fases hist??ricas: a) tipo alpha (status atribu??do, fus??o de pap??is pol??ticos e administrativos); b) tipo beta (compra de cargos governamentais) e c) tipo gamma (quase profissionalismo). O novo funcion??rio s??nior, do tipo delta, se concentraria nas quest??es de ordem estrat??gica, deixando as fun????es gerenciais para servidores do tipo gamma e para os servi??os t??cnicos. Ap??s uma breve an??lise, Dror conclui que o funcionalismo p??blico de primeiro escal??o, na maioria dos pa??ses (com exce????o de alguns pa??ses do Sudeste Asi??tico), encontra-se obsoleto, com base profissional inadequada e capacidade insuficiente para lidar com escolhas cr??ticas.

Efeito da geometria dos dentes da serra de fita na produção de madeira serrada de eucalipto

O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar o efeito dos parâmetros que compõem os dentes de serra de fita na produção e qualidade da madeira serrada de eucalipto. Analisou-se o efeito de dois passos de dentes (57,15 mm e passo variado: 50,8 - 50,8 - 50,39 - 50,71 - 60,03 - 60,35 mm), de dois ângulos de ataque (26 e 270) e de duas alturas (22 e 25,4 mm) em duas classes diamétricas (25 a 34 cm e 35 e 47 cm) de clones de híbridos Eucalyptus grandis x Eucalyptus urophylla com 15 anos de idade. Não houve ganho de qualidade quando se trabalhou com passo variado. As lâminas de serra que possuíam ângulo de ataque de 270 e passo único tanto com altura do dente de 22 mm quanto com 25,4 mm geraram desvios acima da espessura-meta. A menor variação em torno da espessura-meta foi obtida quando se utilizaram lâminas de serra de ângulo de ataque de 270 e altura do dente de 25,4 mm. O maior desvio ocorreu quando o desdobro foi efetuado com passo variado e ângulo de ataque de 260. A utilização de passo variado, de modo geral, foi o que apresentou maiores desvios na espessura das tábuas em relação à espessura desejada.

Novel neutral iron(II) isocyanide maleonitrile dithiolate [Fe(S2C2(CN)2)(t-BuNC) 4] compound

FeBr2 reacts with the S2C2(CN)22- ion (1:1 ratio) in the presence of an excess of t-BuNC in THF to give the mixed ligand [Fe(S2C2(CN)2)(t-BuNC) 4] compound. This neutral product with a formal oxidation state of two for the iron atom was characterized by conductivity measurements, and, i.r., Mössbauer, 13C and 1H n.m.r. spectroscopy. There is a Fe-C p back-donation strengthened towards isocyanide ligands, according to the data of 13C, 1H n.m.r. and Mössbauer spectroscopy.

O sentido de ser educadora das/ nas brinquedotecas do hospital infantil de Vitória/ ES: um estudo a partir dos conceitos de experiência, narrativa e cuidado

O ato de brincar tem sido considerado como vital à saúde mental, emocional, física e intelectual do ser humano. Todos esses elementos são vividos no brincar de modo indissociado. A brinquedoteca Hospitalar possibilita melhores condições para a recuperação da criança internada, minimizando situações traumatizantes e tornando a sua estadia no hospital mais alegre. Este trabalho propõe um estudo de inspiração fenomenológico existencial OBJETIVANDO: desvelar - o sentido de ser educadora nas brinquedotecas do Hospital Infantil de Vitória/ ES, focando as experiências delas narradas e cuidadosamente vividas (e ou experienciadas) nos modos subjetivos delas serem no mundo objetivo, vivências que serão narradas por elas nesse espaço-tempo de ludicidade que se presta à Pedagogia Hospitalar nas suas vertentes de atendimentos escolares (Educação Especial numa perspectiva inclusiva) e não-escolares donde a Pedagogia hospitalar compõe um ramo da Pedagogia Social, oferecendo assim atendimentos às crianças e jovens especialmente, mas não só (podendo abarcar adultos e idosos). MARCO TEÓRICO: o termo teórico central do nosso marco teórico é Cuidado (SORGE), como em BOFF (2012) e WALDOW(1993; 1998; 2006) e Experiência em PINEL (2004;2006) de ser (ter sido) de alguma forma criadora desse espaço-tempo de brincar ( e de estudar) no hospital, confabulando tanto uma Educação Não Escolar (Pedagogia Social) e Escolar (Pedagogia Escolar). A angústia de ser educadora das brinquedotecas pareceu-nos que se constituirá em uma característica imprescindível para a compreensão da sua existência do ser no ofício, bem como sua interação consigo mesmo, com o outro e com o mundo das Brinquedotecas Hospitalares. Entendemos os sentidos da alegria, calma e alegria, coragem e profissionalismo, transform(ação), direito e escolaridade e humanização e dor como elementos que compuseram o complexo mosaico de Cuidado (Sorge) – próprios daquele que se propõe cuidar de si, do outro e das coisas do mundo pelo viés de cuidar.