Runup variability due to time dependence and stochasticity in the beach profiles: two extreme cases of the Spanish coast

Equations for extreme runup worked out from several experimental studies are compared. Infragraviatory oscillations dominate the swash in a dissipative state but not in intermediate - reflective states. Therefore two kinds of equation depending on either significant wave height, H-0, or the Iribarren number, xi(0), should be used. Through a sand bed physical model with a uniform sand bed slope, equations are proposed for both beach states, and results are compared with precedent field and physical model experiments. Once the equations are chosen, the time-longshore variability in a medium - long term time scale of the foreshore slope is evaluated in two extreme cases relating to the Spanish coast. The Salinas beach on the North coast (Bay of Biscay) displayed a permanent dissipative beach state with small variations in the beach foreshore slope both along the shore and in time, so foreshore slope deviations in a medium-long term period were irrelevant and extreme runup is predicted with the wave height worked out from the design return period. Peniscola beach on the East coast (Mediterranean sea) displayed an intermediate state. If only time variations are analysed, variations in determining extreme runup are irrelevant. In contrast, significant differences were found when the longshore variations were studied in this Mediterranean beach.

A model for turbulent combustion simulation of large scale hydrogen explosions

El agotamiento, la ausencia o, simplemente, la incertidumbre sobre la cantidad de las reservas de combustibles fósiles se añaden a la variabilidad de los precios y a la creciente inestabilidad en la cadena de aprovisionamiento para crear fuertes incentivos para el desarrollo de fuentes y vectores energéticos alternativos. El atractivo de hidrógeno como vector energético es muy alto en un contexto que abarca, además, fuertes inquietudes por parte de la población sobre la contaminación y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Debido a su excelente impacto ambiental, la aceptación pública del nuevo vector energético dependería, a priori, del control de los riesgos asociados su manipulación y almacenamiento. Entre estos, la existencia de un innegable riesgo de explosión aparece como el principal inconveniente de este combustible alternativo. Esta tesis investiga la modelización numérica de explosiones en grandes volúmenes, centrándose en la simulación de la combustión turbulenta en grandes dominios de cálculo en los que la resolución que es alcanzable está fuertemente limitada. En la introducción, se aborda una descripción general de los procesos de explosión. Se concluye que las restricciones en la resolución de los cálculos hacen necesario el modelado de los procesos de turbulencia y de combustión. Posteriormente, se realiza una revisión crítica de las metodologías disponibles tanto para turbulencia como para combustión, que se lleva a cabo señalando las fortalezas, deficiencias e idoneidad de cada una de las metodologías. Como conclusión de esta investigación, se obtiene que la única estrategia viable para el modelado de la combustión, teniendo en cuenta las limitaciones existentes, es la utilización de una expresión que describa la velocidad de combustión turbulenta en función de distintos parámetros. Este tipo de modelos se denominan Modelos de velocidad de llama turbulenta y permiten cerrar una ecuación de balance para la variable de progreso de combustión. Como conclusión también se ha obtenido, que la solución más adecuada para la simulación de la turbulencia es la utilización de diferentes metodologías para la simulación de la turbulencia, LES o RANS, en función de la geometría y de las restricciones en la resolución de cada problema particular. Sobre la base de estos hallazgos, el crea de un modelo de combustión en el marco de los modelos de velocidad de la llama turbulenta. La metodología propuesta es capaz de superar las deficiencias existentes en los modelos disponibles para aquellos problemas en los que se precisa realizar cálculos con una resolución moderada o baja. Particularmente, el modelo utiliza un algoritmo heurístico para impedir el crecimiento del espesor de la llama, una deficiencia que lastraba el célebre modelo de Zimont. Bajo este enfoque, el énfasis del análisis se centra en la determinación de la velocidad de combustión, tanto laminar como turbulenta. La velocidad de combustión laminar se determina a través de una nueva formulación capaz de tener en cuenta la influencia simultánea en la velocidad de combustión laminar de la relación de equivalencia, la temperatura, la presión y la dilución con vapor de agua. La formulación obtenida es válida para un dominio de temperaturas, presiones y dilución con vapor de agua más extenso de cualquiera de las formulaciones previamente disponibles. Por otra parte, el cálculo de la velocidad de combustión turbulenta puede ser abordado mediante el uso de correlaciones que permiten el la determinación de esta magnitud en función de distintos parámetros. Con el objetivo de seleccionar la formulación más adecuada, se ha realizado una comparación entre los resultados obtenidos con diversas expresiones y los resultados obtenidos en los experimentos. Se concluye que la ecuación debida a Schmidt es la más adecuada teniendo en cuenta las condiciones del estudio. A continuación, se analiza la importancia de las inestabilidades de la llama en la propagación de los frentes de combustión. Su relevancia resulta significativa para mezclas pobres en combustible en las que la intensidad de la turbulencia permanece moderada. Estas condiciones son importantes dado que son habituales en los accidentes que ocurren en las centrales nucleares. Por ello, se lleva a cabo la creación de un modelo que permita estimar el efecto de las inestabilidades, y en concreto de la inestabilidad acústica-paramétrica, en la velocidad de propagación de llama. El modelado incluye la derivación matemática de la formulación heurística de Bauwebs et al. para el cálculo de la incremento de la velocidad de combustión debido a las inestabilidades de la llama, así como el análisis de la estabilidad de las llamas con respecto a una perturbación cíclica. Por último, los resultados se combinan para concluir el modelado de la inestabilidad acústica-paramétrica. Tras finalizar esta fase, la investigación se centro en la aplicación del modelo desarrollado en varios problemas de importancia para la seguridad industrial y el posterior análisis de los resultados y la comparación de los mismos con los datos experimentales correspondientes. Concretamente, se abordo la simulación de explosiones en túneles y en contenedores, con y sin gradiente de concentración y ventilación. Como resultados generales, se logra validar el modelo confirmando su idoneidad para estos problemas. Como última tarea, se ha realizado un analisis en profundidad de la catástrofe de Fukushima-Daiichi. El objetivo del análisis es determinar la cantidad de hidrógeno que explotó en el reactor número uno, en contraste con los otros estudios sobre el tema que se han centrado en la determinación de la cantidad de hidrógeno generado durante el accidente. Como resultado de la investigación, se determinó que la cantidad más probable de hidrogeno que fue consumida durante la explosión fue de 130 kg. Es un hecho notable el que la combustión de una relativamente pequeña cantidad de hidrogeno pueda causar un daño tan significativo. Esta es una muestra de la importancia de este tipo de investigaciones. Las ramas de la industria para las que el modelo desarrollado será de interés abarca la totalidad de la futura economía de hidrógeno (pilas de combustible, vehículos, almacenamiento energético, etc) con un impacto especial en los sectores del transporte y la energía nuclear, tanto para las tecnologías de fisión y fusión. ABSTRACT The exhaustion, absolute absence or simply the uncertainty on the amount of the reserves of fossil fuels sources added to the variability of their prices and the increasing instability and difficulties on the supply chain are strong incentives for the development of alternative energy sources and carriers. The attractiveness of hydrogen in a context that additionally comprehends concerns on pollution and emissions is very high. Due to its excellent environmental impact, the public acceptance of the new energetic vector will depend on the risk associated to its handling and storage. Fromthese, the danger of a severe explosion appears as the major drawback of this alternative fuel. This thesis investigates the numerical modeling of large scale explosions, focusing on the simulation of turbulent combustion in large domains where the resolution achievable is forcefully limited. In the introduction, a general description of explosion process is undertaken. It is concluded that the restrictions of resolution makes necessary the modeling of the turbulence and combustion processes. Subsequently, a critical review of the available methodologies for both turbulence and combustion is carried out pointing out their strengths and deficiencies. As a conclusion of this investigation, it appears clear that the only viable methodology for combustion modeling is the utilization of an expression for the turbulent burning velocity to close a balance equation for the combustion progress variable, a model of the Turbulent flame velocity kind. Also, that depending on the particular resolution restriction of each problem and on its geometry the utilization of different simulation methodologies, LES or RANS, is the most adequate solution for modeling the turbulence. Based on these findings, the candidate undertakes the creation of a combustion model in the framework of turbulent flame speed methodology which is able to overcome the deficiencies of the available ones for low resolution problems. Particularly, the model utilizes a heuristic algorithm to maintain the thickness of the flame brush under control, a serious deficiency of the Zimont model. Under the approach utilized by the candidate, the emphasis of the analysis lays on the accurate determination of the burning velocity, both laminar and turbulent. On one side, the laminar burning velocity is determined through a newly developed correlation which is able to describe the simultaneous influence of the equivalence ratio, temperature, steam dilution and pressure on the laminar burning velocity. The formulation obtained is valid for a larger domain of temperature, steam dilution and pressure than any of the previously available formulations. On the other side, a certain number of turbulent burning velocity correlations are available in the literature. For the selection of the most suitable, they have been compared with experiments and ranked, with the outcome that the formulation due to Schmidt was the most adequate for the conditions studied. Subsequently, the role of the flame instabilities on the development of explosions is assessed. Their significance appears to be of importance for lean mixtures in which the turbulence intensity remains moderate. These are important conditions which are typical for accidents on Nuclear Power Plants. Therefore, the creation of a model to account for the instabilities, and concretely, the acoustic parametric instability is undertaken. This encloses the mathematical derivation of the heuristic formulation of Bauwebs et al. for the calculation of the burning velocity enhancement due to flame instabilities as well as the analysis of the stability of flames with respect to a cyclic velocity perturbation. The results are combined to build a model of the acoustic-parametric instability. The following task in this research has been to apply the model developed to several problems significant for the industrial safety and the subsequent analysis of the results and comparison with the corresponding experimental data was performed. As a part of such task simulations of explosions in a tunnel and explosions in large containers, with and without gradient of concentration and venting have been carried out. As a general outcome, the validation of the model is achieved, confirming its suitability for the problems addressed. As a last and final undertaking, a thorough study of the Fukushima-Daiichi catastrophe has been carried out. The analysis performed aims at the determination of the amount of hydrogen participating on the explosion that happened in the reactor one, in contrast with other analysis centered on the amount of hydrogen generated during the accident. As an outcome of the research, it was determined that the most probable amount of hydrogen exploding during the catastrophe was 130 kg. It is remarkable that the combustion of such a small quantity of material can cause tremendous damage. This is an indication of the importance of these types of investigations. The industrial branches that can benefit from the applications of the model developed in this thesis include the whole future hydrogen economy, as well as nuclear safety both in fusion and fission technology.

Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.

Cuticle Structure in Relation to Chemical Composition: Re-assessing the Prevailing Model

The surface of most aerial plant organs is covered with a cuticle that provides protection against multiple stress factors including dehydration. Interest on the nature of this external layer dates back to the beginning of the 19th century and since then, several studies facilitated a better understanding of cuticular chemical composition and structure. The prevailing undertanding of the cuticle as a lipidic, hydrophobic layer which is independent from the epidermal cell wall underneath stems from the concept developed by Brongniart and von Mohl during the first half of the 19th century. Such early investigations on plant cuticles attempted to link chemical composition and structure with the existing technologies, and have not been directly challenged for decades. Beginning with a historical overview about the development of cuticular studies, this review is aimed at critically assessing the information available on cuticle chemical composition and structure, considering studies performed with cuticles and isolated cuticular chemical components. The concept of the cuticle as a lipid layer independent from the cell wall is subsequently challenged, based on the existing literature, and on new findings pointing toward the cell wall nature of this layer, also providing examples of different leaf cuticle structures. Finally, the need for a re-assessment of the chemical and structural nature of the plant cuticle is highlighted, considering its cell wall nature and variability among organs, species, developmental stages, and biotic and abiotic factors during plant growth.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

A mouse model for X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy

X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD) is a peroxisomal disorder with impaired β-oxidation of very long chain fatty acids (VLCFAs) and reduced function of peroxisomal very long chain fatty acyl-CoA synthetase (VLCS) that leads to severe and progressive neurological disability. The X-ALD gene, identified by positional cloning, encodes a peroxisomal membrane protein (adrenoleukodystrophy protein; ALDP) that belongs to the ATP binding cassette transporter protein superfamily. Mutational analyses and functional studies of the X-ALD gene confirm that it and not VLCS is the gene responsible for X-ALD. Its role in the β-oxidation of VLCFAs and its effect on the function of VLCS are unclear. The complex pathology of X-ALD and the extreme variability of its clinical phenotypes are also unexplained. To facilitate understanding of X-ALD pathophysiology, we developed an X-ALD mouse model by gene targeting. The X-ALD mouse exhibits reduced β-oxidation of VLCFAs, resulting in significantly elevated levels of saturated VLCFAs in total lipids from all tissues measured and in cholesterol esters from adrenal glands. Lipid cleft inclusions were observed in adrenocortical cells of X-ALD mice under the electron microscope. No neurological involvement has been detected in X-ALD mice up to 6 months. We conclude that X-ALD mice exhibit biochemical defects equivalent to those found in human X-ALD and thus provide an experimental system for testing therapeutic intervention.

The crystal structure of the Rev binding element of HIV-1 reveals novel base pairing and conformational variability

The crystal and molecular structure of an RNA duplex corresponding to the high affinity Rev protein binding element (RBE) has been determined at 2.1-Å resolution. Four unique duplexes are present in the crystal, comprising two structural variants. In each duplex, the RNA double helix consists of an annealed 12-mer and 14-mer that form an asymmetric internal loop consisting of G-G and G-A noncanonical base pairs and a flipped-out uridine. The 12-mer strand has an A-form conformation, whereas the 14-mer strand is distorted to accommodate the bulges and noncanonical base pairing. In contrast to the NMR model of the unbound RBE, an asymmetric G-G pair with N2-N7 and N1-O6 hydrogen bonding, is formed in each helix. The G-A base pairing agrees with the NMR structure in one structural variant, but forms a novel water-mediated pair in the other. A backbone flip and reorientation of the G-G base pair is required to assume the RBE conformation present in the NMR model of the complex between the RBE and the Rev peptide.

Microsatellite variability and genetic distances.

We analyze the within- and between-population dynamics of the distribution of the number of repeats at multiple microsatellite DNA loci subject to stepwise mutation. Analytical expressions for moments up to the fourth order within a locus and the variance of between-locus variance at mutation-drift equilibrium have been obtained. These statistics may be used to test the appropriateness of the one-step mutation model and to detect between-locus variation in the mutation rate. Published data are compatible with the one-step mutation model, although they do not reject the two-step model. Using both multinomial sampling and diffusion approximations for the analysis of the genetic distance introduced by Goldstein et al. [Goldstein, D. B., Linares, A. R., Cavalli-Sforza, L. L. & Feldman, M. W. (1995) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 6723-6727], we show that this distance follows a chi 2 distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of loci when there is no variation in mutation rates among the loci. In the presence of such variation, the variance of the distance is obtained. We conclude that the number of microsatellite loci required for the construction of phylogenetic trees with reliable branch lengths may be several hundred. Also, mutations that change repeat scores by several units, even though extremely rare, may dramatically influence estimates of population parameters.

Investigation on Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and psycho-social-affective adjustment in Italian women with ovarian cancer

INTRODUZIONE: L’integrazione mente-corpo applicata ad un ambito patologico predominante in questi tempi, come il cancro, è il nucleo di questa tesi. Il background teorico entro cui è inserita, è quello della Psiconeuroendocrinoimmunologia (Bottaccioli, 1995) e Psico-Oncologia. Sono state identificate, nella letteratura scientifica, le connessioni tra stati psicologici (mente) e condizioni fisiologiche (corpo). Le variabili emerse come potenzialmente protettive in pazienti che si trovano ad affrontare il cancro sono: il supporto sociale, l’immagine corporea, il coping e la Qualità della Vita, insieme all’indice fisiologico Heart Rate Variability (HRV; Shaffer & Venner, 2013). Il potenziale meccanismo della connessione tra queste variabili potrebbe essere spiegato dall’azione del Nervo Vago, come esposto nella Teoria Polivagale di Stephen Porges (2007; 2009). OBIETTIVI: Gli obiettivi principali di questo studio sono: 1. Valutare l’adattamento psicologico alla patologia in termini di supporto sociale percepito, immagine corporea, coping prevalente e qualità della vita in donne con cancro ovarico; 2. Valutare i valori di base HRV in queste donne; 3. Osservare se livelli più elevati di HRV sono associati ad un migliore adattamento psicologico alla patologia; 4. Osservare se una peggiore percezione dell’immagine corporea e l’utilizzo di strategie di coping disadattive sono associate ad una Qualità della Vita più scarsa. METODO: 38 donne affette da cancro ovarico, al momento della valutazione libere da patologia, sono state reclutate presso la clinica oncologica del reparto di Ginecologia dell’Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Italia. Ad ogni partecipante è stato chiesto di compilare una batteria di test composta da: MSPSS, per la valutazione del supporto sociale percepito; DAS-59, per la valutazione dell’immagine corporea; MAC, per la valutazione delle strategie di coping prevalenti utilizzate verso il cancro; EORTC-QLQ30, per la valutazione della Qualità della Vita. Per ogni partecipante è stato registrato HRV di base utilizzando lo strumento emWave (HeartMath). RISULTATI PRINCIPALI: Rispondendo agli obiettivi 1 e 2, in queste donne si è rilevato una alto tasso di supporto sociale percepito, in particolare ricevuto dalla persona di riferimento. L’area rivelatasi più critica nel supporto sociale è quella degli amici. Per quanto riguarda l’immagine corporea, la porzione di campione dai 30 ai 61 anni, ha delle preoccupazioni globali legate all’immagine corporea paragonabili ai dati provenienti dalla popolazione generale con preoccupazioni riguardo l’aspetto corporeo. Invece, nella porzione di campione dai 61 anni in su, il pattern di disagio verso l’aspetto fisico sembra decisamente peggiorare. Inoltre, in questo campione, si è rilevato un disagio globale verso l’immagine corporea significativamente più alto rispetto ai valori normativi presenti in letteratura riferiti a donne con cancro al seno con o senza mastectomia (rispettivamente t(94)= -4.78; p<0.000001; t(110)= -6.81;p<0.000001). La strategia di coping più utilizzata da queste donne è lo spirito combattivo, seguito dal fatalismo. Questo campione riporta, inoltre, una Qualità della Vita complessivamente soddisfacente, con un buon livello di funzionamento sociale. L’area di funzionalità più critica risulta essere il funzionamento emotivo. Considerando i sintomi prevalenti, i più riferiti sono affaticamento, disturbi del sonno e dolore. Per definire, invece, il pattern HRV, sono stati confrontati i dati del campione con quelli presenti in letteratura, riguardanti donne con cancro ovarico. Il campione valutato in questo studio, ha un HRV SDNN (Me=28.2ms) significativamente più alto dell’altro gruppo. Tuttavia, confrontando il valore medio di questo campione con i dati normativi sulla popolazione sana (Me=50ms), i nostri valori risultano drasticamente più bassi. In ultimo, donne che hanno ricevuto diagnosi di cancro ovarico in età fertile, sembrano avere maggiore HRV, migliore funzionamento emotivo e minore sintomatologia rispetto alle donne che hanno ricevuto diagnosi non in età fertile. Focalizzando l’attenzione sulla ricerca di relazioni significative tra le variabili in esame (obiettivo 3 e 4) sono state trovate numerose correlazioni significative tra: l’età e HRV, supporto percepito , Qualità della Vita; Qualità della Vita e immagine corporea, supporto sociale, strategie di coping; strategie di coping e immagine corporea, supporto sociale; immagine corporea e supporto sociale; HRV e supporto sociale, Qualità della Vita. Per verificare la possibile connessione causale tra le variabili considerate, sono state applicate regressioni lineari semplici e multiple per verificare la bontà del modello teorico. Si è rilevato che HRV è significativamente positivamente influenzata dal supporto percepito dalla figura di riferimento, dal funzionamento di ruolo, dall’immagine corporea totale. Invece risulta negativamente influenzata dal supporto percepito dagli amici e dall’uso di strategie di coping evitanti . La qualità della vita è positivamente influenzata da: l’immagine corporea globale e l’utilizzo del fatalismo come strategia di coping prevalente. Il funzionamento emotivo è influenzato dal supporto percepito dalla figura di riferimento e dal fatalismo. DISCUSSIONI E CONCLUSIONI: Il campione Italiano valutato, sembra essere a metà strada nell’adattamento dello stato psicologico e dell’equilibrio neurovegetativo al cancro. Sicuramente queste donne vivono una vita accettabile, in quanto sopravvissute al cancro, ma sembra anche che portino con sé preoccupazioni e difficoltà, in particolare legate all’accettazione della loro condizione di sopravvissute. Infatti, il migliore adattamento si riscontra nelle donne che hanno avuto peggiori condizioni in partenza: stadio del cancro avanzato, più giovani, con diagnosi ricevuta in età fertile. Pertanto, è possibile suggerire che queste condizioni critiche forzino queste donne ad affrontare apertamente il cancro e la loro situazione di sopravvissute al cancro, portandole ad “andare avanti” piuttosto che “tornare indietro”. Facendo riferimento alle connessioni tra variabili psicologiche e fisiologiche in queste donne, si è evidenziato che HRV è influenzata dalla presenza di figure significative ma, in particolare, è presumibile che sia influenzata da un’appropriata condivisione emotiva con queste figure. Si è anche evidenziato che poter continuare ad essere efficaci nel proprio contesto personale si riflette in un maggiore HRV, probabilmente in quanto permette di preservare il senso di sé, riducendo in questo modo lo stress derivante dall’esperienza cancro. Pertanto, HRV in queste donne risulta associato con un migliore adattamento psicologico. Inoltre, si è evidenziato che in queste donne la Qualità della Vita è profondamente influenzata dalla percezione dell’immagine corporea. Si tratta di un aspetto innovativo che è stato rilevato in questo campione e che, invece, nei precedenti studi non è stato indagato. In ultimo, la strategia di coping fatalismo sembra essere protettiva e sembra facilitare il processo di accettazione del cancro. Si spera sinceramente che le ricerche future possano superare i limiti del presente studio, come la scarsa numerosità e l’uso di strumenti di valutazione che, per alcuni aspetti come la scala Evitamento nel MAC, non centrano totalmente il target di indagine. Le traiettorie future di questo studio sono: aumentare il numero di osservazioni, reclutando donne in diversi centri specialistici in diverse zone d’Italia; utilizzare strumenti più specifici per valutare i costrutti in esame; valutare se un intervento di supporto centrato sul miglioramento di HRV (come HRV Biofeedback) può avere una ricaduta positiva sull’adattamento emotivo e la Qualità della Vita.

Investigating the potential magnetic origin of wind variability in OB stars

In this thesis, the origin of large-scale structures in hot star winds, believed to be responsible for the presence of discrete absorption components (DACs) in the absorption troughs of ultraviolet resonance lines, is constrained using both observations and numerical simulations. These structures are understood as arising from bright regions on the stellar surface, although their physical cause remains unknown. First, we use high quality circular spectropolarimetric observations of 13 well-studied OB stars to evaluate the potential role of dipolar magnetic fields in producing DACs. We perform longitudinal field measurements and place limits on the field strength using Bayesian inference, assuming that it is dipolar. No magnetic field was detected within this sample. The derived constraints statistically refute any significant dynamical influence from a magnetic dipole on the wind for all of these stars, ruling out such fields as a cause for DACs. Second, we perform numerical simulations using bright spots constrained by broadband optical photometric observations. We calculate hydrodynamical wind models using three sets of spot sizes and strengths. Co-rotating interaction regions are yielded in each model, and radiative transfer shows that the properties of the variations in the UV resonance lines synthesized from these models are consistent with those found in observed UV spectra, establishing the first consistent link between UV spectroscopic line profile variability and photometric variations and thus supporting the bright spot paradigm (BSP). Finally, we develop and apply a phenomenological model to quantify the measurable effects co-rotating bright spots would have on broadband optical photometry and on the profiles of photopheric lines in optical spectra. This model can be used to evaluate the existence of these spots, and, in the event of their detection, characterize them. Furthermore, a tentative spot evolution model is presented. A preliminary analysis of its output, compared to the observed photometric variations of xi Persei, suggests the possible existence of “active longitudes” on the surface of this star. Future work will expand the range of observational diagnostics that can be interpreted within the BSP, and link phenomenology (bright spots) to physical processes (magnetic spots or non-radial pulsations).

Sedimentological investigations and age model on sediment core PS2561-2

Benthic d13C values (F. wuellerstorfi), kaolinite/chlorite ratios and sortable silt median grain sizes in sediments of a core from the abyssal Agulhas Basin record the varying impact of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) during the last 200 ka. The data indicate that NADW influence decreased during glacials and increased during interglacials, in concert with the global climatic changes of the late Quaternary. In contrast, AABW displays a much more complex behaviour. Two independent modes of deep-water formation contributed to the AABW production in the Weddell Sea: 1) brine rejection during sea ice formation in polynyas and in the sea ice zone (Polynya Mode) and 2) super-cooling of Ice Shelf Water (ISW) beneath the Antarctic ice shelves (Ice Shelf Mode). Varying contributions of the two modes lead to a high millennial-scale variability of AABW production and export to the Agulhas Basin. Highest rates of AABW production occur during early glacials when increased sea ice formation and an active ISW production formed substantial amounts of deep water. Once full glacial conditions were reached and the Antarctic ice sheet grounded on the shelf, ISW production shut down and only brine rejection generated moderate amounts of deep water. AABW production rates dropped to an absolute minimum during Terminations I and II and the Marine Isotope Transition (MIS) 4/3 transition. Reduced sea ice formation concurrent with an enhanced fresh water influx from melting ice lowered the density of the surface water in the Weddell Sea, thus further reducing deep water formation via brine rejection, while the ISW formation was not yet operating again. During interglacials and the moderate interglacial MIS 3 both brine formation and ISW production were operating, contributing various amounts to AABW formation in the Weddell Sea.

Revised age model of DSDP Site 95-612

Alkenone-based Cenozoic records of the partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) are founded on the carbon isotope fractionation that occurred during marine photosynthesis (epsilon [p37:2]). However, the magnitude of epsilon [p37:2] is also influenced by phytoplankton cell size - a consideration lacking in previous alkenone-based CO2 estimates. In this study, we reconstruct cell size trends in ancient alkenone-producing coccolithophores (the reticulofenestrids) to test the influence that cell size variability played in determining epsilon [p37:2] trends and pCO2 estimates during the middle Eocene to early Miocene. At the investigated deep-sea sites, the reticulofenestrids experienced high diversity and largest mean cell sizes during the late Eocene, followed by a long-term decrease in maximum cell size since the earliest Oligocene. Decreasing haptophyte cell sizes do not account for the long-term increase in the stable carbon isotopic composition of alkenones and associated decrease in epsilon [p37:2] values during the Paleogene, supporting the conclusion that the secular pattern of epsilon [p37:2] values is primarily controlled by decreasing CO2 concentration since the earliest Oligocene. Further, given the physiology of modern alkenone producers, and considering the timings of coccolithophorid cell size change, extinctions, and changes in reconstructed pCO2 and temperature, we speculate that the selection of smaller reticulofenestrid cells during the Oligocene primarily reflects an adaptive response to increased [CO2(aq)] limitation.