970 resultados para Univariate Analysis box-jenkins methodology


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The study and preservation of museum collections requires complete knowledge and understanding of constituent materials that can be natural, synthetic, or semi-synthetic polymers. In former times, objects were incorporated in museum collections and classified solely by their appearance. New studies, prompted by severe degradation processes or conservation-restoration actions, help shed light on the materiality of objects that can contradict the original information or assumptions. The selected case study presented here is of a box dating from the beginning of the 20th century that belongs to the Portuguese National Ancient Art Museum. Museum curators classified it as a tortoiseshell box decorated with gold applications solely on the basis of visual inspection and the information provided by the donor. This box has visible signs of degradation with white veils, initially assumed to be the result of biological degradation of a proteinaceous matrix. This paper presents the methodological rationale behind this study and proposes a totally non-invasive methodology for the identification of polymeric materials in museum artifacts. The analysis of surface leachates using 1H and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) complemented by in situ attenuated total reflection infrared spectroscopy (ATR FT-IR) allowed for full characterization of the object s substratum. The NMR technique unequivocally identified a great number of additives and ATR FT-IR provided information about the polymer structure and while also confirming the presence of additives. The pressure applied during ATR FT-IR spectroscopy did not cause any physical change in the structure of the material at the level of the surface (e.g., color, texture, brightness, etc.). In this study, variable pressure scanning electron microscopy (VP-SEM-EDS) was also used to obtain the elemental composition of the metallic decorations. Additionally, microbiologic and enzymatic assays were performed in order to identify the possible biofilm composition and understand the role of microorganisms in the biodeterioration process. Using these methodologies, the box was correctly identified as being made of cellulose acetate plastic with brass decorations and the white film was identified as being composed mainly of polymer exudates, namely sulphonamides and triphenyl phosphate.

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Fifty Bursa of Fabricius (BF) were examined by conventional optical microscopy and digital images were acquired and processed using Matlab® 6.5 software. The Artificial Neuronal Network (ANN) was generated using Neuroshell® Classifier software and the optical and digital data were compared. The ANN was able to make a comparable classification of digital and optical scores. The use of ANN was able to classify correctly the majority of the follicles, reaching sensibility and specificity of 89% and 96%, respectively. When the follicles were scored and grouped in a binary fashion the sensibility increased to 90% and obtained the maximum value for the specificity of 92%. These results demonstrate that the use of digital image analysis and ANN is a useful tool for the pathological classification of the BF lymphoid depletion. In addition it provides objective results that allow measuring the dimension of the error in the diagnosis and classification therefore making comparison between databases feasible.

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A hybrid system to automatically detect, locate and classify disturbances affecting power quality in an electrical power system is presented in this paper. The disturbances characterized are events from an actual power distribution system simulated by the ATP (Alternative Transients Program) software. The hybrid approach introduced consists of two stages. In the first stage, the wavelet transform (WT) is used to detect disturbances in the system and to locate the time of their occurrence. When such an event is flagged, the second stage is triggered and various artificial neural networks (ANNs) are applied to classify the data measured during the disturbance(s). A computational logic using WTs and ANNs together with a graphical user interface (GU) between the algorithm and its end user is then implemented. The results obtained so far are promising and suggest that this approach could lead to a useful application in an actual distribution system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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An experimental design optimization (Box-Behnken design, BBD) was used to develop a CE method for the simultaneous resolution of propranolol (Prop) and 4-hydroxypropranolol enantiomers and acetaminophen (internal standard). The method was optimized using an uncoated fused silica capillary, carboxymethyl-beta-cyclodextrin (CM-beta-CD) as chiral selector and triethylamine/phosphoric acid buffer in alkaline conditions. A BBD for four factors was selected to observe the effects of buffer electrolyte concentration, pH, CM-beta-CD concentration and voltage on separation responses. Each factor was studied at three levels: high, central and low, and three center points were added. The buffer electrolyte concentration ranged from 25 to 75 mM, the pH ranged from 8 to 9, the CM-beta-CD concentration ranged from 3.5 to 4.5%w/v, and the applied run voltage ranged from 14 to 20 W. The responses evaluated were resolution and migration time for the last peak. The obtained responses were processed by Minitab (R) to evaluate the significance of the effects and to find the optimum analysis conditions. The best results were obtained using 4%w/v CM-beta-CD in 25 mM triethylamine/H(3)PO(4) buffer at pH 9 as running electrolyte and 17 kV of voltage. Resolution values of 1.98 and 1.95 were obtained for Prop and 4-hydroxypropranolol enantiomers, respectively. The total analysis time was around of 15 min. The BBD showed to be an adequate design for the development of a CE method, resulting in a rapid and efficient optimization of the pH and concentration of the buffer, cyclodextrin concentration and applied voltage.

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Historically, few articles have addressed the use of district level mill production data for analysing the effect of varietal change on sugarcane productivity trends. This appears to be due to lack of compiled district data sets and appropriate methods by which to analyse these data. Recently, varietal data on tonnes of sugarcane per hectare (TCH), sugar content (CCS), and their product, tonnes of sugar content per hectare (TSH) on a district basis, have been compiled. This study was conducted to develop a methodology for regular analysis of such data from mill districts to assess productivity trends over time, accounting for variety and variety x environment interaction effects for 3 mill districts (Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully) from 1958 to 1995. Restricted maximum likelihood methodology was used to analyse the district level data and best linear unbiased predictors for random effects, and best linear unbiased estimates for fixed effects were computed in a mixed model analysis. In the combined analysis over districts, Q124 was the top ranking variety for TCH, and Q120 was top ranking for both CCS and TSH. Overall production for TCH increased over the 38-year period investigated. Some of this increase can be attributed to varietal improvement, although the predictors for TCH have shown little progress since the introduction of Q99 in 1976. Although smaller gains have been made in varietal improvement for CCS, overall production for CCS decreased over the 38 years due to non-varietal factors. Varietal improvement in TSH appears to have peaked in the mid-1980s. Overall production for TSH remained stable over time due to the varietal increase in TCH and the non-varietal decrease in CCS.

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The Sox gene family (Sry like HMG box gene) is characterised by a conserved DNA sequence encoding a domain of approximately 80 amino acids which is responsible for sequence specific DNA binding. We initially published the identification and partial cDNA sequence of murine Sox18, a new member of this gene family, isolated from a cardiac cDNA library. This sequence allowed us to classify Sox18 into the F sub-group of Sox proteins, along with Sox7 and Sox17. Recently, we demonstrated that mutations in the Sox18 activation domain underlie cardiovascular and hair follicle defects in the mouse mutation, ragged (Ra) (Pennisi et al., 2000. Mutations in Sox18 underlie cardiovascular and hair follicle defecs in ragged mice. Nat. Genet. 24, 434-437). Ra homozygotes lack vibrissae and coat hairs, have generalised oedema and an accumulation of chyle in the peritoneum. Here we have investigated the genomic sequences encoding Sox18. Screening of a mouse genomic phage library identified four overlapping clones, we sequenced a 3.25 kb XbaI fragment that defined the entire coding region and approximately 1.5 kb of 5' flanking sequences. This identified (i) an additional 91 amino acids upstream of the previously designated methionine start codon in the original cDNA, and (ii);ln intron encoded within the HMG box/DNA binding domain in exactly the same position as that found in the Sox5, -13 and -17 genes. The Sox18 gene encodes a protein of 468 aa. We present evidence that suggests HAF-2, the human HMG-box activating factor-2 protein, is the orthologue of murine Sox18. HAF-2 has been implicated in the regulation of the Human IgH enhancer in a B cell context. Random mutagenesis coupled with GAL4 hybrid analysis in the activation domain between amino acids 252 and 346, of Sox18, implicated the phosphorylation motif, SARS, and the region between amino acid residues 313 and 346 as critical components of Sox18 mediated transactivation. Finally, we examined the expression of Sox18 in multiple adult mouse tissues using RT-PCR. Low-moderate expression was observed in spleen, stomach, kidney, intestine, skeletal muscle and heart. Very abundant expression was detected in lung tissue. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 "City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage" of the programme "Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development" within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission

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Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

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A methodology based on data mining techniques to support the analysis of zonal prices in real transmission networks is proposed in this paper. The mentioned methodology uses clustering algorithms to group the buses in typical classes that include a set of buses with similar LMP values. Two different clustering algorithms have been used to determine the LMP clusters: the two-step and K-means algorithms. In order to evaluate the quality of the partition as well as the best performance algorithm adequacy measurements indices are used. The paper includes a case study using a Locational Marginal Prices (LMP) data base from the California ISO (CAISO) in order to identify zonal prices.

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Dissertation for applying to a Master’s Degree in Molecular Genetics and Biomedicine submitted to the Sciences and Technology Faculty of New University of Lisbon

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Black-box optimization problems (BBOP) are de ned as those optimization problems in which the objective function does not have an algebraic expression, but it is the output of a system (usually a computer program). This paper is focussed on BBOPs that arise in the eld of insurance, and more speci cally in reinsurance problems. In this area, the complexity of the models and assumptions considered to de ne the reinsurance rules and conditions produces hard black-box optimization problems, that must be solved in order to obtain the optimal output of the reinsurance. The application of traditional optimization approaches is not possible in BBOP, so new computational paradigms must be applied to solve these problems. In this paper we show the performance of two evolutionary-based techniques (Evolutionary Programming and Particle Swarm Optimization). We provide an analysis in three BBOP in reinsurance, where the evolutionary-based approaches exhibit an excellent behaviour, nding the optimal solution within a fraction of the computational cost used by inspection or enumeration methods.

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BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Appropriate use of colonoscopy is a key component of quality management in gastrointestinal endoscopy. In an update of a 1998 publication, the 2008 European Panel on the Appropriateness of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (EPAGE II) defined appropriateness criteria for various colonoscopy indications. This introductory paper therefore deals with methodology, general appropriateness, and a review of colonoscopy complications. METHODS:The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method was used to evaluate the appropriateness of various diagnostic colonoscopy indications, with 14 multidisciplinary experts using a scale from 1 (extremely inappropriate) to 9 (extremely appropriate). Evidence reported in a comprehensive updated literature review was used for these decisions. Consolidation of the ratings into three appropriateness categories (appropriate, uncertain, inappropriate) was based on the median and the heterogeneity of the votes. The experts then met to discuss areas of disagreement in the light of existing evidence, followed by a second rating round, with a subsequent third voting round on necessity criteria, using much more stringent criteria (i. e. colonoscopy is deemed mandatory). RESULTS: Overall, 463 indications were rated, with 55 %, 16 % and 29 % of them being judged appropriate, uncertain and inappropriate, respectively. Perforation and hemorrhage rates, as reported in 39 studies, were in general < 0.1 % and < 0.3 %, respectively CONCLUSIONS: The updated EPAGE II criteria constitute an aid to clinical decision-making but should in no way replace individual judgment. Detailed panel results are freely available on the internet (www.epage.ch) and will thus constitute a reference source of information for clinicians.