Price transmission dynamics between ADRs and their underlying foreign security: The case of Banco de Colombia S.A.- Bancolombia.

This paper analyzes the dynamics ofthe American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of a Colombian bank (Bancolombia) in relation to its pricing factors (underlying (preferred) shares price, exchange rate and the US market index). The aim is to test if there is a long-term relation among these variables that would imply predictability. One cointegrating relation is found allowing the use of a vector error correction model to examine the transmission of shocks to the underlying prices, the exchange rate, and the US market index. The main finding of this paper is that in the short run, the underlying share price seems to adjust after changes in the ADR price, pointing to the fact that the NYSE (trading market for the ADR) leads the Colombian market. However, in the long run, both, the underlying share price and the ADR price, adjust to changes in one another.

Using Quantitative Methods to Explore Political Leverage, Trade Policy, and Food Security: A Case Study of the Middle East

This dissertation explores why some states consistently secure food imports at prices higher than the world market price, thereby exacerbating food insecurity domestically. I challenge the idea that free market economics alone can explain these trade behaviors, and instead argue that states take into account political considerations when engaging in food trade that results in inefficient trade. In particular, states that are dependent on imports of staple food products, like cereals, are wary of the potential strategic value of these goods to exporters. I argue that this consideration, combined with the importing state’s ability to mitigate that risk through its own forms of political or economic leverage, will shape the behavior of the importing state and contribute to its potential for food security. In addition to cross-national analyses, I use case studies of the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Jordan to demonstrate how the political tools available to these importers affect their food security. The results of my analyses suggest that when import dependent states have access to forms of political leverage, they are more likely to trade efficiently, thereby increasing their potential for food security.

Acuerdo de libre comercio entre Colombia y la NAFTA (North American Free Trade Area)

La Iniciativa de las Américas (Enterprise for the Americas) propone la creación de un área de libre comercio para el continente americano, partiendo de la base del acuerdo NAFTA (North American Free Trade Área) próximo a concretarse y del cual formarían parte los Estados Unidos, Canadá y México.

The role of oxidative stress as an underlying mechanism in life-history trade-offs

A key aspect underpinning life-history theory is the existence of trade-offs. Trade-offs occur because resources are limited, meaning that individuals cannot invest in all traits simultaneously, leading to costs for traits such as growth and reproduction. Such costs may be the reason for the sub-maximal growth rates that are often observed in nature, though the fitness consequences of these costs would depend on the effects on lifetime reproductive success. Recently, much attention has been given to the physiological mechanism that might underlie these life-history trade-offs, with oxidative stress (OS) playing a key role. OS is characterised by a build-up of oxidative damage to tissues (e.g. protein, lipids and DNA) from attack by reactive species (RS). RS, the majority of which are by-products of metabolism, are usually neutralised by antioxidants, however OS occurs when there is an imbalance between the two. There are two main theories linking OS with growth and reproduction. The first is that traits like growth and reproduction, being metabolically demanding, lead to an increase in RS production. The second involves the diversion of resources away from self-maintenance processes (e.g. the redox system) when individuals are faced with enhanced growth or reproductive expenditure. Previous research investigating trade-offs involving growth or reproduction and self-maintenance has been equivocal. One reason for this could be that associations among redox biomarkers can vary greatly so that the biomarker selected for analysis can influence the conclusion reached about an individual’s oxidative status. Therefore the first aim of my thesis was to explore the strength and pattern of integration of five biomarkers of OS (three antioxidants, one damage and one general oxidation measure) in wild blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) adults and nestlings (Chapter 2). In doing so, I established that all five biomarkers should be included in future analyses, thus using this collection of biomarkers I explored my next aims; whether enhanced growth (Chapters 3 and 4) or reproductive effort (Chapter 5) can lead to increased OS levels, if these traits are traded off against self-maintenance. I accomplished these aims using both a meta-analytic and experimental approach, the latter involving manipulation of brood size in wild blue tits in order to experimentally alter growth rate of nestlings and provisioning rate (a proxy for reproductive expenditure) of adults. I also investigated the potential for redox integration to be used as an index of body condition (Chapter 2), allowing predictions about future fitness consequences of changes to oxidative state to be made. A growth – self-maintenance trade off was supported by my meta-analytic results (Chapter 4) which found OS to be a constraint on growth. However, when faced with experimentally enhanced growth, animals were typically not able to adjust this trade-off so that oxidative damage resulted. This might support the idea that energetically expensive growth causes resources to be diverted away from the redox system; however, antioxidants did not show an overall reduction in response to growth in the meta-analysis suggesting that oxidative costs of growth may result from increased RS production due to the greater metabolism needed for enhanced growth. My experimental data (Chapter 3) showed a similar pattern, with raised protein damage levels (protein carbonyls; PCs) in the fastest growing blue tit chicks in a brood, compared with their slower growing sibs. These within-brood differences in OS levels likely resulted from within-brood hierarchies and might have masked any between-brood differences, which were not observed here. Despite evidence for a growth – self-maintenance trade off, my experimental results on blue tits found no support for the hypothesis that self-maintenance is also traded off against reproduction, another energetically demanding trait. There was no link between experimentally altered reproductive expenditure and OS, nor was there a direct correlation between reproductive effort and OS (Chapter 5). However, there are various factors that likely influence whether oxidative costs are observed, including environmental conditions and whether such costs are transient. This emphasises the need for longitudinal studies following the same individuals over multiple years and across a wide range of habitats that differ in quality. This would allow investigation into how key life events interact; it might be that raised OS levels from rapid early growth have the potential to constrain reproduction or that high parental OS levels constrain offspring growth. Any oxidative costs resulting from these life-history trade-offs have the potential to impact on future fitness. Redox integration of certain biomarkers might prove to be a useful tool in making predictions about fitness, as I found in Chapter 2, as well as establishing how the redox system responds, as a whole, to changes to growth and reproduction. Finally, if the tissues measured can tolerate a given level of OS, then the level of oxidative damage might be irrelevant and not impact on future fitness at all.

TAKING THE PERSPECTIVE OF A SELLER AND A BUYER: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRICE ELICITATION AND PRICE FRAMING

This dissertation consists of two essays which investigate how assuming the role of a seller or a buyer affects valuations in a price elicitation task (essay I) and how different presentations of an equivalent price affect evaluations when a consumer plays the dual roles of a buyer and a seller in transactions involving trade-ins (essay II). Sellers’ willingness to accept (WTA) to give up a good is typically higher than buyers' willingness to pay (WTP) to obtain the good. Essay I proposes that valuation processes of sellers and buyers are guided by a motivational orientation of “getting the best.” For a seller (buyer) indicating WTA (WTP), getting the best implies receiving as much as possible to give up a specific good (giving up as little as possible to get the specific good). Results of six studies suggest that the WTA-WTP elicitation task activates different directional goals, leading to the WTA-WTP disparity. The different directional goals lead sellers and buyers to focus on different aspects and bias their cognitive reasoning and interpretation of information. By connecting the valuation process to the general motivation of getting the best, this research provides a unifying framework to explain the disparate interpretations of the WTA-WTP disparity. Many new purchases and replacement decisions involve consumers’ trading in their old products. In such transactions, the overall exchange may be priced either as separate transactions (partitioned) with price tags for the payment and the receipt or as a single net price (consolidated) which takes into account the value of the trade-in. Essay II examines whether consumers prefer a partitioned price versus a consolidated price presentation. The findings suggest that when consumers are trading in a product which has a low value relative to the price of a new product, they prefer a consolidated price. In contrast, when trading in a product which has high value, they prefer a partitioned price. The results suggest that consumers use the price of the new product as an anchor to evaluate the trade-in value, and the perception of the trade-in value influences the overall evaluation especially when the transaction is partitioned.

An Analysis of Colombian Power Market Price Behavior from an Industrial Organization Perspective

We analyze the behavior of spot prices in the Colombian wholesale power market, using a series of models derived from industrial organization theory -- We first create a Cournot-based model that simulates the strategic behavior of the market-leader power generators, which we use to estimate two industrial organization variables, the Index of Residual Demand and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) -- We use these variables to create VAR models that estimate spot prices and power market impulse-response relationships -- The results from these models show that hydroelectric generators can use their water storage capability strategically to affect off-peak prices primarily, while the thermal generators can manage their capacity strategically to affect on-peak prices -- In addition, shocks to the Index of Residual Capacity and to the HHI cause spot price fluctuations, which can be interpreted as the generators´ strategic response to these shocks

Trade Liberalization and Organizational Change

We embed a simple incomplete-contracts model of organization design in a standard two-country perfectly-competitive trade model to examine how the liberalization of product and factor markets affects the ownership structure of firms.In our model, managers decide whether or not to integrate their firms, trading off the pecuniary benefits of coordinating production decisions with the private benefits of operating in their preferred ways. The price of output is a crucial determinant of this choice, since it affects the size of the pecuniary benefits. In particular, non-integration is chosen at “low” and “high” prices, while integration occurs at moderate prices. Organizational choices also depend on the terms of trade in supplier markets, which affect the division of surplus between managers. We obtain three main results. First, even when firms do not relocate across countries, the price changes triggered by liberalization of product markets can lead to significant organizational restructuring within countries. Second, the removal of barriers to factor mobility can lead to inefficient reorganization and adversely affect consumers. Third, “deep integration” — the liberalization of both product and factor markets — leads to the convergence of organizational design across countries.

Body reserves mediate trade-offs between life-history traits: new insights from small pelagic fish reproduction

Limited resources in the environment prevent individuals from simultaneously maximizing all life-history traits, resulting in trade-offs. In particular, the cost of reproduction is well known to negatively affect energy investment in growth and maintenance. Here, we investigated these trade-offs during contrasting periods of high versus low fish size and body condition (before/after 2008) in the Gulf of Lions. Female reproductive allocation and performance in anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) were examined based on morphometric historical data from the 1970s and from 2003 to 2015. Additionally, potential maternal effects on egg quantity and quality were examined in 2014/2015. After 2008, the gonadosomatic index increased for sardine and remained steady for anchovy, while a strong decline in mean length at first maturity indicated earlier maturation for both species. Regarding maternal effects, for both species egg quantity was positively linked to fish size but not to fish lipid reserves, while the egg quality was positively related to lipid reserves. Atresia prevalence and intensity were rather low regardless of fish condition and size. Finally, estimations of total annual numbers of eggs spawned indicated a sharp decrease for sardine since 2008 but a slight increase for anchovy during the last 5 years. This study revealed a biased allocation towards reproduction in small pelagic fish when confronted with a really low body condition. This highlights that fish can maintain high reproductive investment potentially at the cost of other traits which might explain the present disappearance of old and large individuals in the Gulf of Lions.

Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

ADAPTABILIDAD DE LAS FAMILIAS AGRÍCOLAS ANTE PRESIONES ECONÓMICAS Y ECOLÓGICAS: UN CASO DE CAFÉ DE ALTURA EN LEÓN CORTÉS, COSTA RICA

Resumen Los medios de vida de las familias productoras de café de altura están ligados a la finca. Esta relación tan marcada (familia – finca) los hace vulnerables a presiones externas que alteran el funcionamiento cotidiano interno de la unidad productiva. Dentro de estas presiones externas se encuentran los bajos precios, efectos climáticos y plagas en el cafetal. El artículo busca identificar los impactos que ejercen dichas presiones sobre los medios de vida de las familias cafetaleras del cantón de León Cortés, además se intenta mostrar las estrategias que han seguido estas unidades familiares para poder soportar y reponerse a los impactos generados por el clima, las plagas y la inestabilidad de precios del café. Las familias han generado diversas “estrategias de adaptación” en relación con los precios bajos, las organizaciones de productores han buscado nuevas alternativas de comercialización del café, tales como mercado justo y denominación de origen; además, han buscado la generación de un mayor valor agregado mediante la diversificación del producto final enfocado al café de calidad y a la presentación de café molido. Por su parte, las unidades familiares han buscado alternativas de diversificación como la siembra de aguacate. Para combatir las plagas los productores se han enfocado en la introducción de prácticas de conservación de suelos, mejorar sistemas de recolección e introducir sombra en los cultivos; el combate químico también ha sido una estrategia. Por último, la presión del clima no había sido muy tomada en cuenta por los caficultores de la zona, sin embargo, la Tormenta Alma sufrida en el año 2008 hizo que los caficultores comenzaran a pensar en un manejo adecuado y sostenible de la finca que minimice el riesgo climático. Abstract Livelihoods of family coffee growers are strongly determined by their farm. This makes families vulnerable to external shocks that affect the operations in the plot. Within these external shocks are included low prices, pests, and climate effects on the plantation. This paper aims to identify the impact of the aforementioned shocks on family coffee grower livelihoods in the canton of León Cortés. For this purpose, the article shows the strategies followed by families in order to support and recover themselves from the impact which come from climate, pests, and coffee price instability. Families have pursued various “adapting strategies”. Regarding low prices, producers' organizations have sought coffee marketing alternatives, such as fair trade and appellation of origin. Likewise, they work on increasing added value through diversification, improving coffee quality, and by a better packaging of ground coffee. Also, households have sought diversification options, such as avocado production. In order to combat pests, producers have focused on the introduction of soil conservation practices, improvement of collection systems, growing trees on coffee plantations, and chemical control. Finally, climate shocks had not been considered as a real problem by the farmers until the storm Alma affected the region. Nowadays, they think more about sound and sustainable management for their farm.

The impacts of US agricultural and trade policy on trade liberalization and integration via a US- Central America free trade agreement

Resumen Este estudio analiza importantes acciones legislativas del 2002 que afectarán sustancialmente las negociaciones comerciales con Estados Unidos; examina, asimismo, la protección de importaciones de ese país con respecto a productos agrícolas que serán críticos en las negociaciones con los países centroamericanos. Las acciones legislativas mencionadas fueron la aprobación del Proyecto de ley Agrícola del 2002 y la aprobación de la Autorización de Promoción Legal, que provee tratamiento del ‘trámite rápido’ de los acuerdos comerciales…

Stock price and volume effects associated with changes in the composition of the FTSE Bursa Malaysian KLCI

We examine the stock price and volume effects associated with changes in the composition of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI), over the time period of 2005–2012. We find evidence to support the price pressure hypothesis for both additions to and deletions from the KLCI. This is because significant stock price and trading volume effects in the pre index revision period are entirely reversed after the announcement of the news. Our empirical findings can be explained by the market microstructure literature. Significant changes in liquidity cause trading volume and stock prices to reverse back to their original level before the index revisions took place.

Potencialidades de exportación de carne de bovino de Colombia, en el marco de un posible tratado de libre comercio con Japón

Este proyecto se enfoca hacia la posibilidad de exportar carne de bovino colombiana a Japón, en el marco de un posible tratado de libre comercio. Japón, es un país asiático que posee alta demanda de la misma, sin embargo, su falta de superficie le impide la producción de carne bovina, volviéndose uno de los mayores importadores (puesto 5) a nivel mundial de este producto. En vista de lo anterior, nace la oportunidad para Colombia de convertirse en un viable exportador de carne bovina hacia el país asiático. Todo esto se debe, a que el país cuenta con ventajas como la superficie y el clima, llevándolo a convertirse en un país agrícola con alto potencial y capacidad de producción de carne de bovino. Al realizar el estudio pertinente, se considera que los mayores exportadores del producto hacia Japón son: Australia, Estados Unidos, Nueva Zelandia, Canadá y México, siendo Australia y Estados Unidos los mayores proveedores de Japón. Por ello, se evaluaron estos países como los principales competidores de Colombia, demostrando altas diferencias, dado que Colombia no cuenta con los requerimientos para exportar carne de bovino hacia Japón, por deficiencias en calidad, precio y cantidad.

Quick concrete

QUICK CONCRETE es un emprendimiento el cual se planteó como una empresa prestadora de servicios en el sector de la construcción en la ciudad de Ibagué, Colombia. Con ayuda de empresas ya reconocidas a nivel regional como lo son: la distribuidora de materiales y ferretería La Española, A&C y la ladrillera Ladrillos Roma. Se espera impactar en el mercado con un método diferente y un precio competitivo de servicio. El mayor impulso de la construcción puede estar asociado a una mayor demanda de vivienda por parte de ciudadanos bogotanos que ven en Ibagué una posibilidad rentable para invertir en vivienda, así como también el crecimiento del comercio que requiere la construcción de centros comerciales y el programa de viviendas de interés social del Gobierno que benefició a Ibague. Sin embargo, este es una actividad bastante cíclica y con una alta rotación de trabajadores.

Análisis teórico y fáctico de la internacionalización del grupo Casino-Exito y su impacto socioeconómico en Colombia

La conformación de grandes organizaciones de comercio de bienes de consumo como resultado de una integración de empresas comercializadoras, entre ellas la del Grupo Casino, han adquirido participaciones mayoritarias en empresas nacionales. Este nuevo modelo de negocios corporativo ha generado algunos beneficios al consumidor en aspectos de precio, variedad y calidad a la luz de compradores, investigadores y de los propios dueños. Sin embargo, son más los daños y perjuicios que ha ocasionado estos procesos de internacionalización que los beneficios a primera luz, pues vienen acompañados de prácticas desleales que han atentado con los intereses de empresas productoras y proveedoras eliminando de tajo la libre competencia y desapareciendo reglas y conductas sanas que han caracterizado a la economía de mercado. Se examinará las teorías y conductas que se aplican a estas negociaciones, así como las prácticas que ejecutan en el comercio en la defensa de la competencia y su impacto competitivo en sector comercio de Colombia.