Toward a novel forensic intelligence model: systematic profiling of false identity documents

False identity documents represent a serious threat through their production and use in organized crime and by terrorist organizations. The present-day fight against this criminal problem and threats to national security does not appropriately address the organized nature of this criminal activity, treating each fraudulent document on its own during investigation and the judicial process, which causes linkage blindness and restrains the analysis capacity. Given the drawbacks of this case-by-case approach, this article proposes an original model in which false identity documents are used to inform a systematic forensic intelligence process. The process aims to detect links, patterns, and tendencies among false identity documents in order to support strategic and tactical decision making, thus sustaining a proactive intelligence-led approach to fighting identity document fraud and the associated organized criminality. This article formalizes both the model and the process, using practical applications to illustrate its powerful capabilities. This model has a general application and can be transposed to other fields of forensic science facing similar difficulties.

Demogenetics in metapopulations

SUMMARY : Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Small and isolated populations suffer from increased stochasticity and from limited rescue effects. These two factors may be sufficient to cause local extinctions but fragmentation induces some genetic consequences that can also contribute significantly to extinction risks. Increased genetic drift reduces the effectiveness of selection against deleterious mutations, leading to their progressive accumulation. Drift also decreases both the standing genetic variation and the rate of fixation of beneficial mutations, limiting the evolutionary potential of isolated populations. Demography and genetics further interact and feed back on each other, progressively driving fragmented populations into "extinction vortices". The aim of the thesis was to better understand the processes occurring in fragmented populations. For this, I combined simulation studies and empirical data from three species that live in structured habitats. Chapter 1 and 2 investigate the demography of two shrew species in fragmented habitats. I showed that connectivity and habitat quality strongly affect the demography of the greater white-tooted shrew, although demographic stochasticity was extremely high. I also demonstrated that habitat fragmentation is one of the leading factors allowing the local coexistence of two competing shrew species. Chapter 3 and 4 focus on measuring connectivity in fragmented populations based on genetic data. In particular, I showed that genetic data can be used to detect the landscape elements impeding dispersal. In Chapter 5 that deals with the accumulation of deleterious mutations in fragmented populations, I demonstrated that mutation accumulation, as well a time to extinction, can be predicted from simple demographic and genetic measures. In the last two chapters, I monitored individual reproductive success in an isolated tree frogs population. These data allowed quantifying the effective population size, a measure closely linked to population evolutionary potential. To conclude, this thesis brings some new insights into the processes occurring in fragmented populations, and I hope it will contribute to the improvement of the management and conservation of fragmented populations.

Specificities of psychodynamic psychotherapy in the medically ill

Psychodynamic psychotherapy with patients suffering from somatic diseases is based on general principles of psychodynamic understanding, such as the influence of development and biographical elements on patient.s adaptation to illness or the role of defense mechanisms when facing existential threat. However, differences exist, such as the adaptation of the therapeutic setting, which thus loses some of its diagnostic and therapeutic power, or the early emergence of powerful transference, which cannot always be interpreted by the therapist. In addition, psychodynamic psychotherapy in the medically ill has some specificities, which differentiate it from classical psychoanalytic theory. The specificities concern, for example, transference of the medically ill, which is more adequately conceived by concepts of the existential analysis (Daseinsanalyse), or the patient.s loss of a sense of continuity, which needs an understanding beyond psychological theory taking into account philosophical (e.g. phenomenology), anthropological and ethical concepts.

Drift and ownership toward a distant virtual body.

In body ownership illusions participants feel that a mannequin or virtual body (VB) is their own. Earlier results suggest that body ownership over a body seen from behind in extra personal space is possible when the surrogate body is visually stroked and tapped on its back, while spatially and temporal synchronous tactile stimulation is applied to the participant's back. This result has been disputed with the claim that the results can be explained by self-recognition rather than somatic body ownership. We carried out an experiment with 30 participants in a between-groups design. They all saw the back of a VB 1.2 m in front, that moved in real-time determined by upper body motion capture. All felt tactile stimulation on their back, and for 15 of them this was spatially and temporally synchronous with stimulation that they saw on the back of the VB, but asynchronous for the other 15. After 3 min a revolving fan above the VB descended and stopped at the position of the VB neck. A questionnaire assessed referral of touch to the VB, body ownership, the illusion of drifting forwards toward the VB, and the VB drifting backwards. Heart rate deceleration (HRD) and the amount of head movement during the threat period were used to assess the response to the threat from the fan. Results showed that although referral of touch was significantly greater in the synchronous condition than the asynchronous, there were no other differences between the conditions. However, a further multivariate analysis revealed that in the visuotactile synchronous condition HRD and head movement increased with the illusion of forward drift and decreased with backwards drift. Body ownership contributed positively to these drift sensations. Our conclusion is that the setup results in a contradiction-somatic feelings associated with a distant body-that the brain attempts to resolve by generating drift illusions that would make the two bodies coincide.

The impact of information on patient preferences in different delivery patterns: a contingent valuation study of prescription versus OTC drugs.

OBJECTIVES: Our analysis assessed the impact of information on patients' preferences in prescription versus over-the-counter (OTC) delivery systems. METHODS: A contingent valuation (CV) study was implemented, randomly assigning 534 lay people into the receipt of limited or extended information concerning new influenza drugs. In each information arm, people answered two questions: the first asked about willingness to pay (WTP) for the new prescription drug; the second asked about WTP for the same drug sold OTC. RESULTS: We show that WTP is higher for the OTC scenario and that the level of information plays a significant role in the evaluation of the OTC scenario, with more information being associated with an increase in the WTP. In contrast, the level of information provided has no impact on WTP for prescription medicine. Thus, for the kind of drug considered here (i.e. safe, not requiring medical supervision), a switch to OTC status can be expected to be all the more beneficial, as the patient is provided with more information concerning the capability of the drug. CONCLUSIONS: Our results shed light on one of the most challenging issues that health policy makers are currently faced with, namely the threat of a bird flu pandemic. Drug delivery is a critical component of pandemic influenza preparedness. Furthermore, the congruence of our results with the agency and demand theories provides an important test of the validity of using WTP based on CV methods.

Assessing catchment-scale erosion and yields of suspended solids from improved temperate grassland.

This paper quantifies the yields of suspended solids (SS) from a headwater catchment managed as improved temperate grassland, providing the first direct, catchment-scale evidence of the rates of erosion from this land-use in the UK and assessing the threat posed to aquatic ecosystems. High-resolution monitoring of catchment hydrology and the concentrations of SS and volatile organic matter (VOM) were carried out in the first-order channel of the Den Brook headwater catchment in Devon (UK) during the 2006-2007 hydrological season. The widely used 'rating curve' (discharge-concentration) approach was employed to estimate yields of SS, but as demonstrated by previous researchers, this study showed that discharge is a poor predictor of SS concentrations and therefore any yields estimated from this technique are likely to be highly uncertain. Nevertheless, for the purpose of providing estimates of yields that are comparable to previous studies on other land uses/sources, this technique was adopted albeit in an uncertainty-based framework. The findings suggest that contrary to the common perception, grasslands can be erosive landscapes with SS yields from this catchment estimated to be between 0.54 and 1.21 t ha(-1) y(-1). In terms of on-site erosion problems, this rate of erosion does not significantly exceed the commonly used 'tolerable' threshold in the UK ( approximately 1 t ha(-1) y(-1)). In terms of off-site erosion problems, it is argued here that the conventional expression of SS yield as a bulk annual figure has little relevance to the water quality and ecological status of surface waters and therefore an alternative technique (the concentration-frequency curve) is developed within this paper for the specific purpose of assessing the ecological threat posed by the delivery of SS into surface waters. This technique illustrates that concentrations of SS recorded at the catchment outlet frequently exceed the water quality guidelines, such as those of the EU Freshwater Fisheries Directive (78/659/EC), and pose a serious threat to aquatic organisms. It is suggested that failure to recognise improved temperate grasslands as a potential source of particulate material could result in the non-compliance of surface waters to water quality guidelines, deterioration of ecological status and failure of water quality remediation measures.

Forensic processing of false identity and travel documents to produce intelligence: a novel approach to assist in fighting organized crime

The production and use of false identity and travel documents in organized crime represent a serious and evolving threat. However, a case-by-case perspective, thus suffering from linkage blindness and a limited analysis capacity, essentially drives the present-day fight against this criminal problem. To assist in overcoming these limitations, a process model was developed using a forensic perspective. It guides the systematic analysis and management of seized false documents to generate forensic intelligence that supports strategic and tactical decision-making in an intelligence-led policing approach. The model is articulated on a three-level architecture that aims to assist in detecting and following-up on general trends, production methods and links between cases or series. Using analyses of a large dataset of counterfeit and forged identity and travel documents, it is possible to illustrate the model, its three levels and their contribution. Examples will point out how the proposed approach assists in detecting emerging trends, in evaluating the black market's degree of structure, in uncovering criminal networks, in monitoring the quality of false documents, and in identifying their weaknesses to orient the conception of more secured travel and identity documents. The process model proposed is thought to have a general application in forensic science and can readily be transposed to other fields of study.

Infection and chronic allograft dysfunction.

With the advent of more potent immunosuppressive regimens, the incidence of acute rejection following renal transplantation has declined sharply in recent years. In spite of this, long-term graft outcomes remain suboptimal because of relentless attrition by cumulated insults to the allograft. As acute rejection rates have declined, other causes of graft injury and loss have recently emerged. Among these, infectious diseases remain a persistent threat and can be associated with allograft dysfunction. This group includes nephropathy due to polyoma (BK) virus infection, cytomegalovirus disease, and bacterial infection (the latter most commonly arising from the urinary tract). Rarer infectious causes of chronic allograft dysfunction include cryoglobulinemia associated with hepatitis C, Epstein-Barr virus-associated posttransplant lymphoproliferative disease, and direct cytotoxicity from adenoviral infection or parvovirus B19.

Business competence and training needs in Finnish companies operating in the Leningrad Region

Tässä pro gradu -työssä tutkitaan Leningradin alueella, Venäjällä, toimivien suomalaisyritysten liiketoimintaosaamisen koulutustarpeita. Tavoitteena on ollut tutkia, millaisia yritysten koulutustarpeet ovat, sekä lisäksi selvittää yleisemmällä tasolla, miten liiketoimintaosaaminen määritellään. Useat tutkimusta varten haastatellut johtajat pitävät liiketoimintaosaamista erityisesti markkinoilla toimimiseen liittyvänä osaamisena. Myös johtaminen, sekä tuotteet ja teknologia nähdään liiketoimintaosaamisen tärkeinä osina. Yrityksillä on koulutustarpeita seuraavilla alueilla: johtaminen; myynti, markkinat ja asiakkaat; yrityksen sisäinen yhteistyö; kielet, sekä juridiikka ja laskentatoimi. Haastateltavien mukaan markkinoiden nopea kehitys sekä yrityksen kasvu luovat yrityksille koulutustarpeita. Yllättäen myös Venäjän koulutusjärjestelmää itsessään pidetään koulutustarpeiden syynä. Tutkimuksessa mukana olleiden yritysten koulutuskäytännöt ovat keskenään melko erilaisia: koulutusbudjetti, koulutuspäivien määrä ja koulutusorganisaation valintakriteerit vaihtelevatyrityksestä riippuen. Joka tapauksessa yleisin koulutusmuoto näyttää olevan yrityksen sisäinen koulutus. Monet haastateltavat painottavat suuresti uusien työntekijöiden kouluttamista. Selvästikin rekrytointi ja uusien työntekijöiden koulutus vievät suuren osan tutkimusta varten haastateltujen johtajien ajasta. Tärkeä huomio koulutusmarkkinoihin liittyen on se, että lyhyiden, kaikille avoimien koulutusten kohdalla markkinat ovat Pietarissa täynnä. Suurimpana uhkana nähdään alalla vallitseva kouluttajapula.

Itsehoitolääkkeiden jakelukanavaverkoston laajentuminen Suomessa

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia itsehoitolääkkeiden jakelukanavaverkoston laajentumista Suomessa. Päätavoitteena oli löytää erilaisia tulevaisuuden toimintamalleja, ja tutkia, onko jakelun vapauttaminen uhka vai mahdollisuus lääketeollisuudelle. Lisäksi tutkielmassa oli tavoitteena selvittää millaisia erityisvaatimuksia itsehoitolääkkeiden jakeluunliittyy ja mitkä tekijät puoltavat ja mitkä jarruttavat itsehoitolääkkeiden kilpailun vapauttamista Suomessa. Tutkielma jakautuu teoreettiseen ja empiiriseen osaan. Teoreettinen osa keskittyy tarkastelemaan jakelukanaverkoston laajentumista lääketeollisuudessa. Empiirinen tutkimus toteutettiin laadullisena case-tutkimuksena ja tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin puoli-strukturoitua haastattelua. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että itsehoitolääkkeiden jakelun vapauttaminen on monitahoinen kysymys jamielipiteet sen tarpeellisuudesta ja hyödyllisyydestä vaihtelevat suuresti lääketeollisuuden jakelukanavan eri jäsenten välillä. Itsehoitolääkkeiden vähittäisjakelu voitaisiin tulevaisuudessa järjestää mahdollisesti joko vain apteekeista, tai apteekeista ja päivittäistavarakapoista. Mahdollisuutena olisi myös saada itsehoitolääkkeitä hotelleista ja ravintoloista, huoltamoista ja kioskeista. Lääkkeitä voisi ostaa myös erilaisista automaateista ja internetistä. Uudet kaupan muodot olisivat mahdollisia jos itsehoitolääkkeiden jakelu vapautuu tulevaisuudessa.

The effects of potentiallydisruptive technology on business model - a case study of new technologies in ICT industry

This study examines how firms interpret new, potentially disruptive technologies in their own strategic context. The work presents a cross-case analysis of four potentially disruptive technologies or technical operating models: Bluetooth, WLAN, Grid computing and Mobile Peer-to-peer paradigm. The technologies were investigated from the perspective of three mobile operators, a device manufacturer and a software company in the ICT industry. The theoretical background for the study consists of the resource-based view of the firm with dynamic perspective, the theories on the nature of technology and innovations, and the concept of business model. The literature review builds up a propositional framework for estimating the amount of radical change in the companies' business model with two middle variables, the disruptiveness potential of a new technology, and the strategic importance of a new technology to a firm. The data was gathered in group discussion sessions in each company. The results of each case analysis were brought together to evaluate, how firms interpret the potential disruptiveness in terms of changes in product characteristics and added value, technology and market uncertainty, changes in product-market positions, possible competence disruption and changes in value network positions. The results indicate that the perceived disruptiveness in terms ofproduct characteristics does not necessarily translate into strategic importance. In addition, firms did not see the new technologies as a threat in terms of potential competence disruption.

Escuela, familia de origen inmigrante y participación

Las relaciones entre las familias y la escuela se inscriben en la articulación entre dos instituciones con asimetría de poder y en un contexto social y político que las sitúa en el debate entre intereses públicos y privados. Aunque deben considerarse espacios yuxtapuestos, a menudo lo que se percibe es la separación, la distancia, cuando no el conflicto, entre ambos. Y esto comporta que el territorio de la escuela y el de la familia se vigile, se controle, por la amenaza de invasión o intrusión. El artículo analiza la participación de los progenitores de origen inmigrante en la escuela en España.Realizando una breve referencia a la legislación, se centra en la situación organizativa confederal, federal y asociativa (utilizando como fuente de información datos propios obtenidos en cinco grupos de discusión organizados en los diferentes niveles organizativos) y, por último, se aproxima la realidad de las Asociaciones de Padres de Alumnos (a través de una encuesta a 594 presidentes de asociaciones).Además de constatar la baja participación general y, en particular, la de las familias de origen inmigrante (menor entre unos orígenes que entre otros) se evidencia la necesidad de trabajar para incorporarlos al movimiento de padres, hecho que se considera imprescindible para su desarrollo.

Des faux documents d'identité au renseignement forensique : développement d'une approche systématique et transversale du traitement de la donnée forensique à des fins de renseignement criminel

La fabrication, la distribution et l'usage de fausses pièces d'identité constituent une menace pour la sécurité autant publique que privée. Ces faux documents représentent en effet un catalyseur pour une multitude de formes de criminalité, des plus anodines aux formes les plus graves et organisées. La dimension, la complexité, la faible visibilité, ainsi que les caractères répétitif et évolutif de la fraude aux documents d'identité appellent des réponses nouvelles qui vont au-delà d'une approche traditionnelle au cas par cas ou de la stratégie du tout technologique dont la perspective historique révèle l'échec. Ces nouvelles réponses passent par un renforcement de la capacité de comprendre les problèmes criminels que posent la fraude aux documents d'identité et les phénomènes qui l'animent. Cette compréhension est tout bonnement nécessaire pour permettre d'imaginer, d'évaluer et de décider les solutions et mesures les plus appropriées. Elle requière de développer les capacités d'analyse et la fonction de renseignement criminel qui fondent en particulier les modèles d'action de sécurité les plus récents, tels que l'intelligence-led policing ou le problem-oriented policing par exemple. Dans ce contexte, le travail doctoral adopte une position originale en postulant que les fausses pièces d'identité se conçoivent utilement comme la trace matérielle ou le vestige résultant de l'activité de fabrication ou d'altération d'un document d'identité menée par les faussaires. Sur la base de ce postulat fondamental, il est avancé que l'exploitation scientifique, méthodique et systématique de ces traces au travers d'un processus de renseignement forensique permet de générer des connaissances phénoménologiques sur les formes de criminalité qui fabriquent, diffusent ou utilisent les fausses pièces d'identité, connaissances qui s'intègrent et se mettent avantageusement au service du renseignement criminel. A l'appui de l'épreuve de cette thèse de départ et de l'étude plus générale du renseignement forensique, le travail doctoral propose des définitions et des modèles. Il décrit des nouvelles méthodes de profilage et initie la constitution d'un catalogue de formes d'analyses. Il recourt également à des expérimentations et des études de cas. Les résultats obtenus démontrent que le traitement systématique de la donnée forensique apporte une contribution utile et pertinente pour le renseignement criminel stratégique, opérationnel et tactique, ou encore la criminologie. Combiné aux informations disponibles par ailleurs, le renseignement forensique produit est susceptible de soutenir l'action de sécurité dans ses dimensions répressive, proactive, préventive et de contrôle. En particulier, les méthodes de profilage des fausses pièces d'identité proposées permettent de révéler des tendances au travers de jeux de données étendus, d'analyser des modus operandi ou d'inférer une communauté ou différence de source. Ces méthodes appuient des moyens de détection et de suivi des séries, des problèmes et des phénomènes criminels qui s'intègrent dans le cadre de la veille opérationnelle. Ils permettent de regrouper par problèmes les cas isolés, de mettre en évidence les formes organisées de criminalité qui méritent le plus d'attention, ou de produire des connaissances robustes et inédites qui offrent une perception plus profonde de la criminalité. Le travail discute également les difficultés associées à la gestion de données et d'informations propres à différents niveaux de généralité, ou les difficultés relatives à l'implémentation du processus de renseignement forensique dans la pratique. Ce travail doctoral porte en premier lieu sur les fausses pièces d'identité et leur traitement par les protagonistes de l'action de sécurité. Au travers d'une démarche inductive, il procède également à une généralisation qui souligne que les observations ci-dessus ne valent pas uniquement pour le traitement systématique des fausses pièces d'identité, mais pour celui de tout type de trace dès lors qu'un profil en est extrait. Il ressort de ces travaux une définition et une compréhension plus transversales de la notion et de la fonction de renseignement forensique. The production, distribution and use of false identity documents constitute a threat to both public and private security. Fraudulent documents are a catalyser for a multitude of crimes, from the most trivial to the most serious and organised forms. The dimension, complexity, low visibility as well as the repetitive and evolving character of the production and use of false identity documents call for new solutions that go beyond the traditional case-by-case approach, or the technology-focused strategy whose failure is revealed by the historic perspective. These new solutions require to strengthen the ability to understand crime phenomena and crime problems posed by false identity documents. Such an understanding is pivotal in order to be able to imagine, evaluate and decide on the most appropriate measures and responses. Therefore, analysis capacities and crime intelligence functions, which found the most recent policing models such as intelligence-led policing or problem-oriented policing for instance, have to be developed. In this context, the doctoral research work adopts an original position by postulating that false identity documents can be usefully perceived as the material remnant resulting from the criminal activity undertook by forgers, namely the manufacture or the modification of identity documents. Based on this fundamental postulate, it is proposed that a scientific, methodical and systematic processing of these traces through a forensic intelligence approach can generate phenomenological knowledge on the forms of crime that produce, distribute and use false identity documents. Such knowledge should integrate and serve advantageously crime intelligence efforts. In support of this original thesis and of a more general study of forensic intelligence, the doctoral work proposes definitions and models. It describes new profiling methods and initiates the construction of a catalogue of analysis forms. It also leverages experimentations and case studies. Results demonstrate that the systematic processing of forensic data usefully and relevantly contributes to strategic, tactical and operational crime intelligence, and also to criminology. Combined with alternative information available, forensic intelligence may support policing in its repressive, proactive, preventive and control activities. In particular, the proposed profiling methods enable to reveal trends among extended datasets, to analyse modus operandi, or to infer that false identity documents have a common or different source. These methods support the detection and follow-up of crime series, crime problems and phenomena and therefore contribute to crime monitoring efforts. They enable to link and regroup by problems cases that were previously viewed as isolated, to highlight organised forms of crime which deserve greatest attention, and to elicit robust and novel knowledge offering a deeper perception of crime. The doctoral research work discusses also difficulties associated with the management of data and information relating to different levels of generality, or difficulties associated with the implementation in practice of the forensic intelligence process. The doctoral work focuses primarily on false identity documents and their treatment by policing stakeholders. However, through an inductive process, it makes a generalisation which underlines that observations do not only apply to false identity documents but to any kind of trace as soon as a profile is extracted. A more transversal definition and understanding of the concept and function of forensic intelligence therefore derives from the doctoral work.

Uso del fuego prescrito para la creación de rodales cortafuegos: estudio del caso de Las Mesas de Ana López, Vega de San Mateo, Gran Canaria (España)

Los regímenes de fuegos forestales están cambiando en Gran Canaria y los grandes incendios forestales son más probables que antiguamente. Esto es un cambio importante en el régimen de perturbaciones y una grave amenaza a la biodiversidad. El Plan de Prevención de Incendios Forestales de Gran Canaria, año 2002 dejó clara la obligación de cambiar las estructuras de vegetación de la Isla en dos ámbitos: paisaje y protección de zonas sensibles. El uso de fuego prescrito (años 2002-2005) ha resultado ser una herramienta especialmente eficiente en este ámbito y muy adecuada para compatibilizar las acciones de prevención de incendios con el mantenimiento de los procesos ecológicos. Estas primeras experiencias en Gran Canaria muestran la idoneidad de los tratamientos para establecer rodales resistentes al paso del fuego en zonas estratégicas (deducidas tras simulación con Farsite y FlamMap). Y revelan lo conveniente que es que estos rodales resistentes estén distribuidos por nuestros montes de modo que los incendios potencialmente grandes encuentren zonas en las que sea factible controlar los perímetros. Este control se pudo hacer eficientemente en el incendio de las Mesas de 17 de agosto de 2004.

Lenguas en contacto y educación: influencia del prestigio de las lenguas en las actitudes lingüísticas de los escolares

En el artículo se expone un estudio comparativo entre escolares de Cataluña y del Aragón catalanófono. Considerando que nos encontramos ante contextos caracterizados por una valoración muy dispar de las lenguas en presencia (catalán y castellano), el objetivo de la investigación es contrastar las actitudes ante dichas lenguas por parte de cada uno de estos grupos. El análisis de los resultados destacó que mientras los escolares catalanes tendían a primar la lengua catalana, los escolares del Aragón catalanófono mostraban una tendencia a valorar más posi[ivamente la lengua casteUana. En cuanto a las variables que podían explicar tales actitudes, la condición lingiiística familiar aparecía como detetminante. Además, en la justificación de los resultados se consideró el sentido de amenaza con que cada lengua puede ser vivida por parte de los grupos lingiiísticos.