Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates

Past climates provide a test of models’ ability to predict climate change. We present a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models against Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene climates, using reconstructions of land and ocean climates and simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects. Newer models do not perform better than earlier versions despite higher resolution and complexity. Differences in climate sensitivity only weakly account for differences in model performance. In the glacial, models consistently underestimate land cooling (especially in winter) and overestimate ocean surface cooling (especially in the tropics). In the mid-Holocene, models generally underestimate the precipitation increase in the northern monsoon regions, and overestimate summer warming in central Eurasia. Models generally capture large-scale gradients of climate change but have more limited ability to reproduce spatial patterns. Despite these common biases, some models perform better than others.

Intercomparison of simulated global vegetation distribution in response to 6 kyr BP orbital forcing

The response of ten atmospheric general circulation models to orbital forcing at 6 kyr BP has been investigated using the BIOME model, which predicts equilibrium vegetation distribution, as a diagnostic. Several common features emerge: (a) reduced tropical rain forest as a consequence of increased aridity in the equatorial zone, (b) expansion of moisture-demanding vegetation in the Old World subtropics as a consequence of the expansion of the Afro–Asian monsoon, (c) an increase in warm grass/shrub in the Northern Hemisphere continental interiors in response to warming and enhanced aridity, and (d) a northward shift in the tundra–forest boundary in response to a warmer growing season at high northern latitudes. These broadscale features are consistent from model to model, but there are differences in their expression at a regional scale. Vegetation changes associated with monsoon enhancement and high-latitude summer warming are consistent with palaeoenvironmental observations, but the simulated shifts in vegetation belts are too small in both cases. Vegetation changes due to warmer and more arid conditions in the midcontinents of the Northern Hemisphere are consistent with palaeoenvironmental data from North America, but data from Eurasia suggests conditions were wetter at 6 kyr BP than today. The models show quantitatively similar vegetation changes in the intertropical zone, and in the northern and southern extratropics. The small differences among models in the magnitude of the global vegetation response are not related to differences in global or zonal climate averages, but reflect differences in simulated regional features. Regional-scale analyses will therefore be necessary to identify the underlying causes of such differences among models.

Detection of recent changes in climate using meteorological data from south-eastern Bangladesh

Analysis of meteorological records from four stations (Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Rangamati, Sitakunda) in south-eastern Bangladesh show coherent changes in climate over the past three decades. Mean maximum daily temperatures have increased between 1980 and 2013 by ca. 0.4 to 0.6°C per decade, with changes of comparable magnitude in individual seasons. The increase in mean maximum daily temperature is associated with decreased cloud cover and wind speed, particularly in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. During these two seasons, the correlation between changes in maximum temperature and clouds is between -0.5 and -0.7; the correlation with wind speed is weaker although similar values are obtained in some seasons. Changes in mean daily minimum (and hence mean) temperature differ between the northern and southern part of the basin: northern stations show a decrease in mean daily minimum temperature during the post-monsoon season of between 0.2 and 0.5°C per decade while southern stations show an increase of ca. 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. In contrast to the significant changes in temperature, there is no trend in mean or total precipitation at any station. However, there is a significant increase in the number of rain days at the northern sites during the monsoon season, with an increase per decade of 3 days in Sitakunda and 7 days at Rangamati. These climate changes could have a significant impact on the hydrology of the Halda Basin, which supplies water to Chittagong and is the major pisciculture centre in Bangladesh.

A multi-model evaluation of aerosols over South Asia: common problems and possible causes

Atmospheric pollution over South Asia attracts special attention due to its effects on regional climate, water cycle and human health. These effects are potentially growing owing to rising trends of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In this study, the spatio-temporal aerosol distributions over South Asia from seven global aerosol models are evaluated against aerosol retrievals from NASA satellite sensors and ground-based measurements for the period of 2000–2007. Overall, substantial underestimations of aerosol loading over South Asia are found systematically in most model simulations. Averaged over the entire South Asia, the annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is underestimated by a range 15 to 44% across models compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer), which is the lowest bound among various satellite AOD retrievals (from MISR, SeaWiFS (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra). In particular during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods (i.e., October–January), when agricultural waste burning and anthropogenic emissions dominate, models fail to capture AOD and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Indo–Gangetic Plain (IGP) compared to ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sunphotometer measurements. The underestimations of aerosol loading in models generally occur in the lower troposphere (below 2 km) based on the comparisons of aerosol extinction profiles calculated by the models with those from Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data. Furthermore, surface concentrations of all aerosol components (sulfate, nitrate, organic aerosol (OA) and black carbon (BC)) from the models are found much lower than in situ measurements in winter. Several possible causes for these common problems of underestimating aerosols in models during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods are identified: the aerosol hygroscopic growth and formation of secondary inorganic aerosol are suppressed in the models because relative humidity (RH) is biased far too low in the boundary layer and thus foggy conditions are poorly represented in current models, the nitrate aerosol is either missing or inadequately accounted for, and emissions from agricultural waste burning and biofuel usage are too low in the emission inventories. These common problems and possible causes found in multiple models point out directions for future model improvements in this important region.

Evolutionary history of Dengue virus type 4: Insights into genotype phylodynamics

Dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) circulates in tropical and subtropical countries from Asia and the Americas. Despite the importance of dengue virus distribution, little is known about the worldwide viral spread. Following a Bayesian phylogenetic approach we inferred the evolutionary history of 310 isolates sampled from 37 countries during the time period 1956-2008 and the spreading dynamics for genotypes I and II. The region (tropical rainforest biome) comprised by Malaysia-Thailand was the most likely ancestral area from which the serotype has originated and spread. Interestingly, cross-correlation analysis on demographic time series with the Asian sequences showed a statistically significant negative correlation that could be suggestive of competition among genotypes within the same serotype. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human papillomavirus type 16 variants in cervical cancer from an admixtured population in Brazil

Several studies indicate that molecular variants of HPV-16 have different geographic distribution and risk associated with persistent infection and development of high-grade cervical lesions. In the present study, the frequency of HPV-16 variants was determined in 81 biopsies from women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III or invasive cervical cancer from the city of Belem, Northern Brazil. Host DNAs were also genotyped in order to analyze the ethnicity-related distribution of these variants. Ninie different HPV-16 LCR variants belonging to four phylogenetic branches were identified. Among these, two new isolates were characterized. The most prevalent HPV-16 variant detected was the Asian-American B-2,followed by the European B-12 and the European prototype. Infections by multiple variants were observed in both invasive cervical cancer and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III cases. The analysis of a specific polymorphism within the E6 viral gene was performed in a subset of 76 isolates. The E6-350G polymorphism was significantly more frequent in Asian-American variants. The HPV-16 variability detected followed the same pattern of the genetic ancestry observed in Northern Brazil, with European, Amerindian and African roots. Although African ancestry was higher among women infected by the prototype, no correlation between ethnical origin and HPV-16 variants was found. These results corroborate previous data showing a high frequency of Asian-American variants in cervical neoplasia among women with multiethnic origin.

Cinco modelos de capitalismo

Besides analyzing capitalist societies historically and think them in terms of phases or stages, we may compare different models or varieties of capitalism. In this work I make a survey of the literature on this subject, distinguish the classification that have a production or business approach to the ones that use mainly a political criterion. And present my own view on the matter that views five forms of capitalism. Among the rich countries, I see the “liberal-democratic or Anglo-Saxon model, the social or European model, and endogenous social integration or Japanese model; among developing countries, I distinguish the Asian developmental model from the liberal-dependent model that characterizes most other developing countries including Brazil.

Coptotermes gestroi (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) in Brazil: possible origins inferred by mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase II gene sequences

The Asian subterranean termite, Coptotermes gestroi, originally from northeast India through Burma, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Indonesian archipelago, is a major termite pest introduced in several countries around the world, including Brazil. We sequenced the mitochondrial COII gene from individuals representing 23 populations. Phylogenetic analysis of COII gene sequences from this and other studies resulted in two main groups: (1) populations of Cleveland (USA) and four populations of Malaysia and (2) populations of Brazil, four populations of Malaysia, and one population from each of Thailand, Puerto Rico, and Key West (USA). Three new localities are reported here, considerably enlarging the distribution of C. gestroi in Brazil: Campo Grande (state of Mato Grosso do Sul), Itajai (state of Santa Catarina), and Porto Alegre (state of Rio Grande do Sul).

Substratos e regulador vegetal no enraizamento de estacas de pitaya

A pitaya é uma cactácea originária das florestas tropicais americanas que produz frutos exóticos bem apreciados e comercializados, principalmente no continente asiático. Contudo, ainda é uma espécie vegetal que demanda informações técnicas de cultivo nas áreas agrícolas brasileiras, motivando pesquisas em várias áreas do conhecimento. Objetivou-se avaliar diferentes substratos no enraizamento de cladódios imersos e não imersos no regulador de crescimento, ácido naftalenacético (ANA), na formação e desenvolvimento inicial de raízes em estacas de Hylocereus undatus, resultando em mudas mais vigorosas e de melhor qualidade. O experimento foi conduzido sob ripado no Departamento de Produção Vegetal - setor de Horticultura da Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas no campus de Botucatu - UNESP. O delineamento experimental foi o inteiramente aleatorizado em esquema fatorial 4 x 2 (substratos x condições) com quatro repetições. Após 60 dias da instalação do experimento foram avaliados: massa fresca e seca da parte aérea, massa fresca e seca das raízes e o comprimento da maior raiz. O crescimento e desenvolvimento radicular inicial de mudas não são influenciados pelo regulador vegetal ANA. Os substratos com a presença de areia são os mais adequados para a formação de mudas vigorosas e de boa qualidade. A mistura areia + esterco bovino proporciona maior acúmulo de fitomassa no sistema radicular de pitaya (H. undatus).

Cúrcuma: planta medicinal, condimentar e de outros usos potenciais

A cúrcuma (Curcuma longa L.), espécie originária do sudeste asiático, é considerada uma preciosa especiaria. Com a proibição do uso de pigmentos sintéticos nos principais países da América do Norte e Europa, têm sido procuradas alternativas naturais. A cúrcuma, além de sua principal utilização como condimento, possui substâncias antioxidantes, antimicrobianas e corantes (curcumina) que lhe conferem possibilidade de emprego nas áreas de cosméticos, têxtil, medicinal e alimentício. Até o presente momento, poucos estudos foram realizados com a cúrcuma no Brasil, fato que determina baixa produtividade. Entretanto, recentes resultados de pesquisa mostram a possibilidade de obtenção de produtividades semelhantes às de seu país de origem, ainda que maiores estudos sejam necessários para definição de estande, adubação e outras práticas culturais. Os objetivos do presente trabalho são apresentar a versatilidade mercadológica da cúrcuma, caracterizar a espécie quanto a aspectos botânicos, nutricionais e químicos, bem como reunir e discutir informações técnicas para melhoria da produtividade e qualidade dos rizomas.

Candidatus Liberibacter americanus, associated with citrus huanglongbing (greening disease) in São Paulo State, Brazil

Symptoms of huanglongbing (HLB) were reported in São Paulo State (SPS), Brazil, in March 2004. In Asia, HLB is caused by 'Candidatus Liberibacterasiaticus'and in Africa by 'Candidatus Liberibacter africanus'. Detection of the liberibacters is based on PCR amplification of their 16S rRNA gene with specific primers. Leaves with blotchy mottle symptoms characteristic of HLB were sampled in several farms of SIPS and tested for the presence of liberibacters. 'Ca. L. asiaticus' was detected in a small number of samples but most samples gave negative PCR results. Therefore, a new HLB pathogen was suspected. Evidence for an SPS-HLB bacterium in symptomatic leaves was obtained by PCR amplification with universal primers for prokaryotic 16S rRNA gene sequences. The amplified 16S rRNA gene was cloned and sequenced. Sequence analysis and phylogeny studies showed that the 16S rRNA gene possessed the oligonucleotide signatures and the secondary loop structure characteristic of the alpha-Proteobacteria, including the liberibacters. The 16S rRNA gene sequence phylogenetic tree showed that the SPS-HLB bacterium clustered within the a-Proteobacteria, the liberibacters being its closest relatives. For these reasons, the SPS-HLB bacterium is considered a member of the genus 'Ca. Liberibacter'. However, while the 16S rRNA gene sequences of 'Ca. L. asiaticus' and 'Ca. L. africanus' had 98-4% similarity, the 16S rRNA gene sequence of the SPS-HLB liberibacter had only 96(.)0% similarity with the 16S rRNA gene sequences of 'Ca. L. asiaticus'or'Ca. L. africanus'. This lower similarity was reflected in the phylogenetic tree, where the SPS-HLB liberibacter did not cluster within the 'Ca. L asiaticus'/'Ca. L. africanus group', but as a separate branch. Within the genus 'Candidatus Liberibacter' and for a given species, the 16S/23S intergenic region does not vary greatly. The intergenic regions of three strains of 'Ca. L. asiaticus', from India, the People's Republic of China and Japan, were found to have identical or almost identical sequences. In contrast, the intergenic regions of the SPS-HLB liberibacter, 'Ca. L. asiaticus' and 'Ca. L. africanus' had quite different sequences, with similarity between 66(.)0 and 79(.)5%. These results confirm that the SPS-HLB liberibacter is a novel species for which the name 'Candidatus Liberibacter americanus' is proposed. Like the African and the Asian liberibacters, the 'American' liberibacter is restricted to the sieve tubes of the citrus host. The liberibacter could also be detected by PCR amplification of the 16S rRNA gene in Diaphorina citri, the psyllid vector of 'Ca. L. asiaticus', suggesting that this psyllid is also a vector of 'Ca. L. americanus' in SPS. 'Ca. L. americanus' was detected in 216 of 218 symptomatic leaf samples from 47 farms in 35 municipalities, while 'Ca. L. asiaticus' was detected in only 4 of the 218 samples, indicating that 'Ca. L. americanus' is the major cause of HLB in SIPS.

Social Panorama of Latin America 2001-2002

Includes bibliography

Financial crises in "successful" emerging economies

Includes bibliography

Cobertura da cultura da soja pela calda fungicida em função, de pontas de pulverização e volumes de aplicação

The goal of this research was to evaluate two tips of spraying nozzles (hollow cone nozzle and two flat fan nozzle annexed to a nozzle body DUO) and three spray volumes (100, 150 and 200 dm3 ha-1), whose application was for the control of the Asian soybean rust. An area of 288 m 2 was used, with a randomized blocks design in a factorial 2×3 with 4 repetitions, total of 24 experimental parcels of 12 m2. For the spraying with hydraulical nozzles a costal spray of constant pressure kept by C02 compressed with bar of 2 m was used. The analysis of the covering percentage was carried through by means of the use of hidro-sensible paper, that was placed in three position of the plant what it represents, in height, the third superior, average and inferior of the canopy. For both the third no interaction between the evaluated factors, was found and meither difference statistics between the spraying tips and the volumes. In absolute values the twin flat fan nozzle DUO presented minimum difference of covering in relation to the hollow cone nozzle, and for the spray volume of 200 dm3 ha -1 presented greater covering percentage.

From capital surges to drought: seeking stability for emerging economies

Includes bibliography