The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Synchronization of Discrete-Time Chaotic Systems in Bandlimited Channels

Over the last couple of decades, many methods for synchronizing chaotic systems have been proposed with communications applications in view. Yet their performance has proved disappointing in face of the nonideal character of usual channels linking transmitter and receiver, that is, due to both noise and signal propagation distortion. Here we consider a discrete-time master-slave system that synchronizes despite channel bandwidth limitations and an allied communication system. Synchronization is achieved introducing a digital filter that limits the spectral content of the feedback loop responsible for producing the transmitted signal. Copyright (C) 2009 Marcio Eisencraft et al.

Behavior and viability of spontaneous oxidative stress-resistant Lactococcus lactis mutants in experimental fermented milk processing

Previously, we isolated two strains of spontaneous oxidative (SpOx2 and SpOx3) stress mutants of Lactococcus lactis subsp cremoris. Herein, we compared these mutants to a parental wild- type strain (J60011) and a commercial starter in experimental fermented milk production. Total solid contents of milk and fermentation temperature both affected the acidification profile of the spontaneous oxidative stress- resistant L. lactis mutants during fermented milk production. Fermentation times to pH 4.7 ranged from 6.40 h (J60011) to 9.36 h (SpOx2); V(max) values were inversely proportional to fermentation time. Bacterial counts increased to above 8.50 log(10) cfu/mL. The counts of viable SpOx3 mutants were higher than those of the parental wild strain in all treatments. All fermented milk products showed post-fermentation acidification after 24 h of storage at 4 degrees C; they remained stable after one week of storage.

Measurement of banana green life

Introduction. This protocol aims at measuring the storage life potential of banana fruit, and at determining the physiological age of fruit. The principle, key advantages, starting plant material, time required and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. This part describes the required laboratory materials and the five steps necessary for calculating the banana green life duration, which corresponds to the number of days between the fruit harvest and climacteric crisis. Results. The measurement of O-2 and CO2 concentrations allows one to detect the climacteric peak which marks the end of the banana green life.

Validation of reference genes for gene expression studies in the honey bee, Apis mellifera, by quantitative real-time RT-PCR

For obtaining accurate and reliable gene expression results it is essential that quantitative real-time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) data are normalized with appropriate reference genes. The current exponential increase in postgenomic studies on the honey bee, Apis mellifera, makes the standardization of qRT-PCR results an important task for ongoing community efforts. For this aim we selected four candidate reference genes (actin, ribosomal protein 49, elongation factor 1-alpha, tbp-association factor) and used three software-based approaches (geNorm, BestKeeper and NormFinder) to evaluate the suitability of these genes as endogenous controls. Their expression was examined during honey bee development, in different tissues, and after juvenile hormone exposure. Furthermore, the importance of choosing an appropriate reference gene was investigated for two developmentally regulated target genes. The results led us to consider all four candidate genes as suitable genes for normalization in A. mellifera. However, each condition evaluated in this study revealed a specific set of genes as the most appropriated ones.

Time Changes with the Embodiment of Another's Body Posture

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the perception of presentation durations of pictures of different body postures was distorted as function of the embodied movement that originally produced these postures. Participants were presented with two pictures, one with a low-arousal body posture judged to require no movement and the other with a high-arousal body posture judged to require considerable movement. In a temporal bisection task with two ranges of standard durations (0.4/1.6 s and 2/8 s), the participants had to judge whether the presentation duration of each of the pictures was more similar to the short or to the long standard duration. The results showed that the duration was judged longer for the posture requiring more movement than for the posture requiring less movement. However the magnitude of this overestimation was relatively greater for the range of short durations than for that of longer durations. Further analyses suggest that this lengthening effect was mediated by an arousal effect of limited duration on the speed of the internal clock system.

TRAVELLING THROUGH PITCH SPACE SPEEDS UP MUSICAL TIME

SEVERAL MODELS OF TIME ESTIMATION HAVE BEEN developed in psychology; a few have been applied to music. In the present study, we assess the influence of the distances travelled through pitch space on retrospective time estimation. Participants listened to an isochronous chord sequence of 20-s duration. They were unexpectedly asked to reproduce the time interval of the sequence. The harmonic structure of the stimulus was manipulated so that the sequence either remained in the same key (CC) or travelled through a closely related key (CFC) or distant key (CGbC). Estimated times were shortened when the sequence modulated to a very distant key. This finding is discussed in light of Lerdahl's Tonal Pitch Space Theory (2001), Firmino and Bueno's Expected Development Fraction Model (in press), and models of time estimation.

Time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy of white-spot caries in human enamel

The objective is to differentiate noncavitated caries enamel through time-resolved fluorescence and to find excitation and emission parameters that can be applied in future clinical practice for detection of caries lesions that are not clearly visible to the professional. Sixteen human teeth with noncavitiated white-spot caries were selected for this work. Fluorescence intensity decay was measured by using an apparatus based on the time-correlated single-photon counting method. An optical fiber bundle was employed for sample excitation (440 nm), and the fluorescence collected by the same bundle (500 nm) was registered. The average lifetime for sound enamel was 7: 93 +/- 0: 09, 2: 46 +/- 0: 04, and 0: 51 +/- 0: 02 ns, whereas for the carious enamel the lifetimes were 4: 84 +/- 0: 06, 1: 35 +/- 0: 02, and 0: 16 +/- 0: 01 ns. It was concluded that it is possible to differentiate between carious and sound regions by time-resolved fluorescence and that, although the origin of enamel fluorescence is still uncertain, the lifetime values seem to be typical of fluorophores like collagen I. (C) 2010 Optical Society of America

A reliable measure of similarity based on dependency for short time series: an application to gene expression networks

Background: Microarray techniques have become an important tool to the investigation of genetic relationships and the assignment of different phenotypes. Since microarrays are still very expensive, most of the experiments are performed with small samples. This paper introduces a method to quantify dependency between data series composed of few sample points. The method is used to construct gene co-expression subnetworks of highly significant edges. Results: The results shown here are for an adapted subset of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae gene expression data set with low temporal resolution and poor statistics. The method reveals common transcription factors with a high confidence level and allows the construction of subnetworks with high biological relevance that reveals characteristic features of the processes driving the organism adaptations to specific environmental conditions. Conclusion: Our method allows a reliable and sophisticated analysis of microarray data even under severe constraints. The utilization of systems biology improves the biologists ability to elucidate the mechanisms underlying celular processes and to formulate new hypotheses.

First Description of a Cluster of Acute/Subacute Paracoccidioidomycosis Cases and Its Association with a Climatic Anomaly

Background: Identifying clusters of acute paracoccidioidomycosis cases could potentially help in identifying the environmental factors that influence the incidence of this mycosis. However, unlike other endemic mycoses, there are no published reports of clusters of paracoccidioidomycosis. Methodology/Principal Findings: A retrospective cluster detection test was applied to verify if an excess of acute form (AF) paracoccidioidomycosis cases in time and/or space occurred in Botucatu, an endemic area in Sao Paulo State. The scan-test SaTScan v7.0.3 was set to find clusters for the maximum temporal period of 1 year. The temporal test indicated a significant cluster in 1985 (P<0.005). This cluster comprised 10 cases, although 2.19 were expected for this year in this area. Age and clinical presentation of these cases were typical of AF paracccidioidomycosis. The space-time test confirmed the temporal cluster in 1985 and showed the localities where the risk was higher in that year. The cluster suggests that some particularities took place in the antecedent years in those localities. Analysis of climate variables showed that soil water storage was atypically high in 1982/83 (similar to 2.11/2.5 SD above mean), and the absolute air humidity in 1984, the year preceding the cluster, was much higher than normal (similar to 1.6 SD above mean), conditions that may have favored, respectively, antecedent fungal growth in the soil and conidia liberation in 1984, the probable year of exposure. These climatic anomalies in this area was due to the 1982/83 El Nino event, the strongest in the last 50 years. Conclusions/Significance: We describe the first cluster of AF paracoccidioidomycosis, which was potentially linked to a climatic anomaly caused by the 1982/83 El Nino Southern Oscillation. This finding is important because it may help to clarify the conditions that favor Paracoccidioides brasiliensis survival and growth in the environment and that enhance human exposure, thus allowing the development of preventive measures.

A novel mutation in the glycogen synthase 2 gene in a child with glycogen storage disease type 0

Background: Glycogen storage disease type 0 is an autosomal recessive disease presenting in infancy or early childhood and characterized by ketotic hypoglycemia after prolonged fasting and postprandial hyperglycemia and hyperlactatemia. Sixteen different mutations have been identified to date in the gene which encodes hepatic glycogen synthase, resulting in reduction of glycogen storage in the liver. Case Presentation: Biochemical evaluation as well as direct sequencing of exons and exon-intron boundary regions of the GYS2 gene were performed in a patient presenting fasting hypoglycemia and postprandial hyperglycemia and her parents. The patient was found to be compound heterozygous for one previously reported nonsense mutation (c. 736 C>T; R243X) and a novel frameshift mutation (966_967delGA/insC) which introduces a stop codon 21 aminoacids downstream from the site of the mutation that presumably leads to loss of 51% of the COOH-terminal part of the protein. The glycemia and lactatemia of the parents after an oral glucose tolerance test were evaluated to investigate a possible impact of the carrier status on the metabolic profile. The mother, who presented a positive family history of type 2 diabetes, was classified as glucose intolerant and the father, who did not exhibit metabolic changes after the glucose overload, had an antecedent history of hypoglycemia after moderate alcohol ingestion. Conclusion: The current results expand the spectrum of known mutations in GYS2 and suggest that haploinsufficiency could explain metabolic abnormalities in heterozygous carriers in presence of predisposing conditions.

Development of Hepatitis C Virus Genotyping by Real-Time PCR Based on the NS5B Region

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotyping is the most significant predictor of the response to antiviral therapy. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a novel real-time PCR method for HCV genotyping based on the NS5B region. Methodology/Principal Findings: Two triplex reaction sets were designed, one to detect genotypes 1a, 1b and 3a; and another to detect genotypes 2a, 2b, and 2c. This approach had an overall sensitivity of 97.0%, detecting 295 of the 304 tested samples. All samples genotyped by real-time PCR had the same type that was assigned using LiPA version 1 (Line in Probe Assay). Although LiPA v. 1 was not able to subtype 68 of the 295 samples (23.0%) and rendered different subtype results from those assigned by real-time PCR for 12/295 samples (4.0%), NS5B sequencing and real-time PCR results agreed in all 146 tested cases. Analytical sensitivity of the real-time PCR assay was determined by end-point dilution of the 5000 IU/ml member of the OptiQuant HCV RNA panel. The lower limit of detection was estimated to be 125 IU/ml for genotype 3a, 250 IU/ml for genotypes 1b and 2b, and 500 IU/ml for genotype 1a. Conclusions/Significance: The total time required for performing this assay was two hours, compared to four hours required for LiPA v. 1 after PCR-amplification. Furthermore, the estimated reaction cost was nine times lower than that of available commercial methods in Brazil. Thus, we have developed an efficient, feasible, and affordable method for HCV genotype identification.

Real-Time PCR in HIV/Trypanosoma cruzi Coinfection with and without Chagas Disease Reactivation: Association with HIV Viral Load and CD4(+) Level

Background: Reactivation of chronic Chagas disease, which occurs in approximately 20% of patients coinfected with HIV/Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi), is commonly characterized by severe meningoencephalitis and myocarditis. The use of quantitative molecular tests to monitor Chagas disease reactivation was analyzed. Methodology: Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of kDNA sequences, competitive (C-) PCR and real-time quantitative (q) PCR were compared with blood cultures and xenodiagnosis in samples from 91 patients (57 patients with chronic Chagas disease and 34 with HIV/T. cruzi coinfection), of whom 5 had reactivation of Chagas disease and 29 did not. Principal Findings: qRT-PCR showed significant differences between groups; the highest parasitemia was observed in patients infected with HIV/T. cruzi with Chagas disease reactivation (median 1428.90 T. cruzi/mL), followed by patients with HIV/T. cruzi infection without reactivation (median 1.57 T. cruzi/mL) and patients with Chagas disease without HIV (median 0.00 T. cruzi/mL). Spearman's correlation coefficient showed that xenodiagnosis was correlated with blood culture, C-PCR and qRT-PCR. A stronger Spearman correlation index was found between C-PCR and qRT-PCR, the number of parasites and the HIV viral load, expressed as the number of CD4(+) cells or the CD4(+)/CD8(+) ratio. Conclusions: qRT-PCR distinguished the groups of HIV/T. cruzi coinfected patients with and without reactivation. Therefore, this new method of qRT-PCR is proposed as a tool for prospective studies to analyze the importance of parasitemia (persistent and/or increased) as a criterion for recommending pre-emptive therapy in patients with chronic Chagas disease with HIV infection or immunosuppression. As seen in this study, an increase in HIV viral load and decreases in the number of CD4(+) cells/mm(3) and the CD4(+)/CD8(+) ratio were identified as cofactors for increased parasitemia that can be used to target the introduction of early, pre-emptive therapy.

Time variation of some selected topics in bioethical publications

Objective: To analyse the time variation of topics in bioethical publications as a proxy of the relative importance. Methods: We searched the Medline database for bioethics publications using the words ""ethics or bioethics'', and for 360 specific topics publications, associating Medical Subject Heading topic descriptors to those words. We calculated the ratio of bioethics publications to the total publications of Medline, and the ratio of each topic publications to the total bioethics publications, for five-year intervals, from 1970 to 2004. We calculated the time variation of ratios, dividing the difference between the highest and lowest ratio of each topic by its highest ratio. Four topics were described, selected to illustrate different patterns of variation: ""Induced Abortion'', ""Conflict of Interest'', ""Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome'', ""Medical Education.'' Results: The ratio of bioethics publications to total Medline publications increased from 0.003 to 0.012. The variation of the topic's ratios was higher than 0.7 for 68% of the topics. The Induced Abortion ratios decreased from 0.12 to 0.02. Conflict of Interest ratios increased from zero to 0.07. The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ratios were nearly zero in the first three intervals, had a peak of 0.06 during 1985-9, followed by a decrease to 0.01. Medical Education ratios varied few, from 0.04 to 0.03. Conclusions: There was an increase of bioethical publications in the Medline database. The topics in bioethics literature have an important time variation. Some factors were suggested to explain this variation: current legal cases, resolution of the issue, saturation of a discussion and epidemiologic importance.