Intelligent PCA contribution analysis for quality estimation in batch processes. Application in a sequencing batch reactor for wastewater treatment

En aquest treball, es proposa un nou mètode per estimar en temps real la qualitat del producte final en processos per lot. Aquest mètode permet reduir el temps necessari per obtenir els resultats de qualitat de les anàlisi de laboratori. S'utiliza un model de anàlisi de componentes principals (PCA) construït amb dades històriques en condicions normals de funcionament per discernir si un lot finalizat és normal o no. Es calcula una signatura de falla pels lots anormals i es passa a través d'un model de classificació per la seva estimació. L'estudi proposa un mètode per utilitzar la informació de les gràfiques de contribució basat en les signatures de falla, on els indicadors representen el comportament de les variables al llarg del procés en les diferentes etapes. Un conjunt de dades compost per la signatura de falla dels lots anormals històrics es construeix per cercar els patrons i entrenar els models de classifcació per estimar els resultas dels lots futurs. La metodologia proposada s'ha aplicat a un reactor seqüencial per lots (SBR). Diversos algoritmes de classificació es proven per demostrar les possibilitats de la metodologia proposada.

Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

The association between dietary energy density and type 2 diabetes in Europe: results from the EPIC-InterAct Study

BACKGROUND Observational studies implicate higher dietary energy density (DED) as a potential risk factor for weight gain and obesity. It has been hypothesized that DED may also be associated with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but limited evidence exists. Therefore, we investigated the association between DED and risk of T2D in a large prospective study with heterogeneity of dietary intake. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS A case-cohort study was nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) study of 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person years of follow-up, identifying 12,403 incident diabetes cases and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. DED was calculated as energy (kcal) from foods (except beverages) divided by the weight (gram) of foods estimated from dietary questionnaires. Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted by country. Risk estimates were pooled by random effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated. Estimated mean (sd) DED was 1.5 (0.3) kcal/g among cases and subcohort members, varying across countries (range 1.4-1.7 kcal/g). After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, energy intake from beverages and misreporting of dietary intake, no association was observed between DED and T2D (HR 1.02 (95% CI: 0.93-1.13), which was consistent across countries (I(2) = 2.9%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE In this large European case-cohort study no association between DED of solid and semi-solid foods and risk of T2D was observed. However, despite the fact that there currently is no conclusive evidence for an association between DED and T2DM risk, choosing low energy dense foods should be promoted as they support current WHO recommendations to prevent chronic diseases.

The antioxidant effect of β-caryophyllene protects rat liver from carbon tetrachloride-induced fibrosis by inhibiting hepatic stellate cell activation.

Plant-based whole foods provide thousands of bioactive metabolites to the human diet that reduce the risk of developing chronic diseases. β-Caryophyllene (CAR) is a common constituent of the essential oil of numerous plants, vegetables, fruits and medicinal herbs, and has been used as a flavouring agent since the 1930 s. Here, we report the antioxidant activity of CAR, its protective effect on liver fibrosis and its inhibitory capacity on hepatic stellate cell (HSC) activation. CAR was tested for the inhibition of lipid peroxidation and as a free radical scavenger. CAR had higher inhibitory capacity on lipid peroxidation than probucol, α-humulene and α-tocopherol. Also, CAR showed high scavenging activities against hydroxyl radical and superoxide anion. The activity of 5-lipoxygenase, an enzyme that actively participates in fibrogenesis, was significantly inhibited by CAR. Carbon tetrachloride-treated rats received CAR at 2, 20 and 200 mg/kg. CAR significantly improved liver structure, and reduced fibrosis and the expression of Col1a1, Tgfb1 and Timp1 genes. Oxidative stress was used to establish a model of HSC activation with overproduction of extracellular matrix proteins. CAR (1 and 10 μm) increased cell viability and significantly reduced the expression of fibrotic marker genes. CAR, a sesquiterpene present in numerous plants and foods, is as a natural antioxidant that reduces carbon tetrachloride-mediated liver fibrosis and inhibits hepatic cell activation.

Theory of mind and cognitive processes in aging and Alzheimer type dementia: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Theory of mind (ToM) performance in aging and dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) has been a growing interest of researchers and recently, theoretical trends in ToM development have led to a focus on determining the cognitive skills involved in ToM performance. The aim of the present review is to answer three main questions: How is ToM assessed in aging and DAT? How does ToM performance evolve in aging and DAT? Do cognitive processes influence ToM performance in aging and DAT? METHOD: A systematic review was conducted to provide a targeted overview of recent studies relating ToM performance with cognitive processes in aging and DAT. RESULTS: RESULTS suggest a decrease in ToM performance, more pronounced in complex ToM tasks. Moreover, the review points up the strong involvement of executive functions, especially inhibition, and reasoning skills in ToM task achievement. CONCLUSION: Current data suggest that the structure of ToM tasks itself could lead to poor performance, especially in populations with reduced cognitive abilities.

Behavioural Flexibility: evolutionary past and its role in a changing world

A través de la historia de la vida, gran parte de los organismos han desarrollado estrategias para responder a un mundo en constante cambio. Hoy en día, las actividades humanas producen cambios ambientales a una velocidad sin precedentes, lo cual se traduce en grandes desafíos para la persistencia de biodiversidad. Esta investigación evalúa las respuesta de los animales a los cambios ambientales enfocándose en la flexibilidad del comportamiento como estrategia adaptativa. En una primera aproximación a una escala evolutiva, se otorgan evidencias del vínculo hasta ahora tenue entre la cognición e historias de vida, entregando un claro apoyo a la relación entre longevidad, vida reproductiva y el tamaño del cerebro en mamíferos. La longevidad es el centro de muchas hipótesis respecto a las ventajas de desarrollar un cerebro grande, como por ejemplo en la hipótesis del buffer cognitivo y las respuestas flexibles frente a nuevos ambientes. En un segundo nivel, se abordan factores extrínsecos e intrínsecos que podrían explicar las diferencias individuales en innovación, un componente clave en la flexibilidad del comportamiento. Por medio de una aproximación experimental, se evalúan potenciales escenarios que podrían conducir a consistentes diferencias individuales en uno de los principales factores subyacentes a la innovación (i.e. la motivación), y el potencial control endocrino sobre estos escenarios. Posteriormente, con el objetivo de evaluar la respuesta de los animales frente a los cambios ambientales actuales, se explora la respuesta de los animales frente a una de las actividades humanas mas disruptivas sobre los ecosistemas, la urbanización. Por medio de un analisis filogenetico comparativo a nivel global en aves se abordan los mecanismos implicados en la perdida de biodiversidad observada en ambientes urbanos. Los resultados entregan evidencias sobre la importancia de procesos de dispersión local junto con el papel clave de los rasgos de historia de vida, pero en un sentido diferente al clasicamente pensado. Finalmente por medio de una revisión bibliográfica se entregan evidencias teóricas y empíricas que respaldan el rol clave de la flexibilidad del comportamiento en confrontar los desafíos de una vida urbana. La integración de estos resultados muestra cómo el pasado evolutivo contribuye a hacer frente a los retos ambientales actuales, y pone de relieve posibles consecuencias ante un planeta más cambiante que nunca.

The Limits of Discrete Time Repeated Games:Some Notes and Comments

This paper studies the limits of discrete time repeated games with public monitoring. We solve and characterize the Abreu, Milgrom and Pearce (1991) problem. We found that for the "bad" ("good") news model the lower (higher) magnitude events suggest cooperation, i.e., zero punishment probability, while the highrt (lower) magnitude events suggest defection, i.e., punishment with probability one. Public correlation is used to connect these two sets of signals and to make the enforceability to bind. The dynamic and limit behavior of the punishment probabilities for variations in ... (the discount rate) and ... (the time interval) are characterized, as well as the limit payo¤s for all these scenarios (We also introduce uncertainty in the time domain). The obtained ... limits are to the best of my knowledge, new. The obtained ... limits coincide with Fudenberg and Levine (2007) and Fudenberg and Olszewski (2011), with the exception that we clearly state the precise informational conditions that cause the limit to converge from above, to converge from below or to degenerate. JEL: C73, D82, D86. KEYWORDS: Repeated Games, Frequent Monitoring, Random Pub- lic Monitoring, Moral Hazard, Stochastic Processes.

Polymorphism at a sex-linked transcription cofactor in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea): Sex-antagonistic selection or neutral processes?

Nascent sex chromosomes offer a unique opportunity to investigate the evolutionary fate of genesrecently trapped in non-recombining segments. A housekeeping gene (MED15) was recently shown to lie on the nascent sex-chromosomes of the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), with different alleles fixed on the X and the Y chromosomes. Here we document a polymorphism (glutamine deletion) in the X copy of the gene, and use population surveys and experimental crosses to test whether this polymorphism is neutral or maintained by sex-antagonistic selection. Tadpoles from parents of known genotypes revealed significant discrepancies from Mendelian inheritance, suggesting possible sex-antagonistic effects under laboratory conditions. Quantitatively, however, these effects did not meet the conditions for polymorphism maintenance. Furthermore, field estimates of female genotypic frequencies did not differ from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and allelic frequencies on the X chromosome did not differ between sexes. In conclusion, although sex antagonistic effects cannot be excluded given the laboratory conditions, the X-linked polymorphism under study appears neutral in the wild. Alternatively, sex-antagonistic selection might still account for the fixation of a male specific allele on the Y chromosome.

Deficits in executive and memory processes in delusional disorder: a case-control study

OBJECTIVE Delusional disorder has been traditionally considered a psychotic syndrome that does not evolve to cognitive deterioration. However, to date, very little empirical research has been done to explore cognitive executive components and memory processes in Delusional Disorder patients. This study will investigate whether patients with delusional disorder are intact in both executive function components (such as flexibility, impulsivity and updating components) and memory processes (such as immediate, short term and long term recall, learning and recognition). METHODS A large sample of patients with delusional disorder (n = 86) and a group of healthy controls (n = 343) were compared with regard to their performance in a broad battery of neuropsychological tests including Trail Making Test, Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, Colour-Word Stroop Test, and Complutense Verbal Learning Test (TAVEC). RESULTS When compared to controls, cases of delusional disorder showed a significantly poorer performance in most cognitive tests. Thus, we demonstrate deficits in flexibility, impulsivity and updating components of executive functions as well as in memory processes. These findings held significant after taking into account sex, age, educational level and premorbid IQ. CONCLUSIONS Our results do not support the traditional notion of patients with delusional disorder being cognitively intact.

The average inter-crossing number of equilateral random walks and polygons

In this paper, we study the average inter-crossing number between two random walks and two random polygons in the three-dimensional space. The random walks and polygons in this paper are the so-called equilateral random walks and polygons in which each segment of the walk or polygon is of unit length. We show that the mean average inter-crossing number ICN between two equilateral random walks of the same length n is approximately linear in terms of n and we were able to determine the prefactor of the linear term, which is a = (3 In 2)/(8) approximate to 0.2599. In the case of two random polygons of length n, the mean average inter-crossing number ICN is also linear, but the prefactor of the linear term is different from that of the random walks. These approximations apply when the starting points of the random walks and polygons are of a distance p apart and p is small compared to n. We propose a fitting model that would capture the theoretical asymptotic behaviour of the mean average ICN for large values of p. Our simulation result shows that the model in fact works very well for the entire range of p. We also study the mean ICN between two equilateral random walks and polygons of different lengths. An interesting result is that even if one random walk (polygon) has a fixed length, the mean average ICN between the two random walks (polygons) would still approach infinity if the length of the other random walk (polygon) approached infinity. The data provided by our simulations match our theoretical predictions very well.

Gene-lifestyle interaction and type 2 diabetes: the EPIC interact case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND Understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has progressed rapidly, but the interactions between common genetic variants and lifestyle risk factors have not been systematically investigated in studies with adequate statistical power. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined effects of genetic and lifestyle factors on risk of T2D in order to inform strategies for prevention. METHODS AND FINDINGS The InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals from a cohort of 340,234 European participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the combined effects of an additive genetic T2D risk score and modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods. The effect of the genetic score was significantly greater in younger individuals (p for interaction  = 1.20×10-4). Relative genetic risk (per standard deviation [4.4 risk alleles]) was also larger in participants who were leaner, both in terms of body mass index (p for interaction  = 1.50×10-3) and waist circumference (p for interaction  = 7.49×10-9). Examination of absolute risks by strata showed the importance of obesity for T2D risk. The 10-y cumulative incidence of T2D rose from 0.25% to 0.89% across extreme quartiles of the genetic score in normal weight individuals, compared to 4.22% to 7.99% in obese individuals. We detected no significant interactions between the genetic score and sex, diabetes family history, physical activity, or dietary habits assessed by a Mediterranean diet score. CONCLUSIONS The relative effect of a T2D genetic risk score is greater in younger and leaner participants. However, this sub-group is at low absolute risk and would not be a logical target for preventive interventions. The high absolute risk associated with obesity at any level of genetic risk highlights the importance of universal rather than targeted approaches to lifestyle intervention.

Iron metabolism, inflammation and anemia in critically ill patients. A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION For critically patients, enteral immunonutrition results in notable reductions in infections and in length of stay in hospital, but not on mortality, raising the question as to whether this relate to the heterogeneous nature of critically ill patients or to the absence of the altered absorption of specific nutrients within the immunonutrient mix (e.g. iron). Immune-associated functional iron deficiency (FID) is not only one of the many causes or anaemia in the critically ill, but also a cause of inappropriate immune response, leading to a longer duration of episodes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome and poor outcome. OBJECTIVE This prospective cross-sectional study was undertaken to assess the prevalence of FID in critically ill patients during their stay in intensive care (ICU) in order to find the more appropriate population of patients that can benefit from iron therapy. METHOD Full blood cell counts, including reticulocytes (RETIC), serum iron (SI), transferring levels (TRF) and saturation (satTRF), serum TFR receptor (sTfR), ferritin (FRT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in venous blood samples from 131 random patients admitted to the ICU for at least 24 h (Length of ICU stay, LIS; min: 1 day; max: 38 days). RESULTS Anaemia (Hb < 12 g/dL) was present in 76% of the patients (Hb < 10 g/dL in 33%), hypoferremia (SI < 45 microg/dl) in 69%; satTRF < 20% in 53%; FRT < 100 ng/mL in 23%; sTfR > 2.3 mg/dL in 13%; and CRP > 0.5 mg/dL in 88%. Statistically significant correlations (r of Pearson; *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01) were obtained for serum CRP levels and WBC**, Hb*, TRF**, satTRF*, and FRT**. There was also a strong correlation between TRF and FRT (-0.650**), but not between FRT and satTRF or SI. LIS correlated with Hb*, CRP**, TRF*, satTRF* and FRT**. CONCLUSIONS A large proportion of critically ill patients admitted to the ICU presented the typical functional iron deficiency (FID) of acute inflammation-related anaemia (AIRA). This FID correlates with the inflammatory status and the length of stay at the ICU. However, 21% of the ICU patients with AIRA had an associated real iron deficiency (satTRF < 20; FRT < 100 and sTfR > 2.3). Since oral supplementation of iron seems to be ineffective, all these patients might benefit of iv iron therapy for correction of real or functional iron deficiency, which in turn might help to ameliorate their inflammatory status.

Consensus paper: the role of the cerebellum in perceptual processes.

Various lines of evidence accumulated over the past 30 years indicate that the cerebellum, long recognized as essential for motor control, also has considerable influence on perceptual processes. In this paper, we bring together experts from psychology and neuroscience, with the aim of providing a succinct but comprehensive overview of key findings related to the involvement of the cerebellum in sensory perception. The contributions cover such topics as anatomical and functional connectivity, evolutionary and comparative perspectives, visual and auditory processing, biological motion perception, nociception, self-motion, timing, predictive processing, and perceptual sequencing. While no single explanation has yet emerged concerning the role of the cerebellum in perceptual processes, this consensus paper summarizes the impressive empirical evidence on this problem and highlights diversities as well as commonalities between existing hypotheses. In addition to work with healthy individuals and patients with cerebellar disorders, it is also apparent that several neurological conditions in which perceptual disturbances occur, including autism and schizophrenia, are associated with cerebellar pathology. A better understanding of the involvement of the cerebellum in perceptual processes will thus likely be important for identifying and treating perceptual deficits that may at present go unnoticed and untreated. This paper provides a useful framework for further debate and empirical investigations into the influence of the cerebellum on sensory perception.