Supporting, Regulating, and Provisioning Hydrological Services

The natural regulation of the water cycle by tropical montane forests is an important ecosystem service. Within this chapter we focus on water balance and regulation of the water cycle. Differences of rainfall-runoff generation across scales change from a near-surface event water driven system in pristine rainforest-covered micro-catchments to a more groundwater pre-event water dominated one on the mesoscale. The highly dynamic discharges are often correlated with total suspended sediment loads. However, we also observed total suspended sediment peaks at times of low flow, indicating a decoupling of erosion and stream transport and a triggering of landslides not directly related to hydrological processes. We also summarize likely future trends of water-related ecosystem services and expect an increase in human use and benefits of fresh water use whereas changes in water regulation and water purification services remain unchanged on a high level.

Geochemical and isotopic characterization of the Bodélé Depression dust source and implications for transatlantic dust transport to the Amazon Basin

The Bodélé Depression (Chad) in the central Sahara/Sahel region of Northern Africa is the most important source of mineral dust to the atmosphere globally. The Bodélé Depression is purportedly the largest source of Saharan dust reaching the Amazon Basin by transatlantic transport. Here, we have undertaken a comprehensive study of surface sediments from the Bodélé Depression and dust deposits (Chad, Niger) in order to characterize geochemically and isotopically (Sr, Nd and Pb isotopes) this dust source, and evaluate its importance in present and past African dust records. We similarly analyzed sedimentary deposits from the Amazonian lowlands in order to assess postulated accumulation of African mineral dust in the Amazon Basin, as well as its possible impact in fertilizing the Amazon rainforest. Our results identify distinct sources of different ages and provenance in the Bodélé Depression versus the Amazon Basin, effectively ruling out an origin for the Amazonian deposits, such as the Belterra Clay Layer, by long-term deposition of Bodélé Depression material. Similarly, no evidence for contributions from other potential source areas is provided by existing isotope data (Sr, Nd) on Saharan dusts. Instead, the composition of these Amazonian deposits is entirely consistent with derivation from in-situ weathering and erosion of the Precambrian Amazonian craton, with little, if any, Andean contribution. In the Amazon Basin, the mass accumulation rate of eolian dust is only around one-third of the vertical erosion rate in shield areas, suggesting that Saharan dust is “consumed” by tropical weathering, contributing nutrients and stimulating plant growth, but never accumulates as such in the Amazon Basin. The chemical and isotope compositions found in the Bodélé Depression are varied at the local scale, and have contrasting signatures in the “silica-rich” dry lake-bed sediments and in the “calcium-rich” mixed diatomites and surrounding sand material. This unexpected finding implies that the Bodélé Depression material is not “pre-mixed” at the source to provide a homogeneous source of dust. Rather, different isotope signatures can be emitted depending on subtle vagaries of dust-producing events. Our characterization of the Bodélé Depression components indicate that the Bodélé “calcium-rich” component, identified here, is most likely released via eolian processes of sand grain saltation and abrasion and may be significant in the overall global budget of dusts carried out by the Harmattan low-level jet during the winter.

Ecosystem services, biodiversity and environmental change in a tropical mountain ecosystem of south Ecuador

An interdisciplinary research unit consisting of 30 teams in the natural, economic and social sciences analyzed biodiversity and ecosystem services of a mountain rainforest ecosystem in the hotspot of the tropical Andes, with special reference to past, current and future environmental changes. The group assessed ecosystem services using data from ecological field and scenario-driven model experiments, and with the help of comparative field surveys of the natural forest and its anthropogenic replacement system for agriculture. The book offers insights into the impacts of environmental change on various service categories mentioned in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005): cultural, regulating, supporting and provisioning ecosystem services. Examples focus on biodiversity of plants and animals including trophic networks, and abiotic/biotic parameters such as soils, regional climate, water, nutrient and sediment cycles. The types of threats considered include land use and climate changes, as well as atmospheric fertilization. In terms of regulating and provisioning services, the emphasis is primarily on water regulation and supply as well as climate regulation and carbon sequestration. With regard to provisioning services, the synthesis of the book provides science-based recommendations for a sustainable land use portfolio including several options such as forestry, pasture management and the practices of indigenous peoples. In closing, the authors show how they integrated the local society by pursuing capacity building in compliance with the CBD-ABS (Convention on Biological Diversity - Access and Benefit Sharing), in the form of education and knowledge transfer for application.

Nutrient additions affecting matter turnover in forest and pasture ecosystems

Nutrient inputs into ecosystems of the tropical mountain rainforest region are projected to further increase in the next decades. To investigate whether important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and matter turnover in native forests and pasture ecosystems show different patterns of response, two nutrient addition experiments have been established: NUMEX in the forest and FERPAST at the pasture. Both ecosystems already responded 1.5 years after the start of nutrient application (N, P, NP, Ca). Interestingly, most nutrients remained in the respective systems. While the pasture grass was co-limited by N and P, most tree species responded to P addition. Soil microbial biomass in the forest litter layer increased after NP fertilization pointing to nutrient co-limitation. In pasture soils, microorganisms were neither limited by N nor P. The results support the hypothesis that multiple and temporally variable nutrient limitations can coexist in tropical ecosystems.

Glacial forcing of central Indonesian hydroclimate since 60,000 y B.P.

The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region’s importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores fromLake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y.We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial–interglacial climate variability.

Aluminum toxicity in a tropical montane forest ecosystem in southern Ecuador

Aluminum phytotoxicity frequently occurs in acid soils (pH < 5.5) and was therefore discussed to affect ecosystem functioning of tropical montane forests. The susceptibility to Al toxicity depends on the sensitivity of the plant species and the Al speciation in soil solution, which can vary highly depending e.g., on pH, ionic strength, and dissolved organic matter. An acidification of the ecosystem and periodic base metal deposition from Saharan dust may control plant available Al concentrations in the soil solutions of tropical montane rainforests in south Ecuador. The overall objective of my study was to assess a potential Al phytotoxicity in the tropical montane forests in south Ecuador. For this purpose, I exposed three native Al non-accumulating tree species (Cedrela odorata L., Heliocarpus americanus L., and Tabebuia chrysantha (Jacq.) G. Nicholson) to increased Al concentrations (0 – 2400 μM Al) in a hydroponic experiment, I established dose-response curves to estimate the sensitivity of the tree species to increased Al concentrations, and I investigated the mechanisms behind the observed effects induced by elevated Al concentrations. Furthermore, the response of Al concentrations and the speciation in soil solution to Ca amendment in the study area were determined. In a final step, I assessed all major Al fluxes, drivers of Al concentrations in ecosystem solutions, and indicators of Al toxicity in the tropical montane rainforest in Ecuador in order to test for indications of Al toxicity. In the hydroponic experiment, a 10 % reduction in aboveground biomass production occurred at 126 to 376 μM Al (EC10 values), probably attributable to decreased Mg concentrations in leaves and reduced potosynthesis. At 300 μM Al, increased root biomass production of T. chrysantha was observed. Phosphorus concentrations in roots of C. odorata and T. chrysantha were significantly highest in the treatment with 300 μM Al and correlated significantly with root biomass, being a likely reason for stimulated root biomass production. The degree of organic complexation of Al in the organic layer leachate, which is central to plant nutrition because of the high root density, and soil solution from the study area was very high (mean > 99 %). The resulting low free Al concentrations are not likely to affect plant growth, although the concentrations of potentially toxic Al3+ increased with soil depth due to higher total Al and lower dissolved organic matter concentrations in soil solutions. The Ca additions caused an increase of Al in the organic layer leachate, probably because Al3+ was exchanged against the added Ca2+ ions while pH remained constant. The free ion molar ratios of Ca2+:Al3+ (mean ratio ca. 400) were far above the threshold (≤ 1) for Al toxicity, because of a much higher degree of organo-complexation of Al than Ca. High Al fluxes in litterfall (8.8 – 14.2 kg ha−1 yr−1) indicate a high Al circulation through the ecosystem. The Al concentrations in the organic layer leachate were driven by the acidification of the ecosystem and increased significantly between 1999 and 2008. However, the Ca:Al molar ratios in organic layer leachate and all aboveground ecosystem solutions were above the threshold for Al toxicity. Except for two Al accumulating and one non-accumulating tree species, the Ca:Al molar ratios in tree leaves from the study area were above the Al toxicity threshold of 12.5. I conclude that toxic effects in the hydroponic experiment occurred at Al concentrations far above those in native organic layer leachate, shoot biomass production was likely inhibited by reduced Mg uptake, impairing photosynthesis, and the stimulation of root growth at low Al concentrations can be possibly attributed to improved P uptake. Dissolved organic matter in soil solutions detoxifies Al in acidic tropical forest soils and a wide distribution of Al accumulating tree species and high Al fluxes in the ecosystem do not necessarily imply a general Al phytotoxicity.

Effects of elevation and land use on the biomass of trees, shrubs and herbs at Mount Kilimanjaro

The protection and sustainable management of forest carbon stocks, particularly in the tropics, is a key factor in the mitigation of global change effects. However, our knowledge of how land use and elevation affect carbon stocks in tropical ecosystems is very limited. We compared aboveground biomass of trees, shrubs and herbs for eleven natural and human-influenced habitat types occurring over a wide elevation gradient (866–4550 m) at the world's highest solitary mountain, Mount Kilimanjaro. Thanks to the enormous elevation gradient, we covered important natural habitat types, e.g., savanna woodlands, montane rainforest and afro-alpine vegetation, as well as important land-use types such as maize fields, grasslands, traditional home gardens, coffee plantations and selectively logged forest. To assess tree and shrub biomass with pantropical allometric equations, we measured tree height, diameter at breast height and wood density and to assess herbaceous biomass, we sampled destructively. Among natural habitats, tree biomass was highest at intermediate elevation in the montane zone (340 Mg ha−1), shrub biomass declined linearly from 7 Mg ha−1 at 900 m to zero above 4000 m, and, inverse to tree biomass, herbaceous biomass was lower at mid-elevations (1 Mg ha−1) than in savannas (900 m, 3 Mg ha−1) or alpine vegetation (above 4000 m, 6 Mg ha−1). While the various land-use types dramatically decreased woody biomass at all elevations, though to various degrees, herbaceous biomass was typically increased. Our study highlights tropical montane forest biomass as important aboveground carbon stock and quantifies the extent of the strong aboveground biomass reductions by the major land-use types, common to East Africa. Further, it shows that elevation and land use differently affect different vegetation strata, and thus the matrix for other organisms.

Primary forest dynamics in lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia, and the role of the understorey

Changes in species composition in two 4–ha plots of lowland dipterocarp rainforest at Danum, Sabah, were measured over ten years (1986 to 1996) for trees greater than or equal to 10 cm girth at breast height (gbh). Each included a lower–slope to ridge gradient. The period lay between two drought events of moderate intensity but the forest showed no large lasting responses, suggesting that its species were well adapted to this regime. Mortality and recruitment rates were not unusual in global or regional comparisons. The forest continued to aggrade from its relatively (for Sabah) low basal area in 1986 and, together with the very open upper canopy structure and an abundance of lianas, this suggests a forest in a late stage of recovery from a major disturbance, yet one continually affected by smaller recent setbacks. Mortality and recruitment rates were not related to population size in 1986, but across subplots recruitment was positively correlated with the density and basal area of small trees (10 to <50 cm gbh) forming the dense understorey. Neither rate was related to topography. While species with larger mean gbh had greater relative growth rates (rgr) than smaller ones, subplot mean recruitment rates were correlated with rgr among small trees. Separating understorey species (typically the Euphorbiaceae) from the overstorey (Dipterocarpaceae) showed marked differences in change in mortality with increasing gbh: in the former it increased, in the latter it decreased. Forest processes are centred on this understorey quasi–stratum. The two replicate plots showed a high correspondence in the mortality, recruitment, population changes and growth rates of small trees for the 49 most abundant species in common to both. Overstorey species had higher rgrs than understorey ones, but both showed considerable ranges in mortality and recruitment rates. The supposed trade–off in traits, viz slower rgr, shade tolerance and lower population turnover in the understorey group versus faster potential growth rate, high light responsiveness and high turnover in the overstorey group, was only partly met, as some understorey species were also very dynamic. The forest at Danum, under such a disturbance–recovery regime, can be viewed as having a dynamic equilibrium in functional and structural terms. A second trade–off in shade–tolerance versus drought–tolerance is suggested for among the understorey species. A two–storey (or vertical component) model is proposed where the understorey–overstorey species’ ratio of small stems (currently 2:1) is maintained by a major feedback process. The understorey appears to be an important part of this forest, giving resilience against drought and protecting the overstorey saplings in the long term. This view could be valuable for understanding forest responses to climate change where drought frequency in Borneo is predicted to intensify in the coming decades.

n-Alkane analyses from an transect of marine surface sediments off southwest Africa

An isobathic transect of marine surface sediments from 1°N to 28°S off southwest Africa was used to further evaluate the potential of the chain length distribution and carbon stable isotope composition of higher plant n-alkanes as proxies for continental vegetation and climate conditions. We found a strong increase in the n-C29-33 weighted mean average d13C values from -33 per mil near the equator to around -26 per mil further south. Additionally, C25-35n-alkanes reveal a southward trend of increasing average chain length from 30.0 to 30.5. The data reflect the changing contribution of plants employing different photosynthetic pathways (C3 and C4) and/or being differently influenced by the environmental conditions of their habitat. The C4 plant proportions calculated from the data (ca. 20% for rivers draining the rainforest, to ca. 70% at higher latitude) correspond to the C4 plant abundance in continental catchment areas postulated by considering prevailing wind systems and river outflows. Furthermore, the C4 plant contribution to the sediments correlates with the mean annual precipitation and aridity at selected continental locations in the postulated catchment areas, suggesting that the C4 plant fraction in marine sediments can be used to assess these environmental parameters.

Holocene sea-surface reconstructions for the Californian margin

Time series of alkenone unsaturation indices gathered along the California margin reveal large (4° to 8°C) glacial-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 550,000 years. Interglacial times with SSTs equal to or exceeding that of the Holocene contain peak abundances in the pollen of redwood, the distinctive component of the temperate rainforest of the northwest coast of California. In the region now dominated by the California Current, SSTs warmed 10,000 to 15,000 years in advance of deglaciation at each of the past five glacial maxima. SSTs did not rise in advance of deglaciation south of the modern California Current front. Glacial warming along the California margin therefore is a regional signal of the weakening of the California Current during times when large ice sheets reorganized wind systems over the North Pacific. Both the timing and magnitude of the SST estimates suggest that the Devils Hole (Nevada) calcite record represents regional but not global paleotemperatures, and hence does not pose a fundamental challenge to the orbital ("Milankovitch") theory of the Ice Ages.

Palynology of marine sediment cores from the West African coast

Seven sediment cores from the cruises of the "Meteor" and "Valdivia" were examined palynologically. The cores were retrieved from the lower continental slope in the area of between 33.5° N and 8° N, off the West African coast. Most of the cores contain sediments from the last Glacial and Interglacial period. In some cases, the Holocene sediments are missing. Some individual cores contain sediments also from earlier Glacial and Interglacial periods. The main reason for making this palynological study was to find out the differences between the vegetation of Glacial and Interglacial periods in those parts of West Africa which at present belong to the Mediterranean zone, the Sahara and the zones of the savannas and tropical forests. In today's Mediterranean vegetation zone at core 33.5° N, forests and deciduous forests in particular, are missing during Glacial conditions. Semi-deserts are found instead of these. In the early isotope stage 1, there is a very significant development of forests which contain evergreen oaks; this is the Mediterranean type of vegestation development. The Sahara type of vegetation development is shown in four cores from between 27° N and 19° N. The differences between Glacial and Interglacial periods are very small. It must be assumed therefore that in this latitudes, both Glacial and Interglacial conditions gave rise to desert generally. The results are in favour of a slightly more arid climate during Glacial and more humid one during Interglacial periods. The southern boundary of the Sahara and the adjacent savannas with grassland and tropical woods were situated more to the south during the Glacial periods than they were during the Interglacial ones. In front of today's savanna belt, it can be seen from the palynological results that there are considerable differences between the vegetation of Glacial and Interglacial periods. The woods are more important in Interglacial periods. During the Glacial periods these are replaced from north to south decreasingly by grassland (savanna and rainforest type of vegetation development). The southern limit of the Sahara during stage 2 was somewhat between 12° N and 8° N which is between 1.5 and 5 degrees in latitude further south than it i s today. Not only do these differences in climate and vegetation apply to the maximum of the last Glacial and for the Holocene, but they apparently apply also to the older Glacial and Interglacial periods, where they have been found in the profiles. The North African deset belt can be said to have expanded during Glacial times both towards the north and towards the south. All the available evidence of this study indicates that the grass land or the semi-desert of the Southern Europe cam einto connection with those of the N Africa; there could not have been any forest zone between them. The present study was also a good opportunity for investigating some of the basic marine palynological problems. The very well known overrepresentation of pollen grains of the genus Pinus in marine sediments can be traced as fa as 21° N. The present southern limit for the genus Pinus is on the Canaries and on the African continent as approximately 31° N. Highest values of Ephedra pollen grains even occur south of the main area of the present distribution of that genus. These does not seem to be any satisfactory explanation for this. In general, it would appear that the transport of pollen grains from the north is more important than transport from the south. The results so far, indicate strongly that further palynological studies are necessary. These should concentrate particularly on cores from between 33° N and 27° N as well as between 17° N and 10° N. It would also be useful to have a more detailed examination of sediments from the last Intergalcial period (substage 5 e). Absolute pollen counts and more general examination of surface samples would be desirable. Surface samples should be taken from the shelf down to the bottom of the continental slope in different latitudes.

Palynology, source vegetation, environment and age of ODP Site 188-1166 sediments

Twenty-three core catcher samples from Site 1166 (Hole 1166A) in Prydz Bay were analyzed for their palynomorph content, with the aims of determining the ages of the sequence penetrated, providing information on the vegetation of the Antarctic continent at this time, and determining the environments under which deposition occurred. Dinocysts, pollen and spores, and foraminiferal test linings were recovered from most samples in the interval from 142.5 to 362.03 meters below seafloor (mbsf). The interval from 142.5 to 258.72 mbsf yielded palynomorphs indicative of a middle-late Eocene age, equivalent to the lower-middle Nothofagidites asperus Zone of the Gippsland Basin of southeastern Australia. The Prydz Bay sequence represents the first well-dated section of this age from East Antarctica. Dinocysts belonging to the widespread "Transantarctic Flora" give a more confident late Eocene age for the interval 142.5-220.5 mbsf. The uppermost two cores within this interval, namely, those from 142.5 and 148.36 mbsf, show significantly higher frequencies of dinocysts than the cores below and suggest that an open marine environment prevailed at the time of deposition. The spore and pollen component may reflect a vegetation akin to the modern rainforest scrubs of Tasmania and New Zealand. Below 267 mbsf, sparse microfloras, mainly of spores and pollen, are equated with the Phyllocladidites mawsonii Zone of southeastern Australia, which is of Turonian to possibly Santonian age. Fluvial to marginal marine environments of deposition are suggested. The parent vegetation from this interval is here described as "Austral Conifer Woodland." The same Late Cretaceous microflora occurs in two of the cores above the postulated unconformity at 267 mbsf. In the core at 249.42 mbsf, the Late Cretaceous spores and pollen are uncontaminated by any Tertiary forms, suggesting that a clast of this older material has been sampled; such a clast may reflect transport by ice during the Eocene. At 258.72 mbsf, Late Cretaceous spores and pollen appear to have been recycled into the Eocene sediments.

Daily mean surface meteorology and river discharge in Central Sulawesi for the period 2002-2005

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest known natural interannual climate fluctuation. The most recent two extreme ENSO events of 1982/83 and 1997/98 severley hit the socio-economy of main parts of Indonesia. As the climate variability is not homogeneous over the whole Archipelago of Indonesia, ENSO events cause negative precipitation anomalies of diverse magnitude and uration in different regions. Understanding the hydrology of humid tropical catchments is an essential prerequisite to investigate the impact of climate variability on the catchment hydrology. Together with the quantitative assessment of future water resource changes they are essential tools to develop mitigation strategies on a catchment scale. These results can be integrated into long term Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) strategies. The general objective of this study is to investigate and quantify the impact of ENSO caused climate variability on the water balance and the implications for water resources of a mesoscale tropical catchment.

Appendix 7: List of species with their distribution ranges restricted to the corresponding phytogeographical region

Understanding species distribution patterns and the corresponding environmental determinants is a crucial step in the development of effective strategies for the conservation and management of plant communities and ecosystems. Therefore, a central prerequisite is the biogeographical and macroecological analysis of factors and processes that determine contemporary, potential, as well as future geographic distribution of species. This thesis has been conducted in the framework of the BIOMAPS-BIOTA project at the Nees Institute of Biodiversity of Plants, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The study investigated patterns of plants species richness and phytogeographic regions under contemporary environmental conditions and forecasted future climate change in the area of West Africa covering five countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. Firstly, geographic patterns of vascular plant species richness have been depicted at a relatively fine spatial resolution based on the potential distribution of 3,393 species. Species richness is closely related to the steep climatic gradient existing in the region with a high concentration of species in the most humid areas in the south and decreases towards the northern drier areas. The investigation of the effectiveness of the existing network of protected areas shows an overall good coverage of species in the study area. However, the proportion of covered species is considerably lower at national extent for some countries, thus calling for more protected areas in order to cover adequately a maximum number of plants species in these countries. Secondly, based on the potential distribution range of vascular plant species, seven phytogeographic regions have been delineated that broadly reflect the vegetation zones as defined by White (1983). However notable differences to the delineation of White (1983) occur at the margins of some regions. Corresponding to a general southward shifted of all regions. And expansion of the Sahel vegetation zone is observed in the north, while the rainforest zone is decreased in the very south.This is alarming since the rainforest shelters a high number of species and a high proportion of range-restricted or endemic species, despite their relatively small extent compared to the other regions. Finally, the evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on plant species richness in the study area, results in a severe loss of future suitable habitat for up to 50% of species per grid cell, particularly in the rainforest region. Moreover, the analysis of the possible shift of phytogeographic regions shows in general a strong deterioration of the West African rainforest. In contrast the drier areas are expanding continuously, although a slight gain in species number can be observed in some particular regions. The overall lesson to retain from the results of this study is that the West African rainforest should be fixed as a high priority area for the conservation of biodiversity of plants, since it is subject to severe contemporary and projected future threats.

Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.