The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.

A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: integrating economic and ecological aspects

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases reflects the interaction of ecological and economic factors within an adaptive complex system. We review studies that address the role of economic factors in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and identify three broad themes. First, the process of macro-economic growth leads to environmental encroaching, which is related to the emergence of infectious diseases. Second, there are a number of mutually reinforcing processes associated with the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. For example, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can cause significant economic damages, which in turn may create the conditions for further disease spread. Also, the existence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between global trade and macroeconomic growth amplifies the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. Third, microeconomic approaches to infectious disease point to the adaptivity of human behavior, which simultaneously shapes the course of epidemics and responds to it. Most of the applied research has been focused on the first two aspects, and to a lesser extent on the third aspect. With respect to the latter, there is a lack of empirical research aimed at characterizing the behavioral component following a disease outbreak. Future research should seek to fill this gap and develop hierarchical econometric models capable of integrating both macro and micro-economic processes into disease ecology.

Property loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate

Winter storms of the midlatitudes are an important factor for property losses caused by natural hazards over Europe. The storm series in early 1990 and late 1999 led to enormous economic damages and insured claims. Although significant trends in North Atlantic/European storm activity have not been identified for the last few decades, recent studies provide evidence that under anthropogenic climate change the number of extreme storms could increase, whereas the total number of cyclones may be slightly reduced. In this study, loss potentials derived from an ensemble of climate models using a simple storm damage model under climate change conditions are shown. For the United Kingdom and Germany ensemble-mean storm-related losses are found to increase by up to 37%. Furthermore, the interannual variability of extreme events will increase leading to a higher risk of extreme storm activity and related losses.

Increasing doxorubicin activity against breast cancer cells using PPARγ-ligands and by exploiting circadian rhythms

Doxorubicin is effective against breast cancer, but its major side effect is cardiotoxicity. The aim of this study was to determine whether the efficacy of doxorubicin on cancer cells could be increased in combination with PPARγ agonists or chrono-optimization by exploiting the diurnal cycle. We determined cell toxicity using MCF-7 cancer cells, neonatal rat cardiac myocytes and fibroblasts in this study. Doxorubicin damages the contractile filaments of cardiac myocytes and affects cardiac fibroblasts by significantly inhibiting collagen production and proliferation at the level of the cell cycle. Cyclin D1 protein levels decreased significantly following doxorubicin treatment indicative of a G1 /S arrest. PPARγ agonists with doxorubicin increased the toxicity to MCF-7 cancer cells without affecting cardiac cells. Rosiglitazone and ciglitazone both enhanced anti-cancer activity when combined with doxorubicin (e.g. 50% cell death for doxorubicin at 0.1 μM compared to 80% cell death when combined with rosiglitazone). Thus, the therapeutic dose of doxorubicin could be reduced by 20-fold through combination with the PPARγ agonists, thereby reducing adverse effects on the heart. The presence of melatonin also significantly increased doxorubicin toxicity, in cardiac fibroblasts (1 μM melatonin) but not in MCF-7 cells. Our data show, for the first time, that circadian rhythms play an important role in doxorubicin toxicity in the myocardium; doxorubicin should be administered mid-morning, when circulating levels of melatonin are low, and in combination with rosiglitazone to increase therapeutic efficacy in cancer cells while reducing the toxic effects on the heart.

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Characterising loss and damage from climate change

Policy-makers are creating mechanisms to help developing countries cope with loss and damage from climate change, but the negotiations are largely neglecting scientific questions about what the impacts of climate change actually are. Mitigation efforts have failed to prevent the continued increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptation is now unlikely to be sufficient to prevent negative impacts from current and future climate change1. In this context, vulnerable nations argue that existing frameworks to promote mitigation and adaptation are inadequate, and have called for a third international mechanism to deal with residual climate change impacts, or “loss and damage”2. In 2013, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) responded to these calls and established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries3. An interim Executive Committee of party representatives has been set up, and is currently drafting a two-year workplan comprising meetings, reports, and expert groups; and aiming to enhance knowledge and understanding of loss and damage, strengthen dialogue among stakeholders, and promote enhanced action and support. Issues identified as priorities for the WIM thus far include: how to deal with non-economic losses, such as loss of life, livelihood, and cultural heritage; and linkages between loss and damage and patterns of migration and displacement2. In all this, one fundamental issue still demands our attention: which losses and damages are relevant to the WIM? What counts as loss and damage from climate change?

Political culture and corporate homicide liability in the UK and Europe

This chapter outlines recent developments in the emergence within Europe of systems of criminal law designed to hold corporate bodies liable where they cause the deaths of workers or members of the public. These changes point to the emergence of a new, more punitive, legal culture in relation to corporate crime. At the same time, however, there is evidence to suggest that this punitive culture is not uniform; different national jurisdictions reflect it to differing degrees. The chapter explores the degree to which the UK’s willingness to criminalise work-related deaths is mirrored elsewhere in Europe, and identifies some factors that might account for variations in this regard. In particular, attention is paid to the influence that social and political culture have on practices in this area. It is written as part of a research handbook on corporate crime in Europe, so has an eye on a more generalist audience in some regards.

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.

South Africa and constructive engagement: lessons learned?

There has been much criticism of President Mbeki's policy of constructive engagement towards Mugabe's regime in Zimbabwe. This has grown since 2000 as the crisis has continued to worsen. This article compares Pretoria's current approach with the Reagan administration's constructive engagement towards Pretoria in the 1980s. Washington made a number of significant mistakes in the design and implementation of this policy and each of these is examined. An investigation of Mbeki's actions concludes that he is currently committing many of the same errors. Not only does this damage Mbeki's credibility, it also damages the credibility of a vital diplomatic tool - reducing constructive engagement once again to a diplomatic fig leaf to cover 'business as usual' with a rogue state.

Information and punitiveness: trial reconstruction in Ireland

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a rape trial reconstruction in Ireland. Design/methodology/approach – A studio audience of 100 members of the Irish public were selected to attend a TV programme by the Republic of Ireland’s national broadcasting organisation. This involved the examination of the sentencing of a rape case. The audience’s sentencing preferences were measured at the outset, when they had been given only summary information about the case, and later, when full details had been disclosed. Findings – Previous research examining changes in public attitudes to crime and punishment has shown that deliberation, including the provision of new information and discussion with others and experts, tends to decrease public punitiveness and increase public leniency towards sentencing. An experiment in Ireland, however, showed that providing information does not invariably and necessarily moderate punitive attitudes. This paper presents the results, and offers some explanations for the anomalous outcome. Research limitations/implications – The pre/post design, in which the audience served as their own controls, is a weak one, and participants may have responded to what they took to be the agenda of the producers. Due to the quality of the sample, the results may not be generalisable to the broader Irish population. Practical implications – Policy makers should recognise that the public is not uniformly punitive for all crimes. There is good research evidence to show that the apparent public appetite for tough punishment is illusory, and is a function of the way that polls measure public attitudes to punishment. Sentencers and those responsible for sentencing policy would benefit from a fuller understanding of the sorts of cases which illicit strong punitive responses from the public, and the reasons for this response. However any such understanding should not simply translate into responsiveness to the public’s punitive sentiments – where these exist. Innovative survey methods – like this experiment – which attempt to look beyond the top-of-the-head opinions by providing information and opportunities for deliberation should be welcomed and used more widely. Originality/value – There have been limited research studies which reports factors which may increase punitiveness through the provision of information and deliberation.

Controlling ivy attachment to wall surfaces by applying paints, metal meshes and sheets

Growing ivy around buildings has benefits. However, ivy potentially damages buildings which limit its use. Options for preventing ivy attachment were investigated to provide ivy management alternatives. Indoor and outdoor experiments were conducted, where metals (Cu, Zn) and anti-graffiti paints were applied to model wall panels. Metal treatments, in both indoor and outdoor experiments, fully prevented ivy attachment. For Hedera helix, silane-based anti-graffiti paint prevented attachment in the laboratory and required under half the peak detachment force necessary to detach the control in the outdoor experiment. In conclusion, metals and silane-based paint are management possibilities for ivy attachment around buildings.

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Critical involvement of Th1-related cytokines in renal injuries induced by ischemia and reperfusion

Renal ischemia and reperfusion injury (IRI) is considered an inflammatory syndrome. To move forward in its pathogenesis, we exploited the role of several cytokines on renal damages triggered by IRI. Specifically to evaluate the role of Th1 immune profile in this system, IL-12, IFN-gamma, and IFN-gamma/IL-12 deficient (KO) mice on C57BL/6 background and their controls were subjected to IRI. In each group, blood and kidney samples were harvested. Renal function was evaluated by serum creatinine and renal morphometric analyses. Gene expression of IL-6 and HO-1 were also investigated by Q-PCR. IFN-gamma KO animals presented the highest impairment in renal function compared to controls. Conversely, IL-12 KO animals were absolutely protected and, in a lesser extent, IFN-gamma/IL-12 KO double knockout was also protected from IRI. Gene expression analyses showed higher expression of HO-1, a cytoprotective gene, and IL-6, a pro-inflammatory cytokine, in IFN-gamma deficient animals subjected to IRI. Our results confirm that Th1 related cytokines such as IL-12 and IFN-gamma are critically involved in renal ischemia and reperfusion injury. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The genotoxic effects of DNA lesions induced by artificial UV-radiation and sunlight

Solar radiation sustains and affects all life forms on Earth. The increase in solar UV-radiation at environmental levels, due to depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, highlights serious issues of social concern. This becomes still more dramatic in tropical and subtropical regions where radiation-intensity is still higher. Thus, there is the need to evaluate the harmful effects of solar UV-radiation on the DNA molecule as a basis for assessing the risks involved for human health, biological productivity and ecosystems. In order to evaluate the profile of DNA damage induced by this form of radiation and its genotoxic effects, plasmid DNA samples were exposed to artificial-UV lamps and directly to sunlight. The induction of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimer photoproducts (CPDs) and oxidative DNA damage in these molecules were evaluated by means of specific DNA repair enzymes. On the other hand, the biological effects of such lesions were determined through the analysis of the DNA inactivation rate and mutation frequency, after replication of the damaged pCMUT vector in an Escherichia coli MBL50 strain. The results indicated the induction of a significant number of CPDs after exposure to increasing doses of UVC, UVB, UVA radiation and sunlight. Interestingly, these photoproducts are those lesions that better correlate with plasmid inactivation as well as mutagenesis, and the oxidative DNA damages induced present very low correlation with these effects. The results indicated that DNA photoproducts play the main role in the induction of genotoxic effects by artificial UV-radiation sources and sunlight. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Infrared analysis of ion beam irradiated polymers

Irradiation with heavy ions can produce several modifications in the chain structure of polymers. These modifications can be related to scissioning and cross-linking of chemical bonds. which depend on the ion fluence and the density of energy deposited in the material. Stacked thin film Makrofol-KG (R) samples were irradiated with 350 MeV Au(26+) ions and FTIR absorption spectroscopy was used to determine the bond changes in the samples. Data on the absorption bands as a function of the fluence indicated a higher probability for simple-bonds scissioning than for double-bonds scissioning and no dependence on the number of double bonds breaking with ion fluence. Since sample irradiation was done in a non-track-overlapping regime, a novel process for double bonds formation is suggested: the excitation of a site in the material by only one incident ion followed by a double bond formation during the de-excitation process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.