Map of homicides by firearms: profile of the victims and the assaults

AbstractOBJECTIVEDescribing the profile of victims and assaults by gunshot, where the outcome was death.METHODAn ecological study conducted in the city of Maceió/AL, in 2012. Data were collected from the death statements. The variables studied were: the death circumstances, gender, age, marital status, place, date, time, month and proportion according to the occurring neighborhood.RESULTSThe homicide mortality rate was 65.2 per 100,000 inhabitants, with 130.6 per 100,000 men and 7.8 per 100,000 women. Of the total number of homicides, 93.6% of the victims were men. The age group between 15 and 29 years of age was the most affected, with 68.8%. In 97.6% of cases the death occurred at the site of aggression, 74.1% in the streets. In relation to the date, 54.2% of cases occurred between Friday and Sunday. 59.7% of the homicides were concentrated in seven neighborhoods.CONCLUSIONThe map of violence presented shows heterogeneous areas for the occurrence of assaults with firearms, characterizing the existing urban inequality in violence distribution.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

High-growth cooperatives: Financial profile and key factors for competitiveness

Given the current economic environment, high-growth companies are particularly relevant for their contribution to employment generation and wealth.This paper discusses the results of a survey that was conducted in order to gain a deeper understanding of high-growth cooperatives through analyzing their financial profiles and then identifying key contributing factors to their growth. To do this, we compared this particular sample with other cooperatives and other high-growth mercantile companies.The results show the main drivers related to high-growth companies success. They are the competitive advantages based on the surveyed group, modern management techniques, quality and productivity, innovation and internationalization. Additionally, we have observed some financial strengths and weaknesses. In this sense, they are under capitalized companies with an unbalanced growth.

Improving the sensitivity of the sequence profile method.

The sequence profile method (Gribskov M, McLachlan AD, Eisenberg D, 1987, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 84:4355-4358) is a powerful tool to detect distant relationships between amino acid sequences. A profile is a table of position-specific scores and gap penalties, providing a generalized description of a protein motif, which can be used for sequence alignments and database searches instead of an individual sequence. A sequence profile is derived from a multiple sequence alignment. We have found 2 ways to improve the sensitivity of sequence profiles: (1) Sequence weights: Usage of individual weights for each sequence avoids bias toward closely related sequences. These weights are automatically assigned based on the distance of the sequences using a published procedure (Sibbald PR, Argos P, 1990, J Mol Biol 216:813-818). (2) Amino acid substitution table: In addition to the alignment, the construction of a profile also needs an amino acid substitution table. We have found that in some cases a new table, the BLOSUM45 table (Henikoff S, Henikoff JG, 1992, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 89:10915-10919), is more sensitive than the original Dayhoff table or the modified Dayhoff table used in the current implementation. Profiles derived by the improved method are more sensitive and selective in a number of cases where previous methods have failed to completely separate true members from false positives.

Severe stroke: patient profile and predictors of favorable outcome.

Summary.  Background:  Severe stroke carries high rates of mortality and morbidity. The aims of this study were to determine the characteristics of patients who initially presented with severe ischemic stroke, and to identify acute and subacute predictors of favorable clinical outcome in these patients. Methods:  An observational cohort study, Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), was analyzed, and all patients presenting with severe stroke - defined as a National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score of ≥ 20 on admission - were compared with all other patients. In a multivariate analysis, associations with demographic, clinical, pathophysiologic, metabolic and neuroimaging factors were determined. Furthermore, we analyzed predictors of favorable outcome (modified Rankin scale score of ≤ 3 at 3 months) in the subgroup of severe stroke patients. Results:  Of 1915 consecutive patients, 243 (12.7%) presented with severe stroke. This was significantly associated with cardio-embolic stroke mechanism (odds ratio [OR] 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-2.54), unknown stroke onset (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.14-4.83), more neuroimaging signs of early ischemia (mostly computed tomography; OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.79-3.92), arterial occlusions on acute imaging (OR 27.01, 95% CI 11.5-62.9), fewer chronic radiologic infarcts (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.26-0.72), lower hemoglobin concentration (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99), and higher white cell count (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11). In the 68 (28%) patients with favorable outcomes despite presenting with severe stroke, this was predicted by lower age (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.97), preceding cerebrovascular events (OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.01-8.97), hypolipemic pretreatment (OR 3.82, 95% CI 1.34-10.90), lower acute temperature (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.78), lower subacute glucose concentration (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.56-0.97), and spontaneous or treatment-induced recanalization (OR 4.51, 95% CI 1.96-10.41). Conclusions:  Severe stroke presentation is predicted by multiple clinical, radiologic and metabolic variables, several of which are modifiable. Predictors in the 28% of patients with favorable outcome despite presenting with severe stroke include hypolipemic pretreatment, lower acute temperature, lower glucose levels at 24 h, and arterial recanalization.

The clinical profile of idiopathic and cat scratch neuroretinitis: who is at risk for recurrence?

Background: Most cases of neuroretinitis (NR) are idiopathic or due to cat scratch disease and occur as a single episode but a subgroup of patients experience recurrent attacks with cumulative visual loss. We reviewed our cases of NR to better characterize the clinical features of these subgroups in an effort to predict the risk of recurrence. Methods: Retrospective study of NR patients from a single institution. Sixty-seven patients were divided into three groups: 22 cases due to cat scratch disease (CSD-NR), 24 with idiopathic neuroretinitis (I-NR) and 21 (23 eyes) with recurrent neuroretinitis (R-NR). Results: Preceding systemic symptoms, predominantly central visual field (VF) loss and the combination of poor acuity with small relative afferent pupillary defect at presentation were common features of CSD-NR. There were no cases of recurrent CSD-NR. In the first attack of R-NR, the magnitude of VF loss at presentation was greater compared to the other two groups. While 39% of R-NR had a pattern of VF loss other than a central or cecocentral scotoma, only 13.6% of CSD-NR and 17% of I-NR showed this pattern. Visual recovery was least substantial for the R-NR group (average gain of 3.7 lines of Snellen acuity vs. 5 and 6.4 lines for CSD-NR and I-NR, respectively, and an average gain in VF score of 5.1 in the R-NR group compared to 8.2 and 11.5 for the other two groups). Conclusion: The main predictive factors for recurrence are absence of systemic symptoms, significant VF loss at presentation, particularly loss outside the central 30°, and less substantial visual recovery.

Regulating financial conglomerates

We investigate the optimal regulation of financial conglomerates which combinea bank and a non-bank financial institution. The conglomerate s risk-taking incentivesdepend upon the level of market discipline it faces, which in turn isdetermined by the conglomerate s liability strucure. We examine optimal capitalrequirements for standalone institutions, for integrated financial conglomerates,and for financial conglomerates that are structured as holding companies.For a given risk profile, integrated conglomerates have a lower probability offailure than either their standalone or decentralised equivalent. However, whenrisk profiles are endogenously selected conglomeration may extend the reachof the deposit insurance safety net and hence provide incentives for increasedrisk-taking. As a result, integrated conglomerates may optimally attract highercapital requirements. In contrast, decentralised conglomerates are able to holdassets in the socially most efficient place. Their optimal capital requirementsencourage this. Hence, the practice of regulatory arbitrage , or of transferingassets from one balance sheet to another, is welfare-increasing. We discuss thepolicy implications of our finding in the context not only of the present debateon the regulation of financial conglomerates but also in the light of existingUS bank holding company regulation.

Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Optimal magnitude and probability of fines

The economic literature on crime and punishment focuses on the trade-off between probability and severity of punishment, and suggests that detection probability and fines are substitutes. In this paper it is shown that, in presence of substantial underdeterrence caused by costly detection and punishment, these instruments may become complements. When offenders are poor, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is low. Thus, the government does not invest a lot in detection. If offenders are rich, however, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is high, so it is more profitable to prosecute them.

English as a world language: its role as a lingua francaa sociolinguistic profile of students of secondary schools in Santiago Island, in the Archipelago of Cape Verde

Esta tese centra-se em aspectos relevantes do inglês como uma língua universal, no actual contexto globalizado e examina possíveis mudanças relacionadas com o seu uso, em especial no continente africano, particularmente no caso de Cabo Verde, no sentido de ponderar eventuais alternativas nas pedagogias linguísticas no ensino desta língua que impliquem uma adaptação à realidade contemporânea. Uma vez que, nos nossos tempos, o inglês é a língua de eleição para a comunicação intercultural entre povos com várias experiências culturais e linguísticas, o conhecimento deste idioma torna-se, a cada dia que passa, impreterível e indispensável, na interacção intercultural. Em África, as funções desempenhadas pelo inglês são complexas; além da língua inglesa ser usada para comunicação entre etnias, com o estatuto de língua franca, também tem o papel de preservar a identidade nacional e de estabelecer a unidade entre os povos da mesma nação. Por conseguinte, é de considerar talvez ainda com mais pertinência, a adopção de uma nova filosofia de pedagogia de ensino que permita dotar os seus cidadãos de capacidades que lhes possibilitem comunicar de forma inteligível com povos de outras culturas e línguas. O primeiro capítulo aborda aspectos teóricos relacionados com a expansão, comunicação e mudança associadas à língua inglesa e suas implicações no ensino em países onde esta não é língua nativa (L1). O segundo capítulo reflecte, em primeiro lugar, sobre a situação linguística em África e as línguas francas predominantes no continente, incluindo a língua inglesa. Considera também questões relacionadas com o multilinguismo e a identidade, bem como assuntos relacionados com as implicações da diversidade linguística para a educação dos povos africanos.

Profile of male adolescents with conduct disorder on intellectual efficacy, cognitive flexibility, cognitive coping, impulsivity and alexithymia: a comparison with high-risk controls

Background and Objectives: To specify which of the documented cognitive and emotional deficits characterize adolescents with conduct disorder (CD) compared with high-risk controls. Methods: High-risk adolescent males with and without CD were compared on intellectual efficiency, cognitive flexibility, impulsivity, alexithymia, and cognitive coping strategies. Substance use was controlled for in analyses. Results: Both groups showed normal intellectual efficiency and cognitive flexibility, as weil as heightened alexithymia and bebavioral impulsivity. Youths with CD evidenced more self-defeating and black-and-white tbinking under stress, and more acting-out under negative affect, than those without CD. Conclusions: Deficits specifie to CD resided in facets of emotional functioning and cognitive coping that might be targeted by a coping skills intervention.

The influence of environmental conditions on immune responses, morphology and recapture probability of nestling house martins (Delichon urbica)

Nestling birds produced later in the season are hypothesized to be of poor quality with a low probability of survival and recruitment. In a Spanish population of house martins (Delichon urbica), we first compared reproductive success, immune responses and morphological traits between the first and the second broods. Second, we investigated the effects of an ectoparasite treatment and breeding date on the recapture rate the following year. Due probably to a reverse situation in weather conditions during the experiment, with more rain during rearing of the first brood, nestlings reared during the second brood were in better condition and had stronger immune responses compared with nestlings from the first brood. Contrary to other findings on house martins, we found a similar recapture rate for chicks reared during the first and the second brood. Furthermore, ectoparasitic house martin bugs had no significant effect on the recapture rate. Recaptured birds had similar morphology but higher immunoglobulin levels when nestlings compared with non-recaptured birds. This result implies that a measure of immune function is a better predictor of survival than body condition per se.

State of Iowa Substance Use Epidemiological Profile, February 2008.

A report by the Iowa Epidemiological Outcome Workgroup showing the substance use epidemiological profile for the state of Iowa. The data shows the consumption patterns and consequences of adults and youths, males and females in Iowa.

Psychological profile of adolescents with a kidney transplant.

To describe the psychological profile of renal transplant adolescents compared to healthy peers and to adolescents with CKD, three groups of adolescents aged 12-18 yr were selected: TX, CX, and adolescents with CKD. Psychiatric symptoms and disorders were evaluated through direct interviews (K-SADS-PL) and self-report questionnaires (YSR and CBCL). Forty TX (14 LRD and 26 DD transplant recipients), 40 CX and 20 CKD were included. Twelve of 40 (30%) TX, three of 20 (15%) CKD, and three of 40 (7.5%) CX had a history of learning difficulties (p = 0.03). Compared to CX, TX had lower total YSR competencies score (p = 0.028) and lower total CBCL competencies score (p = 0.003). Twenty-six of 40 (65%) TX, 12 of 20 (60%) CKD and 15 of 40 (37.5%) CX (p = 0.038) met DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for lifetime psychiatric disorder, with rates of depressive disorder of 35% among TX and CKD compared to 15.2% among CX (p = 0.043). Eight of 40 (20%) TX had a history of simple phobia. Nine of 40 (22.5%) TX met diagnostic criteria for ADHD as compared to one of 20 (5%) CKD and three of 40 (7.5%) CX. In the TX group, we found no significant differences in educational and psychiatric variables between LRD and DD. In conclusion, we found a high prevalence of psychiatric morbidity (depression, phobia, ADHD), educational impairment and social competence problems in the TX group. CKD scored in between TX and CX on most measures.