Opioid overdose mortality in Australia, 1964-1997: birth-cohort trends

Objective: To examine trends in rates of opioid overdose deaths from 1964 to 1997 in different birth cohorts. Design: Age-period-cohort analysis of national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Main outcome measures: Annual population rates of death attributed to opioid dependence or accidental opioid poisoning in people aged 15-44 years, by sex and birth cohort tin five-year intervals, 1940-1944 to 1975-1979). Results: The rate of opioid overdose deaths increased 55-fold between 1964 and 1997, from 1.3 to 71.5 per million population aged 15-44 years. The rate of opioid overdose deaths also increased substantially over the eight birth cohorts, with an incidence rate ratio of 20.70 (95% confidence interval, 13.60-31.46) in the 1975-1979 cohort compared with the 1940-1944 cohort. The age at which the cumulative rate of opioid overdose deaths reached 300 per million fell in successive cohorts (for men, from 28 years among those born 1955-1959 to 22 years among those born 1965-1974; for women, from 33 years among those born 1955-1959 to 27 years among those born 1965-1969). Conclusions: Heroin use in Australia largely began in the early 1970s and rates of heroin use have markedly increased in birth cohorts born since 1950.

Cohort trends in youth suicide in Australia 1964-1997

Objective: This paper examines trends in the rate of suicide among young Australians aged 15-24 years from 1964 to 1997 and presents an age-period-cohort analysis of these trends. Method: Study design consisted of an age-period-cohort analysis of suicide mortality in Australian youth aged between 15 and 24 for the years 1964-1997 inclusive. Data sources were Australian Bureau of Statistics data on: numbers of deaths due to suicide by gender and age at death; and population at risk in each of eight birth cohorts (1940-1944, 1945-1949, 1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969, 1970-1974, and 1975-1979). Main outcome measures were population rates of deaths among males and females in each birth cohort attributed to suicide in each year 1964-1997. Results: The rate of suicide deaths among Australian males aged 15-24 years increased from 8.7 per 100 000 in 1964 to 30.9 per 100 000 in 1997, with the rate among females changing little over the period, from 5.2 per 100 000 in 1964 to 7.1 per 100 000 in 1997. While the rate of deaths attributed to suicide increased over the birth cohorts, analyses revealed that these increases were largely due to period effects, with suicide twice as likely among those aged 15-24 years in 1985-1997 than between 1964 and 1969. Conclusions: The rate of youth suicide in Australia has increased since 1964, particularly among males. This increase can largely be attributed to period effects rather than to a cohort effect and has been paralleled by an increased rate of youth suicides internationally and by an increase in other psychosocial problems including psychiatric illness, criminal offending and substance use disorders.

Youth suicide trends in Australian metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, 1988-1997

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine trends in suicide among 15-34-year-olds living in Australian metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas between 1988 and 1997. Method: Suicide and population data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We calculated overall and method-specific suicide rates for 15-24 and 25-34-year-old males and females separately, according to area of residence defined as non-metropolitan (less than or equal to 20 000 people) or metropolitan. Results: Between 1988 and 1997 suicide rates in 15-24-year-old non-metropolitan males were consistently 50% higher than metropolitan 15-24-year-olds. In 1995-1997, for example, the rates were: 38.2 versus 25.1 per 100 000 respectively (p < 0.0001). The reverse pattern was seen in 25-34-year-old females with higher rates in metropolitan areas (7.5 per 100 000) compared with non-metropolitan areas (6.1 per 100 000, p = 0.21) in 1995-1997. There were no significant differences according to area of residence in 25-34-year-old males or 15-24-year-old females. Over the years studied we found no clear evidence that suicide rates increased to a greater extent in rural than urban areas. Rates of hanging suicide have approximately doubled in both sexes and age groups in both settings over this time. Despite an approximate halving in firearm suicide, rates remain 3-fold higher among non-metropolitan residents. Conclusion: Non-metropolitan males aged 15-24 years have disproportionately higher rates of suicide than their metropolitan counterparts. Reasons for this require further investigation. Hanging is now the most favoured method of non-metropolitan suicide replacing firearms from 10 years ago. Although legislation may reduce method-specific suicide the potential for method-substitution means that overall rates may not fall. More comprehensive interventions are therefore required.

Are we too busy to volunteer? The relationship between time and volunteering using the 1997 ABS Time Use Data

Time availability is a key concept in relation to volunteering, leading to organisations and governments targeting those outside paid work as a potential source of volunteers. It may be that factors such as a growth in female participation in the labour market and an increase in work hours will lead to more people saying they are simply too busy to volunteer This paper discusses how social and economic change, such as changing work patterns, are impacting on time availability. Using the 1997 ABS Time Use data, it identifies a predictive model of spare time by looking at demographic, life stage and employment related variables. Results confirm that those outside paid work, particularly the young, males and those without partners or children, are the groups most likely to have time to spare. These groups do not currently report high rates of volunteering. The paper concludes by questioning the premise that people will volunteer simply because they have time to spare. This is just one component of a range of motivations and factors that influence the decision to volunteer.

Patterns of co-morbidity between alcohol use and other substance use in the Australian population

The present study describes patterns of co-morbidity between alcohol use and other substance use problems in the Australian population using data from the 1997 National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being. Multiple regression analyses examined whether the observed associations between alcohol and other drug use disorders were explained by other variables, including demographic characteristics and neuroticism. We also assessed whether the presence of co-morbid substance use disorders affected treatment seeking for a mental health problem. Alcohol use was related strongly to the use of other substances. Those who did not report alcohol use within the past 12 months were less likely to report using tobacco, cannabis, sedatives, stimulants or opiates. Higher rates again were observed among those with alcohol use disorders: half (51%) of those who were alcohol-dependent were regular tobacco smokers, one-third had used cannabis (32%); 15% reported other drug use; 15% met criteria for a cannabis use disorder and 7% met criteria for another drug use disorder. These associations were not accounted for by the demographic and other variables considered here. Co-morbid substance use disorders (sedatives, stimulants or opioids) predicted a high likelihood of seeking treatment for a mental health problem among alcohol-dependent people.

The coincidences of time travel

In this paper I consider two objections raised by Nick Smith (1997) to an argument against the probability of time travel given by Paul Horwich (1995, 1987). Horwich argues that time travel leads to inexplicable and improbable coincidences. I argue that one of Smith's objections fails, but that another is correct. I also consider an instructive way to defend Horwich's argument against the second of Smith's objections, but show that it too fails. I conclude that unless there is something faulty in the conception of explanation implicit in Horwich's argument, time travel presents us with nothing that is inexplicable.

In Australia are people born in other countries at higher risk of road trauma than locally born people?

This study examined whether people born in other countries had higher rates of death and hospitalization due to road crashes than people born in Australia. Data on deaths that occurred in the whole of Australia between 1994 and 1997 and hospitalizations that occurred in the state of New South Wales, Australia, between I July 1995 and 30 June 1997 due to road crashes were analyzed. The rates of death and hospitalization, adjusted for age and area of residence, were calculated using population data from the 1996 Australian census. The study categorized people born in other countries according to the language (English speaking, non-English speaking) and the road convention (left-hand side, right-hand side) of their country of birth. Australia has the left-hand side driving convention. The study found that drivers born in other countries had rates of death or hospitalization due to road trauma equal to or below those of Australian born drivers. In contrast, pedestrians born in other countries, especially older pedestrians had higher rates of death and hospitalization due to road crashes. Pedestrians aged 60 years or more born in non-English speaking countries where traffic travels on the right-hand side of the road had risks about twice those of Australian born pedestrians in the same age group. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Corruption and the size of government: causality tests for OECD and Latin American countries

The purpose of this article is to examine the causality between government size and corruption, and to verify if there is a different pattern of causality between developed Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (excluding Mexico) and developing countries (Latin American countries) during the period 1996 to 2003. Applying Granger and Huang`s (1997) methodology we find evidence that size of government Granger causes corruption in both samples. Since a larger government involvement in private markets today will be followed in future by a higher level of corruption a policy advice would be to enhance governance. The promotion of good governance helps to combat corruption given that it complements efforts to reduce corruption more directly, and it is strongly recommended by the International Monetary Fund, other multilateral institutions, and all worried with the negative impacts of corruption on economic activity.

Low prenatal vitamin D alters morphology, cell density and gene expression in adult rat brain: Correlations with schizophrenia

Statement of the study: Based on data from ecological and analytic epidemiological studies, we have proposed that low prenatal vitamin D is a candidate risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia. Previously, we demonstrated that low prenatal vitamin D adversely affected brain development in neonatal rats (Eyles et al, 2003). Here we examine the impact of both prenatal and early life hypovitaminosis D on various outcomes in the adult rat brain. Methods: Female Sprague-Dawley rats were made vitamin D deficient via the use of a special diet (Dyets CA) and lighting conditions that excluded UVB radiation. Animals were kept under these conditions for 6 weeks then mated with males kept under normal conditions. Vitamin deplete dams were kept under these conditions during pregnancy. Offspring from two test groups were examined. Offspring were either reared with dams repleted with vitamin D at birth or remained under deplete conditions till weaning. Both test groups were weaned under normal vitamin D conditions and remained so till testing at adulthood. We compared the brains of adult offspring kept under both test conditions with animals from control environments. Summary of results: We found a significant persistent dose-related increase in lateral ventricle volume and alterations in anterior cingulate and prefrontal cortical cell densities (consistent with the known prodifferentiation properties of this steroid). In both test groups we observed a reduced expression of NGF as well as a down-regulation of transcripts coding for GABAA alpha 4 receptor and two neuronal structural elements; MAP2 and Neurofilament L. Conclusion: These findings provide further evidence that vitamin D is involved in brain development. An increase in prefrontal cortical cell density, a reduction neuronal structural elements and persistent ventriculomegaly are all common anatomical findings in the brains of patients with schizophrenia. The specific reduction in transcripts for neuronal structural proteins but not GFAP is also in accordance with the proposal that frontal cortical architecture in schizophrenia reflects a reduction in connectivity rather than a reduction in glial processes(Goldman-Rakic and Selemon, 1997). These findings confirm the biological plausibility of early life hypovitaminosis D as a risk factor for schizophrenia.

A prospective study evaluating the efficacy of the artificial sphincter AMS 800 for the treatment of postradical prostatectomy urinary incontinence and the correlation between preoperative urodynamic and surgical outcomes

OBJECTIVES We have evaluated prospectively the long-term efficacy of the artificial urinary sphincter (AUS) AMS 800 for the treatment postradical prostatectomy urinary incontinence (PRPUI) patients. We also evaluated the correlation between preoperative urodynamic findings and surgical outcomes. METHODS From May 1997 to April 2003, 40 consecutive patients with PRPUI caused by intrinsic sphincter deficiency (ISD) were treated with the AMS 800. Mean age was 68.3 +/- 6.3 years. Continence status was evaluated on the basis of pad count, impact of urinary incontinence on the quality of life, complications, and surgical revisions. Preoperative urodynamic findings were correlated with surgical outcomes. RESULTS Follow-up ranged from 27 to 132 months (mean = 53.4 +/- 21.4 months). There was a significant reduction in pad count from 4.0 +/- 0.9 to 0.62 +/- 1.07 diapers per day (P <0.001) leading to continence in 90%. There was a significant reduction on the impact of incontinence decreasing from 5.0 +/- 0.7 to 1.4 +/- 0.93 (P <0.001) in a visual analogue scale (VAS). Surgical revision rate was 20%. Preoperative urodynamics was useful to identify sphincter deficiency. Except by a tendency of worse results in patients with reduced bladder compliance (RBC), other urodynamic parameters did not correlate with a worse surgical outcome. CONCLUSIONS The AMS 800 offers good long-term continence to most PRPUI patients. Preoperative findings like detrusor hyperactivity (DH), impaired detrusor contraction (IDC), low Valsalva leak point pressure, bladder outlet obstruction (BOO), and mild RBC were not associated with worse surgical outcomes.