Real-time analysis of δ13C- and δD-CH4 in ambient air with laser spectroscopy: method development and first intercomparison results

In situ and simultaneous measurement of the three most abundant isotopologues of methane using mid-infrared laser absorption spectroscopy is demonstrated. A field-deployable, autonomous platform is realized by coupling a compact quantum cascade laser absorption spectrometer (QCLAS) to a preconcentration unit, called trace gas extractor (TREX). This unit enhances CH4 mole fractions by a factor of up to 500 above ambient levels and quantitatively separates interfering trace gases such as N2O and CO2. The analytical precision of the QCLAS isotope measurement on the preconcentrated (750 ppm, parts-per-million, µmole mole−1) methane is 0.1 and 0.5 ‰ for δ13C- and δD-CH4 at 10 min averaging time. Based on repeated measurements of compressed air during a 2-week intercomparison campaign, the repeatability of the TREX–QCLAS was determined to be 0.19 and 1.9 ‰ for δ13C and δD-CH4, respectively. In this intercomparison campaign the new in situ technique is compared to isotope-ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) based on glass flask and bag sampling and real time CH4 isotope analysis by two commercially available laser spectrometers. Both laser-based analyzers were limited to methane mole fraction and δ13C-CH4 analysis, and only one of them, a cavity ring down spectrometer, was capable to deliver meaningful data for the isotopic composition. After correcting for scale offsets, the average difference between TREX–QCLAS data and bag/flask sampling–IRMS values are within the extended WMO compatibility goals of 0.2 and 5 ‰ for δ13C- and δD-CH4, respectively. This also displays the potential to improve the interlaboratory compatibility based on the analysis of a reference air sample with accurately determined isotopic composition.

Consistent Targets and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Note

Kydland and Prescott (1977) develop a simple model of monetary policy making, where the central bank needs some commitment technique to achieve optimal monetary policy over time. Although not their main focus, they illustrate the difference between consistent and optimal policy in a sequential-decision one-period world. We employ the analytical method developed in Yuan and Miller (2005), whereby the government appoints a central bank with consistent targets or delegates consistent targets to the central bank. Thus, the central bank s welfare function differs from the social welfare function, which cause consistent policy to prove optimal.

Optimal Central Banker Contracts and Common Agency

This paper considers the contacting approach to central banking in the context of a simple common agency model. The recent literature on optimal contracts suggests that the political principal of the central bank can design the appropriate incentive schemes that remedy for time-inconsistency problems in monetary policy. The effectiveness of such contracts, however, requires a central banker that attaches a positive weight to the incentive scheme. As a result, delegating monetary policy under such circumstances gives rise to the possibility that the central banker may respond to incentive schemes offered by other potential principals. We introduce common agency considerations in the design of optimal central banker contracts. We introduce two principals - society (government) and an interest group, whose objectives conflict with society's and we examine under what circumstances the government-offered or the interest-group-offered contract dominates. Our results largely depend on the type of bias that the interest group contract incorporates. In particular, when the interest group contract incorporates an inflationary bias the outcome depends on the principals' relative concern of the incentive schemes' costs. When the interest group contract incorporates an expansionary bias, however, it always dominates the government contract. A corollary of our results is that central banker contracts aiming to remove the expansionary bias of policymakers should be written explicitly in terms of the perceived bias.

Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

Assessment of the performance of 3m 3500 organic vapor monitors over extended sampling durations

The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy and precision of airborne volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations measured using passive air samplers (3M 3500 organic vapor monitors) over extended sampling durations (9 and 15 days). A total of forty-five organic vapor monitor samples were collected at a State of Texas air monitoring site during two different sampling periods (July/August and November 2008). The results of this study indicate that for most of the tested compounds, there was no significant difference between long-term (9 or 15 days) sample concentrations and the means of parallel consecutive short-term (3 days) sample concentrations. Biases of 9 or 15-day measurements vs. consecutive 3-day measurements showed considerable variability. Those compounds that had percent bias values of <10% are suggested as acceptable for long-term sampling (9 and 15 days). Of the twenty-one compounds examined, 10 compounds are classified as acceptable for long-term sampling; these include m,p-xylene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, n-hexane, ethylbenzene, benzene, toluene, o-xylene, d-limonene, dimethylpentane and methyl tertbutyl ether. The ratio of sampling procedure variability relative to variability within days was approximately 1.89 for both sampling periods for the 3-day vs. 9-day comparisons and approximately 2.19 for both sampling periods for the 3-day vs. 15-day comparisons. Considerably higher concentrations of most VOCs were measured during the November sampling period compared to the July/August period. These differences may be a result of varying meteorological conditions during these two time periods, e.g., the differences in wind direction, and wind speed. Further studies are suggested to further evaluate the accuracy and precision of 3M 3500 organic vapor monitors over extended sampling durations. ^

Analyzing left-truncated right-censored data with uncertain onset time with parametric models

Prevalent sampling is an efficient and focused approach to the study of the natural history of disease. Right-censored time-to-event data observed from prospective prevalent cohort studies are often subject to left-truncated sampling. Left-truncated samples are not randomly selected from the population of interest and have a selection bias. Extensive studies have focused on estimating the unbiased distribution given left-truncated samples. However, in many applications, the exact date of disease onset was not observed. For example, in an HIV infection study, the exact HIV infection time is not observable. However, it is known that the HIV infection date occurred between two observable dates. Meeting these challenges motivated our study. We propose parametric models to estimate the unbiased distribution of left-truncated, right-censored time-to-event data with uncertain onset times. We first consider data from a length-biased sampling, a specific case in left-truncated samplings. Then we extend the proposed method to general left-truncated sampling. With a parametric model, we construct the full likelihood, given a biased sample with unobservable onset of disease. The parameters are estimated through the maximization of the constructed likelihood by adjusting the selection bias and unobservable exact onset. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. We apply the proposed method to an HIV infection study, estimating the unbiased survival function and covariance coefficients. ^

(Table 1) Summary of sampling points described and main petrographic, morphological and geochemical characteristics

Targeted sampling on the Dolgovskoy Mound (northern Shatsky Ridge) revealed the presence of spectacular laterally extensive and differently shaped authigenic carbonates. The sampling stations were selected based on sidescan sonar and profiler images that show patchy backscatter and irregular and discontinuous reflections in the near subsurface. The interpretation of acoustic data from the top part of the mound supports the seafloor observations and the sampling that revealed the presence of a complex subsurface plumbing system characterized by carbonates and gas. The crusts sampled consist of carbonate cemented layered hemipelagic sedimentary Unit 1 associated with several centimetres thick microbial mats. Three different carbonate morphologies were observed: (a) tabular slabs, (b) subsurface cavernous carbonates consisting of void chambers up to 20 cm**3 in size and (c) chimney and tubular conduits vertically oriented or forming a subhorizontal network in the subsurface. The methanogenic origin of the carbonates is established based on visual observations of fluids seepage structures, 13C depletion of the carbonates (d13C varying between -36.7 per mil and -27.4 per mil), and by thin carbonate layers present within the thick microbial mats. Laboratory experiments with a Hele-Shaw cell were conducted in order to simulate the gas seepage through contrasting grain size media present on the seafloor. Combined petrography, visual observations and sandbox simulations allowed a characterization of the dynamics and the structures of the plumbing system in the near subsurface. Based on sample observations and the experiments, three observed morphologies of authigenic carbonates are interpreted, respectively, as (a) Darcian porous flow through the finely laminated clayey/coccolith-rich layers, (b) gas accumulation chambers at sites where significant fluid escape was impeded by thicker clayey layers forming the laminated Unit1 and (c) focussed vertical fluid venting and subhorizontal migration of overpressured fluids released from (b). The Hele-Shaw cell experiments represent a promising tool for investigating shallow fluid flow pathways in marine systems.

(Table 11-I, page 338) Metal contents (%) of a representative sampling of manganese nodules from the North Pacific high-grade region

Two types of deep-sea dredges are currently under development for the mining of the manganese nodules, a deep-sea hydraulic dredge and a mechanical cable-bucket system. Both systems offer some advantages with the hydraulic system appearing to be advantageous in themining of a specific deposit for which it is designed while the cable-bucket system appears to be somewhat more flexible in working in a variety of deposits, topographic environments, and water depths. Environmental studies conducted in conjunction with deep-sea tests of the two types of mining systems currently indicate that substantially no environmental damage will be done in the mining of the deep-sea nodules. Because of the nature of the deposits and the way in which they can be mined, the manganese nodules appear to be a relatively pollution free and energy-saving source of a number of industrially important metals.

Abundance and biomass of dinoflagellates and ciliates at time series station Helgoland Roads, North Sea, 2007-2009

A monitoring programme for microzooplankton was started at the long-term sampling station ''Kabeltonne'' at Helgoland Roads (54°11.30' N; 7°54.00' E) in January 2007 in order to provide more detailed knowledge on microzooplankton occurrence, composition and seasonality patterns at this site and to complement the existing plankton data series. Ciliate and dinoflagellate cell concentration and carbon biomass were recorded on a weekly basis. Heterotrophic dinoflagellates were considerably more important in terms of biomass than ciliates, especially during the summer months. However, in early spring, ciliates were the major group of microzooplankton grazers as they responded more quickly to phytoplankton food availability. Mixotrophic dinoflagellates played a secondary role in terms of biomass when compared to heterotrophic species; nevertheless, they made up an intense late summer bloom in 2007. The photosynthetic ciliate Myrionecta rubra bloomed at the end of the sampling period. Due to its high biomass when compared to crustacean plankton especially during the spring bloom, microzooplankton should be regarded as the more important phytoplankton grazer group at Helgoland Roads. Based on these results, analyses of biotic and abiotic factors driving microzooplankton composition and abundance are necessary for a full understanding of this important component of the plankton.

The C37 alkenone record of sea water of time series station DYNAPROC

The concentrations of suspended particulate pigments, C37-C38 alkenones, total organic carbon and nitrogen in the Ligurian Sea (northwestern Mediterranean) have been studied at 5 and 30 m depth during well defined thermocline conditions. An accurate description of the short term changes of these compounds has been achieved by means of four 36-h sampling cycles each encompassing consecutive filtration periods of 4 h. During sampling the thermocline changes were followed closely by simultaneous measurements of water column temperature, salinity and other physical parameters. The analysis of the collected samples indicates that the Haptophyte pigments and alkenones are essentially synthesized at the levels of highest primary production and therefore the C37 alkenone record reflects the seawater temperature at this depth level. The study also shows that part of these alkenones are distributed throughout the water column in association to the suspended particles. This process results in C37 alkenone distributions that, due to their high resistance to chemical and microbial degradation, record the temperature of the highest primary productivity layers even at shallow (e.g., 5 m depth) or deep (e.g., 1100 m depth) waters.

Atmospheric and seawater carbon dioxide at time series station DYFAMED

A time series of fCO2, SST, and fluorescence data was collected between 1995 and 1997 by a CARIOCA buoy moored at the DyFAMed station (Dynamique des Flux Atmospheriques en Mediterranée) located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. On seasonal timescales, the spring phytoplankton bloom decreases the surface water fCO2 to approximately 290 µatm, followed by summer heating and a strong increase in fCO2 to a maximum of approximately 510 µatm. While the DELTA fCO2 shows strong variations on seasonal timescales, the annual average air-sea disequilibrium is only 2 µatm. Temperature-normalized fCO2 shows a continued decrease in dissolved CO2 throughout the summer and fall at a rate of approximately 0.6 µatm/d. The calculated annual air-sea CO2 transfer rate is -0.10 to -0.15 moles CO2 m-2 y-1, with these low values reflecting the relatively weak wind speed regime and small annual air-sea fCO2 disequilibrium. Extrapolating this rate over the whole Mediterranean Sea would lead to a flux of approximately -3 * 10**12 to -4.5 * 10**12 grams C/y, in good agreement with other estimates. An analysis of the effects of sampling frequency on annual air-sea CO2 flux estimates showed that monthly sampling is adequate to resolve the annual CO2 flux to within approximately ±10 - 18% at this site. Annual flux estimates made using temperature-derived fCO2 based on the measured fCO2-SST correlations are in agreement with measurement-based calculations to within ± 7-10% (depending on the gas transfer parameterization used), and suggest that annual CO2 flux estimates may be reasonably well predicted in this region from satellite or model-derived SST and wind speed information.

Collection of data on plant height along the plant diversity gradient in the Jena Experiment (Main Experiment, time series since 2002)

This data set contains a time series of plant height measurements (vegetative and reproductive) from the main experiment plots of a large grassland biodiversity experiment (the Jena Experiment; see further details below). In addition, data on species specific plant heights for the main experiment are available from 2002. In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown into the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. 1. Plant height was recorded, generally, twice a year just before biomass harvest (during peak standing biomass in late May and in late August). Methodologies of measuring height have varied somewhat over the years. In earlier year the streched plant height was measured, while in later years the standing height without streching the plant was measured. Vegetative height was measured either as the height of the highest leaf or as the length of the main axis of non-flowering plants. Regenerating height was measured either as the height of the highest flower on a plant or as the height of the main axis of flowering. Sampled plants were either randomly selected in the core area of plots or along transects in defined distances. For details refer to the description of individual years. Starting in 2006, also the plots of the management experiment, that altered mowing frequency and fertilized subplots (see further details in the general description of the Jena Experiment) were sampled. 2. Species specific plant height was recorded two times in 2002: in late July (vegetative height) and just before biomass harvest during peak standing biomass in late August (vegetative and regenerative height). For each plot and each sown species in the species pool, 3 plant individuals (if present) from the central area of the plots were randomly selected and used to measure vegetative height (non-flowering indviduals) and regenerative height (flowering individuals) as stretched height. Provided are the means over the three measuremnts per plant species per plot.