Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model.

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

Two fast radiative transfer methods to improve the temporal sampling of clouds in numerical weather prediction and climate models

The high computational cost of calculating the radiative heating rates in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models requires that calculations are made infrequently, leading to poor sampling of the fast-changing cloud field and a poor representation of the feedback that would occur. This paper presents two related schemes for improving the temporal sampling of the cloud field. Firstly, the ‘split time-stepping’ scheme takes advantage of the independent nature of the monochromatic calculations of the ‘correlated-k’ method to split the calculation into gaseous absorption terms that are highly dependent on changes in cloud (the optically thin terms) and those that are not (optically thick). The small number of optically thin terms can then be calculated more often to capture changes in the grey absorption and scattering associated with cloud droplets and ice crystals. Secondly, the ‘incremental time-stepping’ scheme uses a simple radiative transfer calculation using only one or two monochromatic calculations representing the optically thin part of the atmospheric spectrum. These are found to be sufficient to represent the heating rate increments caused by changes in the cloud field, which can then be added to the last full calculation of the radiation code. We test these schemes in an operational forecast model configuration and find a significant improvement is achieved, for a small computational cost, over the current scheme employed at the Met Office. The ‘incremental time-stepping’ scheme is recommended for operational use, along with a new scheme to correct the surface fluxes for the change in solar zenith angle between radiation calculations.

Imbalanced land-surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system

There has been a significant increase in the skill and resolution of numerical weather prediction models (NWPs) in recent decades, extending the time scales of useful weather predictions. The land-surface models (LSMs) of NWPs are often employed in hydrological applications, which raises the question of how hydrologically representative LSMs really are. In this paper, precipitation (P), evaporation (E) and runoff (R) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global models were evaluated against observational products. The forecasts differ substantially from observed data for key hydrological variables. In addition, imbalanced surface water budgets, mostly caused by data assimilation, were found on both global (P-E) and basin scales (P-E-R), with the latter being more important. Modeled surface fluxes should be used with care in hydrological applications and further improvement in LSMs in terms of process descriptions, resolution and estimation of uncertainties is needed to accurately describe the land-surface water budgets.

Conditioning of the weak-constraint variational data assimilation problem for numerical weather prediction

4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) assimilates observations through the minimisation of a least-squares objective function, which is constrained by the model flow. We refer to 4DVAR as strong-constraint 4DVAR (sc4DVAR) in this thesis as it assumes the model is perfect. Relaxing this assumption gives rise to weak-constraint 4DVAR (wc4DVAR), leading to a different minimisation problem with more degrees of freedom. We consider two wc4DVAR formulations in this thesis, the model error formulation and state estimation formulation. The 4DVAR objective function is traditionally solved using gradient-based iterative methods. The principle method used in Numerical Weather Prediction today is the Gauss-Newton approach. This method introduces a linearised `inner-loop' objective function, which upon convergence, updates the solution of the non-linear `outer-loop' objective function. This requires many evaluations of the objective function and its gradient, which emphasises the importance of the Hessian. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hessian provide insight into the degree of convexity of the objective function, while also indicating the difficulty one may encounter while iterative solving 4DVAR. The condition number of the Hessian is an appropriate measure for the sensitivity of the problem to input data. The condition number can also indicate the rate of convergence and solution accuracy of the minimisation algorithm. This thesis investigates the sensitivity of the solution process minimising both wc4DVAR objective functions to the internal assimilation parameters composing the problem. We gain insight into these sensitivities by bounding the condition number of the Hessians of both objective functions. We also precondition the model error objective function and show improved convergence. We show that both formulations' sensitivities are related to error variance balance, assimilation window length and correlation length-scales using the bounds. We further demonstrate this through numerical experiments on the condition number and data assimilation experiments using linear and non-linear chaotic toy models.

Mesh adaptation on the sphere using optimal transport and the numerical solution of a Monge-Ampère type equation

An equation of Monge-Ampère type has, for the first time, been solved numerically on the surface of the sphere in order to generate optimally transported (OT) meshes, equidistributed with respect to a monitor function. Optimal transport generates meshes that keep the same connectivity as the original mesh, making them suitable for r-adaptive simulations, in which the equations of motion can be solved in a moving frame of reference in order to avoid mapping the solution between old and new meshes and to avoid load balancing problems on parallel computers. The semi-implicit solution of the Monge-Ampère type equation involves a new linearisation of the Hessian term, and exponential maps are used to map from old to new meshes on the sphere. The determinant of the Hessian is evaluated as the change in volume between old and new mesh cells, rather than using numerical approximations to the gradients. OT meshes are generated to compare with centroidal Voronoi tesselations on the sphere and are found to have advantages and disadvantages; OT equidistribution is more accurate, the number of iterations to convergence is independent of the mesh size, face skewness is reduced and the connectivity does not change. However anisotropy is higher and the OT meshes are non-orthogonal. It is shown that optimal transport on the sphere leads to meshes that do not tangle. However, tangling can be introduced by numerical errors in calculating the gradient of the mesh potential. Methods for alleviating this problem are explored. Finally, OT meshes are generated using observed precipitation as a monitor function, in order to demonstrate the potential power of the technique.

The impact of a thermodynamic sea-ice module in the COSMO numerical weather prediction model on simulations for the Laptev Sea, Siberian Arctic

Previous versions of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) numerical weather prediction model have used a constant sea-ice surface temperature, but observations show a high degree of variability on sub-daily timescales. To account for this, we have implemented a thermodynamic sea-ice module in COSMO and performed simulations at a resolution of 15 km and 5 km for the Laptev Sea area in April 2008. Temporal and spatial variability of surface and 2-m air temperature are verified by four automatic weather stations deployed along the edge of the western New Siberian polynya during the Transdrift XIII-2 expedition and by surface temperature charts derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. A remarkable agreement between the new model results and these observations demonstrates that the implemented sea-ice module can be applied for short-range simulations. Prescribing the polynya areas daily, our COSMO simulations provide a high-resolution and high-quality atmospheric data set for the Laptev Sea for the period 14-30 April 2008. Based on this data set, we derive a mean total sea-ice production rate of 0.53 km3/day for all Laptev Sea polynyas under the assumption that the polynyas are ice-free and a rate of 0.30 km3/day if a 10-cm-thin ice layer is assumed. Our results indicate that ice production in Laptev Sea polynyas has been overestimated in previous studies.

Impact of cyclones on sea ice in the Fram Strait: numerical simulations and observations

The sea ice export from the Arctic is of global importance due to its fresh water which influences the oceanic stratification and, thus, the global thermohaline circulation. This study deals with the effect of cyclones on sea ice and sea ice transport in particular on the basis of observations from two field experiments FRAMZY 1999 and FRAMZY 2002 in April 1999 and March 2002 as well as on the basis of simulations with a numerical sea ice model. The simulations realised by a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are forced with 6-hourly atmospheric ECMWF- analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hourly oceanic data of a MPI-OM-simulation (Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model). Comparing the observed and simulated variability of the sea ice drift and of the position of the ice edge shows that the chosen configuration of the model is appropriate for the performed studies. The seven observed cyclones change the position of the ice edge up to 100 km and cause an extensive decrease of sea ice coverage by 2 % up to more than 10 %. The decrease is only simulated by the model if the ocean current is strongly divergent in the centre of the cyclone. The impact is remarkable of the ocean current on divergence and shear deformation of the ice drift. As shown by sensitivity studies the ocean current at a depth of 6 m – the sea ice model is forced with – is mainly responsible for the ascertained differences between simulation and observation. The simulated sea ice transport shows a strong variability on a time scale from hours to days. Local minima occur in the time series of the ice transport during periods with Fram Strait cyclones. These minima are not caused by the local effect of the cyclone’s wind field, but mainly by the large-scale pattern of surface pressure. A displacement of the areas of strongest cyclone activity in the Nordic Seas would considerably influence the ice transport.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

THE CO-INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE COASTAL UPWELLING AT CABO FRIO: A NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION USING COUPLED MODELS

A coupled atmospheric-oceanic model was used to investigate whether there is a positive feedback between the coastal upwelling and the sea breeze at Cabo Frio - RJ (Brazil). Two experiments were performed to ascertain the influence of the sea breeze on the coastal upwelling: the first one used the coupled model forced with synoptic NE winds of 8 m s(-1) and the sign of the sea breeze circulation was set by the atmospheric model; the second experiment used only the oceanic model with constant 8 m s(-1) NE winds. Then, to study the influence of the coastal upwelling on the sea breeze, two more experiments were performed: one using a coastal upwelling representative SST initial field and the other one using a constant and homogeneous SST field of 26 degrees C. Finally, two more experiments were conducted to verify the influence of the topography and the spatial distribution of the sea surface temperature on the previous results. The results showed that the sea breeze can intensify the coastal upwelling, but the coastal upwelling does not intensify the sea breeze circulation, suggesting that there is no positive feedback between these two phenomena at Cabo Frio.

A numerical investigation of the atmosphere-ocean thermal contrast over the coastal upwelling region of Cabo Frio, Brazil

An one-dimensional atmospheric second order closure model, coupled to an oceanic mixed layer model, is used to investigate the short term variation of the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers in the coastal upwelling area of Cabo Frio, Brazil (23 degrees S, 42 degrees 08`W). The numerical simulations were carried out to evaluate the impact caused by the thermal contrast between atmosphere and ocean on the vertical extent and other properties of both atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. The numerical simulations were designed taking as reference the observations carried out during the passage of a cold front that disrupted the upwelling regime in Cabo Frio in July of 1992. The simulations indicated that in 10 hours the mechanical mixing, sustained by a constant background flow of 10 in s(-1), increases the atmospheric boundary layer in 214 in when the atmosphere is initially 2 K warmer than the ocean (positive thermal contrast observed during upwelling regime). For an atmosphere initially -2 K colder than the ocean (negative thermal contrast observed during passage of the cold front), the incipient thermal convection intensifies the mechanical mixing increasing the vertical extent of the atmospheric boundary layer in 360 in. The vertical evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer is consistent with the observations carried out in Cabo Frio during upwelling condition. When the upwelling is disrupted, the discrepancy between the simulated and observed atmospheric boundary layer heights in Cabo Frio during July of 1992 increases considerably. During the period of 10 hours, the simulated oceanic mixed layer deepens 2 in and 5.4 in for positive and negative thermal contrasts of 2 K and -2 K, respectively. In the latter case, the larger vertical extent of the oceanic mixed layer is due to the presence of thermal convection in the atmospheric boundary layer, which in turn is associated to the absence of upwelling caused by the passage of cold fronts in Cabo Frio.

Revisiting 2D numerical models for the 19th century outbursts of eta Carinae

We present here new results of two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the eruptive events of the 1840s (the great) and the 1890s (the minor) eruptions suffered by the massive star eta Carinae (Car). The two bipolar nebulae commonly known as the Homunculus and the little Homunculus (LH) were formed from the interaction of these eruptive events with the underlying stellar wind. We assume here an interacting, non-spherical multiple-phase wind scenario to explain the shape and the kinematics of both Homunculi, but adopt a more realistic parametrization of the phases of the wind. During the 1890s eruptive event, the outflow speed decreased for a short period of time. This fact suggests that the LH is formed when the eruption ends, from the impact of the post-outburst eta Car wind (that follows the 1890s event) with the eruptive flow (rather than by the collision of the eruptive flow with the pre-outburst wind, as claimed in previous models; Gonzalez et al.). Our simulations reproduce quite well the shape and the observed expansion speed of the large Homunculus. The LH (which is embedded within the large Homunculus) becomes Rayleigh-Taylor unstable and develop filamentary structures that resemble the spatial features observed in the polar caps. In addition, we find that the interior cavity between the two Homunculi is partially filled by material that is expelled during the decades following the great eruption. This result may be connected with the observed double-shell structure in the polar lobes of the eta Car nebula. Finally, as in previous work, we find the formation of tenuous, equatorial, high-speed features that seem to be related to the observed equatorial skirt of eta Car.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF MAGNETIZED WINDS OF SOLAR-LIKE STARS

By means of self-consistent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical simulations, we analyze magnetized solar-like stellar winds and their dependence on the plasma-beta parameter (the ratio between thermal and magnetic energy densities). This is the first study to perform such analysis solving the fully ideal three-dimensional MHD equations. We adopt in our simulations a heating parameter described by gamma, which is responsible for the thermal acceleration of the wind. We analyze winds with polar magnetic field intensities ranging from 1 to 20 G. We show that the wind structure presents characteristics that are similar to the solar coronal wind. The steady-state magnetic field topology for all cases is similar, presenting a configuration of helmet streamer-type, with zones of closed field lines and open field lines coexisting. Higher magnetic field intensities lead to faster and hotter winds. For the maximum magnetic intensity simulated of 20 G and solar coronal base density, the wind velocity reaches values of similar to 1000 km s(-1) at r similar to 20r(0) and a maximum temperature of similar to 6 x 10(6) K at r similar to 6r(0). The increase of the field intensity generates a larger ""dead zone"" in the wind, i.e., the closed loops that inhibit matter to escape from latitudes lower than similar to 45 degrees extend farther away from the star. The Lorentz force leads naturally to a latitude-dependent wind. We show that by increasing the density and maintaining B(0) = 20 G the system recover back to slower and cooler winds. For a fixed gamma, we show that the key parameter in determining the wind velocity profile is the beta-parameter at the coronal base. Therefore, there is a group of magnetized flows that would present the same terminal velocity despite its thermal and magnetic energy densities, as long as the plasma-beta parameter is the same. This degeneracy, however, can be removed if we compare other physical parameters of the wind, such as the mass-loss rate. We analyze the influence of gamma in our results and we show that it is also important in determining the wind structure.

Comparative chromosomal analyses in species of the genus Pimelodella (Siluriformes, Heptapteridae): occurrence of structural and numerical polymorphisms

Cytogenetic analyses were carried out in five species of Pimelodella from the main sub-basins of Upper Parana River and Paraiba do Sul River. The diploid number ranged from 2n = 46 to 2n = 58 chromosomes, and all populations differed in the karyotype constitution. The presence of supernumerary chromosomes as well as the occurrence of a XX/XY sex chromosome system and heterochromatin polymorphisms were detected. The 18S rDNA FISH confirmed the presence of single NORs and revealed additional sites on supernumerary chromosomes. The number and location of 5S rDNA sites were variable. Aspects related to the karyotypic evolution within the genus are discussed.

An evaluation of three upwinding approximations for numerical modeling the flow in tubular membrane of Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids

In this paper, the laminar fluid flow of Newtonian and non-Newtonian of aqueous solutions in a tubular membrane is numerically studied. The mathematical formulation, with associated initial and boundary conditions for cylindrical coordinates, comprises the mass conservation, momentum conservation and mass transfer equations. These equations are discretized by using the finite-difference technique on a staggered grid system. Comparisons of the three upwinding schemes for discretization of the non-linear (convective) terms are presented. The effects of several physical parameters on the concentration profile are investigated. The numerical results compare favorably with experimental data and the analytical solutions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical prediction of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic extrudate swell using differential and algebraic models

This study investigates the numerical simulation of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic free surface flows using the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation and an algebraic explicit model. This investigation was carried out to develop a simplified approach that can be applied to the extrudate swell problem. The relevant physics of this flow phenomenon is discussed in the paper and an algebraic model to predict the extrudate swell problem is presented. It is based on an explicit algebraic representation of the non-Newtonian extra-stress through a kinematic tensor formed with the scaled dyadic product of the velocity field. The elasticity of the fluid is governed by a single transport equation for a scalar quantity which has dimension of strain rate. Mass and momentum conservations, and the constitutive equation (UCM and algebraic model) were solved by a three-dimensional time-dependent finite difference method. The free surface of the fluid was modeled using a marker-and-cell approach. The algebraic model was validated by comparing the numerical predictions with analytic solutions for pipe flow. In comparison with the classical UCM model, one advantage of this approach is that computational workload is substantially reduced: the UCM model employs six differential equations while the algebraic model uses only one. The results showed stable flows with very large extrudate growths beyond those usually obtained with standard differential viscoelastic models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.