A delphi study on health in future India

PIP: A delphi study was conducted to identify or envision health scenarios in India by the year 2000. Questionnaires consisting of 48 questions on 5 areas (diagnosis and therapy; family planning; pharmaceuticals and drugs; biochemical and biomedical research; health services) were mailed to 250 experts in India. 36 responded. Results were compiled and mailed back to the respondents for changes and comments. 17 people responded. Results of the delphi study shows that policy decisions with respect to compulsory family planning as well as health education at secondary school level will precede further breakthroughs in birth control technology. Non operation reversible sterilization procedures, immunological birth control, Ayurvedic medicines for contraception and abortion, and selection of baby's sex are all possible by 2000 thereafter. Complete eradication of infectious diseases, malnutrition and associated diseases is considered unlikely before 2000, as are advances in biomedical research. Changes in health services (e.g., significant increases in hospital beds and doctors, cheap bulk drugs), particularly in rural areas, are imminent, leading to prolonging of life expectancy to 70 years. Genetic engineering may provide significant breakthroughs in the prevention of malignancies and cardiac disorders. The India delphi study is patterned after a similar delphi study conducted in the U.S. by Smith, Kline and French (SKF) Laboratories in 1968. The SKF study was able to predict some breakthroughs with basic research which have been realized.

A Guide to Disability Statistics from the National Health Interview Survey – Disability Supplement

The National Health Interview Survey - Disability supplement (NHIS-D) provides information that can be used to understand myriad topics related to health and disability. The survey provides comprehensive information on multiple disability conceptualizations that can be identified using information about health conditions (both physical and mental), activity limitations, and service receipt (e.g. SSI, SSDI, Vocational Rehabilitation). This provides flexibility for researchers in defining populations of interest. This paper provides a description of the data available in the NHIS-D and information on how the data can be used to better understand the lives of people with disabilities.

Molecular Pathways of Disturbed Sleep and Depression: Studies on Adenosine and Gene Expression Patterns

Background: Adenosine is a potent sleep-promoting substance, and one of its targets is the basal forebrain. Fairly little is known about its mechanism of action in the basal forebrain and about the receptor subtype mediating its regulating effects on sleep homeostasis. Homeostatic deficiency might be one of the causes of the profoundly disturbed sleep pattern in major depressive disorder, which could explain the reduced amounts of delta-activity-rich stages 3 and 4. Since major depression has a relatively high heritability, and on the other hand adenosine regulates sleep homeostasis and might also be involved in mood modulation, adenosine-related genes should be considered for their possible contribution to a predisposition for depression and disturbed sleep in humans. Depression is a complex disorder likely involving the abnormal functioning of several genes. Novel target genes which could serve as the possible common substrates for depression and comorbid disturbed sleep should be identified. In this way specific brain areas related to sleep regulation should be studied by using animal model of depression which represents more homogenous phenotype as compared to humans. It is also important to study these brain areas during the development of depressive-like features to understand how early changes could facilitate pathophysiological changes in depression. Aims and methods: We aimed to find out whether, in the basal forebrain, adenosine induces recovery non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep after prolonged waking through the A1 or/and A2A receptor subtype. A1 and A2A receptor antagonists were perfused into the rat basal forebrain during 3 h of sleep deprivation, and the amount of NREM sleep and delta power during recovery NREM sleep were analyzed. We then explored whether polymorphisms in genes related to the metabolism, transport and signaling of adenosine could predispose to depression accompanied by signs of disturbed sleep. DNA from 1423 individuals representative of the Finnish population and including controls and cases with depression, depression accompanied by early morning awakenings and depression accompanied by fatigue, was used in the study to investigate the possible association between polymorphisms from adenosine-related genes and cases. Finally to find common molecular substrates of depression and disturbed sleep, gene expression changes were investigated in specific brain areas in the rat clomipramine model of depression. We focused on the basal forebrain of 3-week old clomipramine-treated rats which develop depressive-like symptoms later in adulthood and on the hypothalamus of adult female clomipramine-treated rats. Results: Blocking of the A1 receptor during sleep deprivation resulted in a reduction of the recovery NREM sleep amount and delta power, whereas A2A receptor antagonism had no effect. Polymorphisms in adenosine-related genes SLC29A3 (equilibrative nucleoside transporter type 3) in women and SLC28A1 (concentrative nucleoside transporter type 1) in men associated with depression alone as well as when accompanied by early morning awakenings and fatigue. In Study III the basal forebrain of postnatal rats treated with clomipramine displayed disturbances in gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) receptor type A signaling, in synaptic transmission and possible epigenetic changes. CREB1 was identified as a common transcription denominator which also mediates epigenetic regulation. In the hypothalamus the major changes included the expression of genes in GABA-A receptor pathway, K+ channel-related, glutamatergic and mitochondrial genes, as well as an overexpression of genes related to RNA and mRNA processing. Conclusions: Adenosine plays an important role in sleep homeostasis by promoting recovery NREM sleep via the A1 receptor subtype in the basal forebrain. Also adenosine levels might contribute to the risk of depression with disturbed sleep, since the genes encoding nucleoside transporters showed the strongest associations with depression alone and when accompanied by signs of disturbed sleep in both women and men. Sleep and mood abnormalities in major depressive disorder could be a consequence of multiple changes at the transcriptional level, GABA-A receptor signaling and synaptic transmission in sleep-related basal forebrain and the hypothalamus.

Complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in first-line treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia: A case study for technology appraisal on the basis of surrogate outcomes evidence

Objectives In 2012, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence assessed dasatinib, nilotinib, and standard-dose imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Licensing of these alternative treatments was based on randomized controlled trials assessing complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at 12 months as primary end points. We use this case study to illustrate the validation of CCyR and MMR as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in CML and how this evidence was used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s recommendation on the public funding of these first-line treatments for CML. Methods We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the association between CCyR and MMR at 12 months and overall survival in patients with chronic phase CML. We estimated life expectancy by extrapolating long-term survival from the weighted overall survival stratified according to the achievement of CCyR and MMR. Results Five studies provided data on the observational association between CCyR or MMR and overall survival. Based on the pooled association between CCyR and MMR and overall survival, our modeling showed comparable predicted mean duration of survival (21–23 years) following first-line treatment with imatinib, dasatinib, or nilotinib. Conclusions This case study illustrates the consideration of surrogate outcome evidence in health technology assessment. Although it is often recommended that the acceptance of surrogate outcomes be based on randomized controlled trial data demonstrating an association between the treatment effect on both the surrogate outcome and the final outcome, this case study shows that policymakers may be willing to accept a lower level of evidence (i.e., observational association).

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Interactions of nandrolone and psychostimulant drugs on central monoaminergic systems

It has been hypothesized that abuse of supra-therapeutic doses of anabolic androgenic steroids (AASs) can lead to dependence and function as a gateway to abuse of other drugs. This is supported by behavioral studies on animal models and psychiatric evaluations of human subjects, although their neurochemical effects remain largely unknown. A large body of evidence suggests that the ability of the drugs to induce a strong elevation of extracellular dopamine (DA) levels in the nucleus accumbens (NAc), especially, plays a crucial role in their reinforcing effects. -- This study had four main aims. The first was to explore the effects of nandrolone decanoate on dopaminergic and serotonergic activities in the brains of rats. The second aim was to assess whether or not nandrolone pre-exposure modulates the acute neurochemical and behavioral effects of psychostimulant drugs in experimental animals. The third was to investigate if the AAS-pre-treatment induced changes in brain reward circuitry are reversible. And the fourth main goal was to evaluate the role of androgen and estrogen receptors in the modulation of the dopaminergic and serotonergic effects of acute injections of stimulant drugs by sub-chronic nandrolone treatment. The results showed that nandrolone decanoate at doses, high enough to induce erythropoiesis, significantly increased the levels of DOPAC and 5-HT in the cerebral cortex. Co-administration of AAS and psychostimulant drugs showed that the increase in extracellular DA and 5-HT concentration evoked by amphetamine, MDMA and cocaine in the NAc was attenuated dose-dependently by pretreatment with nandrolone. Nandrolone pre-exposure also attenuated the ability of stimulants to cause increased stereotyped behavior and locomotor activity. Despite the significant decrease in nandrolone concentration in blood, the attenuation of cocaine’s effects remained unchanged after a fairly long period without nandrolone, suggesting that nandrolone effects could be long lasting. Blockade of androgen receptors with flutamide abolished the attenuating effect of nandrolone pretreatment on amphetamine-induced elevation of extracellular DA concentration. --- In conclusion, the results show that AAS-pretreatment is able to inhibit the reward-related neurochemical and behavioral effects of amphetamine, MDMA and cocaine in experimental animals. Furthermore, it seems that these effects could be long lasting and it appears that the ability of nandrolone to modulate reward-related effects of stimulants is dependent on activation of androgen receptors.

Very Low Birth Weight Infants as Young Adults : Focus on aspects of cognition, behavior and sleep

Major advances in the treatment of preterm infants have occurred during the last three decades. Survival rates have increased, and the first generations of preterm infants born at very low birth weight (VLBW; less than 1500 g) who profited from modern neonatal intensive care are now in young adulthood. The literature shows that VLBW children achieve on average lower scores on cognitive tests, even after exclusion of individuals with obvious neurosensory deficits. Evidence also exists for an increased risk in VLBW children for various neuropsychiatric disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and related behavioral symptoms. Up till now, studies extending into adulthood are sparse, and it remains to be seen whether these problems persist into adulthood. The aim of this thesis was to study ADHD-related symptoms and cognitive and executive functioning in young adults born at VLBW. In addition, we aimed to study sleep disturbances, known to adversely affect both cognition and attention. We hypothesized that preterm birth at VLBW interferes with early brain development in a way that alters the neuropsychological phenotype; this may manifest itself as ADHD symptoms and impaired cognitive abilities in young adulthood. In this cohort study from a geographically defined region, we studied 166 VLBW adults and 172 term-born controls born from 1978 through 1985. At ages 18 to 27 years, the study participants took part in a clinic study during which their physical and psychological health was assessed in detail. Three years later, 213 of these individuals participated in a follow-up. The current study is part of a larger research project (The Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults), and the measurements of interest for this particular study include the following: 1) The Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), a self-rating scale of ADHD-related symptoms in adults; 2) A computerized cognitive test battery designed for population studies (CogState®) which measures core cognitive abilities such as reaction time, working memory, and visual learning; 3) Sleep assessment by actigraphy, the Basic Nordic Sleep Questionnaire, and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire. Actigraphs are wrist-worn accelerometers that separate sleep from wakefulness by registering body movements. Contrary to expectations, VLBW adults as a group reported no more ADHD-related behavioral symptoms than did controls. Further subdivision of the VLBW group into SGA (small for gestational age) and AGA (appropriate for gestational age) subgroups, however, revealed more symptoms on ADHD subscales pertaining to executive dysfunction and emotional instability among those born SGA. Thus, it seems that intrauterine growth retardation (for which SGA served as a proxy) is a more essential predictor for self-perceived ADHD symptoms in adulthood than is VLBW birth as such. In line with observations from other cohorts, the VLBW adults reported less risk-taking behavior in terms of substance use (alcohol, smoking, and recreational drugs), a finding reassuring for the VLBW individuals and their families. On the cognitive test, VLBW adults free from neurosensory deficits had longer reaction times than did term-born peers on all tasks included in the test battery, and lower accuracy on the learning task, with no discernible effect of SGA status over and above the effect of VLBW. Altogether, on a group level, even high-functioning VLBW adults show subtle deficits in psychomotor processing speed, visual working memory, and learning abilities. The sleep studies provided no evidence for differences in sleep quality or duration between the two groups. The VLBW adults were, however, at more than two-fold higher risk for sleep-disordered breathing (in terms of chronic snoring). Given the link between sleep-disordered breathing and health sequelae, these results suggest that VLBW individuals may benefit from an increased awareness among clinicians of this potential problem area. An unexpected finding from the sleep studies was the suggestion of an advanced sleep phase: The VLBW adults went to bed earlier according to the actigraphy registrations and also reported earlier wake-up times on the questionnaire. In further study of this issue in conjunction with the follow-up three years later, the VLBW group reported higher levels of morningness propensity, further corroborating the preliminary findings of an advanced sleep phase. Although the clinical implications are not entirely clear, the issue may be worth further study, since circadian rhythms are closely related to health and well-being. In sum, we believe that increased understanding of long-term outcomes after VLBW, and identification of areas and subgroups that are particularly vulnerable, will allow earlier recognition of potential problems and ultimately lead to improved prevention strategies.