Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

Comparing growth trajectories of risk behaviors from late adolescence through young adulthood: An accelerated design

Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of alcohol use, drinking to the point of drunkenness, smoking, cannabis use, deviance, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior were compared in a Swiss community sample (N = 2,843). Using a longitudinal cohort-sequential approach to link multiple assessments with 3 waves of data for each individual, the studied period spanned the ages of 16 to 29 years. Although smoking had a higher prevalence, both smoking and drinking up to the point of drunkenness followed an inverted U-shaped curve. Alcohol consumption was also best described by a quadratic model, though largely stable at a high level through the late 20s. Sexual risk behavior increased slowly from age 16 to age 22 and then remained largely stable. In contrast, cannabis use and deviance linearly declined from age 16 to age 29. Young men were at higher risk for all behaviors than were young women, but apart from deviance, patterning over time was similar for both sexes. Results about the timing of increase and decline as well as differences between risk behaviors may inform tailored prevention programs during the transition from late adolescence to adulthood.

Evaluating the disparity of female breast cancer mortality among racial groups - a spatiotemporal analysis

Background The literature suggests that the distribution of female breast cancer mortality demonstrates spatial concentration. There remains a lack of studies on how the mortality burden may impact racial groups across space and over time. The present study evaluated the geographic variations in breast cancer mortality in Texas females according to three predominant racial groups (non-Hispanic White, Black, and Hispanic females) over a twelve-year period. It sought to clarify whether the spatiotemporal trend might place an uneven burden on particular racial groups, and whether the excess trend has persisted into the current decade. Methods The Spatial Scan Statistic was employed to examine the geographic excess of breast cancer mortality by race in Texas counties between 1990 and 2001. The statistic was conducted with a scan window of a maximum of 90% of the study period and a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk. The next scan was conducted with a purely spatial option to verify whether the excess mortality persisted further. Spatial queries were performed to locate the regions of excess mortality affecting multiple racial groups. Results The first scan identified 4 regions with breast cancer mortality excess in both non-Hispanic White and Hispanic female populations. The most likely excess mortality with a relative risk of 1.12 (p = 0.001) occurred between 1990 and 1996 for non-Hispanic Whites, including 42 Texas counties along Gulf Coast and Central Texas. For Hispanics, West Texas with a relative risk of 1.18 was the most probable region of excess mortality (p = 0.001). Results of the second scan were identical to the first. This suggested that the excess mortality might not persist to the present decade. Spatial queries found that 3 counties in Southeast and 9 counties in Central Texas had excess mortality involving multiple racial groups. Conclusion Spatiotemporal variations in breast cancer mortality affected racial groups at varying levels. There was neither evidence of hot-spot clusters nor persistent spatiotemporal trends of excess mortality into the present decade. Non-Hispanic Whites in the Gulf Coast and Hispanics in West Texas carried the highest burden of mortality, as evidenced by spatial concentration and temporal persistence.

Index-Oriented Methodologies for Landslide Consequence Analysis: An Application to a Mountain Community in the French Alps

Consequence analysis is a key aspect of anchoring assessment of landslide impacts to present and long-term development planning. Although several approaches have been developed over the last decade, some of them are difficult to apply in practice, mainly because of the lack of valuable data on historical damages or on damage functions. In this paper, two possible consequence indicators based on a combination of descriptors of the exposure of the elements at risk are proposed in order to map the potential impacts of landslides and highlight the most vulnerable areas. The first index maps the physical vulnerability due to landslide; the second index maps both direct damage (physical, structural, functional) and indirect damage (socio-economic impacts) of landslide hazards. The indexes have been computed for the 200 km2 area of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), and their potential applications are discussed.

Sex Trafficking of Minors in the U.S.: Implications for Policy, Prevention and Research

Context: Information currently available on the trafficking of minors in the U.S. for commercial sexual exploitation includes approximations of the numbers involved, risk factors that increase the likelihood of victimization and methods of recruitment and control. However, specific characteristics about this vulnerable population remain largely unknown. Objective: This article has two distinct purposes. The first is to provide the reader with an overview of available information on minor sex trafficking in the U.S. The second is to present findings and discuss policy, research, and educational implications from secondary data analysis of 115 cases of minor sex trafficking in the U.S. Design: Minor sex trafficking cases were identified through two main venues - a review of U.S. Department of Justice press releases of human trafficking cases and an online search of media reports. Searches covered the time period from October 28, 2000, which coincided with the passage of the VTVPA through October 31, 2009. Cases were included in analysis if the incident involved at least one victim under the age of 18, occurred in the U.S., and at least one perpetrator had been arrested, indicted, or convicted. Results: A total of 115 separate incidents involving at least 153 victims were located. These occurrences involved 215 perpetrators, with the majority of them having been convicted (n = 117, 53.4%), The number of victims involved in a single incident ranged from 1 to 9. Over 90% of victims were female who ranged in age from 5 to 17 years. There were more U.S. minor victims than those from other countries. Victims had been in captivity from less than 6 months to 5 years. Minors most commonly fell into exploitation through some type of false promise indicated (16.3%, n = 25), followed by kidnapping (9.8%, n = 15). Over a fifth of the sample (22.2%, n = 34) were abused through two commercial sex practices, with almost all (94.1%, n = 144) used in prostitution. One of every five victims (24.8%, n = 38) had been advertised on an Internet website. Conclusions: Results of a review of known information about minor sex trafficking and findings from analysis of 115 incidents of the sex trafficking of youth in the U.S. indicate a need for stronger legislation to educate various professional groups, more comprehensive services for victims, stricter laws for pimps and traffickers, and preventive educational interventions beginning at a young age.

Risk of Second Malignant Neoplasms Following Proton Arc Therapy and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy for Prostate Cancer

The risk of second malignant neoplasms (SMNs) following prostate radiotherapy is a concern due to the large population of survivors and decreasing age at diagnosis. It is known that parallel-opposed beam proton therapy carries a lower risk than photon IMRT. However, a comparison of SMN risk following proton and photon arc therapies has not previously been reported. The purpose of this study was to predict the ratio of excess relative risk (RRR) of SMN incidence following proton arc therapy to that after volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Additionally, we investigated the impact of margin size and the effect of risk-minimized proton beam weighting on predicted RRR. Physician-approved treatment plans were created for both modalities for three patients. Therapeutic dose was obtained with differential dose-volume histograms from the treatment planning system, and stray dose was estimated from the literature or calculated with Monte Carlo simulations. Then, various risk models were applied to the total dose. Additional treatment plans were also investigated with varying margin size and risk-minimized proton beam weighting. The mean RRR ranged from 0.74 to 0.99, depending on risk model. The additional treatment plans revealed that the RRR remained approximately constant with varying margin size, and that the predicted RRR was reduced by 12% using a risk-minimized proton arc therapy planning technique. In conclusion, proton arc therapy was found to provide an advantage over VMAT in regard to predicted risk of SMN following prostate radiotherapy. This advantage was independent of margin size and was amplified with risk-optimized proton beam weighting.

A comparative study of different in vitro lung cell culture systems to assess the most beneficial tool for screening the potential adverse effects of carbon nanotubes

To determine the potential inhalatory risk posed by carbon nanotubes (CNTs), a tier-based approach beginning with an in vitro assessment must be adopted. The purpose of this study therefore was to compare 4 commonly used in vitro systems of the human lung (human blood monocyte-derived macrophages [MDM] and monocyte-derived dendritic cells [MDDC], 16HBE14o- epithelial cells, and a sophisticated triple cell co-culture model [TCC-C]) via assessment of the biological impact of different CNTs (single-walled CNTs [SWCNTs] and multiwalled CNTs [MWCNTs]) over 24h. No significant cytotoxicity was observed with any of the cell types tested, although a significant (p < .05), dose-dependent increase in tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α following SWCNT and MWCNT exposure at concentrations up to 0.02mg/ml to MDM, MDDC, and the TCC-C was found. The concentration of TNF-α released by the MDM and MDDC was significantly higher (p < .05) than the TCC-C. Significant increases (p < .05) in interleukin (IL)-8 were also found for both 16HBE14o- epithelial cells and the TCC-C after SWCNTs and MWCNTs exposure up to 0.02mg/ml. The TCC-C, however, elicited a significantly (p < .05) higher IL-8 release than the epithelial cells. The oxidative potential of both SWCNTs and MWCNTs (0.005-0.02mg/ml) measured by reduced glutathione (GSH) content showed a significant difference (p < .05) between each monoculture and the TCC-C. It was concluded that because only the co-culture system could assess each endpoint adequately, that, in comparison with monoculture systems, multicellular systems that take into consideration important cell type-to-cell type interactions could be used as predictive in vitro screening tools for determining the potential deleterious effects associated with CNTs.

The Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity over the Past 106–109 Years as Recorded by Cosmogenic Nuclides in Meteorites and Terrestrial Samples

Concentrations of stable and radioactive nuclides produced by cosmic ray particles in meteorites allow us to track the long term average of the primary flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). During the past ∼10 Ma, the average GCR flux remained constant over timescales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years, and, if corrected for known variations in solar modulation, also during the past several years to hundreds of years. Because the cosmic ray concentrations in meteorites represent integral signals, it is difficult to assess the limits of uncertainty of this statement, but they are larger than the often quoted analytical and model uncertainties of some 30%. Time series of concentrations of the radionuclide 10Be in terrestrial samples strengthen the conclusions drawn from meteorite studies, indicating that the GCR intensity on a ∼0.5 million year scale has remained constant within some ±10% during the past ∼10 million years. The very long-lived radioactive nuclide 40K allows to assess the GCR flux over about the past one billion years. The flux over the past few million years has been the same as the longer-term average in the past 0.5–1 billion years within a factor of ∼1.5. However, newer data do not confirm a long-held belief that the flux in the past few million years has been higher by some 30–50% than the very long term average. Neither does our analysis confirm a hypothesis that the iron meteorite data indicate a ∼150 million year periodicity in the cosmic ray flux, possibly related to variations in the long-term terrestrial climate.

The angiotensin-converting enzyme insertion/deletion polymorphism and its associations with carotid artery wall thickness and coronary heart disease: The atherosclerosis risk in communities study

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death in the United States. Recently, renin-angiotensin system (RAS) was found associated with atherosclerosis formation, with angiotensin II inducing vascular smooth muscle cell growth and migration, platelet activation and aggregation, and stimulation of plasminogen activator inhibitor-1. Angiotensin II is converted from angiotensin I by angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) and this enzyme is mainly genetically determined. The ACE gene has been assigned to chromosome 17q23 and an insertion/deletion (I/D)polymorphism has been characterized by the presence/absence of a 287 bp fragment in intron 16 of the gene. The two alleles form three genotypes, namely, DD, ID and II and the DD genotype has been linked to higher plasma ACE levels and cell ACE activity.^ In this study, the association between the ACE I/D polymorphism and carotid artery wall thickness measured by B-mode ultrasound was investigated in a biracial sample, and the association between the gene and incident CHD was investigated in whites and if the gene-CHD association in whites, if any, was due to the gene effect on atherosclerosis. The study participants are from the prospective Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, including adults aged 45 to 65 years. The present dissertation used a matched case-control design for studying the associations of the ACE gene with carotid artery atherosclerosis and an unmatched case-control design for the association of the gene with CHD. A significant recessive effect of the D allele on carotid artery thickness was found in blacks (OR = 3.06, 95% C.I: 1.11-8.47, DD vs. ID and II) adjusting for age, gender, cigarette smoking, LDL-cholesterol and diabetes. No similar associations were found in whites. The ACE I/D polymorphism is significantly associated with coronary heart disease in whites, and while stratifying data by carotid artery wall thickness, the significant associations were only observed in thin-walled subgroups. Assuming a recessive effect of the D allele, odds ratio was 2.84 (95% C.I:1.17-6.90, DD vs. ID and II) and it was 2.30 (95% C.I:1.22-4.35, DD vs. ID vs. II) assuming a codominant effect of the D allele. No significant associations were observed while comparing thick-walled CHD cases with thin-walled controls. Following conclusions could be drawn: (1) The ACE I/D polymorphism is unlikely to confer appreciable increase in the risk of carotid atherosclerosis in US whites, but may increases the risk of carotid atherosclerosis in blacks. (2) ACE I/D polymorphism is a genetic risk factor for incident CHD in US whites and this effect is separate from the chronic process of atherosclerosis development. Finally, the associations observed here are not causal, since the I/D polymorphism is in an intron, where no ACE proteins are encoded. ^

High intestinal cholesterol absorption is associated with cardiovascular disease and risk alleles in ABCG8 and ABO: evidence from the LURIC and YFS cohorts and from a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine whether high intestinal cholesterol absorption represents a cardiovascular risk factor and to link ABCG8 and ABO variants to cardiovascular disease (CVD). BACKGROUND Plant sterol-enriched functional foods are widely used for cholesterol lowering. Their regular intake yields a 2-fold increase in circulating plant sterol levels that equally represent markers of cholesterol absorption. Variants in ABCG8 and ABO have been associated with circulating plant sterol levels and CVD, thereby suggesting atherogenic effects of plant sterols or of cholesterol uptake. METHODS The cholestanol-to-cholesterol ratio (CR) was used as an estimate of cholesterol absorption because it is independent of plant sterols. First, we investigated the associations of 6 single nucleotide polymorphisms in ABCG8 and ABO with CR in the LURIC (LUdwisghafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study) and the YFS (Young Finns Study) cohorts. Second, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether CR might be related to CVD. RESULTS In LURIC, the minor alleles of rs4245791 and rs4299376 and the major alleles of rs41360247, rs6576629, and rs4953023 of the ABCG8 gene and the minor allele of rs657152 of the ABO gene were significantly associated with higher CR. Consistent results were obtained for rs4245791, rs4299376, rs6576629, and rs4953023 in YFS. The meta-analysis, including 6 studies and 4,362 individuals, found that CR was significantly increased in individuals with CVD. CONCLUSIONS High cholesterol absorption is associated with risk alleles in ABCG8 and ABO and with CVD. Harm caused by elevated cholesterol absorption rather than by plant sterols may therefore mediate the relationships of ABCG8 and ABO variants with CVD.

Determination of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin in human serum by capillary zone electrophoresis: evaluation of assay performance and quality assurance over a 10-year period in the routine arena.

The performance of high-resolution CZE for determination of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) in human serum based on internal and external quality data gathered over a 10-year period is reported. The assay comprises mixing of serum with a Fe(III) ion-containing solution prior to analysis of the iron saturated mixture in a dynamically double-coated capillary using a commercial buffer at alkaline pH. CDT values obtained with a human serum of a healthy individual and commercial quality control sera are shown to vary less than 10%. Values of a control from a specific lot were found to slowly decrease as function of time (less than 10% per year). Furthermore, due to unknown reasons, gradual changes in the monitored pattern around pentasialo-transferrin were detected, which limit the use of commercial control sera of the same lot to less than 2 years. Analysis of external quality control sera revealed correct classification of the samples over the entire 10-year period. Data obtained compare well with those of HPLC and CZE assays of other laboratories. The data gathered over a 10-year period demonstrate the robustness of the high-resolution CZE assay. This is the first account of a CZE-based CDT assay with complete internal and external quality assessment over an extended time period.

Analysis of caesarean section rates over time in a single Swiss centre using a ten-group classification system.

OBJECTIVE Caesarean section (CS) rates have risen over the past two decades. The aim of this observational study was to identify time-dependent variations in CS and vaginal delivery rates over a period of 11 years. METHOD All deliveries (13,701 deliveries during the period 1999-2009) at the University Women's Hospital Bern were analysed using an internationally standardised and approved ten-group classification system. Caesarean sections on maternal request (CSMR) were evaluated separately. RESULTS We detected an overall CS rate of 36.63% and an increase in the CS rate over time (p <0.001). Low-risk profile groups were the two largest populations and displayed low CS rates, with significantly decreasing relative size over time. The relative size of groups with induced labour increased significantly, but this did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. Pregnancies complicated by breech position, multiple pregnancies and abnormal lies did not have an impact on overall CS rate. The biggest contributor to a high CS rate was preterm delivery and the existence of a uterine scar from a previous CS. CSMR was 1.45% and did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. CONCLUSION The observational study identified wide variations in caesarean section and vaginal delivery rates across the groups over time, and a shift towards high-risk populations was noted. The biggest contributors to high CS rates were identified; namely, previous uterine scar and preterm delivery. Interventions aiming to reduce CS rates are planned.

Risk factors associated with the longevity of multi-rooted teeth. Long-term outcomes after active and supportive periodontal therapy

AIM To investigate risk factors for the loss of multi-rooted teeth (MRT) in subjects treated for periodontitis and enrolled in supportive periodontal therapy (SPT). MATERIAL AND METHODS A total of 172 subjects were examined before (T0) and after active periodontal therapy (APT)(T1) and following a mean of 11.5 ± 5.2 (SD) years of SPT (T2). The association of risk factors with loss of MRT was analysed with multilevel logistic regression. The tooth was the unit of analysis. RESULTS Furcation involvement (FI) = 1 before APT was not a risk factor for tooth loss compared with FI = 0 (p = 0.37). Between T0 and T2, MRT with FI = 2 (OR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.68, 5.06, p = 0.0001) and FI = 3 (OR: 6.85, 95% CI: 3.40, 13.83, p < 0.0001) were at a significantly higher risk to be lost compared with those with FI = 0. During SPT, smokers lost significantly more MRT compared with non-smokers (OR: 2.37, 95% CI: 1.05, 5.35, p = 0.04). Non-smoking and compliant subjects with FI = 0/1 at T1 lost significantly less MRT during SPT compared with non-compliant smokers with FI = 2 (OR: 10.11, 95% CI: 2.91, 35.11, p < 0.0001) and FI = 3 (OR: 17.18, 95% CI: 4.98, 59.28, p < 0.0001) respectively. CONCLUSIONS FI = 1 was not a risk factor for tooth loss compared with FI = 0. FI = 2/3, smoking and lack of compliance with regular SPT represented risk factors for the loss of MRT in subjects treated for periodontitis.

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol

BACKGROUND The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. METHODS/DESIGN This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. DISCUSSION This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors commonly have to do, that is-conduct risk of bias assessment in RCTs without much formal training or standardized instructions. If our results indicate that an intense standardized training does improve the reliability of the RoB tool, our study is likely to help improve the quality of risk of bias assessments, which is a central component of evidence synthesis.

Developing Psychosis and Its Risk States Through the Lens of Schizotypy

Starting from the early descriptions of Kraepelin and Bleuler, the construct of schizotypy was developed from observations of aberrations in nonpsychotic family members of schizophrenia patients. In contemporary diagnostic manuals, the positive symptoms of schizotypal personality disorder were included in the ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria 20 years ago, and nowadays are broadly employed in clinical early detection of psychosis. The schizotypy construct, now dissociated from strict familial risk, also informed research on the liability to develop any psychotic disorder, and in particular schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, even outside clinical settings. Against the historical background of schizotypy it is surprising that evidence from longitudinal studies linking schizotypy, UHR, and conversion to psychosis has only recently emerged; and it still remains unclear how schizotypy may be positioned in high-risk research. Following a comprehensive literature search, we review 18 prospective studies on 15 samples examining the evidence for a link between trait schizotypy and conversion to psychosis in 4 different types of samples: general population, clinical risk samples according to UHR and/or basic symptom criteria, genetic (familial) risk, and clinical samples at-risk for a nonpsychotic schizophrenia-spectrum diagnosis. These prospective studies underline the value of schizotypy in high-risk research, but also point to the lack of evidence needed to better define the position of the construct of schizotypy within a developmental psychopathology perspective of emerging psychosis and schizophrenia-spectrum disorders