Application of Mixture Models to Survival Data

Survival models are being widely applied to the engineering field to model time-to-event data once censored data is here a common issue. Using parametric models or not, for the case of heterogeneous data, they may not always represent a good fit. The present study relays on critical pumps survival data where traditional parametric regression might be improved in order to obtain better approaches. Considering censored data and using an empiric method to split the data into two subgroups to give the possibility to fit separated models to our censored data, we’ve mixture two distinct distributions according a mixture-models approach. We have concluded that it is a good method to fit data that does not fit to a usual parametric distribution and achieve reliable parameters. A constant cumulative hazard rate policy was used as well to check optimum inspection times using the obtained model from the mixture-model, which could be a plus when comparing with the actual maintenance policies to check whether changes should be introduced or not.

Efficient and low-computational predictive models for spectral sensors

Spectral sensors are a wide class of devices that are extremely useful for detecting essential information of the environment and materials with high degree of selectivity. Recently, they have achieved high degrees of integration and low implementation cost to be suited for fast, small, and non-invasive monitoring systems. However, the useful information is hidden in spectra and it is difficult to decode. So, mathematical algorithms are needed to infer the value of the variables of interest from the acquired data. Between the different families of predictive modeling, Principal Component Analysis and the techniques stemmed from it can provide very good performances, as well as small computational and memory requirements. For these reasons, they allow the implementation of the prediction even in embedded and autonomous devices. In this thesis, I will present 4 practical applications of these algorithms to the prediction of different variables: moisture of soil, moisture of concrete, freshness of anchovies/sardines, and concentration of gasses. In all of these cases, the workflow will be the same. Initially, an acquisition campaign was performed to acquire both spectra and the variables of interest from samples. Then these data are used as input for the creation of the prediction models, to solve both classification and regression problems. From these models, an array of calibration coefficients is derived and used for the implementation of the prediction in an embedded system. The presented results will show that this workflow was successfully applied to very different scientific fields, obtaining autonomous and non-invasive devices able to predict the value of physical parameters of choice from new spectral acquisitions.

Thermal and air quality modeling of an electric vehicle cabin with low-cost sensors and reinforcement learning

The design process of any electric vehicle system has to be oriented towards the best energy efficiency, together with the constraint of maintaining comfort in the vehicle cabin. Main aim of this study is to research the best thermal management solution in terms of HVAC efficiency without compromising occupant’s comfort and internal air quality. An Arduino controlled Low Cost System of Sensors was developed and compared against reference instrumentation (average R-squared of 0.92) and then used to characterise the vehicle cabin in real parking and driving conditions trials. Data on the energy use of the HVAC was retrieved from the car On-Board Diagnostic port. Energy savings using recirculation can reach 30 %, but pollutants concentration in the cabin builds up in this operating mode. Moreover, the temperature profile appeared strongly nonuniform with air temperature differences up to 10° C. Optimisation methods often require a high number of runs to find the optimal configuration of the system. Fast models proved to be beneficial for these task, while CFD-1D model are usually slower despite the higher level of detail provided. In this work, the collected dataset was used to train a fast ML model of both cabin and HVAC using linear regression. Average scaled RMSE over all trials is 0.4 %, while computation time is 0.0077 ms for each second of simulated time on a laptop computer. Finally, a reinforcement learning environment was built in OpenAI and Stable-Baselines3 using the built-in Proximal Policy Optimisation algorithm to update the policy and seek for the best compromise between comfort, air quality and energy reward terms. The learning curves show an oscillating behaviour overall, with only 2 experiments behaving as expected even if too slow. This result leaves large room for improvement, ranging from the reward function engineering to the expansion of the ML model.

Models and algorithms for real-world optimization problems

This thesis deals with efficient solution of optimization problems of practical interest. The first part of the thesis deals with bin packing problems. The bin packing problem (BPP) is one of the oldest and most fundamental combinatorial optimiza- tion problems. The bin packing problem and its generalizations arise often in real-world ap- plications, from manufacturing industry, logistics and transportation of goods, and scheduling. After an introductory chapter, I will present two applications of two of the most natural extensions of the bin packing: Chapter 2 will be dedicated to an application of bin packing in two dimension to a problem of scheduling a set of computational tasks on a computer cluster, while Chapter 3 deals with the generalization of BPP in three dimensions that arise frequently in logistic and transportation, often com- plemented with additional constraints on the placement of items and characteristics of the solution, like, for example, guarantees on the stability of the items, to avoid potential damage to the transported goods, on the distribution of the total weight of the bins, and on compatibility with loading and unloading operations. The second part of the thesis, and in particular Chapter 4 considers the Trans- mission Expansion Problem (TEP), where an electrical transmission grid must be expanded so as to satisfy future energy demand at the minimum cost, while main- taining some guarantees of robustness to potential line failures. These problems are gaining importance in a world where a shift towards renewable energy can impose a significant geographical reallocation of generation capacities, resulting in the ne- cessity of expanding current power transmission grids.

Industrial Demilitarized Zone and Zero Trust cybersecurity models for Industrial Control Systems

Today more than ever, with the recent war in Ukraine and the increasing number of attacks that affect systems of nations and companies every day, the world realizes that cybersecurity can no longer be considered just as a “cost”. It must become a pillar for our infrastructures that involve the security of our nations and the safety of people. Critical infrastructure, like energy, financial services, and healthcare, have become targets of many cyberattacks from several criminal groups, with an increasing number of resources and competencies, putting at risk the security and safety of companies and entire nations. This thesis aims to investigate the state-of-the-art regarding the best practice for securing Industrial control systems. We study the differences between two security frameworks. The first is Industrial Demilitarized Zone (I-DMZ), a perimeter-based security solution. The second one is the Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA) which removes the concept of perimeter to offer an entirely new approach to cybersecurity based on the slogan ‘Never Trust, always verify’. Starting from this premise, the Zero Trust model embeds strict Authentication, Authorization, and monitoring controls for any access to any resource. We have defined two architectures according to the State-of-the-art and the cybersecurity experts’ guidelines to compare I-DMZ, and Zero Trust approaches to ICS security. The goal is to demonstrate how a Zero Trust approach dramatically reduces the possibility of an attacker penetrating the network or moving laterally to compromise the entire infrastructure. A third architecture has been defined based on Cloud and fog/edge computing technology. It shows how Cloud solutions can improve the security and reliability of infrastructure and production processes that can benefit from a range of new functionalities, that the Cloud could offer as-a-Service.We have implemented and tested our Zero Trust solution and its ability to block intrusion or attempted attacks.

One Step Forward: Contrasting The Effects Of Toe Clipping And Pit Tagging On Frog Survival And Recapture Probability.

Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark-recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark-recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed, and finally to PIT-tagged individuals. No sex differences were detected. Recapture probability slightly increased with the number of toe pads removed and was the lowest for PIT-tagged individuals. Sex was an important predictor for recapture probability, with males being nearly five times more likely to be recaptured. Potential negative effects of both techniques may include reduced locomotion and high stress levels. We recommend the use of covariates in models to better understand the effects of marking techniques on frogs. Accounting for the effect of the technique on the results should be considered, because most techniques may reduce survival. Based on our results, but also on logistical and cost issues associated with PIT tagging, we suggest the use of toe clipping with anurans like the blacksmith tree frog.

Characterization Of Microsatellite Markers Developed From Prosopis Rubriflora And Prosopis Ruscifolia (leguminosae - Mimosoideae), Legume Species That Are Used As Models For Genetic Diversity Studies In Chaquenian Areas Under Anthropization In South America.

Prosopis rubriflora and Prosopis ruscifolia are important species in the Chaquenian regions of Brazil. Because of the restriction and frequency of their physiognomy, they are excellent models for conservation genetics studies. The use of microsatellite markers (Simple Sequence Repeats, SSRs) has become increasingly important in recent years and has proven to be a powerful tool for both ecological and molecular studies. In this study, we present the development and characterization of 10 new markers for P. rubriflora and 13 new markers for P. ruscifolia. The genotyping was performed using 40 P. rubriflora samples and 48 P. ruscifolia samples from the Chaquenian remnants in Brazil. The polymorphism information content (PIC) of the P. rubriflora markers ranged from 0.073 to 0.791, and no null alleles or deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HW) were detected. The PIC values for the P. ruscifolia markers ranged from 0.289 to 0.883, but a departure from HW and null alleles were detected for certain loci; however, this departure may have resulted from anthropic activities, such as the presence of livestock, which is very common in the remnant areas. In this study, we describe novel SSR polymorphic markers that may be helpful in future genetic studies of P. rubriflora and P. ruscifolia.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Augmented Mixed Models For Clustered Proportion Data.

Often in biomedical research, we deal with continuous (clustered) proportion responses ranging between zero and one quantifying the disease status of the cluster units. Interestingly, the study population might also consist of relatively disease-free as well as highly diseased subjects, contributing to proportion values in the interval [0, 1]. Regression on a variety of parametric densities with support lying in (0, 1), such as beta regression, can assess important covariate effects. However, they are deemed inappropriate due to the presence of zeros and/or ones. To evade this, we introduce a class of general proportion density, and further augment the probabilities of zero and one to this general proportion density, controlling for the clustering. Our approach is Bayesian and presents a computationally convenient framework amenable to available freeware. Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on q-divergence measures are automatic from the Markov chain Monte Carlo output. The methodology is illustrated using both simulation studies and application to a real dataset from a clinical periodontology study.

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study.

To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity. Multicenter cross-sectional study. Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010. A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications. The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women. The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome. Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death). Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

Um estudo das políticas públicas de lazer de Brotas/SP = : Brotas leisure public policies, São Paulo State

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

O setor privado sem fins lucrativos e as políticas públicas de esporte e lazer (2008-2011) = : The non-profitable private sector and the public policies for sport and leisure (2008-2011)

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Possibilidades e limites da avaliação da qualidade de vida : análise dos instrumentos WHOQOL e modelos clássicos de qualidade de vida no trabalho = Possibilities and limits of quality of life assessment : analysis of WHOQOL instruments and quality of work life classical models

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Comparative study of dental arch width in plaster models, photocopies and digitized images

The aim of this study was to comparatively assess dental arch width, in the canine and molar regions, by means of direct measurements from plaster models, photocopies and digitized images of the models. The sample consisted of 130 pairs of plaster models, photocopies and digitized images of the models of white patients (n = 65), both genders, with Class I and Class II Division 1 malocclusions, treated by standard Edgewise mechanics and extraction of the four first premolars. Maxillary and mandibular intercanine and intermolar widths were measured by a calibrated examiner, prior to and after orthodontic treatment, using the three modes of reproduction of the dental arches. Dispersion of the data relative to pre- and posttreatment intra-arch linear measurements (mm) was represented as box plots. The three measuring methods were compared by one-way ANOVA for repeated measurements (α = 0.05). Initial / final mean values varied as follows: 33.94 to 34.29 mm / 34.49 to 34.66 mm (maxillary intercanine width); 26.23 to 26.26 mm / 26.77 to 26.84 mm (mandibular intercanine width); 49.55 to 49.66 mm / 47.28 to 47.45 mm (maxillary intermolar width) and 43.28 to 43.41 mm / 40.29 to 40.46 mm (mandibular intermolar width). There were no statistically significant differences between mean dental arch widths estimated by the three studied methods, prior to and after orthodontic treatment. It may be concluded that photocopies and digitized images of the plaster models provided reliable reproductions of the dental arches for obtaining transversal intra-arch measurements.