Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Wandering, verbally and physically abusive behaviour and their relation with pain in nursing homes residents

Backgrounds:¦Behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) include, among others, hallucinations, delusions, depression, euphoria, agitation, aggression, sexual desinhibition, sleep disturbances, and apathy (1). To our knowledge, surprisingly few studies looked into the possible association between pain and BPSD in nursing home residents. Given this dearth of studies, we wondered whether or not there is an association, in nursing home residents, between pain and BPSD, in particular wandering as well as verbally and physically abusive behaviour, and whether or not this possible association changes with the degree of cognitive impairment.¦Method:¦All nursing home residents in the three Swiss cantons Aargau, Basel-City, and Solothurn (corresponding to 13.5%¦of the total Swiss population) receive a Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS)¦assessment within the first two weeks upon entry. This yielded a total sample of 16'430 nursing home residents considering that the residents' assessment took place between 1997 and 2007 and that we only took into account the admission RAI-MDS assessment. Only residents for whom data on pain was recorded were included in the study (n = 16'183).¦Results:¦Wandering correlated significantly with pain although the effect size was small (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.052; p = 0.000), a result very similar to that found for VAB (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.034; p = 0.000) and PAB (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.043; p = 0.000). Likewise, using linear regression analyses, pain was very significantly associated with any of the three BPSD considered, but it predicted astonishingly little of the¦variance observed (wandering: B = 0.036; p = 0.000; R2 = 0.002; VAB: B = 0.021; p = 0.000; R2 = 0.001 PAB: B = 0.012; p = 0.000; R2 = 0.001). The interaction of pain and cognition had a significant effect on the three BPSD, suggesting that cognition was a moderator of the relationship between pain and all three behaviours.¦Conclusion:¦Wandering behaviours, VAB and PAB seem to be predicted by many factors. Although pain predicts only a small part of variance of these behaviours, it still remains important to recognise and treat pain in order to reduce these behaviours at least a little both in intensity and frequency. Given the dearth of studies and their somewhat contradictory results, further studies ought to investigate the role, the type and localisation of pain might play on the expression of different BPSD or how residents suffering from dementia perceive pain.

Neurological complications of infective endocarditis: risk factors, outcome, and impact of cardiac surgery: a multicenter observational study.

BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence of neurological complications in patients with infective endocarditis, the risk factors for their development, their influence on the clinical outcome, and the impact of cardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on a multicenter cohort of 1345 consecutive episodes of left-sided infective endocarditis from 8 centers in Spain. Cox regression models were developed to analyze variables predictive of neurological complications and associated mortality. Three hundred forty patients (25%) experienced such complications: 192 patients (14%) had ischemic events, 86 (6%) had encephalopathy/meningitis, 60 (4%) had hemorrhages, and 2 (1%) had brain abscesses. Independent risk factors associated with all neurological complications were vegetation size ≥3 cm (hazard ratio [HR] 1.91), Staphylococcus aureus as a cause (HR 2.47), mitral valve involvement (HR 1.29), and anticoagulant therapy (HR 1.31). This last variable was particularly related to a greater incidence of hemorrhagic events (HR 2.71). Overall mortality was 30%, and neurological complications had a negative impact on outcome (45% of deaths versus 24% in patients without these complications; P<0.01), although only moderate to severe ischemic stroke (HR 1.63) and brain hemorrhage (HR 1.73) were significantly associated with a poorer prognosis. Antimicrobial treatment reduced (by 33% to 75%) the risk of neurological complications. In patients with hemorrhage, mortality was higher when surgery was performed within 4 weeks of the hemorrhagic event (75% versus 40% in later surgery). CONCLUSIONS Moderate to severe ischemic stroke and brain hemorrhage were found to have a significant negative impact on the outcome of infective endocarditis. Early appropriate antimicrobial treatment is critical, and transitory discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy should be considered.

Functional Characterization of a Novel Frameshift Mutation in the C-terminus of the Nav1.5 Channel Underlying a Brugada Syndrome with Variable Expression in a Spanish Family.

INTRODUCTION We functionally analyzed a frameshift mutation in the SCN5A gene encoding cardiac Na(+) channels (Nav1.5) found in a proband with repeated episodes of ventricular fibrillation who presented bradycardia and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Seven relatives also carry the mutation and showed a Brugada syndrome with an incomplete and variable expression. The mutation (p.D1816VfsX7) resulted in a severe truncation (201 residues) of the Nav1.5 C-terminus. METHODS AND RESULTS Wild-type (WT) and mutated Nav1.5 channels together with hNavβ1 were expressed in CHO cells and currents were recorded at room temperature using the whole-cell patch-clamp. Expression of p.D1816VfsX7 alone resulted in a marked reduction (≈90%) in peak Na(+) current density compared with WT channels. Peak current density generated by p.D1816VfsX7+WT was ≈50% of that generated by WT channels. p.D1816VfsX7 positively shifted activation and inactivation curves, leading to a significant reduction of the window current. The mutation accelerated current activation and reactivation kinetics and increased the fraction of channels developing slow inactivation with prolonged depolarizations. However, late INa was not modified by the mutation. p.D1816VfsX7 produced a marked reduction of channel trafficking toward the membrane that was not restored by decreasing incubation temperature during cell culture or by incubation with 300 μM mexiletine and 5 mM 4-phenylbutirate. CONCLUSION Despite a severe truncation of the C-terminus, the resulting mutated channels generate currents, albeit with reduced amplitude and altered biophysical properties, confirming the key role of the C-terminal domain in the expression and function of the cardiac Na(+) channel.

Polymeric IgA is superior to monomeric IgA and IgG carrying the same variable domain in preventing Clostridium difficile toxin A damaging of T84 monolayers.

The two exotoxins A and B produced by Clostridium difficile are responsible for antibiotic-associated enterocolitis in human and animals. When added apically to human colonic carcinoma-derived T84 cell monolayers, toxin A, but not toxin B, abolished the transepithelial electrical resistance and altered the morphological integrity. Apical addition of suboptimal concentration of toxin A made the cell monolayer sensitive to toxin B. Both toxins induced drastic and rapid epithelial alterations when applied basolaterally with a complete disorganization of tight junctions and vacuolization of the cells. Toxin A-specific IgG2a from hybridoma PCG-4 added apically with toxin A alone or in combination with toxin B abolished the toxin-induced epithelial alterations for up to 8 h. The Ab neutralized basolateral toxin A for 4 h, but not the mixture of the two toxins. Using an identical Ab:Ag ratio, we found that recombinant polymeric IgA (IgAd/p) with the same Fv fragments extended protection against toxin A for at least 24 h in both compartments. In contrast, the recombinant monomeric IgA counterpart behaved as the PCG-4 IgG2a Ab. The direct comparison between different Ig isotype and molecular forms, but of unique specificity, demonstrates that IgAd/p Ab is more efficient in neutralizing toxin A than monomeric IgG and IgA. We conclude that immune protection against C. difficile toxins requires toxin A-specific secretory Abs in the intestinal lumen and IgAd/p specific for both toxins in the lamina propria.

Parenteral is more efficient than mucosal immunization to induce regression of human papillomavirus-associated genital tumors.

Cervical cancer is a public health concern as it represents the second cause of cancer death in women worldwide. High-risk human papillomaviruses (HPV) are the etiologic agents, and HPV E6 and/or E7 oncogene-specific therapeutic vaccines are under development to treat HPV-related lesions in women. Whether the use of mucosal routes of immunization may be preferable for inducing cell-mediated immune responses able to eradicate genital tumors is still debated because of the uniqueness of the female genital mucosa (GM) and the limited experimentation. Here, we compared the protective activity resulting from immunization of mice via intranasal (i.n.), intravaginal (IVAG) or subcutaneous (s.c.) routes with an adjuvanted HPV type 16 E7 polypeptide vaccine. Our data show that s.c. and i.n. immunizations elicited similar frequencies and avidity of TetE71CD81 and E7-specific Interferon-gamma-secreting cells in the GM, whereas slightly lower immune responses were induced by IVAG immunization. In a novel orthotopic murine model, both s.c. and i.n. immunizations allowed for complete long-term protection against genital E7-expressing tumor challenge. However, only s.c. immunization induced complete regression of already established genital tumors. This suggests that the higher E7-specific systemic response observed after s.c. immunization may contribute to the regression of growing genital tumors, whereas local immune responses may be sufficient to impede genital challenges. Thus, our data show that for an efficiently adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, parenteral vaccination route is superior to mucosal vaccination route for inducing regression of established genital tumors in a murine model of HPV-associated genital cancer.

Fracturas inestables de radio distal. Nuestra experiencia en osteosíntesis con placa volar de ángulo variable

OBJECTIVE: assess the functional, subjective and radiological results obtained in patients treated with variable-angle locking plate for unstable distal radius fracture and compare these results with current studies. PATIENTS AND METHOD: From October of 2008 to July of 2011, 20 patients were included who had undergone intervention using the volar approach to the Flexor Carpi Radialis. The average follow up was 18 months. Both clinical and radiological results were analyzed. The Mayo Wrist Score and DASH questioner were used. RESULTS: The average age was 50 years; 50% men and 50% women. The consolidation of the fracture was verified in all cases. An average volar angle was obtained of 5º, radial inclination of 19º, radial height of 10.5 mm, and ulnar variance of -1 mm. The clinical assessment revealed an average dorsal flexion of 75º, palm flexion of 70º, supination of 75º and pronation of 73 º. The results for the DASH questionnaire showed an average of 17.8 and 82.7 for the Mayo Wrist Score. CONCLUSIONS: Our experience has provided some good results, both in functional and subjective as well as radio logical terms, similar to those found in studies with implants from the same generation.

A new neuropsychological instrument measuring effects of age and drugs on fitness to drive: development, reliability, and validity of MedDrive

Background: Current guidelines underline the limitations of existing instruments to assess fitness to drive and the poor adaptability of batteries of neuropsychological tests in primary care settings. Aims: To provide a free, reliable, transparent computer based instrument capable of detecting effects of age or drugs on visual processing and cognitive functions. Methods: Relying on systematic reviews of neuropsychological tests and driving performances, we conceived four new computed tasks measuring: visual processing (Task1), movement attention shift (Task2), executive response, alerting and orientation gain (Task3), and spatial memory (Task4). We then planned five studies to test MedDrive's reliability and validity. Study-1 defined instructions and learning functions collecting data from 105 senior drivers attending an automobile club course. Study-2 assessed concurrent validity for detecting minor cognitive impairment (MCI) against useful field of view (UFOV) on 120 new senior drivers. Study-3 collected data from 200 healthy drivers aged 20-90 to model age related normal cognitive decline. Study-4 measured MedDrive's reliability having 21 healthy volunteers repeat tests five times. Study-5 tested MedDrive's responsiveness to alcohol in a randomised, double-blinded, placebo, crossover, dose-response validation trial including 20 young healthy volunteers. Results: Instructions were well understood and accepted by all senior drivers. Measures of visual processing (Task1) showed better performances than the UFOV in detecting MCI (ROC 0.770 vs. 0.620; p=0.048). MedDrive was capable of explaining 43.4% of changes occurring with natural cognitive decline. In young healthy drivers, learning effects became negligible from the third session onwards for all tasks except for dual tasking (ICC=0.769). All measures except alerting and orientation gain were affected by blood alcohol concentrations. Finally, MedDrive was able to explain 29.3% of potential causes of swerving on the driving simulator. Discussion and conclusions: MedDrive reveals improved performances compared to existing computed neuropsychological tasks. It shows promising results both for clinical and research purposes.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

Effectiveness of olive oil for the prevention of pressure ulcers caused in immobilized patients within the scope of primary health care: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Pressure ulcers are considered an important issue, mainly affecting immobilized older patients. These pressure ulcers increase the care burden for the professional health service staff as well as pharmaceutical expenditure. There are a number of studies on the effectiveness of different products used for the prevention of pressure ulcers; however, most of these studies were carried out at a hospital level, basically using hyperoxygenated fatty acids (HOFA). There are no studies focused specifically on the use of olive-oil-based products and therefore this research is intended to find the most cost-effective treatment and achieve an alternative treatment. METHODS/DESIGN The main objective is to assess the effectiveness of olive oil, comparing it with HOFA, to treat immobilized patients at home who are at risk of pressure ulcers. As a secondary objective, the cost-effectiveness balance of this new application with regard to the HOFA will be assessed. The study is designed as a noninferiority, triple-blinded, parallel, multi-center, randomized clinical trial. The scope of the study is the population attending primary health centers in Andalucía (Spain) in the regional areas of Malaga, Granada, Seville, and Cadiz. Immobilized patients at risk of pressure ulcers will be targeted. The target group will be treated by application of an olive-oil-based formula whereas the control group will be treated by application of HOFA to the control group. The follow-up period will be 16 weeks. The main variable will be the presence of pressure ulcers in the patient. Secondary variables include sociodemographic and clinical information, caregiver information, and whether technical support exists. Statistical analysis will include the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, symmetry and kurtosis analysis, bivariate analysis using the Student's t and chi-squared tests as well as the Wilcoxon and the Man-Whitney U tests, ANOVA and multivariate logistic regression analysis. DISCUSSION The regular use of olive-oil-based formulas should be effective in preventing pressure ulcers in immobilized patients, thus leading to a more cost-effective product and an alternative treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01595347.

Characteristics and effectiveness of diabetes self-management educational programs targeted to racial/ethnic minority groups: a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression.

BACKGROUND It is not clear to what extent educational programs aimed at promoting diabetes self-management in ethnic minority groups are effective. The aim of this work was to systematically review the effectiveness of educational programs to promote the self-management of racial/ethnic minority groups with type 2 diabetes, and to identify programs' characteristics associated with greater success. METHODS We undertook a systematic literature review. Specific searches were designed and implemented for Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, ISI Web of Knowledge, Scirus, Current Contents and nine additional sources (from inception to October 2012). We included experimental and quasi-experimental studies assessing the impact of educational programs targeted to racial/ethnic minority groups with type 2 diabetes. We only included interventions conducted in countries members of the OECD. Two reviewers independently screened citations. Structured forms were used to extract information on intervention characteristics, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness. When possible, we conducted random-effects meta-analyses using standardized mean differences to obtain aggregate estimates of effect size with 95% confidence intervals. Two reviewers independently extracted all the information and critically appraised the studies. RESULTS We identified thirty-seven studies reporting on thirty-nine educational programs. Most of them were conducted in the US, with African American or Latino participants. Most programs obtained some benefits over standard care in improving diabetes knowledge, self-management behaviors and clinical outcomes. A meta-analysis of 20 randomized controlled trials (3,094 patients) indicated that the programs produced a reduction in glycated hemoglobin of -0.31% (95% CI -0.48% to -0.14%). Diabetes knowledge and self-management measures were too heterogeneous to pool. Meta-regressions showed larger reduction in glycated hemoglobin in individual and face to face delivered interventions, as well as in those involving peer educators, including cognitive reframing techniques, and a lower number of teaching methods. The long-term effects remain unknown and cost-effectiveness was rarely estimated. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes self-management educational programs targeted to racial/ethnic minority groups can produce a positive effect on diabetes knowledge and on self-management behavior, ultimately improving glycemic control. Future programs should take into account the key characteristics identified in this review.

Use of Two-Part Regression Calibration Model to Correct for Measurement Error in Episodically Consumed Foods in a Single-Replicate Study Design: EPIC Case Study.

In epidemiologic studies, measurement error in dietary variables often attenuates association between dietary intake and disease occurrence. To adjust for the attenuation caused by error in dietary intake, regression calibration is commonly used. To apply regression calibration, unbiased reference measurements are required. Short-term reference measurements for foods that are not consumed daily contain excess zeroes that pose challenges in the calibration model. We adapted two-part regression calibration model, initially developed for multiple replicates of reference measurements per individual to a single-replicate setting. We showed how to handle excess zero reference measurements by two-step modeling approach, how to explore heteroscedasticity in the consumed amount with variance-mean graph, how to explore nonlinearity with the generalized additive modeling (GAM) and the empirical logit approaches, and how to select covariates in the calibration model. The performance of two-part calibration model was compared with the one-part counterpart. We used vegetable intake and mortality data from European Prospective Investigation on Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. In the EPIC, reference measurements were taken with 24-hour recalls. For each of the three vegetable subgroups assessed separately, correcting for error with an appropriately specified two-part calibration model resulted in about three fold increase in the strength of association with all-cause mortality, as measured by the log hazard ratio. Further found is that the standard way of including covariates in the calibration model can lead to over fitting the two-part calibration model. Moreover, the extent of adjusting for error is influenced by the number and forms of covariates in the calibration model. For episodically consumed foods, we advise researchers to pay special attention to response distribution, nonlinearity, and covariate inclusion in specifying the calibration model.

Highly variable social organisation of colonies in the ant Formica cinerea.

Social organisation of colonies was examined in the ant Formica cinerea by estimating the coefficient of genetic relatedness among worker nest mates. The estimates based on microsatellite genotypes at three loci ranged from values close to zero to 0.61 across the populations studied in Finland. These results showed that a fundamental feature of colonies, the number of reproductive queens, varied greatly among the populations. Colonies in some populations had a single queen, whereas the nests could have a high number number of queens in other populations. There was a weak but non-significant correlation between the genetic and metric distance of nests within two populations with intermediate level of relatedness. Differentiation among nearby populations (within the dispersal distance of individuals) in one locality indicated limited dispersal or founder effects. This could occur when females are philopatric and stay in the natal polygynous colony which expands by building a network of nest galleries within a single habitat patch.