Expert systems for fault tree synthesis

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies on chemical process plants are very time consuming, and often tedious, tasks. The requirement for HAZOP studies is that a team of experts systematically analyse every conceivable process deviation, identifying possible causes and any hazards that may result. The systematic nature of the task, and the fact that some team members may be unoccupied for much of the time, can lead to tedium, which in turn may lead to serious errors or omissions. An aid to HAZOP are fault trees, which present the system failure logic graphically such that the study team can readily assimilate their findings. Fault trees are also useful to the identification of design weaknesses, and may additionally be used to estimate the likelihood of hazardous events occurring. The one drawback of fault trees is that they are difficult to generate by hand. This is because of the sheer size and complexity of modern process plants. The work in this thesis proposed a computer-based method to aid the development of fault trees for chemical process plants. The aim is to produce concise, structured fault trees that are easy for analysts to understand. Standard plant input-output equation models for major process units are modified such that they include ancillary units and pipework. This results in a reduction in the nodes required to represent a plant. Control loops and protective systems are modelled as operators which act on process variables. This modelling maintains the functionality of loops, making fault tree generation easier and improving the structure of the fault trees produced. A method, called event ordering, is proposed which allows the magnitude of deviations of controlled or measured variables to be defined in terms of the control loops and protective systems with which they are associated.

Exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear stochastic control problem

This work introduces a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. Convergence of the output error for the proposed control method is verified by using a Lyapunov function. Several simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the developed control method. The manner in which such a method is extended to nonlinear multi-variable systems with different delays between the input-output pairs is considered and demonstrated through simulation examples.

The use of expert manpower in health and safety in France

The thesis examines the system of occupational health and safety in France. It analyses the use of expert manpower in the field with a view to establishing the possibility of a profession in health and safety. An input-output model is developed to bring together the necessary elements of prevention of accidents and occupational diseases. The role of institutions concerned with health and safety is analysed with reference to this model. The research establishes the need for a health and safety specialist role. The recognition and status of this role are found to be subject to other criteria including the acceptance by institutions of such a specialist role. The model is also used to define the role of this specialist as expected by the various institutions intervening in the field.

A procedure for determining a spacewise dependent heat source and the initial temperature

The inverse problem of determining a spacewise dependent heat source, together with the initial temperature for the parabolic heat equation, using the usual conditions of the direct problem and information from two supplementary temperature measurements at different instants of time is studied. These spacewise dependent temperature measurements ensure that this inverse problem has a unique solution, despite the solution being unstable, hence the problem is ill-posed. We propose an iterative algorithm for the stable reconstruction of both the initial data and the source based on a sequence of well-posed direct problems for the parabolic heat equation, which are solved at each iteration step using the boundary element method. The instability is overcome by stopping the iterations at the first iteration for which the discrepancy principle is satisfied. Numerical results are presented for a typical benchmark test example, which has the input measured data perturbed by increasing amounts of random noise. The numerical results show that the proposed procedure gives accurate numerical approximations in relatively few iterations.

A variational method for identifying a spacewise-dependent heat source

The inverse problem of determining a spacewise-dependent heat source for the parabolic heat equation using the usual conditions of the direct problem and information from one supplementary temperature measurement at a given instant of time is studied. This spacewise-dependent temperature measurement ensures that this inverse problem has a unique solution, but the solution is unstable and hence the problem is ill-posed. We propose a variational conjugate gradient-type iterative algorithm for the stable reconstruction of the heat source based on a sequence of well-posed direct problems for the parabolic heat equation which are solved at each iteration step using the boundary element method. The instability is overcome by stopping the iterative procedure at the first iteration for which the discrepancy principle is satisfied. Numerical results are presented which have the input measured data perturbed by increasing amounts of random noise. The numerical results show that the proposed procedure yields stable and accurate numerical approximations after only a few iterations.

Determination of a spacewise dependent heat source

This paper investigates the inverse problem of determining a spacewise dependent heat source in the parabolic heat equation using the usual conditions of the direct problem and information from a supplementary temperature measurement at a given single instant of time. The spacewise dependent temperature measurement ensures that the inverse problem has a unique solution, but this solution is unstable, hence the problem is ill-posed. For this inverse problem, we propose an iterative algorithm based on a sequence of well-posed direct problems which are solved at each iteration step using the boundary element method (BEM). The instability is overcome by stopping the iterations at the first iteration for which the discrepancy principle is satisfied. Numerical results are presented for various typical benchmark test examples which have the input measured data perturbed by increasing amounts of random noise.

A meshless method for an inverse two-phase one-dimensional nonlinear Stefan problem

We extend a meshless method of fundamental solutions recently proposed by the authors for the one-dimensional two-phase inverse linear Stefan problem, to the nonlinear case. In this latter situation the free surface is also considered unknown which is more realistic from the practical point of view. Building on the earlier work, the solution is approximated in each phase by a linear combination of fundamental solutions to the heat equation. The implementation and analysis are more complicated in the present situation since one needs to deal with a nonlinear minimization problem to identify the free surface. Furthermore, the inverse problem is ill-posed since small errors in the input measured data can cause large deviations in the desired solution. Therefore, regularization needs to be incorporated in the objective function which is minimized in order to obtain a stable solution. Numerical results are presented and discussed. © 2014 IMACS.

Application of calorimetric method for loss measurement of a SynRM drive system

Synchronous reluctance motors (SynRMs) are gaining in popularity in industrial drives due to their permanent magnet-free, competitive performance, and robust features. This paper studies the power losses in a 90-kW converter-fed SynRM drive by a calorimetric method in comparison of the traditional input-output method. After the converter and the motor were measured simultaneously in separate chambers, the converter was installed inside the large-size chamber next to the motor and the total drive system losses were obtained using one chamber. The uncertainty of both measurement methods is analyzed and discussed.

Typical performance of regular low-density parity-check codes over general symmetric channels

Typical performance of low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes over a general binary-input output-symmetric memoryless channel is investigated using methods of statistical mechanics. Relationship between the free energy in statistical-mechanics approach and the mutual information used in the information-theory literature is established within a general framework; Gallager and MacKay-Neal codes are studied as specific examples of LDPC codes. It is shown that basic properties of these codes known for particular channels, including their potential to saturate Shannon's bound, hold for general symmetric channels. The binary-input additive-white-Gaussian-noise channel and the binary-input Laplace channel are considered as specific channel models.

Multimodal 'Eyes-Free' interaction techniques for mobile devices

Mobile and wearable computers present input/output prob-lems due to limited screen space and interaction techniques. When mobile, users typically focus their visual attention on navigating their environment - making visually demanding interface designs hard to operate. This paper presents two multimodal interaction techniques designed to overcome these problems and allow truly mobile, 'eyes-free' device use. The first is a 3D audio radial pie menu that uses head gestures for selecting items. An evaluation of a range of different audio designs showed that egocentric sounds re-duced task completion time, perceived annoyance, and al-lowed users to walk closer to their preferred walking speed. The second is a sonically enhanced 2D gesture recognition system for use on a belt-mounted PDA. An evaluation of the system with and without audio feedback showed users' ges-tures were more accurate when dynamically guided by au-dio-feedback. These novel interaction techniques demon-strate effective alternatives to visual-centric interface de-signs on mobile devices.

Using the max-sum algorithm for supply chain emergence in dynamic multiunit environments

Supply chain formation (SCF) is the process of determining the set of participants and exchange relationships within a network with the goal of setting up a supply chain that meets some predefined social objective. Many proposed solutions for the SCF problem rely on centralized computation, which presents a single point of failure and can also lead to problems with scalability. Decentralized techniques that aid supply chain emergence offer a more robust and scalable approach by allowing participants to deliberate between themselves about the structure of the optimal supply chain. Current decentralized supply chain emergence mechanisms are only able to deal with simplistic scenarios in which goods are produced and traded in single units only and without taking into account production capacities or input-output ratios other than 1:1. In this paper, we demonstrate the performance of a graphical inference technique, max-sum loopy belief propagation (LBP), in a complex multiunit unit supply chain emergence scenario which models additional constraints such as production capacities and input-to-output ratios. We also provide results demonstrating the performance of LBP in dynamic environments, where the properties and composition of participants are altered as the algorithm is running. Our results suggest that max-sum LBP produces consistently strong solutions on a variety of network structures in a multiunit problem scenario, and that performance tends not to be affected by on-the-fly changes to the properties or composition of participants.

Nonlinear signalling networks and cell-to-cell variability transform external signals into broadly distributed or bimodal responses

We show theoretically and experimentally a mechanismbehind the emergence of wide or bimodal protein distributions in biochemical networks with nonlinear input-output characteristics (the dose-response curve) and variability in protein abundance. Large cell-to-cell variation in the nonlinear dose-response characteristics can be beneficial to facilitate two distinct groups of response levels as opposed to a graded response. Under the circumstances that we quantify mathematically, the two distinct responses can coexist within a cellular population, leading to the emergence of a bimodal protein distribution. Using flow cytometry, we demonstrate the appearance of wide distributions in the hypoxia-inducible factor-mediated response network in HCT116 cells. With help of our theoretical framework, we perform a novel calculation of the magnitude of cell-to-cell heterogeneity in the dose-response obtained experimentally. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

A mixture density network approach to modelling and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear control problems

In nonlinear and stochastic control problems, learning an efficient feed-forward controller is not amenable to conventional neurocontrol methods. For these approaches, estimating and then incorporating uncertainty in the controller and feed-forward models can produce more robust control results. Here, we introduce a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multi-variable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Some Properties of Mittag-Leffler Functions and Matrix-Variate Analogues: A Statistical Perspective

Mathematical Subject Classification 2010:26A33, 33E99, 15A52, 62E15.

Sensitivity Analysis of Some Applied Probability Models

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: Primary 90C31. Secondary 62C12, 62P05, 93C41.