Об использовании некоторых статистических методов для прогнозирования долговременных изменений температуры воздуха (на примере города Тбилиси)

Рассмотрены три метода статистического прогнозирования ожидаемых изменений среднегодовой температуры воздуха в Тбилиси на ближайшие 50 лет до 2056 года (линейное прогнозирование, прогнозирования сглаженных функций с учетом двух периодичностей в ряде наблюдений, линейное прогнозирование с учетом одной периодичности в ряде наблюдений).

Software for Explicitly Parallel Memory-Centric Processor Architecture

Advances in computer memory technology justify research towards new and different views on computer organization. This paper proposes a novel memory-centric computing architecture with the goal to merge memory and processing elements in order to provide better conditions for parallelization and performance. The paper introduces the architectural concepts and afterwards shows the design and implementation of a corresponding assembler and simulator.

A doença de Chagas no Paraná

In recent speech in Curitiba (May 22nd, 1954), Dr. Mario Pinotti, Director, Serviço Nacional da Malaria, informed that his personnel started on February, 1953, a survey upon chagas Disease in 23 counties of the State of Paraná, South Brazil. out of 895 places surveyed, 678, or 75.7%, were infected by Triatoma infestans klug 1834 and in 234 out of those 678, or 34.5%, this vector was infected by Trypanosoma cruzi. The general natural infection of the insects examined reached 18.86%. The serological survey (Machado-Guerreiro test) was positive in 10.7% of the persons examined in jacarezinho and in 28.3% of those living in Bôa Vista. These data suggested the author to actualise the subject. During his control of severe outbreack of malaria in the North part of Paraná, from march to June 1917 he worked in 8 counties. March 1917 he photographed in Boa Vista four girls, severe cases of chronic malaria, two of which showed bi-palpebral oedema, later on considered by Dr. Pinho Simões (1943) as Romanã syndrome (created in 1935) and Prof. Salvador Mazza (1946) classified as typical cases of Chagas' Disease. now, being elapsed 36 years, the National Service of Malaria confirmed the discovery. The region surveyed was populated, in the beginning of this century, by immigrants from the State of Minas Gerais, from where the author believes that were imported the disease and its vectors. In April 1917 the A. discovered that the old town Jatahy was a big focus of Triatoma megista (now Panstrongylus megistus0. All its 43 houses were strongly infested by such hematophagus and amongst the 200 inhabitants seen many were suspicious cases of chronic cases of Chagas's Disease. In the Indians town (three tribes) of S. Pedro D' Alcantara, situated in front of Jatahy, in the left side of the river Tibagy, there were no Triatomas nor suspicious cases of trypanosomiasis. In 1919 the author started the control of the endemics by destroying the foci of Triatomas and reforming the housing. In 1946 he returned to jatahy and found the sanitary conditions of the town and its inhabitants much better. Climate of the region is favorable to spreading of all tropical diseases, being very suitable one for an extensive sanitary survey. In 1943 Dr. Pinho Simões examined 85 triatomas ( T. infestans) from six counties of the North region and found 40, or 46% infected by Trypanosoma cruzi. The highest incidences were; Joaquim Tavora 74.2% and Carlópolis 26.9%. These counties seem to be infested by Itaporanga county of São Paulo State. in 1953 Serviço nacional da Malária proved that 19 out of 23 counties surveyed were infested by Triatoma infestans. They examined 7,701 of this insect and found 1,453 positive for Trypanosoma cruzi, or 18.9%. in two counties, Jacarezinho and Sengés, were examined 2,588 human bloods, not selected, and 323, or 12.6% of such samples were positive for Chagas' Disease. This year the Malaria Service is doing insects survey in 25 other counties and DDTising infested domiciles of another eight. Such activity is very promising and should be extended to other places.

Work and health : remodelling perspectives of working life research, as proposed by Järvholm et al. (2009)

Järvholm and Co-workers (2009) proposed a conceptual model for research on working life. Models are powerful communication and decision tools. This model is strongly unidirectional and does not cover the mentioned interactions in the arguments.With help of a genealogy of work and of health it is shown that work and health are interactive and have to be analysed on the background of society.Key words: research model, work, health, occupational health, society, interaction, discussion paperRemodellierung der von Järvholm et al. (2009) vorgeschlagenen Forschungsperspektiven in Arbeit und GesundheitJärvholm und Kollegen stellten 2009 ein konzeptionelles Modell für die Forschung im Bereich Arbeit und Gesundheit vor. Modelle stellen kraftvolle Kommunikations- und Entscheidungsinstrumente dar. Die Einflussfaktoren im Modell verlaufen jedoch nur in einer Richtung und bilden die interaktiven Argumente im Text nicht ab. Mit Hilfe einer Genealogie der Begriffe Arbeit und Gesundheit wird aufgezeigt, dass Arbeit und Gesundheit sich gegenseitig beeinflussen und nur vor dem Hintergrund der jeweiligen gesellschaftlichen Kontextfaktoren zu analysieren sind.Introduction : After an interesting introduction about the objectives of research on working life, Järvholm and Co-workers (2009) manage to define a conceptual model for working life research out of a small survey of Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) definitions. The strong point of their model is the entity 'working life' including personal development, as well as career paths and aging. Yet, the model Järvholm et al. (2009) propose is strangely unidirectional; the arrows point from the population to working life, from there to health and to disease, as well as to productivity and economic resources. The diagram only shows one feed-back loop: between economic resources and health. We all know that having a chronic disease condition influences work and working capacity. Economic resources have a strong influence on work, too. Having personal economic resources will influence the kind of work someone accepts and facilitate access to continuous professional education. A third observation is that society is not present in the model, although this is less the case in the arguments. In fact, there is an incomprehensible gap between the arguments brought forth by Järvholm and co-workers and their reductionist model.Switzerland has a very low coverage of occupational health specialists. Switzerland is a long way from fulfilling the WHO's recommendations on workers' access to OSH services as described in its Global plan of action. The Institute for Work and Health (IST) in Lausanne is the only organisation which covers the major domains of OSH research that are occupational medicine, occupational hygiene, ergonomic and psychosocial research. As the country's sole occupational health institution we are forced to reflect the objectives of working life research so as not to waste the scare resources available.I will set out below a much shortened genealogy of work and of health, with the aim of extending Järvholm et al's (2009) analyses on the perspectives of working life research in two directions. Firstly towards the interactive nature of work and health and the integration of society, and secondly towards the question of what working life means or where working life could be situated.Work, as we know it today - paid work regulated by a contract as the basis for sustaining life and as a base for social rights - was born in modern era. Therefore I will start my genealogy in the pre-modern era, focus on the important changes that occurred during industrial revolution and the modern era and end in 2010 taking into account the enormous transformations of the past 20-30 years. I will put aside some 810 years of advances in science and technology that have expanded the world's limits and human understanding, and restrict my genealogy to work and to health/body implicating also the societal realm. [Author]

Exploration of the contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of explosives: A study of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers

The increasing number of bomb attacks involving improvised explosive devices, as well as the nature of the explosives, give rise to concern among safety and law enforcement agencies. The substances used in explosive charges are often everyday products diverted from their primary licit applications. Thus, reducing or limiting their accessibility for prevention purposes is difficult. Ammonium nitrate, employed in agriculture as a fertiliser, is used worldwide in small and large homemade bombs. Black powder, dedicated to hunting and shooting sports, is used illegally as a filling in pipe bombs causing extensive damage. If the main developments of instrumental techniques in explosive analysis have been constantly pushing the limits of detection, their actual contribution to the investigation of explosives in terms of source discrimination is limited. Forensic science has seen the emergence of a new technology, isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), that shows promising results. Its very first application in forensic science dates back to 1979. Liu et al. analysed cannabis plants coming from different countries [Liu et al. 1979]. This preliminary study highlighted its potential to discriminate specimens coming from different sources. Thirty years later, the keen interest in this new technology has given rise to a flourishing number of publications in forensic science. The countless applications of IRMS to a wide range of materials and substances attest to its success and suggest that the technique is ready to be used in forensic science. However, many studies are characterised by a lack of methodology and fundamental data. They have been undertaken in a top-down approach, applying this technique in an exploratory manner on a restricted sampling. This manner of procedure often does not allow the researcher to answer a number of questions, such as: do the specimens come from the same source, what do we mean by source or what is the inherent variability of a substance? The production of positive results has prevailed at the expense of forensic fundamentals. This research focused on the evaluation of the contribution of the information provided by isotopic analysis to the investigation of explosives. More specifically, this evaluation was based on a sampling of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers coming from known sources. Not only has the methodology developed in this work enabled us to highlight crucial elements inherent to the methods themselves, but also to evaluate both the longitudinal and transversal variabilities of the information. First, the study of the variability of the profile over time was undertaken. Secondly, the variability of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers within the same source and between different sources was evaluated. The contribution of this information to the investigation of explosives was then evaluated and discussed. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Le nombre croissant d'attentats à la bombe impliquant des engins explosifs artisanaux, ainsi que la nature des charges explosives, constituent une préoccupation majeure pour les autorités d'application de la loi et les organismes de sécurité. Les substances utilisées dans les charges explosives sont souvent des produits du quotidien, détournés de leurs applications licites. Par conséquent, réduire ou limiter l'accessibilité de ces produits dans un but de prévention est difficile. Le nitrate d'ammonium, employé dans l'agriculture comme engrais, est utilisé dans des petits et grands engins explosifs artisanaux. La poudre noire, initialement dédiée à la chasse et au tir sportif, est fréquemment utilisée comme charge explosive dans les pipe bombs, qui causent des dommages importants. Si les développements des techniques d'analyse des explosifs n'ont cessé de repousser les limites de détection, leur contribution réelle à l'investigation des explosifs est limitée en termes de discrimination de sources. Une nouvelle technologie qui donne des résultats prometteurs a fait son apparition en science forensique: la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique (IRMS). Sa première application en science forensique remonte à 1979. Liu et al. ont analysé des plants de cannabis provenant de différents pays [Liu et al. 1979]. Cette étude préliminaire, basée sur quelques analyses, a mis en évidence le potentiel de l'IRMS à discriminer des spécimens provenant de sources différentes. Trente ans plus tard, l'intérêt marqué pour cette nouvelle technologie en science forensique se traduit par un nombre florissant de publications. Les innombrables applications de l'IRMS à une large gamme de matériaux et de substances attestent de son succès et suggèrent que la technique est prête à être utilisée en science forensique. Cependant, de nombreuses études sont caractérisées par un manque de méthodologie et de données fondamentales. Elles ont été menées sans définir les hypothèses de recherche et en appliquant cette technique de façon exploratoire sur un échantillonnage restreint. Cette manière de procéder ne permet souvent pas au chercheur de répondre à un certain nombre de questions, tels que: est-ce que deux spécimens proviennent de la même source, qu'entend-on par source ou encore quelle est l'intravariabilité d'une substance? La production de résultats positifs a prévalu au détriment des fondamentaux de science forensique. Cette recherche s'est attachée à évaluer la contribution réelle de l'information isotopique dans les investigations en matière d'explosifs. Plus particulièrement, cette évaluation s'est basée sur un échantillonnage constitué de poudres noires et d'engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium provenant de sources connues. La méthodologie développée dans ce travail a permis non seulement de mettre en évidence des éléments cruciaux relatifs à la méthode d'analyse elle-même, mais également d'évaluer la variabilité de l'information isotopique d'un point de vue longitudinal et transversal. Dans un premier temps, l'évolution du profil en fonction du temps a été étudiée. Dans un second temps, la variabilité du profil des poudres noires et des engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium au sein d'une même source et entre différentes sources a été évaluée. La contribution de cette information dans le cadre des investigations d'explosifs a ensuite été discutée et évaluée.

Task Force on the Physical Sciences Report and Recommendation

Ireland has positioned itself to take advantage of technological change by encouraging the inward investment of high-tech industries and by providing a highly-educated workforce to sustain and enlarge them. Employment of science, engineering and technology graduates at all levels has been a hallmark of the modern Irish economy, as the educational sector responded to the mix of skills demanded by industry. An outstanding record of graduate output has contributed to the phenomenal growth in Irish-based technology. In an era of rapid technological change, the goal of "scientific literacy for all" has become a primary objective of a general education. Science is one of three literacy domains, along with reading and mathematics, that is included in measures of educational achievement by the OECD.

Ús de l'entorn virtual LAMS per a la creació de seqüències didàctiques col·laboratives i personalitzables

LAMS (Learning Activity Management System), com a projecte de programari lliure basat en tecnologies web, va ser alliberat a la comunitat d'usuaris i desenvolupadors el Febrer del 2005, des d'aquesta data fins avui s'han produït una sèrie d'avenços i innovacions que ha permès fer extensiu l'ús d'aquest entorn a persones amb pocs coneixements de programació i relacionades amb la pedagogia i el disseny instruccional. La investigació portada a terme ha permès a un grup d'investigadors de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) aprofundir en el disseny instruccional de seqüències didàctiques amb LAMS potenciant dos aspectes clau, el treball col·laboratiu virtual i també la personalització de l'aprenentatge per part de l'estudiant. Durant la recerca es va elaborar una guia de disseny instruccional per implementar activitats didàctiques amb LAMS que tinguin les dos característiques anteriorment descrites, i va servir com a referència per portar a terme una prova pilot amb estudiants de la universitat per tal de valorar el seu grau de satisfacció amb el procés d'aprenentatge mitjançant l'ús de l'entorn virtual LAMS. L'estudi revela un elevat grau de satisfacció en quant als dos factors examinats, d'una banda, els estudiants consideren que les activitats proporcionades afavoreixen la construcció de coneixement col·lectiu i, d'altra banda, també consideren que és molt positiu que es pugui personalitzar l'aprenentatge mitjançant l'elecció de les activitats a fer per adquirir una competència específica.

Comprehensive analysis of RET common and rare variant patientsin a series of Spanish Hirschsprung patients confirms a synergistic effect of both kinds of events

Background. RET is the major gene associated to Hirschsprung disease (HSCR) with differential contributions of its rare and common, coding and noncoding mutations to the multifactorial nature of this pathology. In the present study, we have performed a comprehensive study of our HSCR series evaluating the involvement of both RET rare variants (RVs) and common variants (CVs) in the context of the disease. Methods. RET mutational screening was performed by dHPLC and direct sequencing for the identification of RVs. In addition Taqman technology was applied for the genotyping of 3 RET CVs previously associated to HSCR, including a variant lying in an enhancer domain within RET intron 1 (rs2435357). Statistical analyses were performed using the SPSS v.17.0 to analyze the distribution of the variants. Results. Our results confirm the strongest association to HSCR for the "enhancer" variant, and demonstrate a significantly higher impact of it in male versus female patients. Integration of the RET RVs and CVs analysis showed that in 91.66% of cases with both kinds of mutational events, the enhancer allele is in trans with the allele bearing the RET RV. Conclusions. A gender effect exists on both the transmission and distribution of rare coding and common HSCR causing mutations. In addition, these RET CVs and RVs seem to act in a synergistic way leading to HSCR phenotype.

Toma de decisiones en Enfermería de Urgencias, Emergencias y Catástrofes: Márgenes de Autonomía y Responsabilidad

Fear of achieving higher levels of nurse autonomy must be overcome for a new environment of relationships, change, communication and respect within the multidisciplinary team. The progressive achievement of new skills, the handling of evidence and the implementation of models and ways of working based on the nursing process, through encouraged training courses into the company and by the possibility of resource management in line and technology, foster as the ideal setting for Emergency Nursing, Emergency and Disaster acquires its own identity and development.

The Farm, the city, and the emergence of social security

We study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries suggest that urbanization and industrialization are associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe an OLG model in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together in a political economy equilibrium. In the model economy, there are two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial) and the decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Farmers rely on land inheritance for their old age and do not support a pay-as-you-go social security system. With structural change, people migrate to the city, the land loses its importance and support for social security arises. We show that a calibrated version of this economy, where social security taxes are determined by majority voting, is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States.

Iterative image reconstruction techniques: cardiothoracic computed tomography applications.

Iterative image reconstruction algorithms provide significant improvements over traditional filtered back projection in computed tomography (CT). Clinically available through recent advances in modern CT technology, iterative reconstruction enhances image quality through cyclical image calculation, suppressing image noise and artifacts, particularly blooming artifacts. The advantages of iterative reconstruction are apparent in traditionally challenging cases-for example, in obese patients, those with significant artery calcification, or those with coronary artery stents. In addition, as clinical use of CT has grown, so have concerns over ionizing radiation associated with CT examinations. Through noise reduction, iterative reconstruction has been shown to permit radiation dose reduction while preserving diagnostic image quality. This approach is becoming increasingly attractive as the routine use of CT for pediatric and repeated follow-up evaluation grows ever more common. Cardiovascular CT in particular, with its focus on detailed structural and functional analyses, stands to benefit greatly from the promising iterative solutions that are readily available.

Tillage Manure Managemen and Water Quality, April 2005

Tillage and manure application practices significantly impact surface and ground water quality in Iowa and other Midwestern states. Tillage and manure application that incorporates residue and disturbs soil result in higher levels of soil erosion and surface runoff. Phosphorus and sediment loading are closely linked to the increase in soil erosion and surface water runoff. Manure application (i.e., injection or incorporation) reduces surface residue cover, which can worsen soil erosion regardless of the tillage management system being used. An integrated system approach to manure and tillage management is critical to ensure effi cient nutrient use and improvement of soil and water quality. This approach, however, requires changes in manure application technology and tillage system management to ensure the success of an integrated

CLFP intrinsic constraints-based group management of blended learning situations

When applying a Collaborative Learning Flow Pattern (CLFP) to structure sequences of activities in real contexts, one of the tasks is to organize groups of students according to the constraints imposed by the pattern. Sometimes,unexpected events occurring at runtime force this pre-defined distribution to be changed. In such situations, an adjustment of the group structures to be adapted to the new context is needed. If the collaborative pattern is complex, this group redefinitionmight be difficult and time consuming to be carried out in real time. In this context, technology can help on notifying the teacher which incompatibilitiesbetween the actual context and the constraints imposed by the pattern. This chapter presents a flexible solution for supporting teachers in the group organization profiting from the intrinsic constraints defined by a CLFPs codified in IMS Learning Design. A prototype of a web-based tool for the TAPPS and Jigsaw CLFPs and the preliminary results of a controlled user study are alsopresented as a first step towards flexible technological systems to support grouping tasks in this context.