Towards an epistemological theory of historical consciousness

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the concept of historical consciousness. It argues that a focus on the epistemological problems of the concept can be a way of constructing a theory of the concept that both incorporates the diverse perspectives that exist in research about the concept and specifies how a historical consciousness can be developed in an individual.

Historical Consciousness and Historical Media : A History Didactical Approach to Educational Media

This paper presents a theoretical approach to analysing educational media using the concept of historical consciousness. The concept of historical consciousness is defined and operationalised and its relevance for analysis of historical media discussed. One aspect of the theoretical framework proposed is then applied in an analysis of a history textbook account. The analysis finds that while the framework may be applied in analysis of textbooks, its results regarding historical consciousness are tentative and in need of further investigation from the perspective of how its users perceive and appropriate the textbook account. Still, it is argued that the framework proposed may be useful since it specifies how a historical consciousness may be manifested and what methodological approaches that can be used when analysing it.

Historical Consciousness, Historical Media, and History Education

This thesis by publication contains an introductory summary chapter and three papers. The first paper presents a study of how the concept of historical consciousness has been defined, applied, and justified in Swedish history didactical research. It finds that there is consensus regarding the definition of what a historical consciousness is, but that there is variation in how the concept is applied. It is suggested that this variation makes historical con­sciousness a complex and vague concept.      The second paper uses the results presented in the first paper as a point of departure and from thence argues for a broadened understanding of the concept of historical consciousness that incorporates its definition, applica­tion, development, and significance. The study includes research about his­torical consciousness primarily from Sweden, the UK, the USA and Canada. The paper presents a typology of historical consciousness and argues that level of contextualisation is what distinguishes different types of historical consciousnesses and that an ability to contextualise is also what makes his­torical consciousness an important concept for identity constitution and morality.      The third paper proposes a methodological framework of historical con­sciousness based on the theory of historical consciosusness presented in the second paper. It presents arguments for why the framework of historical consciousness proposed can be useful for the analysis of historical media and it discusses how aspects of the framework can be applied in analysis. It then presents a textbook analysis that has been performed according to the stipulated framework and discusses its results regarding how textbooks can be used to analyse historical consciousness and its development.

Representation and interpretation : textbooks, teachers, and historical culture

This article presents a study of how contemporary Swedish lower secondary school textbooks present the emergence of the Cold War and how 10 active lower secondary school history teachers interpreted a quotation that was ambiguous in relation to the general narrative in the studied Swedish textbooks, seeking to analyse textbooks both from the perspectives of content and reception. Applying a theoretical framework of uses of history, the study finds that the narratives presented in the studied textbooks are what could be called traditional in the sense that they do not acknowledge perspective and representation in history. While the interviewed teachers generally acknowledged that textbook narratives are representations of history and contingent on perspective, few teachers extended this to include how their own views affect their interpretations, suggesting an intermediary appreciation of the contextual contingency of historical narratives.

Marketing Social Change: A Comparative Historical and Methodological Analysis of Anti-Smoking Endeavors

Even though assessing social marketing endeavors proves to be challenging, evaluators can learn from previous campaigns and identify which facets of social marketing events, programs and campaigns need to be improved. Additionally, by analyzing social movements and evaluating how they connect to social marketing, we can gain a clearer view on ways to ameliorate the field of social marketing. As social marketing becomes increasingly sophisticated and similar to commercial marketing, there is hope that social marketing can yield higher rates of success in the future. Friend and Levy (2002) claimed that it was nearly impossible to compare social marketing endeavors using quantitative criteria and advocate the use of qualitative methods. However, if social marketing scholars developed a more systematic paradigm to assess events, programs and campaigns employing a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods, then it would be easier to establish which social marketing efforts generated more success than others. When there are too many confounding variables, conclusions cannot always be drawn and evaluations may not be viewed as legitimate. As a result, critics become skeptical of social marketing’s value and both the importance and credibility of social marketing decline. With the establishment of proper criteria and evaluation methods, social marketing can progress and initiate more social change.

An overview of some historical brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inflation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inflation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Cópulas: uma alternativa para a estimação de modelos de risco multivariados

Dentre os principais desafios enfrentados no cálculo de medidas de risco de portfólios está em como agregar riscos. Esta agregação deve ser feita de tal sorte que possa de alguma forma identificar o efeito da diversificação do risco existente em uma operação ou em um portfólio. Desta forma, muito tem se feito para identificar a melhor forma para se chegar a esta definição, alguns modelos como o Valor em Risco (VaR) paramétrico assumem que a distribuição marginal de cada variável integrante do portfólio seguem a mesma distribuição , sendo esta uma distribuição normal, se preocupando apenas em modelar corretamente a volatilidade e a matriz de correlação. Modelos como o VaR histórico assume a distribuição real da variável e não se preocupam com o formato da distribuição resultante multivariada. Assim sendo, a teoria de Cópulas mostra-se um grande alternativa, à medida que esta teoria permite a criação de distribuições multivariadas sem a necessidade de se supor qualquer tipo de restrição às distribuições marginais e muito menos as multivariadas. Neste trabalho iremos abordar a utilização desta metodologia em confronto com as demais metodologias de cálculo de Risco, a saber: VaR multivariados paramétricos - VEC, Diagonal,BEKK, EWMA, CCC e DCC- e VaR histórico para um portfólio resultante de posições idênticas em quatro fatores de risco – Pre252, Cupo252, Índice Bovespa e Índice Dow Jones

Diversificação internacional no contexto brasileiro

Este trabalho contribui a discussão de diversificação internacional no contexto de investidores brasileiros com referência na moeda local (Reais). O trabalho testa as seguintes hipóteses: (1) se a adição de ativos internacionais não aumenta a eficiência (melhora na relação retorno/risco) de carteiras somente com ativos brasileiros, (2) se carteiras de menor risco exigem mais alocações internacionais e, (3) se alocação de ativos é parecida para investidores com referências em dólar ou em reais. Esse trabalho utiliza modelos já conhecidos de fronteiras eficientes com aplicação de técnicas que utilizam rotinas de Monte Carlo para suavizar possíveis erros na estimação dos retornos das classes de ativos, que incorporam ainda incertezas sobre o câmbio. Nas simulações são utilizadas uma cesta de ativos locais e uma cesta de ativos que melhor representa o mercado internacional. Apesar da grande maioria dos investidores brasileiros utilizarem muito pouco ativos internacionais em suas carteiras, seja por motivos de Home Bias, fatores históricos macroeconômicos evidenciados pelas altas taxas de juros ou limitações regulatórias, os resultados empíricos demonstram que existem ganhos de eficiência para as carteiras de investidores brasileiros ao se incluir ativos internacionais na alocação de ativos. Esses ganhos de eficiência são evidenciados para todos os perfis de risco, desde os mais conservadores até os perfis mais agressivos. Os resultados mostram que quanto maior o perfil de risco da carteira, maior é a alocação internacional que maximiza a eficiência da carteira. E por último, a referência da moeda muda significativamente a alocação eficiente de carteiras, carteiras com referência em dólar exigem menos diversificação com ativos em reais do que carteiras com referência em Reais exigem diversificação com ativos internacionais.

An overview of some historical Brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inHation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inHation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

O efeito da diversificação na mineração

Neste trabalho, medimos os efeitos da diversificação sob o aspecto de risco e retorno entre os grandes players globais de mineração. Para avaliar a diversificação, primeiramente, foi criado um ranking que relaciona risco, grau de diversificação e retorno das empresas. Foi necessário montar um banco de dados com séries de receita e de proxies de geração de caixa por negócios, o qual não se encontra prontamente disponível na Bloomberg, Economática ou em outras bases de dados públicas. Estimamos os efeitos da diversificação fazendo o uso do CAPM para calcular o beta das empresas e das estatísticas básicas das séries históricas de retornos para encontrar o Índice de Sharpe. Examinamos os demonstrativos financeiros das empresas para entender com maior profundidade seus negócios para uma amostra equivalente a 50% do valor de mercado das top 100 empresas de mineração do mundo para o período entre 2002 e 2014. Por fim, abordamos, sob a forma de estudo de caso, questões relevantes na diversificação como a eficiência e a disciplina na alocação de capital. Nosso estudo confirmou que existe uma correlação negativa entre o risco e o grau de diversificação e que há sinais que sugerem que as companhias mais focadas possuem maior disciplina na alocação do capital, e, com isso geram mais valor para seus acionistas.

Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets

In this paper, we focus on the tails of the unconditional distribution of Latin American emerging markets stock returns. We explore their implications for portfolio diversification according to the safety tirst principIe, tirst proposed by Roy (1952). We tind that the Latin American emerging markets have signiticantly fatter tails than industrial markets. especially, the lower tail of the distrihution. We consider the implication of the safety tirst principIe for a U .S. investor who creates a diversitied portfolio using Latin American stock markets. We tind that a U.S. investor gains by adding Latin American equity markets to her purely domestic portfolio. For different parameter specitications. we finu a more realistic asset allocation than the one suggested by the Iiterature haseu on the traditional mean-variance framework.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.