Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

A Factor analysis of hidrochemical composition of Llobregat river basin

Hydrogeological research usually includes some statistical studies devised to elucidate mean background state, characterise relationships among different hydrochemical parameters, and show the influence of human activities. These goals are achieved either by means of a statistical approach or by mixing models between end-members. Compositional data analysis has proved to be effective with the first approach, but there is no commonly accepted solution to the end-member problem in a compositional framework. We present here a possible solution based on factor analysis of compositions illustrated with a case study. We find two factors on the compositional bi-plot fitting two non-centered orthogonal axes to the most representative variables. Each one of these axes defines a subcomposition, grouping those variables that lay nearest to it. With each subcomposition a log-contrast is computed and rewritten as an equilibrium equation. These two factors can be interpreted as the isometric log-ratio coordinates (ilr) of three hidden components, that can be plotted in a ternary diagram. These hidden components might be interpreted as end-members. We have analysed 14 molarities in 31 sampling stations all along the Llobregat River and its tributaries, with a monthly measure during two years. We have obtained a bi-plot with a 57% of explained total variance, from which we have extracted two factors: factor G, reflecting geological background enhanced by potash mining; and factor A, essentially controlled by urban and/or farming wastewater. Graphical representation of these two factors allows us to identify three extreme samples, corresponding to pristine waters, potash mining influence and urban sewage influence. To confirm this, we have available analysis of diffused and widespread point sources identified in the area: springs, potash mining lixiviates, sewage, and fertilisers. Each one of these sources shows a clear link with one of the extreme samples, except fertilisers due to the heterogeneity of their composition. This approach is a useful tool to distinguish end-members, and characterise them, an issue generally difficult to solve. It is worth note that the end-member composition cannot be fully estimated but only characterised through log-ratio relationships among components. Moreover, the influence of each endmember in a given sample must be evaluated in relative terms of the other samples. These limitations are intrinsic to the relative nature of compositional data

Analysis of Pleistocene paleodrainage evolution in the Po Basin (Italy) by multivariate statistical techniques

In order to obtain a high-resolution Pleistocene stratigraphy, eleven continuously cored boreholes, 100 to 220m deep were drilled in the northern part of the Po Plain by Regione Lombardia in the last five years. Quantitative provenance analysis (QPA, Weltje and von Eynatten, 2004) of Pleistocene sands was carried out by using multivariate statistical analysis (principal component analysis, PCA, and similarity analysis) on an integrated data set, including high-resolution bulk petrography and heavy-mineral analyses on Pleistocene sands and of 250 major and minor modern rivers draining the southern flank of the Alps from West to East (Garzanti et al, 2004; 2006). Prior to the onset of major Alpine glaciations, metamorphic and quartzofeldspathic detritus from the Western and Central Alps was carried from the axial belt to the Po basin longitudinally parallel to the SouthAlpine belt by a trunk river (Vezzoli and Garzanti, 2008). This scenario rapidly changed during the marine isotope stage 22 (0.87 Ma), with the onset of the first major Pleistocene glaciation in the Alps (Muttoni et al, 2003). PCA and similarity analysis from core samples show that the longitudinal trunk river at this time was shifted southward by the rapid southward and westward progradation of transverse alluvial river systems fed from the Central and Southern Alps. Sediments were transported southward by braided river systems as well as glacial sediments transported by Alpine valley glaciers invaded the alluvial plain. Kew words: Detrital modes; Modern sands; Provenance; Principal Components Analysis; Similarity, Canberra Distance; palaeodrainage

Análisis de la aplicación de políticas de seguridad ambiental para el desarrollo sostenible. Caso de estudio: Departamento del Amazonas-Colombia, periodo comprendido entre 2006 – 2012

En medio de los desafíos ambientales que enfrentan los gobiernos del mundo, Colombia posee un territorio que concentra múltiples retos para el desarrollo de políticas, planes y programas pertinentes para la protección de los recursos naturales. Hoy en día el departamento de Amazonas, ubicado estratégicamente al sur del país en una zona limítrofe de alta importancia en la región amazónica, experimenta serias problemáticas como la deforestación, la minería legal e ilegal, y la degradación hídrica. Este trabajo de investigación es un estudio de caso analítico y descriptivo, que busca analizar de qué manera la aplicación de políticas de seguridad ambiental por parte del gobierno colombiano ha contribuido con el desarrollo sostenible en el departamento del Amazonas, estableciendo las principales problemáticas en términos de seguridad ambiental e identificando las políticas que se han desarrollado para la protección de este territorio.

Implicaciones comerciales de la Diplomacia Petrolera China en el Amazonas ecuatoriano. 2007 - 2013

El presente Estudio de Caso tiene como objetivo analizar en qué medida las dinámicas comerciales de la Diplomacia Petrolera China han convertido a Ecuador en un socio estratégico para la RPCh. El petróleo como fuente de energía es primordial para llevar a cabo los procesos de industrialización y mantener el crecimiento económico del león Asiático. Por eso su búsqueda se ha convertido en un tema principal dentro de la agenda de política exterior. Ecuador, el tercer país de Suramérica con más reservas de petróleo, después de Venezuela y Brasil, se ha convertido en zona de influencia de la RPCh y a través de las empresas petroleras estatales se han firmado contratos por la venta de petróleo. A pesar de que las relaciones bilaterales son asimétricas, se buscar establecer si Ecuador es un socio estratégico en la región.

Caminando entre médicos y chamanes. Un documental sobre la salud en el Amazonas colombiano

En el departamento de Amazonas el servicio de salud es precario pues no se tienen en cuenta las necesidades particulares de la región, las condiciones demográficas, geográficas y las tradiciones culturales y ancestrales que hacen parte de la medicina tradicional indígena.

Análisis de costos y gestión académica en instituciones de enseñanza superior del Estado de Amazonas-Brasil.

Resumen tomado de la publicación

El proyecto para el Amazonas : un caso sobre agua, industrialización y ecología.

En una zona virgen del Amazonas se proyecta construir un gran complejo industrial que supondrá un gran desarrollo económico para el lugar y atraerá trabajadores de todo Brasil. Los sindicatos son muy favorables a esta iniciativa. La envergadura del proyecto ha suscitado, sin embargo, algunas dudas sobre sus posibles efectos contaminantes en las aguas del río y sobre las eventuales consecuencias para las poblaciones ribereñas del Amazonas. Colectivos ecologistas y otros grupos ven peligrar con este proyecto la calidad ambiental de un entorno en el que hasta ahora se han desarrollado actividades sostenibles. La gestión de los recursos hídricos, los impactos de la actividad industrial sobre el medio ambiente, los conflictos entre el desarrollo económico y la sostenibilidad o el respeto a los derechos de las poblaciones indígenas son algunos de los asuntos que se dirimen en este debate en que una comisión de senadores habrá de jugar un papel de mediador y evaluar la conveniencia o no de desarrollar el proyecto.

Amazonas del Ecuador.

Programa emitido el 16 de junio de 1995

Amazonas del Ecuador : los Guaoranis.

Programa emitido el 23 de junio de 1995

El tiempo del agua. Mocambo : una escuela rural en el Amazonas

Reportaje.

Basin-scale hydrodynamics in a Mediterranean reservoir. Implications for the phytoplankton dynamics

Procesos hidrodinámicos determinan, en un alto grado la calidad del agua en embalse, sin embargo dichos procesos han sido tradicionalmente olvidados en la gestión de embalse. En esta tesis se presentan evidencias de los principales procesos hidrodinámicos que ocurren en un embalse Mediterráneo a escala de cuenca a través de campañas experimentales y modelización numérica; y su influencia en la dinámica de poblaciones de fitoplancton. Dichos procesos son principalmente la generación de ondas internas o secas y la intrusión del río. La presencia de viento periódico genera secas forzadas, amplificando los modos cercanos al periodo del viento, de manera que modos verticales altos, considerados como raros en la naturaleza, tienden a dominar en el sistema.

Programa de letramento reescrevendo o futuro : uma experiência de formação de alfabetizadores no Estado do Amazonas

O presente estudo apresenta uma pesquisa qualitativa e tem como objetivo analisar a experiência de formação de alfabetizadores de EJA do Programa de Letramento Reescrevendo o Futuro desenvolvido pela Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, contemplando sua abordagem teórica e prática a fim de verificar se as formações inicial e continuada à luz das concepções construtivistas e sociointeracionistas têm possibilitado a aderência entre a teoria e prática. A proposta de formação do Programa é pautada em uma prática reflexiva e dialógica que toma como ponto de partida os saberes dos professores, que no caso do programa em questão, são na sua maioria acadêmicos dos cursos de pedagogia e normal superior da própria Universidade e de outras instituições de ensino superior. Tomaremos como referenciais para esta pesquisa, as contribuições de Maurice Tardif sobre saberes docentes, a vertente sociológica expressada pelo conceito de habitus, as contribuições de Piaget, Vygotsky e Emília Ferreiro, cujas investigações têm favorecido a consolidação de uma concepção sobre o processo de aprendizagem como resultado da ação do aprendiz e ainda a proposta metodológica de Heloisa Vilas Boas, uma Doutora brasileira em linguística, que nos apresenta uma nova alternativa didática de alfabetização.

A actuação do enfermeiro como gestor na unidade de terapia intensiva do Hospital Regional do Baixo Amazonas-Santarém-Pará-Brasil : um estudo de caso

Estudo descritivo que teve como objetivo avaliar a atuação do enfermeiro como gestor da Unidade de Terapia Intensiva do Hospital Regional do Baixo Amazonas Dr. Waldemar Pena – HRBA, o qual obteve o selo de Acreditado em Nível 1 em 2012. Para a obtenção dos dados utilizou-se um questionário elaborado com 10 perguntas subjetivas e aplicado aos enfermeiros gerentes que atuam nas Unidades de Terapia Intensiva e CTI do HRBA. Verificou-se nesse estudo que são indivíduos na faixa etária de 25 a 45 anos, com predominância do gênero feminino, com especialização em áreas diversas da enfermagem. Na atuação no setor de gerência, os enfermeiros estabelecem prioridades, direcionando sua equipe para os atendimentos assistenciais complexos aos pacientes, ficando o trabalho burocrático para ser realizado por último. Os entraves relatados são a insatisfação e o desgaste no exercício da função de gerente da unidade devido ao excesso de funcionários sem experiência em UTI, falta de autonomia, dupla jornada de trabalho, excesso de burocracia entre outras situações que se tornam motivos de estresse. Concluiu-se que a atuação do enfermeiro como gerente se respalda na função assistencial ao paciente através de cuidados diretos e indiretos e na organização dos trabalhos burocráticos na Unidade de Terapia Intensiva.