Modelling High-Dimensional Data by Mixtures of Factor Analyzers

We focus on mixtures of factor analyzers from the perspective of a method for model-based density estimation from high-dimensional data, and hence for the clustering of such data. This approach enables a normal mixture model to be fitted to a sample of n data points of dimension p, where p is large relative to n. The number of free parameters is controlled through the dimension of the latent factor space. By working in this reduced space, it allows a model for each component-covariance matrix with complexity lying between that of the isotropic and full covariance structure models. We shall illustrate the use of mixtures of factor analyzers in a practical example that considers the clustering of cell lines on the basis of gene expressions from microarray experiments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Indirect evidence of density-dependent population regulation in Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari : Ixodidae), an ectoparasite of reptiles

The extent to which density-dependent processes regulate natural populations is the subject of an ongoing debate. We contribute evidence to this debate showing that density-dependent processes influence the population dynamics of the ectoparasite Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari: Ixodidae), a tick species that infests reptiles in Australia. The first piece of evidence comes from an unusually long-term dataset on the distribution of ticks among individual hosts. If density-dependent processes are influencing either host mortality or vital rates of the parasite population, and those distributions can be approximated with negative binomial distributions, then general host-parasite models predict that the aggregation coefficient of the parasite distribution will increase with the average intensity of infections. We fit negative binomial distributions to the frequency distributions of ticks on hosts, and find that the estimated aggregation coefficient k increases with increasing average tick density. This pattern indirectly implies that one or more vital rates of the tick population must be changing with increasing tick density, because mortality rates of the tick's main host, the sleepy lizard, Tiliqua rugosa, are unaffected by changes in tick burdens. Our second piece of evidence is a re-analysis of experimental data on the attachment success of individual ticks to lizard hosts using generalized linear modelling. The probability of successful engorgement decreases with increasing numbers of ticks attached to a host. This is direct evidence of a density-dependent process that could lead to an increase in the aggregation coefficient of tick distributions described earlier. The population-scale increase in the aggregation coefficient is indirect evidence of a density-dependent process or processes sufficiently strong to produce a population-wide pattern, and thus also likely to influence population regulation. The direct observation of a density-dependent process is evidence of at least part of the responsible mechanism.

An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Study of n-fold Weibull competing risk model

This paper deals with an n-fold Weibull competing risk model. A characterisation of the WPP plot is given along with estimation of model parameters when modelling a given data set. These are illustrated through two examples. A study of the different possible shapes for the density and failure rate functions is also presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The tree cut and merge algorithm for estimation of network reliability

This article presents Monte Carlo techniques for estimating network reliability. For highly reliable networks, techniques based on graph evolution models provide very good performance. However, they are known to have significant simulation cost. An existing hybrid scheme (based on partitioning the time space) is available to speed up the simulations; however, there are difficulties with optimizing the important parameter associated with this scheme. To overcome these difficulties, a new hybrid scheme (based on partitioning the edge set) is proposed in this article. The proposed scheme shows orders of magnitude improvement of performance over the existing techniques in certain classes of network. It also provides reliability bounds with little overhead.

Stereological and other methods applied to rock joint size estimation - Does Crofton's theorem apply?

A number of authors concerned with the analysis of rock jointing have used the idea that the joint areal or diametral distribution can be linked to the trace length distribution through a theorem attributed to Crofton. This brief paper seeks to demonstrate why Crofton's theorem need not be used to link moments of the trace length distribution captured by scan line or areal mapping to the moments of the diametral distribution of joints represented as disks and that it is incorrect to do so. The valid relationships for areal or scan line mapping between all the moments of the trace length distribution and those of the joint size distribution for joints modeled as disks are recalled and compared with those that might be applied were Crofton's theorem assumed to apply. For areal mapping, the relationship is fortuitously correct but incorrect for scan line mapping.

Estimation of body fatness from body mass index and bioelectrical impedance: comparison of New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children

Objective: To compare percentage body fat (%BF) for a given body mass index (BMI) among New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children. To develop prediction equations based on bioimpedance measurements for the estimation of fat-free mass (FFM) appropriate to children in these three ethnic groups. Design: Cross-sectional study. Purposive sampling of schoolchildren aimed at recruiting three children of each sex and ethnicity for each year of age. Double cross-validation of FFM prediction equations developed by multiple regression. Setting: Local schools in Auckland. Subjects: Healthy European, Maori and Pacific Island children (n = 172, 83 M, 89 F, mean age 9.4 +/- 2.8(s. d.), range 5 - 14 y). Measurements: Height, weight, age, sex and ethnicity were recorded. FFM was derived from measurements of total body water by deuterium dilution and resistance and reactance were measured by bioimpedance analysis. Results: For fixed BMI, the Maori and Pacific Island girls averaged 3.7% lower % BF than European girls. For boys a similar relation was not found since BMI did not significantly influence % BF of European boys ( P = 0.18). Based on bioimpedance measurements a single prediction equation was developed for all children: FFM (kg) = 0.622 height (cm)(2)/ resistance +0.234 weight (kg)+1.166, R-2 = 0.96, s. e. e. = 2.44 kg. Ethnicity, age and sex were not significant predictors. Conclusions: A robust equation for estimation of FFM in New Zealand European, Maori and Pacific Island children in the 5 - 14 y age range that is more suitable than BMI for the determination of body fatness in field studies has been developed. Sponsorship: Maurice and Phyllis Paykel Trust, Auckland University of Technology Contestable Grants Fund and the Ministry of Health.

Centile reference for total energy expenditure in infants from 1 to 12 months

Background: A knowledge of energy expenditure in infancy is required for the estimation of recommended daily amounts of food energy, for designing artificial infant feeds, and as a reference standard for studies of energy metabolism in disease states. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to construct centile reference charts for total energy expenditure (TEE) in infants across the first year of life. Methods: Repeated measures of TEE using the doubly labeled water technique were made in 162 infants at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. In total, 322 TEE measurements were obtained. The LMS method with maximum penalized likelihood was used to construct the centile reference charts. Centiles were constructed for TEE expressed as MJ/day and also expressed relative to body weight (BW) and fat-free mass (FFM). Results: TEE increased with age and was 1.40,1.86, 2.64, 3.07 and 3.65 MJ/day at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, respectively. The standard deviations were 0.43, 0.47, 0.52, 0.66 and 0.88, respectively. TEE in MJ/kg increased from 0.29 to 0.36 and in MJ/day/kg FFM from 0.36 to 0.48. Conclusions: We have presented centile reference charts for TEE expressed as MJ/day and expressed relative to BW and FFM in infants across the first year of life. There was a wide variation or biological scatter in TEE values seen at all ages. We suggest that these centile charts may be used to assess and possibly quantify abnormal energy metabolism in disease states in infants.

Revis??o de pre??os por meio de indicadores de mercado e par??metros da licita????o

A metodologia de revis??o de pre??os dos contratos de fornecedores, com base em indicadores de mercado e em suporte informatizado, foi desenvolvida e est?? sendo aperfei??oada, de forma a garantir a manuten????o do equil??brio econ??mico-financeiro dos 330 contratos de servi??os de transporte de terceiros. Dessa forma, buscam-se maior agilidade nos processos e informa????es confi??veis, de forma a assegurar justa remunera????o para a execu????o dos servi??os com a qualidade necess??ria e a um menor custo

C??maras setoriais no Governo do Estado do Par??

O artigo apresenta o in??cio da implanta????o das c??maras setoriais no Governo do Estado do Par??, introduzindo um novo desenho para a gest??o das pol??ticas p??blicas no estado. A pesquisa foi realizada por meio de an??lise documental junto a diversas inst??ncias do governo paraense, tendo sido o autor participante da implanta????o e da coordena????o da C??mara Setorial de Gest??o at?? 2007. Primeiramente, faz-se uma an??lise sobre os novos modelos de gest??o p??blica no Brasil e a dissolu????o dos antigos padr??es. Em seguida, apresenta-se a proposta de c??maras setoriais, seus m??todos e conceitos, partindo para avan??os e desafios impostos pela implementa????o do novo modelo, conclui-se com uma an??lise sobre o futuro do modelo na gest??o p??blica estadual, bem como a aproxima????o com ferramentas contempor??neas da administra????o, interagindo com as diversas ??reas do governo estadual.

A constru????o da Lei de Acesso ?? Informa????o P??blica no Brasil: desafios na implementa????o de seus princ??pios

Nos ??ltimos anos, diversos pa??ses t??m feito grandes modifica????es em suas legisla????es, na tentativa de proteger o direito de acesso ?? informa????o e adequar sua legisla????o interna ??s exig??ncias impostas por tratados internacionais. A Lei de Acesso ?? Informa????o brasileira (Lei n?? 12.527, de 2011) foi constru??da a partir dos par??metros internacionalmente reconhecidos. Esses par??metros incorporam novos conceitos que ampliam o entendimento comum sobre o princ??pio da publicidade e recomendam a ado????o do princ??pio da m??xima transpar??ncia. A nova lei ?? essencial para melhorar as condi????es de acesso ??s informa????es governamentais no Brasil, como ser?? mostrado na an??lise feita da experi??ncia dos Estados Unidos da Am??rica e do M??xico. Contudo, devido a dificuldades relacionadas especialmente ?? burocracia administrativa, o direito de acesso ?? informa????o tender?? a permanecer incompleto, enquanto n??o for incorporado a uma pol??tica p??blica capaz de traduzir esse direito em um conjunto de a????es governamentais que garantam sua efetividade.

O Plano de Ações Articuladas (PAR) como instrumento de organização do Sistema Nacional de Educação: estudo de caso dos municípios de Cariacica e de Vitória/ES

O objeto de estudo da presente pesquisa é a análise do Plano de Ações Articuladas (PAR), criado pelo Governo Federal por meio do Plano de Metas Compromisso Todos pela Educação (Decreto n. 6.094/2007), e suas possibilidades como instrumento de organização do Sistema Nacional de Educação. A pesquisa tem como objetivo geral analisar o processo de implantação/implementação do PAR em dois municípios do Espírito Santo (Cariacica e Vitória), com o intuito de entender como se deu o planejamento do PAR em nível nacional e em nível municipal; analisar como foi elaborado, como está sendo executado e quais as principais ações do PAR desenvolvidas nos municípios pesquisados, identificando as articulações existentes entre os municípios, estados e União. O argumento central é que o PAR é um instrumento de planejamento central, mas cuja execução necessita de ações descentralizadas. Parte-se da hipótese de que a organização dos municípios, do ponto de vista econômico e político, tem implicações na execução de um planejamento educacional mesmo que ele tenha um mesmo formato e padrão para todo o país. Ou seja, as características políticas, econômicas e culturais dos municípios configuram diferentes realidades na execução das políticas educacionais, o que traz uma desigualdade na oferta da qualidade do serviço educacional entre os entes federativos. A pesquisa realizada é de caráter qualitativo do tipo estudo de caso, particularmente o estudo de multicascos que, segundo Triviños (1987), propicia ao pesquisador estudar dois ou mais sujeitos ou organizações sem a necessidade de limitar-se a fatores de natureza comparativa. Como problema de pesquisa, portanto, é levantada a seguinte pergunta: é possível o PAR, com sua característica de centralização/descentralização, contribuir para a organização do Sistema Nacional de Educação? A pesquisa mostrou que a implementação de uma política de educação, como o PAR, envolve a capacidade técnica, organizacional e aspectos institucionais dos municípios. Nesse sentido para a consolidação do Sistema Nacional de Educação é necessário que o PAR não seja apenas uma política de captação de recursos, mas que os municípios tenham um plano norteador como catalizador de uma política de Estado.