A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Chagas disease in Andean countries

The Andean Countries' Initiative (ACI) for controlling Chagas disease was officially created in 1997 within the framework of the Hipolito Unanue Agreement (UNANUE) between the Ministries of Health of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. Its objective was to interrupt transmission via vector and transfusion in the region, taking into account that there are 12.5 million people at risk in the four Andean countries forming the initiative in the area and around 3 million people are infected by Trypanosoma cruzi. The progress of control activities for the vector species present in the Andean sub-region, for different reasons, has been slow and control interventions have still not been installed in all geographical areas occupied by the target species. This has been partly due to lack of knowledge about these vector populations' biological characteristics, and consequent uncertainty about which are the appropriate control measures and strategies to be implemented in the region. The main vector species present important similarities in Venezuela and Colombia and in Ecuador and Northern Peru and they can be approached in a similar way throughout the whole regions, basing approaches on and adapting them to the current strategies being developed in Venezuela during the 1960s which have been progressively adopted in the Southern Cone and Central-American region. Additional measures are needed for keeping endemic areas free from Rhodnius prolixus silvatic populations, widely spread in the Orinoco region in Colombia and Venezuela. Regarding aetiological treatment, it is worth mentioning that (with the exception of Colombia) none of the other countries forming the ACI have registered medicaments available for treating infected young people. There are no suitable follow-up programmes in the sub-region or for treating cases of congenital Chagas disease. An integral and integrated programme encompassing all the aspects including transmission by transfusion which seems to have achieved extremely encouraging results in all countries, are urgently needed.

Current situation of Chagas disease in Central America

Chagas disease in Central America is known since 1913 when the first human case was reported in El Salvador. The other Central American countries reported their first cases between 1933 and 1967. On October 1997 was launched the Central American Initiative for Chagas Disease Control (IPCA). The objectives of this sub-regional Initiative are: (1) the elimination of Rhodnius prolixus in Central America; (2) the reduction of the domiciliary infestation of Triatoma dimidiata; and (3) the elimination of the transfusion transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi. Significant advancements being close to the elimination of R. prolixus in Central America and the control of the transfusion transmission has been a transcendent achievement for the sub-region. The main challenges that the IPCA will have in the close future are: developing effective strategies for control and surveillance of T. dimidiata; and surveillance of other emerging triatominae species like R. pallescens, T. nitida, and T. ryckmani.

Epidemiology of Chagas disease in non endemic countries: the role of international migration

Human infection with the protozoa Trypanosoma cruzi extends through North, Central, and South America, affecting 21 countries. Most human infections in the Western Hemisphere occur through contact with infected bloodsucking insects of the triatomine species. As T. cruzi can be detected in the blood of untreated infected individuals, decades after infection took place; the infection can be also transmitted through blood transfusion and organ transplant, which is considered the second most common mode of transmission for T. cruzi. The third mode of transmission is congenital infection. Economic hardship, political problems, or both, have spurred migration from Chagas endemic countries to developed countries. The main destination of this immigration is Australia, Canada, Spain, and the United States. In fact, human infection through blood or organ transplantation, as well as confirmed or potential cases of congenital infections has been described in Spain and in the United States. Estimates reported here indicates that in Australia in 2005-2006, 1067 of the 65,255 Latin American immigrants (16 per 1000) may be infected with T. cruzi, and in Canada, in 2001, 1218 of the 131,135 immigrants (9 per 1000) whose country of origin was identified may have been also infected. In Spain, a magnet for Latin American immigrants since the 2000, 5125 of 241,866 legal immigrants in 2003 (25 per 1000), could be infected. In the United States, 56,028 to 357,205 of the 7,20 million, legal immigrants (8 to 50 per 1000), depending on the scenario, from the period 1981-2005 may be infected with T. cruzi. On the other hand, 33,193 to 336,097 of the estimated 5,6 million undocumented immigrants in 2000 (6 to 59 per 1000) could be infected. Non endemic countries receiving immigrants from the endemic ones should develop policies to protect organ recipients from T. cruzi infection, prevent tainting the blood supply with T. cruzi, and implement secondary prevention of congenital Chagas disease.

Access to diagnosis and treatment of Chagas disease/infection in endemic and non-endemic countries in the XXI century

In this article, Médicos Sin Fronteras (MSF) Spain faces the challenge of selecting, piecing together, and conveying in the clearest possible way, the main lessons learnt over the course of the last seven years in the world of medical care for Chagas disease. More than two thousand children under the age of 14 have been treated; the majority of whom come from rural Latin American areas with difficult access. It is based on these lessons learnt, through mistakes and successes, that MSF advocates that medical care for patients with Chagas disease be a reality, in a manner which is inclusive (not exclusive), integrated (with medical, psychological, social, and educational components), and in which the patient is actively followed. This must be a multi-disease approach with permanent quality controls in place based on primary health care (PHC). Rapid diagnostic tests and new medications should be available, as well as therapeutic plans and patient management (including side effects) with standardised flows for medical care for patients within PHC in relation to secondary and tertiary level, inclusive of epidemiological surveillance systems.

The Formal Independence of Regulators: A Comparison of 17 Countries and 7 Sectors

This article seeks to explain the pattern of delegation to independent regulatory agencies in Western Europe. Two types of arguments are advanced to explain variations in the formal independence of regulators. Firstly, the need for governments to increase their credible commitment capacity may lead them to delegate regulation to an agency that is partly beyond their direct control. Secondly, delegation may be a response to the political uncertainty problem, which arises when governments are afraid of being replaced by another coalition with different preferences, which could decide to change existing policy choices. In addition, veto players may constitute a functional equivalent of delegation, since they influence policy stability and therefore tend to mitigate both the credibility and the political uncertainty problems. These arguments are consistent with the results of the empirical analysis of the formal independence of regulators in seventeen countries and seven sectors.

The Management of Patients on Oral Anticoagulation Undergoing Coronary Stent Implantation: A Survey among Interventional Cardiologists from Eight European Countries.

Purpose:  To evaluate the current management, and adherence to recommendations, of patients on oral anticoagulation (OAC) undergoing coronary stent implantation (PCI-S). Methods:  By means of a contact person who had been previously identified in 8 European countries, a questionnaire was electronically forwarded between April and July 2010 to the national institutions where PCI-S is performed. Results:  A total of  202 questionnaires (median response rate: 50%, range 33-78%) was received. The prevalence of OAC patients among those undergoing PCI-S is mostly reported 5-10% (97%). The peri-procedural pharmacological management mostly encompasses: preprocedural OAC interruption and bridging with low-molecular-weight heparin (59%), intraprocedural administration of an unfractionated heparin bolus (81%), and use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors on an individual basis (79%). The radial approach is reported as the preferred option (58%), as well as the implantation of bare metal stents (76%). Triple therapy (warfarin, aspirin, clopidogrel) is the most frequently prescribed (80%), generally for 1 month after bare metal stent (77%) and for at least 12 months after drug-eluting stent (60%). Throughout triple therapy, the International Normalized Ratio is mostly targeted to the lower end of the therapeutic range (77%), and gastric protection is routinely prescribed (69%), mostly by giving proton-pump inhibitors (70%). Conclusions:  Among the 202 interventional cardiologists from the 8 European countries interviewed, the management of patients on OAC undergoing PCI-S appears variable and only partially adherent to currently available recommendations. (J Interven Cardiol 2012;25:163-169).

Building Capacity in Developing Countries : OER for Food Safety

The Food Safety Knowledge Network (FSKN) was developed through the collaboration of Michigan State University and a professional network of international food industry retailers and manufacturers. The key objective of the FSKN project is to provide technical resources, in a cost effective way, in order to promote food safety in developing countries and for small and less developed companies. FSKN uses a competency based model including a framework, OERs, and assessments. These tools are being used to support face-to-face training, fully online training, and to gauge the learning outcomes of a series of pilot groups which were held in India, Egypt, and China.