Simulating Coxian Phase-type Distributions for Patient Survival

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that can be used to represent survival times in terms of phases through which an individual may progress until they eventually leave the system completely. Previous research has considered the Coxian phase-type distribution to be ideal in representing patient survival in hospital. However, problems exist in fitting the distributions. This paper investigates the problems that arise with the fitting process by simulating various Coxian phase-type models for the representation of patient survival and examining the estimated parameter values and eigenvalues obtained. The results indicate that numerical methods previously used for fitting the model parameters do not always converge. An alternative technique is therefore considered. All methods are influenced by the choice of initial parameter values. The investigation uses a data set of 1439 elderly patients and models their survival time, the length of time they spend in a UK hospital.

Chemosensory learning in the chicken embryo

Examined how exposure to a chemosensory stimulus prior to hatching affects subsequent chemosensory preferences of newly hatched chicks. The chicks' preferences were assessed at 2 days after hatching using an olfactory preference test (strawberry-smelling shavings vs water-coated shavings) and at 4 days after hatching using a gustatory preference test (strawberry-flavoured water vs unflavoured water). With no exposure to strawberry before hatching, strawberry was highly aversive to chicks after hatching. However, following exposure to strawberry before hatching, chicks expressed a greater preference for (or weaker aversion to) the strawberry stimulus. Chicks exposed to strawberry before hatching drank more strawberry-flavoured water and spent more time in a strawberry-scented area than chicks having no exposure before hatching. This change in preference was specific to the stimulus experienced before hatching and was present in the absence of any posthatching exposure to the stimulus. Results demonstrate that a chick's chemosensory preferences are changed as a result of experience with a stimulus before hatching and are suggestive of learning.

Embryo retrieval and kin recognition in an amphipod (Crustacea)

Active maternal care directed towards embryos within the brood pouch has been identified in amphipod crustaceans from harsh aquatic environments. This involves 'curl' and 'stretch' components and brood flushing that alters in distinct ways in response to developmental and environmental cues. However, a cost of active brood care in crustaceans is the susceptibility to embryo loss, this being further predisposed by the structure of the amphipod brood pouch. We found embryo retrieval by females of the rock-pool amphipod Apherusa jurinei, whereby females inserted experimentally offered embryos into their brood pouches. Females early in brood development retrieved embryos to a greater degree than both nonovigerous and later stage females. In this experiment, all offered embryos were from other females, indicating a motivation to retrieve embryos that often overrides any kin recognition. In a second experiment, we found kin discrimination, with both early stage and late stage females retrieving more of their own embryos than those from other females. Recognition was not simply of embryos of similar developmental stages. There were high levels of embryo cannibalism in both experiments, but females were significantly less likely to consume their own compared to foreign embryos. We thus further show that 'lower' crustaceans such as amphipods engage in elaborate active maternal care including kin recognition and discrimination. Their maternal behaviour appears to balance the costs and benefits of embryo retrieval, minimizing fitness reductions due to embryo loss and adoption of foreign embryos. (C) 2008 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solutes determine the temperature windows for microbial survival and growth

Microbial cells, and ultimately the Earth's biosphere, function within a narrow range of physicochemical conditions. For the majority of ecosystems, productivity is cold-limited, and it is microbes that represent the failure point. This study was carried out to determine if naturally occurring solutes can extend the temperature windows for activity of microorganisms. We found that substances known to disorder cellular macromolecules (chaotropes) did expand microbial growth windows, fungi preferentially accumulated chaotropic metabolites at low temperature, and chemical activities of solutes determined microbial survival at extremes of temperature as well as pressure. This information can enhance the precision of models used to predict if extraterrestrial and other hostile environments are able to support life; furthermore, chaotropes may be used to extend the growth windows for key microbes, such as saprotrophs, in cold ecosystems and manmade biomes.

Assessment of the benefits of Discrete Conditional Survival Models in modelling ambulance response times

Many of the challenges faced in health care delivery can be informed through building models. In particular, Discrete Conditional Survival (DCS) models, recently under development, can provide policymakers with a flexible tool to assess time-to-event data. The DCS model is capable of modelling the survival curve based on various underlying distribution types and is capable of clustering or grouping observations (based on other covariate information) external to the distribution fits. The flexibility of the model comes through the choice of data mining techniques that are available in ascertaining the different subsets and also in the choice of distribution types available in modelling these informed subsets. This paper presents an illustrated example of the Discrete Conditional Survival model being deployed to represent ambulance response-times by a fully parameterised model. This model is contrasted against use of a parametric accelerated failure-time model, illustrating the strength and usefulness of Discrete Conditional Survival models.

Shore exposure affects mussel population structure and mediates the effect of epibiotic algae on mussel survival in SW Ireland

On rocky shores, the relative importance of abiotic and biotic processes that regulate community structure are thought to vary with levels of shore exposure. This can lead to characteristic features found on sheltered and exposed shores. This study identified differences in the population structure of mussels on exposed and sheltered rocky shores on Atlantic coasts of south-west Ireland. Direct interactions between epibiotic algae and their host mussels were also examined to test if potential effects varied with shore exposure. Mussel beds on sheltered shores were less dense and comprised larger mussels with greater rates of individual survival and growth than those on exposed shores. The results of a field experiment showed that algal epibionts had a negative effect on mussel survival on sheltered shores but not on exposed shores. Surprisingly, the presence of algal epibionts had no effect on mussel growth on either shore type. These findings contrast with those of previous studies. The effects of shore exposure and algal epibionts on Mussels may be species-specific and may interact with other factors across different regions. This study shows that predictions of effects of exposure on mussel populations and their epibionts should only be based on specific experimental evidence and cannot be generalised across regions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulated predator extinctions: Predator identity affects survival and recruitment of oysters

The rate of species loss is increasing at a global scale, and human-induced extinctions are biased toward predator species. We examined the effects of predator extinctions on a foundation species, the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica). We performed a factorial experiment manipulating the presence and abundance of three of the most common predatory crabs, the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), stone crab (Menippe mercenaria), and mud crab (Panopeus herbstii) in estuaries in the eastern United States. We tested the effects of species richness and identity of predators on juvenile oyster survival, oyster recruitment, and organic matter content of sediment. We also manipulated the density of each of the predators and controlled for the loss of biomass of species by maintaining a constant mass of predators in one set of treatments and simultaneously using an additive design. This design allowed us to test the density dependence of our results and test for functional compensation by other species. The identity of predator species, but not richness, affected oyster populations. The loss of blue crabs, alone or in combination with either of the other species, affected the survival rate of juvenile oysters. Blue crabs and stone crabs both affected oyster recruitment and sediment organic matter negatively. Mud crabs at higher than ambient densities, however, could fulfill some of the functions of blue and stone crabs, suggesting a level of ecological redundancy. Importantly, the strong effects of blue crabs in all processes measured no longer occurred when individuals were present at higher-than-ambient densities. Their role as dominant predator is, therefore, dependent on their density within the system and the density of other species within their guild (e.g., mud crabs). Our findings support the hypothesis that the effects of species loss at higher trophic levels are determined by predator identity and are subject to complex intraguild interactions that are largely density dependent. Understanding the role of biodiversity in ecosystem functioning or addressing practical concerns, such as loss of predators owing to overharvesting, remains complicated because accurate predictions require detailed knowledge of the system and should be drawn from sound experimental evidence, not based on observations or generalized models.

Effects of epibiotic algae on the survival, biomass and recruitment of mussels, Mytilus L. (Bivalvia : Mollusca)

Habitats composed of living 'ecosystem engineers', such as mussels, are subject to direct and indirect interactions with organisms that live among them. These interactions may affect the presence and structure of habitat, and hence, the associated taxa. We examined the direct effects of epibiotic algae on the Survival, biomass and recruitment of mussels (Mytilits L.) on the west coast of Ireland. A field experiment showed that the presence of epibiotic fucoid algae reduced the likelihood of survival of mussels during storms. We also found that the strength of attachment of mussels did not increase in the presence of epibionts. Another in situ experiment revealed that the presence of ephemeral epibiotic algal mats had no effect on the biomass of host mussels, suggesting no effect on mussel growth or production. The abundance of small mussels (

Increased repair and cell survival in cells treated with DIR1 antisense oligonucleotides: implications for induced radioresistance

Purpose: To determine whether repression of a recently isolated, X-ray-responsive gene, DIR1, using antisense oligonucleotides could affect clonogenic cell survival and repair of DNA strand breaks and have a possible role in the mechanism underlying the phenomenon of 'induced radioresistance' (IRR).