Pittsburgh -- Atlantic

Shows also part of Delaware.

Mexico

[drawn by Erwin Raisz].

England

[drawn by Erwin Raisz].

Adriatic -- Baltic

Cross section of a part of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula, from Kaliningrad in the north to Dubrovnik in the south.

Tibet -- C. Asia

Cross section of the area in Asia starting with Chittagong and Dhaka in the south to Stalinsk [Novokuznetsk, Sakha (Russian Federation)] in the north.

China N-S

[drawn by Erwin Raisz].

S. Africa

[drawn by Erwin Raisz].

Déjà-vu (again): The Lisbon Treaty Referendum in Ireland. IHS Political Science Series No. 133, February 2013

There has been an increasing use of direct democracy in the form of referendums on aspects of European integration. Two such referendums have been held in Ireland in 2008 and 2009 with the outcome changing from a No to a Yes vote. This paper addresses the question of what explains the change in outcome in two referendums on essentially the same document. It will do so by looking at the role of the campaign in providing information and hence reducing uncertainty, the importance of issue frames and the impact of domestic considerations on vote choice. It is suggested that there has not been a change in underlying attitudes but a change in how the Irish electorate weighed the same factors differently at both referendums. In addition, a change in economic conditions at the time of the second referendum also had an effect on how voters decided the second time around.

Can the eurozone survive? Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 12, No. 4, May 2012

From the Introduction. As financial and economic turmoil continues to rock the Eurozone nations and even threatens to undermine the political stability in the region, it may be helpful to recall the circumstances that helped bring about the formation of the European Union and the common currency of the Eurozone. While issues of trade, finance, and economics were at the heart of many of the agreements upon which the European Union was founded, there were larger issues about a shared future for Europeans that went beyond fiscal concerns. As the economic conditions in Europe and the rest of the world appear to have brought the Eurozone to the brink of collapse, the question at hand is whether the strength of the euro and the economies of the Eurozone nations will be able to withstand the forces that threaten not just the economic ties among the nations of the Eurozone and the EU, but that also strain the historical, cultural, and political foundations on which those economic ties were forged.

Does ASEM work? CEPS Policy Brief No. 321, 14 October 2014

This CEPS Policy Brief is based on a larger study for the EEAS and European Commission, written by the same authors in the run-up of the Milan ASEM summit of 16-17 October 2014. The main idea of the study is to assess whether ASEM works and how, by verifying the factual evidence in detail. After all, ASEM has no institutions, no budget and no treaty, whilst dialogues and a loose improvement over time in Asia-Europe relations refer to process much more than genuine ‘results’. The stocktaking covers all ASEM activities since the 2006 Helsinki summit. Summit and foreign ministers’ declarations and ASEM calendar of activities (and interviews) are used to trace ASEM activities in the three ASEM pillars (political, economic, and peoples-to-peoples/cultural). All the ‘regular’ ASEM meetings at ministerial and other levels (many of which are only known to relatively few) have been mapped. Also the ASEM working methods, based on the 2000 AECF framework and many subsequent initiatives, have been scrutinised, including whether they are actually implemented or not or partially. Such methods refer to how to work together in areas of cooperation (beyond the typical ASEM dialogue), organisation, coordination and ASEM visibility. The main conclusion is that ASEM works reasonably well, once one accepts the ASEM of today, although some inefficiencies still characterise the ‘system’. There is a host of secondary conclusions on the three pillars, the foreign ministers, the strong government-to-government nature of ASEM and the working methods. We recommend that today’s ASEM needs no reform and that not having ASEM would entail political and diplomatic costs. We emphasise that ASEM is well placed to stimulate exchange of information between the mega-FTAs such as TPP, RCEP and TTIP. However, the ASEM of tomorrow might be different, given the great changes in geo-political and economic conditions since ASEM began in the mid-1990s. Moreover, the size of ASEM has become such that classical ways of operating with (after Milano) 53 countries (including the EU and ASEAN) cannot possibly be effective all the time. We suggest that, in the run-up to the 20th ASEM birthday (2016), EU and Asian independent think-tanks get together to write an ‘options report’ reconsidering options for a new ASEM, as the basis for a profound and wide debate how to get more value-added out of ASEM.

Russia in Crisis: Year One. OSW Report, January 2010

Economic conditions which had favoured Russia’s development suddenly changed in mid-2008. The Russian economy was hit, on the one hand, by a drastic slump in oil prices (which fell from nearly US$150 to US$50 between July 2008 and January 2009), and on the other by the outflow of investors (a net of US$130 billion of capital left Russia in the fourth quarter of 2008). Within several months, the financial crisis became an economic crisis affecting the entire economy. The financial reserves accumulated in times of prosperity (more than US$162 billion in the stabilisation funds and nearly US$598 billion in the currency and gold reserve) alleviated the negative impact of the crisis, although this failed to prevent the deep declines in macroeconomic indicators. Russia is one of the states most severely affected by the crisis. In the first half of 2009, its GDP fell by 10.4% compared to the same period in the previous year, while industrial production dropped by nearly 15%, and a decrease in investments of over 18% was reported. The poor economic performance has strongly affected the Russian budget, which reported a deficit for the first time in ten years in 2009. During the first year of the crisis (August 2008 – September 2009), Russia’s financial reserves were seriously reduced as a result of the government’s anti-crisis policy and interventions from the central bank: the reserve fund decreased by nearly 45% to US$76 billion, and the central bank’s reserves shrunk by nearly US$200 billion to US$409 billion. Meanwhile, however, the money in the National Welfare Fund, which had been intended almost entirely to subsidise the Pensions Fund between 2010 and 2015, rose almost three-fold (to US$90 billion). According to government forecasts, the money from the reserve fund is also supposed to be spent fully in 2010. The financial crisis has triggered a dynamic outflow of capital from the Russian market. So-called speculative capital was the first to demonstrate the lack of confidence in the Russian market. In the first half of 2009, the growth rate of long-term investments also decreased noticeably, although no spectacular withdrawal of direct investments from Russia has been observed. The economic crisis has also halted the foreign expansion of Russian private capital, while state-owned capital strengthened its position as an investor. Russia’s raw materials companies continue to be the main category of foreign investors; however, new technologies are gaining prominence as the second main direction of Russian investments.

Saving the Banks: The Political Economy of Bailouts. CES Papers - Open Forum #8, 2012

How much leeway did governments have in designing bank bailouts and deciding on the height of intervention during the 2007-2009 financial crisis? This paper analyzes comparatively what explains government responses to banking crises. Why does the type of intervention during financial crises vary to such a great extent across countries? By analyzing the variety of bailouts in Europe and North America, we will show that the strategies governments use to cope with the instability of financial markets does not depend on economic conditions alone. Rather, they take root in the institutional and political setting of each country and vary in particular according to the different types of business-government relations banks were able to entertain with public decision-makers. Still, “crony capitalism” accounts overstate the role of bank lobbying. With four case studies of the Irish, Danish, British and French bank bailout, we show that countries with close one-on-one relationships between policy-makers and bank management tended to develop unbalanced bailout packages, while countries where banks have strong interbank ties and collective negotiation capacity were able to develop solutions with a greater burden sharing from private institutions.

Is there a need for additional monetary stimulus? Insights from the original Taylor Rule. CEPS Policy Brief No. 342, April 2016

Central banks in the developed world are being misled into fighting the perceived dangers of a ‘deflationary spiral’ because they are looking at only one indicator: consumer prices. This Policy Brief finds that while consumer prices are flat, broader price indices do not show any sign of impending deflation: the GDP deflator is increasing in the US, Japan and the euro area by about 1.2-1.5%. Nor is the real economy sending any deflationary signals either: unemployment is at record lows in the US and Japan, and is declining in the euro area while GDP growth is at, or above potential. Thus, the overall macroeconomic situation does not give any indication of an imminent deflationary spiral. In today’s high-debt environment, the authors argue that central banks should be looking at the GDP deflator and the growth of nominal GDP, instead of CPI inflation. Nominal GDP growth, as forecasted by the major official institutions, remains robust and is in excess of nominal interest rates. They conclude that if the ECB were to set the interest rate according to the standard rules of thumb for monetary policy, which take into account both the real economy and price developments of broader price indicators, it would start normalising its policy now, instead of pondering over additional measures to fight deflation, which does not exist. In short, economic conditions are slowly normalising; so should monetary policy.

Punishing Local Incumbents for the Local Economy

After decennia of research on economic voting, it is now established that the state of the economy affects voting behaviour. Nevertheless, this conclusion is the result of a focus on predominantly national-level economies and national-level elections. In this paper, we show that at a local level as well, mechanisms of accountability linked to the economy are at work. The local economic context affected voting behaviour in the 2012 Belgian municipal elections, with a stronger increase of unemployment rates in their municipality significantly decreasing the probability that voters choose an incumbent party. Additionally, we observe that voters are not opportunistically voting for incumbents who lower tax rates. Instead, voters seem to be holding local incumbents accountable for local economic conditions. We hence conclude that voters care about economic outcomes, not about what specific policies are implemented to reach these outcomes.

¿Qué se entiende por fútbol infantil? Críticas al modelo de enseñanza

Esta investigación está basada en el funcionamiento de las ligas de Fútbol Infantil en la ciudad de La Plata, con niños de edades comprendidas entre los 6 a 12 años, entendiendo al Fútbol Infantil como un deporte de ligas altamente competitivas sin tener en cuenta los intereses de los niños en función de la edad, o los contextos políticos y socioeconómicos en los cuales esos niños se desarrollan. El principal punto de observación fue conocer cómo se comportan los chicos en distintas situaciones que se plantean; realizarle críticas a ese Fútbol Infantil, tratando de explicar también lo que se entiende como fútbol dentro de la escuela. Para desarrollar este trabajo decidimos realizar observaciones en distintos clubes de las ligas de Fútbol Infantil de la ciudad de La Plata. Las mismas fueron realizadas durante el año 2013 para el Eje Fútbol de la materia Educación Física 2, correspondiente al segundo año del Profesorado Universitario en Educación Física de la Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educación de la Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Luego utilizamos esas observaciones como insumo para el Trabajo Final de Promoción de la materia Educación Física 2. Del análisis de las observaciones realizadas tomamos para su desarrollo los siguientes aspectos: 1) relación entre el sujeto, sus compañeros, entrenadores y público; 2) aspectos psicológicos de los niños (dentro de un partido de Fútbol Infantil); 3) relación de los niños con los elementos del juego; 4) relación con las reglas. Nuestra investigación es de carácter cualitativo ya que decidimos darle un enfoque en el que se puedan describir las características y la particularidad que tienen las ligas infantiles de fútbol en la ciudad de La Plata 1 . La recolección de datos se realizó en distintos clubes pertenecientes a las ligas 2 . Hicimos distintas observaciones y encuestas a los padres y dirigentes. Además, se tuvieron en cuenta para el análisis las referencias bibliográficas obligatorias de la cátedra, a sugerencia de los docentes. Este tema obtuvo nuestra atención ya que consideramos que el funcionamiento de las ligas no parece ser el adecuado. Por ende el propósito de nuestro trabajo es demostrar esta afirmación por medio de diferentes situaciones que surgieron en las observaciones. También se observó que los adultos tratan como profesionales a los niños, deseando que sus hijos ganen a cualquier costo. Teniendo en cuenta lo planteado anteriormente, entenderíamos a la escuela como uno de los sitios principales donde se pueden practicar varios deportes, entre ellos el fútbol, ya que es masiva la concurrencia de niños de diferentes condiciones socioeconómicas. Una de las críticas que le podríamos dar a esta institución es que no se enseña este deporte ya que se da por sobreentendido que puede ser aprendido en diferentes espacios (plazas, clubes, colonias, etc.) debido a su popularidad y atracción. En el caso de la escuela, la enseñanza está a cargo de profesionales que tienen en cuenta el contexto económico, social y cultural de cada niño; a diferencia de un mero entrenador no profesional que, a pesar de sus conocimientos sobre el deporte, no tiene en cuenta las cuestiones antes mencionadas, que a nuestro entender son de vital importancia. Estas son las cuestiones que se observan según nuestro estudio en las ligas y con las cuales disentimos. Para finalizar consideramos que otros ítems podrían ser desarrollados pero son objeto de investigaciones futuras o de otras disciplinas, como por ejemplo la relación entre padres y niños al tratar que los mismos lleguen a ser profesionales cuando en realidad todavía se encuentran en una etapa de desarrollo, o por qué existe el prejuicio de que lo popular no necesita estudio o preparación dentro de la escuela