Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow’s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow’s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.

The risk of water stress

Water resources are under stress in many regions due to increasing demands and, in places, falling quality. Climate change has the potential to change the risks of water stress.1 The focus in this section is on strategic definitions of water stress, which are based on generalized indicators of the amount of water that is available and the demands on that resource. Operational definitions, on the other hand, are typically based on the reliability of the supply of appropriate quality water and are strongly determined by local conditions.

The risk of river flooding

This section of the report outlines the effect of different levels of climate change on exposure to river flood risk, at national and watershed scales.

The risk of drought

This section of the report summarises the effect of different levels of climate change on risk of drought.

Risk of Giardia infection for drinking water and bathing in a peri-urban area in Sao Paulo, Brazil

A high incidence of waterborne diseases is observed worldwide and in order to address contamination problems prior to an outbreak, quantitative microbial risk assessment is a useful tool for estimating the risk of infection. The objective of this paper was to assess the probability of Giardia infection from consuming water from shallow wells in a peri-urban area. Giardia has been described as an important waterborne pathogen and reported in several water sources, including ground waters. Sixteen water samples were collected and examined according to the US EPA (1623, 2005). A Monte Carlo method was used to address the potential risk as described by the exponential dose response model. Giardia cysts occurred in 62.5% of the samples (0.1-36.1 cysts/l). A median risk of 10-1 for the population was estimated and the adult ingestion was the highest risk driver. This study illustrates the vulnerability of shallow well water supply systems in peri-urban areas.

Re-framing risk transfer to assess integrative partnership opportunities: the S.A.R. approach and the AIG/BID/CNO regional surety bond facility of 2007

Identificar, compartilhar e gerenciar os riscos de contratar são preocupações que impedem o estabelicmento e a administração das Parcerias Públicos Particulares (PPP). Porem, gerentes das entidades públicas, bancos de formento, construtoras e seguradoras pesquisam e utilizam muitas técnicas para enfrentar a avaliação e gerenciamento dos riscos. A transferência de risco é uma indicação dos chamados benefícios que são inspirados pelos PPP, contudo devido às realidades contratuais e conceptuais, a entidade de cede o risco (o partido público) permanece quase sempre como o portador final do risco. Conseqüentemente, o partido público retem um interesse de resistência na gerência total destes riscos cedidos. Esta dissertação explora alguns defeitos das aproximações comuns a conceituar a gestão de risco no contexto de um PPP. Focalizando os conceitos da interdependência e da reciprocidade e usando na decisão para transferir o risco do projeto, esta dissertação molda a decisão para transferir o risco nos termos das realidades interdependentes de relacionamentos sistemáticos, alargam os conceitos técnicos do risco e da avaliação de risco, considerando o uso reflexivo das diferenças na analise de um estudo de caso. O autor explora estes conceitos em uma análise da decisão de um gerente de risco da empresa de construção civil brasileira Construtora Norberto Odebrecht (ODB) para projetar uma facilidade inovadora da ligação de garantia com Inter-American Development Bank (BID) e uma seguradora, American International Group (AIG), um negócio que ganhe o reconhecimento Trade Finance Magazine’s 2007 deal of the year. O autor mostra que por compreender a transferência de risco nos termos abordados nesta dissertação, um atore que transfere o risco pode identificar e criar mais oportunidades de estabelecer relacionamentos em longo prazo, através dos processos que a literatura atual do PPP ainda não considere. Os resultados devem fornecer contribuições para a pesquisas sobre a transferência do risco do projeto, na cooperação entre organizações e na seleção do sócio do projeto do potencial.

A simple approach to integrate the ecotoxicological and chemical data for the establishment of environmental risk levels

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação de impacto ambiental e gestão dos recursos natuarias no estuário Apodi Mossoró, nordeste do Brasil

The aim of this study is to investigate the eco-environmental vulnerability, its changes, and its causes to develop a management system for application of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment in the Apodi-Mossory estuary, Northeast Brazil. This analysis is focused on the interference of the landscape conditions, and its changes, due to the following factors: the oil and natural gas industry, tropical fruits industry, shrimp farms, marine salt industry, occupation of the sensitive areas; demand for land, vegetation degradation, siltation in rivers, severe flooding, sea level rise (SLR), coastal dynamics, low and flat topography, high ecological value and tourism in the region and the rapid growth of urbanization. Conventional and remote sensing data were analyzed using modeling techniques based on ArcGIS, ER-Mapper, ERDAS Imagine and ENVI software. Digital images were initially processed by Principal Component Analysis and transformation of the maximum fraction of noise, and then all bands were normalized to reduce errors caused by bands of different sizes. They were integrated in a Geographic Information System analysis to detect changes, to generate digital elevation models, geomorphic indices and other variables of the study area. A three band color combination of multispectral bands was used to monitor changes of land and vegetation cover from 1986 to 2009. This task also included the analysis of various secondary data, such as field data, socioeconomic data, environmental data and prospects growth. The main objective of this study was to improve our understanding of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment; it´s causes basically show the intensity, its distribution and human-environment effect on the ecosystem, and identify the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR, and the loss of land due to coastal erosion in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary in order to establish a strategy for sustainable land use. The developed model includes some basic factors such as geology, geomorphology, soils, land use / land cover, vegetation cover, slope, topography and hydrology. The numerical results indicate that 9.86% of total study area was under very high vulnerability, 29.12% high vulnerability, 52.90% moderate vulnerability and 2.23% were in the category of very low vulnerability. The analysis indicates that 216.1 km² and 362.8 km² area flooded on 1m and 10m in sea levels respectively. The sectors most affected were residential, industrial and recreational areas, agricultural land, and ecosystems of high environmental sensitivity. The results showed that changes in eco-environmental vulnerability have a significant impact on the sustainable development of the RN state, since the indicator is a function of sensitivity, exposure and status in relation to a level of damage. The model were presented as a tool to assist in indexing vulnerability in order to optimize actions and assess the implications of decisions makers and policies regarding the management of coastal and estuarine areas. In this context aspects such as population growth, degradation of vegetation, land use / land cover, amount and type of industrialization, SLR and government policies for environmental protection were considered the main factors that affect the eco-environmental changes over the last three decades in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary.

Assessment of genetic damage induced by dental bleaching agents on mouse lymphoma cells by single cell gel (comet) assay

Dental bleaching is a simple and conservative procedure for aesthetic restoration of vital discoloured teeth. However, dental bleaching agents may represent a hazard to human health, especially by causing DNA strand breaks. Genotoxicity tests form an important part of cancer research and risk assessment of potential carcinogens. In the current study, the genotoxic potential associated with exposure to dental bleaching agents was assessed by the single cell gel (comet) assay in vitro. Six commercial dental bleaching agents (Clarigel Gold - Dentsply; Whitespeed - Discus Dental; Nite White - Discus Dental; Magic Bleaching - Vigodent; Whiteness HP - FGM and Lase Peroxide - DMC) were exposed to mouse lymphoma cells in vitro. The results pointed out that all dental bleaching agents tested contributed to the DNA damage as depicted by the mean tail moment. Clear concentration-related effects were obtained for DNA damaging, being the strongest effect observed at the highest dose of the hydrogen peroxide (Whiteness HP and Lase Peroxide, at 35% concentration). on the contrary, Whitespeed (Discus Dental) induced the lowest level of DNA breakage. Taken together, these results suggest that dental bleaching agents may be a factor that increases the level of DNA damage as detected by the single cell gel (comet) assay.

Pancreatic β-cell defects in women at risk of type 2 diabetes

We evaluated insulin release and insulin sensitivity in women with basal and/or postprandial hyperglycemia but normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in previous pregnancy (GHG). These women were individually matched with females without previous hyperglycemia (NGT). Both groups consisted of normal glucose-tolerant women at the time of this study. They underwent OGTT (75g; n= 32 pairs) and hyperglycemic clamp experiments (10mmoll-1; n=27 pairs) with plasma glucose, insulin, and C-peptide measurements and calculation of insulinogenic index, first- and second-phase insulin release, and insulin sensitivity index (ISI). The GHG group showed higher glycosylated hemoglobin levels (6.2±0.6% versus 5.8±0.8%; P<0.05); lower insulinogenic index at 30min (134.03±62.69pmolmmol-1 versus 181.59±70.26pmolmmoll-1; P<0.05) and diminished C-peptide response in relation to glucose (4.05±0.36nmolmmol-1 versus 4.23±0.36nmolmmol-1; P<0.05) at OGTT. Both groups did not show difference in insulin secretion and ISI by hyperglycemic clamp technique. We concluded that in up to 12 years from index pregnancy, women with previous GHG, presenting normal glucose tolerance and well-matched with their controls, showed β-cell dysfunction without change in ISI. As women with previous GHG are at risk of type 2 diabetes, β-cell dysfunction may be its primary defect. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polymorphisms of DNA repair genes XRCC1 and XRCC3, interaction with environmental exposure and risk of chronic gastritis and grastic cancer

Aim: To evaluate the association between polymorphisms XRCC1 Arg194Trp and Arg399Gln and XRCC3 Thr241Met and the risk for chronic gastritis and gastric cancer, in a Southeastern Brazilian population. Methods: Genotyping by PCR-RFLP was carried out on 202 patients with chronic gastritis (CG) and 160 patients with gastric cancer (GC), matched to 202 (C1) and 150 (C2) controls, respectively. Results: No differences were observed among the studied groups with regard to the genotype distribution of XRCC1 codons 194 and 399 and of XRCC3 codon 241. However, the combined analyses of the three variant alleles (194Trp, 399Gln and 241Met) showed an increased risk for chronic gastritis when compared to the GC group. Moreover, an interaction between the polymorphic alleles and demographic and environmental factors was observed in the CG and GC groups. XRCC1 194Trp was associated with smoking in the CG group, while the variant alleles XRCC1 399Gln and XRCC3 241Met were related with gender, smoking, drinking and H pylori infection in the CG and GC groups. Conclusion: Our results showed no evidence of a rela-tionship between the polymorphisms XRCC1 Arg194Trp and Arg399Gln and XRCC3 Thr241Met and the risk of chronic gastritis and gastric cancer in the Brazilian population, but the combined effect of these variants may interact to increase the risk for chronic gastritis, considered a premalignant lesion. Our data also indicate a gene-environment interaction in the susceptibility to chronic gastritis and gastric cancer. © 2005 The WJG Press and Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Influence of lower cutoff values for 100-g oral glucose tolerance test and glycemic profile for identification of pregnant women at excessive fetal growth risk

Objective: To evaluate data from patients with normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) results and a normal or impaired glycemic profile (GP) to determine whether lower cutoff values for the OGTT and GP (alone or combined) could identify pregnant women at risk for excessive fetal growth. Methods: We classified 701 pregnant women with positive screening for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) into 2 categories - (1) normal 100-g OGTT and normal GP and (2) normal 100-g OGTT and impaired GP - to evaluate the influence of lower cutoff points in a 100-g OGTT and GP (alone or in combination) for identification of pregnant women at excessive fetal growth risk. The OGTT is considered impaired if 2 or more values are above the normal range, and the GP is impaired if the fasting glucose level or at least 1 postprandial glucose value is above the normal range. To establish the criteria for the OGTT (for fasting and 1, 2, and 3 hours after an oral glucose load, respectively), we considered the mean (75 mg/dL, 120 mg/dL, 113 mg/dL, and 97 mg/dL), mean plus 1 SD (85 mg/dL, 151 mg/dL, 133 mg/dL, and 118 mg/dL), and mean plus 2 SD (95 mg/dL, 182 mg/dL, 153 mg/dL, and 139 mg/dL); and for the GP, we considered the mean and mean plus 1 SD (78 mg/dL and 92 mg/dL for fasting glucose levels and 90 mg/dL and 130 mg/dL for 1- or 2-hour postprandial glucose levels, respectively). Results: Subsequently, the women were reclassified according to the new cutoff points for both tests (OGTT and GP). Consideration of values, in isolation or combination, yielded 6 new diagnostic criteria. Excessive fetal growth was the response variable for analysis of the new cutoff points. Odds ratios and their respective confidence intervals were estimated, as were the sensitivity and specificity related to diagnosis of excessive fetal growth for each criterion. The new cutoff points for the tests, when used independently rather than collectively, did not help to predict excessive fetal growth in the presence of mild hyperglycemia. Conclusion: Decreasing the cutoff point for the 100-g OGTT (for fasting and 1, 2, and 3 hours) to the mean (75 mg/dL, 120 mg/dL, 113 mg/dL, and 97 mg/dL) in association with the GP (mean or mean plus 1 SD-78 mg/dL and 92 mg/dL for the fasting state and 90 mg/dL and 130 mg/dL for 1- or 2-hour postprandial values-increased the sensitivity and specificity, and both criteria had statistically significant predictive power for detection of excessive fetal growth. © 2008 AACE.

Mapping hazard risk: A case study of Ubatuba, Brazil

Steep slopes in subtropical zones are always at risk from landslides. The risk greatly increases when there is rapid, unplanned urban growth. This has happened at Ubatuba on the Brazilian coast - tourism-related development has forced local people into narrow valleys with steep slopes. In this article the authors describe how the hazard risk can be mapped, helping the local authorities to control the problem.