780 resultados para DCC-GARCH


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The synthesis of the monomeric building block 13 and its constitutional isomer 12 of a new type of DNA analog, distamycin-NA, is presented (Schemes 1 and 2). This building block consists of a uracil base attached to a thiophene core unit via a biaryl-like axis. Next to the biaryl-like axis on the thiophene chromophore, a carboxy and an amino substituent are located allowing for oligomerization via peptide coupling. The proof of constitution and the conformational preferences about the biaryl-like axis were established by means of X-ray analyses of the corresponding nitro derivatives 10 and 11. Thus, the uracil bases are propeller-twisted relative to the thiophene core, and bidentate H-bonds occur between two uracil bases in the crystals. The two amino-acid building blocks 12 and 13 were coupled to give the dimers 15 and 16 using dicyclohexylcarbodiimide (DCC) in THF/LiCl and DMF, respectively. While the dimer 15 showed no atropisomerism on the NMR time scale at room temperature, its isomer 16 occurred as distinct diastereoisomers due to the hindered rotation around its biaryl-like axis. Variable-temperature 1H-NMR experiments allowed to determine a rotational barrier of 19 ± 1 kcal/mol in 16. The experimental data were complemented by AM1 calculations.

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10.1002/hlca.19980810512.abs The synthesis of the Fmoc-protected amino acid 2 is presented. First attempts of amide-bond formation to the homodimer 4 in solution showed only poor coupling yields indicative for the low reactivity of the amino and carboxy groups in the building blocks 1 and 2, respectively (Scheme 1). Best coupling yields were found using dicyclohexylcarbodiimide (DCC) without any additive. The oligomerization of building block 2 adopting the Fmoc ((9H-fluoren-9-ylmethoxy)carbonyl) solid-phase synthesis yielded a mixture of N-terminal-modified distamycin-NA derivatives. By combined HPLC and MALDI-TOF-MS analysis, the N-terminal functional groups could be identified as acetamide and N,N-dimethylformamidine functions, arising from coupling of the N-terminus of the growing chain with residual AcOH or DCC-activated solvent DMF. An improved preparation of building block 2 and coupling protocol led to the prevention of the N-terminal acetylation. However, ‘amidination’ could not be circumvented. A thus isolated tetramer of 2, containing a lysine unit at the C-terminus and a N,N-dimethylformamidine-modified N-terminus, not unexpectedly, showed no complementary base pairing to DNA and RNA, as determined by standard UV-melting-curve analysis.

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The adjustment of X-linked gene expression to the X chromosome copy number (dosage compensation [DC]) has been widely studied as a model of chromosome-wide gene regulation. In Caenorhabditis elegans, DC is achieved by twofold down-regulation of gene expression from both Xs in hermaphrodites. We show that in males, the single X chromosome interacts with nuclear pore proteins, while in hermaphrodites, the DC complex (DCC) impairs this interaction and alters X localization. Our results put forward a structural model of DC in which X-specific sequences locate the X chromosome in transcriptionally active domains in males, while the DCC prevents this in hermaphrodites.

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This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

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Previous studies (e.g., Hamori, 2000; Ho and Tsui, 2003; Fountas et al., 2004) find high volatility persistence of economic growth rates using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications. This paper reexamines the Japanese case, using the same approach and showing that this finding of high volatility persistence reflects the Great Moderation, which features a sharp decline in the variance as well as two falls in the mean of the growth rates identified by Bai and Perronâs (1998, 2003) multiple structural change test. Our empirical results provide new evidence. First, excess kurtosis drops substantially or disappears in the GARCH or exponential GARCH model that corrects for an additive outlier. Second, using the outlier-corrected data, the integrated GARCH effect or high volatility persistence remains in the specification once we introduce intercept-shift dummies into the mean equation. Third, the time-varying variance falls sharply, only when we incorporate the break in the variance equation. Fourth, the ARCH in mean model finds no effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth or of output growth on its volatility.

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The effects of exchange rate risk have interested researchers, since the collapse of fixed exchange rates. Little consensus exists, however, regarding its effect on exports. Previous studies implicitly assume symmetry. This paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH(1,1)-M model. The asymmetry means that exchange rate risk (volatility) affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations of the exchange rate. The data include bilateral exports from eight Asian countries to the US. The empirical results show that real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries, negative or positive, in periods of depreciation or appreciation. For five of the eight countries, the effects of exchange risk are asymmetric. Thus, policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of stimulating export growth.

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The current international integration of financial markets provides a channel for currency depreciation to affect stock prices. Moreover, the recent financial crisis in Asia with its accompanying exchange rate volatility affords a case study to examine that channel. This paper applies a bivariate GARCH-M model of the reduced form of stock market returns to investigate empirically the effects of daily currency depreciation on stock market returns for five newly emerging East Asian stock markets during the Asian financial crisis. The evidence shows that the conditional variances of stock market returns and depreciation rates exhibit time-varying characteristics for all countries. Domestic currency depreciation and its uncertainty adversely affects stock market returns across countries. The significant effects of foreign exchange market events on stock market returns suggest that international fund managers who invest in the newly emerging East Asian stock markets must evaluate the value and stability of the domestic currency as a part of their stock market investment decisions.

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This paper tests the presence of balance sheets effects and analyzes the implications for exchange rate policies in emerging markets. The results reveal that the emerging market bond index (EMBI) is negatively related to the banks' foreign currency leverage, and that these banks' foreign currency exposures are relatively unhedged. Panel SVAR methods using EMBI instead of advanced country lending rates find, contrary to the literature, that the amplitude of output responses to foreign interest rate shocks are smaller under relatively fixed regimes. The findings are robust to the local projections method of obtaining impulse responses, using country specific and GARCH-SVAR models.

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This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy affects real economic activity through its affect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy, the classical dichotomy, or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand new Keynesian or new classical theories. Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy affects the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through its affect on total factor productivity, an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply-side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of countercyclical monetary policy as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy in the Great Moderation as well as the more recent rise in productivity growth.

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This paper revisits the weak relationship between exchange rate depreciation and exports for Singapore, using a bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time-varying risk. The evidence shows that depreciation does not significantly improve exports, but that exchange rate risk significantly impedes exports. In sum, Singaporean policy makers can better promote export growth by stabilizing the exchange rate rather than generating its depreciation.

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Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting outliers, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis disappears after GARCH adjustment once we incorporate the break in the variance equation.

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This paper explores the dynamic linkages that portray different facets of the joint probability distribution of stock market returns in NAFTA (i.e., Canada, Mexico, and the US). Our examination of interactions of the NAFTA stock markets considers three issues. First, we examine the long-run relationship between the three markets, using cointegration techniques. Second, we evaluate the dynamic relationships between the three markets, using impulse-response analysis. Finally, we explore the volatility transmission process between the three markets, using a variety of multivariate GARCH models. Our results also exhibit significant volatility transmission between the second moments of the NAFTA stock markets, albeit not homogenous. The magnitude and trend of the conditional correlations indicate that in the last few years, the Mexican stock market exhibited a tendency toward increased integration with the US market. Finally, we do note that evidence exists that the Peso and Asian financial crises as well as the stock-market crash in the US affect the return and volatility time-series relationships.

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Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market participation. Our results show that foreign exchange exposure is negatively related to derivatives market participation, and support the hedging explanation of the exchange rate exposure puzzle. This decline is especially salient in the financial sector, for bigger firms, and over longer time periods. Results are robust to using different exchange rates, a GARCH-SVAR approach to measure exchange rate exposure, and different return horizons.

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Outbreaks of diarrhea are common among children in day care centers (DCC). Enteropathogens associated with these outbreaks are spread by the fecal-oral route through contaminated hands or environmental objects. This prospective study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of fecal coliform (FC) contamination in the DCC environment. Ten rooms in 6 DCC housing 121 children $<$2 years of age were studied for 13 weeks. Inanimate objects (1275), toy balls (724), and hands (954) were cultured 1-3 times per week. FC contamination was common during each week of study and was significantly (p $<$ 0.05) greater for objects, toy balls, and hands of children in toddler compared to infant rooms. In 5 rooms in which clothes were worn over diapers, there was a significantly lower prevalence of FC of toy balls (p $<$ 0.005), inanimate objects (p $<$ 0.05), and hands of children (p $<$ 0.001) and caregivers (p $<$ 0.05) when compared to rooms in which overclothes were not worn. Occurrence of diarrhea was significantly associated with increased contamination of caregivers' and children's hands. Using plasmid analysis of trimethoprim (TMP)-resistant Escherichia coli, stool and environmental isolates from individual DCC rooms had the same plasmid patterns, which were unique to each center. In summary, FC of environmental isolates and hands of children and caregivers in DCC is common; toy balls can serve as sentinels of contamination; FC can be significantly decreased by use of clothes worn over diapers; and plasmid analysis of E. coli strains showed the same patterns from stool and environmental isolates. ^

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An investigation was undertaken to evaluate the role of fomites in the transmission of diarrhea in day-care centers (DCC) and to elucidate the paths by which enteric organisms spread within this setting.^ During a nine-month period (December 1980-August 1981) extensive culturing of inanimate objects, as well as children and staff was done routinely each month and again repeated during diarrhea outbreaks. Air was sampled from the classrooms and toilets using a Single-Stage Sieve Sampler (Ross Industries, Midland, VA.). Stool samples were collected from both ill and well children and staff in the affected rooms only during outbreaks. Environmental samples were processed for Shigella, salmonella and fecal coliforms while stools were screened for miscellaneous enteropathogens.^ A total of 11 outbreaks occurred in the 5 DCC during the study period. Enteric pathogens were recovered in 7 (64%) of the outbreaks. Multiple pathogens were identified in 3 outbreaks. The most frequently identified pathogen in stools was Giardia lamblia which was recovered in 5 (45%) of the outbreaks. Ten of the 11 (91%) outbreaks occurred in children less than 12 months of age.^ Environmental microbiology studies together with epidemiologic information revealed that enteric organisms were transmitted from person-to-person. On routine sampling, fecal coliforms were most frequently isolated from tap handles and diaper change areas. Contamination with fetal coliforms was wide-spread during diarrhea outbreaks. Fecal coliforms were recovered with significantly greater frequency from hands, toys and other classroom objects during outbreaks than during non-outbreak period. Salmonella typhimurium was recovered from a table top during an outbreak of Salmonellosis. There was no association between the level of enteric microbial contamination in the toilet areas and the occurrence of outbreaks. No evidence was found to indicate that enteric organisms were spread by the airborne route via aerosols.^ Toys, other classroom objects and contaminated hands probably play a major role in the transmission of enteropathogens during day-care center outbreaks. The presence of many enteric agents in the environment undoubtedly explains the polymicrobial etiology of the day-care center associated diarrhea outbreaks. ^