Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Intermolecular Interactions of Noble-Gas-Containing Species

The importance of intermolecular interactions to chemistry, physics, and biology is difficult to overestimate. Without intermolecular forces, condensed phase matter could not form. The simplest way to categorize different types of intermolecular interactions is to describe them using van der Waals and hydrogen bonded (H-bonded) interactions. In the H-bond, the intermolecular interaction appears between a positively charged hydrogen atom and electronegative fragments and it originates from strong electrostatic interactions. H-bonding is important when considering the properties of condensed phase water and in many biological systems including the structure of DNA and proteins. Vibrational spectroscopy is a useful tool for studying complexes and the solvation of molecules. Vibrational frequency shift has been used to characterize complex formation. In an H-bonded system A∙∙∙H-X (A and X are acceptor and donor species, respectively), the vibrational frequency of the H-X stretching vibration usually decreases from its value in free H-X (red-shift). This frequency shift has been used as evidence for H-bond formation and the magnitude of the shift has been used as an indicator of the H-bonding strength. In contrast to this normal behavior are the blue-shifting H-bonds, in which the H-X vibrational frequency increases upon complex formation. In the last decade, there has been active discussion regarding these blue-shifting H-bonds. Noble-gases have been considered inert due to their limited reactivity with other elements. In the early 1930 s, Pauling predicted the stable noble-gas compounds XeF6 and KrF6. It was not until three decades later Neil Bartlett synthesized the first noble-gas compound, XePtF6, in 1962. A renaissance of noble-gas chemistry began in 1995 with the discovery of noble-gas hydride molecules at the University of Helsinki. The first hydrides were HXeCl, HXeBr, HXeI, HKrCl, and HXeH. These molecules have the general formula of HNgY, where H is a hydrogen atom, Ng is a noble-gas atom (Ar, Kr, or Xe), and Y is an electronegative fragment. At present, this class of molecules comprises 23 members including both inorganic and organic compounds. The first and only argon-containing neutral chemical compound HArF was synthesized in 2000 and its properties have since been investigated in a number of studies. A helium-containing chemical compound, HHeF, was predicted computationally, but its lifetime has been predicted to be severely limited by hydrogen tunneling. Helium and neon are the only elements in the periodic table that do not form neutral, ground state molecules. A noble-gas matrix is a useful medium in which to study unstable and reactive species including ions. A solvated proton forms a centrosymmetric NgHNg+ (Ng = Ar, Kr, and Xe) structure in a noble-gas matrix and this is probably the simplest example of a solvated proton. Interestingly, the hypothetical NeHNe+ cation is isoelectronic with the water-solvated proton H5O2+ (Zundel-ion). In addition to the NgHNg+ cations, the isoelectronic YHY- (Y = halogen atom or pseudohalogen fragment) anions have been studied with the matrix-isolation technique. These species have been known to exist in alkali metal salts (YHY)-M+ (M = alkali metal e.g. K or Na) for more than 80 years. Hydrated HF forms the FHF- structure in aqueous solutions, and these ions participate in several important chemical processes. In this thesis, studies of the intermolecular interactions of HNgY molecules and centrosymmetric ions with various species are presented. The HNgY complexes show unusual spectral features, e.g. large blue-shifts of the H-Ng stretching vibration upon complexation. It is suggested that the blue-shift is a normal effect for these molecules, and that originates from the enhanced (HNg)+Y- ion-pair character upon complexation. It is also found that the HNgY molecules are energetically stabilized in the complexed form, and this effect is computationally demonstrated for the HHeF molecule. The NgHNg+ and YHY- ions also show blue-shifts in their asymmetric stretching vibration upon complexation with nitrogen. Additionally, the matrix site structure and hindered rotation (libration) of the HNgY molecules were studied. The librational motion is a much-discussed solid state phenomenon, and the HNgY molecules embedded in noble-gas matrices are good model systems to study this effect. The formation mechanisms of the HNgY molecules and the decay mechanism of NgHNg+ cations are discussed. A new electron tunneling model for the decay of NgHNg+ absorptions in noble-gas matrices is proposed. Studies of the NgHNg+∙∙∙N2 complexes support this electron tunneling mechanism.

Lucy Dawidowicz papers, 1938-1990.

Contains research notes on American history, some of which were used in her book, _On Equal Terms_. Also contains notes on Antisemitism in America, Holocaust denial, and European Jewish heritage and the Holocaust. Materials also include biographical materials consisting of letters, notes, memorabilia, and photographs. There is also a series of publications: published articles, books, and other materials, along with business correspondence dealing with book publishers and editors. Photographs include those taken during her year in Vilna (1938) until her death in 1990. Correspondence covers the years 1961-1990 and contains letters with many historians, professors, and scholars in the field of Jewish affairs. Also contains personal correspondence with colleagues and friends such as Cynthia Ozick and Marie Syrkin.

Integrating different approaches in the definition of biological stocks: A northern Australian multi-jurisdictional fisheries example using grey mackerel, Scomberomorus semifasciatus

A holistic approach to stock structure studies utilises multiple different techniques on the same individuals sampled from selected populations and combines results across spatial and temporal scales to produce a weight of evidence conclusion. It is the most powerful and reliable source of information to use in formulating resource management and monitoring plans. Few examples of the use of a holistic approach in stock structure studies exist, although more recently this is changing. Using such an approach makes integration of results from each technique challenging. An integrated stock definition (ISD) approach for holistic stock structure studies was developed in this study to aid in the appropriate interpretation of stock structure results to guide the determination of fishery management units. The ISD approach is applied herein to a study of the northern Australian endemic grey mackerel, Scomberomorus semifasciatus (Scombridae). Analyses of genetic (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites), parasite, otolith stable isotope, and growth data are synthesised to determine the stock structure of S. semifasciatus across northern Australia. Integration of the results from all techniques identified at least six S. semifasciatus stocks for management purposes. Further, the use of the ISD approach provided a simple basis for integrating multiple techniques and for their interpretation. The use of this holistic approach was a powerful tool in providing greater certainty about the appropriate management units for S. semifasciatus. Future stock structure studies investigating spatial management questions in the fisheries context should adopt a holistic approach and apply the ISD approach for a more accurate definition of biological stocks to improve fisheries management.

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

Emerging literature on climate adaptation suggests the need for effective ways of engaging or activating communities and supporting community roles, coupled with whole-of-system approaches to understanding climate change and adaptation needs. We have developed and evaluated a participatory approach to elicit community and stakeholder understanding of climate change adaptation needs, and connect diverse community members and local office bearers towards potential action. The approach was trialed in a series of connected social-ecological systems along a transect from a rural area to the coast and islands of ecologically sensitive Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia. We conducted ‘climate roundtables’ in each of three areas along the transect, then a fourth roundtable reviewed and extended the results to the region as a whole. Influence diagrams produced through the process show how each climate variable forecast to affect this region (heat, storm, flood, sea-level rise, fire, drought) affects the natural environment, infrastructure, economic and social behaviour patterns, and psychosocial responses, and how sets of people, species and ecosystems are affected, and act, differentially. The participatory process proved effective as a way of building local empathy, a local knowledge base and empowering participants to join towards future climate adaptation action. Key principles are highlighted to assist in adapting the process for use elsewhere.

Integrating pest population models with biophysical crop models to better represent the farming system

Farming systems frameworks such as the Agricultural Production Systems simulator (APSIM) represent fluxes through the soil, plant and atmosphere of the system well, but do not generally consider the biotic constraints that function within the system. We designed a method that allowed population models built in DYMEX to interact with APSIM. The simulator engine component of the DYMEX population-modelling platform was wrapped within an APSIM module allowing it to get and set variable values in other APSIM models running in the simulation. A rust model developed in DYMEX is used to demonstrate how the developing rust population reduces the crop's green leaf area. The success of the linking process is seen in the interaction of the two models and how changes in rust population on the crop's leaves feedback to the APSIM crop modifying the growth and development of the crop's leaf area. This linking of population models to simulate pest populations and biophysical models to simulate crop growth and development increases the complexity of the simulation, but provides a tool to investigate biotic constraints within farming systems and further moves APSIM towards being an agro-ecological framework.

Boosting the productivity and profitability of northern Australian beef enterprises: Exploring innovation options using simulation modelling and systems analysis

The financial health of beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia has declined markedly over the last decade due to an escalation in production and marketing costs and a real decline in beef prices. Historically, gains in animal productivity have offset the effect of declining terms of trade on farm incomes. This raises the question of whether future productivity improvements can remain a key path for lifting enterprise profitability sufficient to ensure that the industry remains economically viable over the longer term. The key objective of this study was to assess the production and financial implications for north Australian beef enterprises of a range of technology interventions (development scenarios), including genetic gain in cattle, nutrient supplementation, and alteration of the feed base through introduced pastures and forage crops, across a variety of natural environments. To achieve this objective a beef systems model was developed that is capable of simulating livestock production at the enterprise level, including reproduction, growth and mortality, based on energy and protein supply from natural C4 pastures that are subject to high inter-annual climate variability. Comparisons between simulation outputs and enterprise performance data in three case study regions suggested that the simulation model (the Northern Australia Beef Systems Analyser) can adequately represent the performance beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia. Testing of a range of development scenarios suggested that the application of individual technologies can substantially lift productivity and profitability, especially where the entire feedbase was altered through legume augmentation. The simultaneous implementation of multiple technologies that provide benefits to different aspects of animal productivity resulted in the greatest increases in cattle productivity and enterprise profitability, with projected weaning rates increasing by 25%, liveweight gain by 40% and net profit by 150% above current baseline levels, although gains of this magnitude might not necessarily be realised in practice. While there were slight increases in total methane output from these development scenarios, the methane emissions per kg of beef produced were reduced by 20% in scenarios with higher productivity gain. Combinations of technologies or innovative practices applied in a systematic and integrated fashion thus offer scope for providing the productivity and profitability gains necessary to maintain viable beef enterprises in northern Australia into the future.

Effective earth and space science analogies

There are several good reasons why Earth and Space Science should be a part of any science curriculum. Nearly everything we do each day is connected in some way to the Earth: to its land, oceans, atmosphere, plants and animals. By 2025, eight billion people will live on Earth. If we are to continue extracting resources to maintain a high quality of life, then it is important that our children are scientifically literate in a way that allows them to exploit the Earth’s resources in a sustainable way. People who understand how earth systems work can make informed decisions and may be able to help resolve issues surrounding clean water, urban planning and development, global climate change and the use and management of natural resources.

Natural convection in rectangular cavities at high Rayleigh number

Natural convection in rectangular two-dimensional cavities with differentially heated side walls is a standard problem in numerical heat transfer. Most of the existing studies has considered the low Ra laminar regime. The general thrust of the present research is to investigate higher Ra flows extending into the unsteady and turbulent regimes where the physics is not fully understood and appropriate models for turbulence are not yet established. In the present study the Boussinesq approximation is being used, but the theoretical background and some preliminary results have been obtained[1] for flows with variable properties.

A computer code for enclosed natural convection in the boundary layer regime

A computer code is developed for the numerical prediction of natural convection in rectangular two-dimensional cavities at high Rayleigh numbers. The governing equations are retained in the primitive variable form. The numerical method is based on finite differences and an ADI scheme. Convective terms may be approximated with either central or hybrid differencing for greater stability. A non-uniform grid distribution is possible for greater efficiency. The pressure is dealt with via a SIMPLE type algorithm and the use of a fast elliptic solver for the solenoidal velocity correction field significantly reduces computing times. Preliminary results indicate that the code is reasonably accurate, robust and fast compared with existing benchmarks and finite difference based codes, particularly at high Rayleigh numbers. Extension to three-dimensional problems and turbulence studies in similar geometries is readily possible and indicated.

The laminar boundary layer regime for natural convection of air in a square cavity

Numerical predictions are obtained for laminar natural convection of air in a square two dimensional cavity at high Rayleigh numbers. Proper resolution of the core reveals weak multi-cellular structure which varies in a complex manner as the effects of convection are increased. The end of the steady laminar regime is numerically estimated to occur at Ra=2.2x10^8.

Laminar and turbulent natural convection in rectangular cavities

A computer program has been developed for the prediction of buoyancy-driven laminar and turbulent flow in rectangular air-filled two-dimensional cavities with differentially heated side walls. Laminar flow predictions for a square cavity and Rayleigh numbers from Ra = 10^3 up to the onset of unsteady flow have been obtained. Accurate solutions for Ra = 5 x 10^6, 10^7, 5 x 10^7 and 10^8 are presented and an estimate for the critical Rayleigh number at which the steady laminar flow becomes unsteady is given for this geometry. Numerical predictions of turbulent flow have been obtained for RaH~0(10^9 -10^11 ) and compared with existing experimental data. A previously developed second moment closure model (Behnia et al. 1987) has been used to model the turbulence. Results indicate that a second moment closure model is capable of predicting the observed flow features.

Laminar and turbulent natural convection in rectangular cavities

"This chapter discusses laminar and turbulent natural convection in rectangular cavities. Natural convection in rectangular two-dimensional cavities has become a standard problem in numerical heat transfer because of its relevance in understanding a number of problems in engineering. Current research identified a number of difficulties with regard to the numerical methods and the turbulence modeling for this class of flows. Obtaining numerical predictions at high Rayleigh numbers proved computationally expensive such that results beyond Ra ∼ 1014 are rarely reported. The chapter discusses a study in which it was found that turbulent computations in square cavities can't be extended beyond Ra ∼ O (1012) despite having developed a code that proved very efficient for the high Ra laminar regime. As the Rayleigh number increased, thin boundary layers began to form next to the vertical walls, and the central region became progressively more stagnant and highly stratified. Results obtained for the high Ra laminar regime were in good agreement with existing studies. Turbulence computations, although of a preliminary nature, indicated that a second moment closure model was capable of predicting the experimentally observed flow features."--Publisher Summary

Tutoring with higher mathematics and the use of technology

We discuss three approaches to the use of technology as a teaching and learning tool that we are currently implementing for a target group of about one hundred second level engineering mathematics students. Central to these approaches is the underlying theme of motivating relatively poorly motivated students to learn, with the aim of improving learning outcomes. The approaches to be discussed have been used to replace, in part, more traditional mathematics tutorial sessions and lecture presentations. In brief, the first approach involves the application of constructivist thinking in the tertiary education arena, using technology as a computational and visual tool to create motivational knowledge conflicts or crises. The central idea is to model a realistic process of how scientific theory is actually developed, as proposed by Kuhn (1962), in contrast to more standard lecture and tutorial presentations. The second approach involves replacing procedural or algorithmic pencil-and-paper skills-consolidation exercises by software based tasks. Finally, the third approach aims at creating opportunities for higher order thinking via "on-line" exploratory or discovery mode tasks. The latter incorporates the incubation period method, as originally discussed by Rubinstein (1975) and others.