Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

The EU strategy of policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade

The objective of this paper is to ascertain whether the EU is seeking policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade by means of EU regulations. For each trade- related topic, we carried out a content analysis of the available official documents to identify the model of relations that has been established between the EU and four neighbouring countries (Morocco, Algeria, Ukraine and Georgia). The findings indicate that Europeanization is the EU strategy in most cases. However, adaptation to European regulations is only a long-term aim. When international regulations exist in a specific area, the EU usually demands the internationalization of a country¿s regulations as a first step. When there are no international regulations, the convergence process is established on the basis of bilaterally developed norms. EU strategy also varies depending on the country. Its relations with Algeria are the most particular. We conclude that the EU is promoting policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade mainly on the basis of international and bilaterally-developed regulations.

Financial Integration, Trade Openness and International Transmission

[cat] Com afecten l’obertura comercial i financera a la volatilitat macroeconòmica? La literatura existent, tant empírica com teòrica, no ha assolit encara un consens. Aquest article usa un model microfonamentat de dos països simètrics amb entrada endògena d’empreses per estudiar-ho. L’anàlisis es du a terme per tres règims econòmics diferents amb diferents nivells d’integració internacional: una economia tancada, una autarquia financera i una integració plena. Es consideren diversos nivells d’obertura comercial, en forma de biaix domèstic de la demanda i l’economia pot patir pertorbacions en la productivitat del treball i en innovació. El model conclou que la incertesa macroeconòmica, representada principalment per la volatilitat del consum, la producció i la relació real d’intercanvi internacional, depèn del grau d’obertura i del tipus de pertorbació.

Complementarity between human capital and trade in regional technological progress

The effect of openness and trade orientation on economic growth remains a highly contentious issue in the literature. Trade facilitates the spread of knowledge and the adoption of more advanced and efficient technologies, which hastens total factor productivity (TFP) growth and, hence, per capita income. New technologies that spread through trade require a sufficiently skilled labour force to adapt them to the domestic productive environment. Thus, openness and human capital accumulation will lead to TFP growth and the greater the complementarity between both variables, the higher the TFP growth. This paper discusses the implications of these assumptions and tests their empirical validity, using a pool of data for manufacturing industry in Spanish regions in a period in which both the stock of human capital and openness experienced a notable increase.

Cotton manufacturers as bankers: the textile trade and credit in spain, 1840-1913

[cat] La historiografia ha assenyalat que en el segle XIX el crèdit que els fabricants cotoners catalans oferien als seus clients era de caràcter informal i, per tant, impossible de ser transferit al sistema bancari. Això hauria tingut un efecte negatiu en la rendibilitat de les empreses cotoneres. A partir de l’anàlisi de diversos arxius empresarials, així com de fonts judicials i notarials, aquest treball confirma aquesta descripció dels fets però proposa una interpretació més optimista. Els fabricants feien de banquers dels seus clients perquè eren els millor situats per a exercir aquesta funció. Havien construït una bona estructura d’informació, gestionaven eficientment el risc creditici i obtenien beneficis d’aquesta activitat.

Trade policy and regional inequalities

This paper aims to analyse the effects of trade policies in the pattern of regional inequalities within a country. Inspired firstly, by the debate concerning the role of protectionist policies in the settlement of a pattern of striking regional inequalities in the Spanish industrialisation process and secondly, by current evidence of an increase in these inequalities following the entry of Spain in the EU (1986), we set a model that shows that trade liberalisation increases regional inequalities.

The adjustment of energy expenditure and oxidation to energy intake: the role of carbohydrate and fat balance.

Evidence is accumulating that total body mass and its relative composition influence the rate of fat utilization in man. This effect can be explained by two factors operating in concert: (i) the effect of the size of the tissue mass and (ii) the nature of the fuel mix oxidized, i.e. the proportion of energy derived from fat vs. carbohydrate. In a cross-sectional study of 307 women with increasing degrees of obesity, we observed that the respiratory quotient (RQ) in post-absorptive conditions became progressively lower with increased body fatness, indicating a shift in substrate utilization. However, the RQ is known to be also influenced by the diet commonly ingested by the subjects. A short-term mixed diet overfeeding in lean and obese women has also demonstrated the high sensitivity of RQ to changes in energy balance. Following a one-day overfeeding (2500 kcal/day in excess of the previous 24 h energy expenditure), the magnitude of increase in RQ was identical in lean and obese subjects and the net efficiency of substrate utilization and storage was not influenced by the state of obesity.

European integration, FDI and the internal geography of trade : evidence from Western European border regions

In this paper we use a gravity model to study the trade performance of French and Spanishborder regions relatively to non-border regions, over the past two decades. We find that,controlling for their size, proximity and location characteristics, border regions trade onaverage between 62% and 193% more with their neighbouring country than other regions,and twice as much if they are endowed with good cross border transport infrastructures.Despite European integration, however, this trade outperformance has fallen for the mostperipheral regions within the EU. We show that this trend was linked in part to a shift in the propensity of foreign investors to move their affiliates from the regions near their home market to the regions bordering the EU core.

On the use of spatially discrete data to compute energy and mass balance

In many practical applications the state of field soils is monitored by recording the evolution of temperature and soil moisture at discrete depths. We theoretically investigate the systematic errors that arise when mass and energy balances are computed directly from these measurements. We show that, even with no measurement or model errors, large residuals might result when finite difference approximations are used to compute fluxes and storage term. To calculate the limits set by the use of spatially discrete measurements on the accuracy of balance closure, we derive an analytical solution to estimate the residual on the basis of the two key parameters: the penetration depth and the distance between the measurements. When the thickness of the control layer for which the balance is computed is comparable to the penetration depth of the forcing (which depends on the thermal diffusivity and on the forcing period) large residuals arise. The residual is also very sensitive to the distance between the measurements, which requires accurately controlling the position of the sensors in field experiments. We also demonstrate that, for the same experimental setup, mass residuals are sensitively larger than the energy residuals due to the nonlinearity of the moisture transport equation. Our analysis suggests that a careful assessment of the systematic mass error introduced by the use of spatially discrete data is required before using fluxes and residuals computed directly from field measurements.

Respiration, metabolic balance, and attention in affective picture processing

The respiratory behavior during affective states is not completely understood. We studied breathing pattern responses to picture series in 37 participants. We also measured end-tidal pCO2 (EtCO2) to determine if ventilation is in balance with metabolic demands and spontaneous eye-blinking to investigate the link between respiration and attention. Minute ventilation (MV) and inspiratory drive increased with self-rated arousal. These relationships reflected increases in inspiratory volume rather than shortening of the time parameters. EtCO2 covaried with pleasantness but not arousal. Eye-blink rate decreased with increasing unpleasantness in line with a negativity bias in attention. This study confirms that respiratory responses to affective stimuli are organized to a certain degree along the dimensions of valence and arousal. It shows, for the first time, that during picture viewing, ventilatory increases with increasing arousal are in balance with metabolic activity and that inspiratory volume is modulated by arousal. MV emerges as the most reliable respiratory index of self-perceived arousal

Dietary fat, lipogenesis and energy balance.

Today, there are still uncertainties about the role of exogenous fat on body fat regulation. Early models of energy utilization (for example, Kleiber's, early 20th century) failed to take into account the nature of substrate oxidized in the control of food intake, whereas more recent models (e.g., Flatt's model, end of 20th century) did. Excess body fat storage is ultimately a problem of chronic positive energy balance mediated by a poor control of energy intake or/and a blunted total energy expenditure. Excess fat storage can stem from exogenous fat and to a more limited extent by nonfat substrates precursors transformed into body fat, mostly from carbohydrates, a process known as de novo lipogenesis. When considered over periods of weeks, months or years, total fat balance is closely related to energy balance. Over periods of days, the net change in fat balance is quantitatively limited as compared to the size of endogenous fat storage. The issues discussed in this article primarily include the stimulation of de novo lipogenesis after acute or prolonged CHO overfeeding and whether de novo lipogenesis is a risk factor for obesity development.

Structural brain plasticity in Parkinson's disease induced by balance training.

We investigated morphometric brain changes in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) that are associated with balance training. A total of 20 patients and 16 healthy matched controls learned a balance task over a period of 6 weeks. Balance testing and structural magnetic resonance imaging were performed before and after 2, 4, and 6 training weeks. Balance performance was re-evaluated after ∼20 months. Balance training resulted in performance improvements in both groups. Voxel-based morphometry revealed learning-dependent gray matter changes in the left hippocampus in healthy controls. In PD patients, performance improvements were correlated with gray matter changes in the right anterior precuneus, left inferior parietal cortex, left ventral premotor cortex, bilateral anterior cingulate cortex, and left middle temporal gyrus. Furthermore, a TIME × GROUP interaction analysis revealed time-dependent gray matter changes in the right cerebellum. Our results highlight training-induced balance improvements in PD patients that may be associated with specific patterns of structural brain plasticity. In summary, we provide novel evidence for the capacity of the human brain to undergo learning-related structural plasticity even in a pathophysiological disease state such as in PD.