Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields: The Fed Model Approach

Prediction of the stock market valuation is a common interest to all market participants. Theoretically sound market valuation can be achieved by discounting future earnings of equities to present. Competing valuation models seek to find variables that affect the equity market valuation in a way that the market valuation can be explained and also variables that could be used to predict market valuation. In this paper we test the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, forward looking earnings and long-term government bond yields. We test this so-called Fed model in a long- and short-term time series analysis. In order to test the dynamics of the relationship, we use the cointegration framework. The data used in this study spans over four decades of various market conditions between 1964-2007, using data from United States. The empirical results of our analysis do not give support for the Fed model. We are able to show that the long-term government bonds do not play statistically significant role in this relationship. The effect of forward earnings yield on the stock market prices is significant and thus we suggest the use of standard valuation ratios when trying to predict the future paths of equity prices. Also, changes in the long-term government bond yields do not have significant short-term impact on stock prices.

The Role of Biomarkers for Starting Antifungals in the Intensive Care Unit

Invasive candidiasis is associated with high mortality rates (35% to 60%), similar to the range reported for septic shock. The most common types include candidemia, frequently observed in immunocompromised patients, and noncandidemic systemic candidiasis, which constitutes the majority of cases in critically ill patients. However, they are difficult to prove and a definite diagnosis usually occurs late in the course of the disease, thus contributing to their bad prognosis. Early empirical treatment improves the prognosis and currently relies on the positive predictive value (PPV) of risk-assessment strategies (colonization index, Candida score, predictive rules) based on combinations of risk factors, but it may have also largely contributed to the overuse of antifungal agents in critically ill patients. In this context, non- culture-based diagnostic methods, including specific and nonspecific biomarkers, may significantly improve the diagnosis of invasive candidiasis. Candida DNA and mannan antigen/antimannan antibodies are of limited interest for the diagnosis of invasive candidiasis as they fail to identify noncandidemic systemic candidiasis, despite early positivity in candidemic patients. The utility of 1,3-beta-D-glucan (b-D-glucan), a panfungal cell wall antigen, has been demonstrated for the diagnosis of fungal infections in immunocompromised patients. Preliminary data suggest that it is also detectable early in critically ill patients developing noncandidemic systemic candidiasis. To take advantage of the high negative predictive value of risk-assessment strategies and the early increase in specific fungal biomarkers in high-risk patients, we propose a practical 2-step approach to improve the selection of patients susceptible to benefit from empirical antifungal treatment.

Mesure de l'impact de l'implication des proches aidants de patients hospitalises dans une unité de soins psychiatriques aigus sur eux-mêmes

Le but de cette étude est de mesurer ainsi que de qualifier l'impact de l'implication des proches aidants de patients hospitalisés dans des unités de soins psychiatriques aigus sur eux-mêmes. Le cadre conceptuel utilisé est celui du fardeau des familles de Schene (1990). Il différencie les parties objectives et subjectives du fardeau familial. La récolte de données a été réalisée à l'aide de l'Involvement Evaluation Questionnaire (IEQ). Les résultats de cette étude montrent que les proches aidants souffrent d'un niveau d'inquiétude élevé, 3.8 sur une échelle de Likert à 5 questions, ainsi que d'un niveau de tension à 2.44 sur une échelle de Likert à 5 questions. Des associations ont été trouvées. L'augmentation de la durée du trouble diminue l'inquiétude, avec une valeur ρ de 0.048. Le fait d'être habitué à la situation a également un impact en diminuant la tension, avec une valeur ρ de 0.002. Plus on est « habitué à la situation », avec une valeur ρ de -0.021, moins le proche est inquiet par rapport à la situation du patient. Ainsi que, plus le patient est jeune, plus le proche aidant ressent de tension, avec une valeur ρ de 0.008. Ces résultats, peu généralisables au vu du petit échantillon (n=24), pourraient toutefois impliquer une réflexion approfondie sur l'accueil, la place et le soutien des proches aidants de patients souffrants de troubles psychiatriques hospitalisés dans une unité de soins aigus de la part des infirmières.

Cranial computed tomography findings in patients admitted to the emergency unit of Hospital Universitário Cajuru

Objective To identify and analyze the prevalence of cranial computed tomography findings in patients admitted to the emergency unit of Hospital Universitário Cajuru. Materials and Methods Cross-sectional study analyzing 200 consecutive non contrast-enhanced cranial computed tomography reports of patients admitted to the emergency unit of Hospital Universitário Cajuru. Results Alterations were observed in 76.5% of the patients. Among them, the following findings were most frequently observed: extracranial soft tissue swelling (22%), bone fracture (16.5%), subarachnoid hemorrhage (15%), nonspecific hypodensity (14.5%), paranasal sinuses opacification (11.5%), diffuse cerebral edema (10.5%), subdural hematoma (9.5%), cerebral contusion (8.5%), hydrocephalus (8%), retractable hypodensity /gliosis/ encephalomalacia (8%). Conclusion The authors recognize that the most common findings in emergency departments reported in the literature are similar to the ones described in the present study. This information is important for professionals to recognize the main changes to be identified at cranial computed tomography, and for future planning and hospital screening aiming at achieving efficiency and improvement in services.

Le pool ou unité commune de personnel soignant

L'unité commune de personnel soignant ou pool infirmier du CHUV est un service de professionnels qualifiés, disponibles et capables de remplacer les défections du personnel régulier ou renforcer les effectifs lors de surcharge de travail occasionnel. [Table des matières] 1. Le pool: perspective historique: Origine du travail intérimaire; Le travail intérimaire en Suisse et son développement; Genèse du Pool; Développement du Pool. 2. Problématique du Pool : Perspective conceptuelle et théorique. L'hôpital, modèle d'organisation pris entre deux logiques; Marché-hiérarchie: théorie des coûts de transactions; La coordination collective des actions individuelles apport de l'économie des conventions. Concept de flexibilité. Connaissance tacite et explicite. 3. Le terrain d'observation. Annexes: Questionnaire des poolistes et résumé des commentaires; etc.

Keeping the balance? Management of oxidative stress, body mass and reproduction under energetic constraints by dispersing and philopatric collared flycatchers.

Dispersal, i.e. individual movement between breeding sites, is a key process for metapopulation dynamics and gene flow. Its success can be modulated by phenotypic differences between dispersing and philopatric individuals, or dispersal syndromes. However, the environmental (external) and physiological (internal) constraints underlying such syndromes remain poorly known. This project aimed at clarifying the impact of environmental variation and oxidative constraints, linked to the reactive oxygen species produced during respiration, on phenotypes associated to dispersal in a passerine bird, the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis. Energetic demand was experimentally (i) increased through a wing load manipulation or (ii) relieved through food supplementation. The oxidative balance of breeding flycatchers was influenced by complex interactions of dispersal status and extrinsic factors (breeding density, year, experimental treatments). Interestingly, antioxidant capacity was influenced both by permanent individual differences and by food availability, whereas measures of pro-oxidants were highly variables within individuals. Environmental variation and energetic constraints also modulated the differences in reproduction associated with dispersal: dispersing and philopatric birds differ in their management of the oxidative balance when it is competing with reproductive investment. This thesis highlights that reaction norms, rather than fixed differences, often shape traits associated to dispersal. ----- Le déplacement d'un individu entre sites de reproduction, ou dispersion, est un processus clé pour la dynamique des métapopulations et les flux de gènes. Son succès peut être modulé par des différences de phénotype, ou syndromes de dispersion. Cependant, les contraintes environnementales et physiologiques qui sous-tendent ces syndromes restent mal connues. Ce projet vise à clarifier l'impact des variations environnementales et des contraintes oxydatives (liées aux espèces réactives de l'oxygène produites durant la respiration) sur les phénotypes associés à la dispersion chez un passereau, le gobemouche à collier Ficedula albicollis. La demande énergétique a été expérimentalement (i) augmentée en manipulant la surface alaire ou (ii) diminuée par une supplémentation en nourriture. L'équilibre oxydo-réducteur des gobemouches en reproduction est influencé par des interactions complexes entre statut de dispersion et facteurs extrinsèques (densité de couples reproducteurs, année, traitement expérimental). La capacité antioxydante dépend principalement de différences permanentes entre individus, alors que les pro-oxydants présentent de grandes variations intra-individu. Environnement et contraintes énergétiques modulent aussi les différences de reproduction liées à la dispersion : les oiseaux dispersants et philopatriques diffèrent dans leur gestion de l'équilibre oxydo-réducteur lorsqu'il est en compétition avec l'investissement reproducteur. Ce travail souligne que les traits associés à la dispersion sont souvent déterminés par des normes de réaction à l'environnement et non des différences fixées entre individus.

Mobility Among Social Education Students at the University of Girona: Taking Stock of a Decade of Fieldwork Practice Abroad

The following article is divided into five sections, each one with a specific objective. The first section briefly presents the student mobility experiences obtained basically through the fieldwork practice course in social education studies at the University of Girona. The second section delves more deeply to explore the value of the exchange and the student mobility experience over one semester of intensive fieldwork practice. The third section presents data about the students who have participated in this experience inall ten of the graduating classes. The fourth part offers an assessment of the experience and reports which aspects are considered essential to a good student mobility experience. Finally, various actions to be taken to improve these educational experiences within the social education studies at the University of Girona are specified

Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.