Dynamic behavior of sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil (1954-2008)

INTRODUCTION: Sylvatic yellow fever (SYF) is enzootic in Brazil, causing periodic outbreaks in humans living near forest borders or in rural areas. In this study, the cycling patterns of this arbovirosis were analyzed. METHODS: Spectral Fourier analysis was used to capture the periodicity patterns of SYF in time series. RESULTS: SYF outbreaks have not increased in frequency, only in the number of cases. There are two dominant cycles in SYF outbreaks, a seven year cycle for the central-western region and a 14 year cycle for the northern region. Most of the variance was concentrated in the central-western region and dominated the entire endemic region. CONCLUSIONS: The seven year cycle is predominant in the endemic region of the disease due the greater contribution of variance in the central-western region; however, it was possible identify a 14 cycle that governs SYF outbreaks in the northern region. No periodicities were identified for the remaining geographical regions.

Rethinking the Portuguese banking sector in a post-crisis context

As the financial crisis hit the Portuguese banks, the profitability of the whole sector squeezed to historical minimums. Reinventing the banking business model in the post-crisis context is an overriding issue to achieve sustainable profits and a low cost-to-income ratio. We propose banks to adopt a true multichannel approach, proceeding to a branch network reformatting and a relocation of services to online channels; adopt a true customer-centric approach and reduce the product and services portfolio complexity; finally, industrialize operations and rationalize the structure. With these measures in place, Portuguese banks will become leaner and more efficient, aspiring to a cost-to-income ratio below 45%.

DYNAMOD – A dynamic agent based modelling framework for digital businesses

Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.

Dynamic delta hedging of autocallables under a discrete rebalancing context

This work tests different delta hedging strategies for two products issued by Banco de Investimento Global in 2012. The work studies the behaviour of the delta and gamma of autocallables and their impact on the results when delta hedging with different rebalancing periods. Given its discontinuous payoff and path dependency, it is suggested the hedging portfolio is rebalanced on a daily basis to better follow market changes. Moreover, a mixed strategy is analysed where time to maturity is used as a criterion to change the rebalancing frequency.

Post-merger innovative performance in the renewable energy sector

Due to global warming and shrinking fossil fuel resources, politics as well as society urge for a reduction of green house gas (GHG) emissions. This leads to a re-orientation towards a renewable energy sector. In this context, innovation and new technologies are key success factors. Moreover, the renewable energy sector has entered a consolidation stage, where corporate investors and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) gain in importance. Although both M&A and innovation in the renewable energy sector are important corporate strategies, the link between those two aspects has not been examined before. The present thesis examines the research question how M&A influence the acquirer’s post-merger innovative performance in the renewable energy sector. Based on a framework of relevant literature, three hypotheses are defined. First, the relation between non-technology oriented M&A and post-merger innovative performance is discussed. Second, the impact of absolute acquired knowledge on postmerger innovativeness is examined. Third, the target-acquirer relatedness is discussed. A panel data set of 117 firms collected over a period of six years has been analyzed via a random effects negative binomial regression model and a time lag of one year. The results support a non-significant, negative impact of non-technology M&A on postmerger innovative performance. The applied model did not support a positive and significant impact of absolute acquired knowledge on post-merger innovative performance. Lastly, the results suggest a reverse relation than postulated by Hypothesis 3. Targets from the same industry significantly and negatively influence the acquirers’ innovativeness.

Predictive factors of post-discharge surgical site infections among patients from a teaching hospital

Introduction Surgical site infections (SSIs) often manifest after patients are discharged and are missed by hospital-based surveillance. Methods We conducted a case-reference study nested in a prospective cohort of patients from six surgical specialties in a teaching hospital. The factors related to SSI were compared for cases identified during the hospital stay and after discharge. Results Among 3,427 patients, 222 (6.4%) acquired an SSI. In 138 of these patients, the onset of the SSI occurred after discharge. Neurological surgery and the use of steroids were independently associated with a greater likelihood of SSI diagnosis during the hospital stay. Conclusions Our results support the idea of a specialty-based strategy for post-discharge SSI surveillance.

Management of post-transplant Epstein-Barr virus-related lymphoproliferative disease in solid organ and hematopoietic stem cell recipients

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-related post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (PTLD) is one of the most serious complications associated with solid organ and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. PTLD is most frequently seen with primary EBV infection post-transplant, a common scenario for pediatric solid organ recipients. Risk factors for infection or reactivation of EBV following solid organ transplant are stronger immunosuppressive therapy regimens, and being seronegative for receptor. For hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, the risk factors relate to the type of transplant, human leukocyte antigen disparity, the use of stronger immunosuppressants, T-cell depletion, and severe graft-versus-host disease. Mortality is high, and most frequent in patients who develop PTLD in the first six months post-transplant. The primary goal of this article is to provide an overview of the clinical manifestations, diagnosis, accepted therapies, and management of EBV infection in transplant recipients, and to suggest that the adoption of monitoring protocols could contribute to a reduction in related complications.

Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvements on this forecasts’ accuracy and it is thus, by providing a more accurate model on its capsules’ sales, as well as recommending adequate implementations that positively contribute to the referred Planning Process, that value is brought to the Project

Post-splenectomy infections in chronic schistosomiasis as a consequence of bacterial translocation

INTRODUCTION : Bacterial translocation is the invasion of indigenous intestinal bacteria through the gut mucosa to normally sterile tissues and internal organs. Schistosomiasis may cause alterations in the immune system and damage to the intestines, portal system and mesenteric lymph nodes. This study investigated bacterial translocation and alterations in the intestinal microbiota and mucosa in schistosomiasis and splenectomized mice. METHODS : Forty female 35-day-old Swiss Webster mice were divided into the following four groups with 10 animals each: schistosomotic (ESF), splenectomized schistosomotic (ESEF), splenectomized (EF) and control (CF). Infection was achieved by introduction of 50 Schistosoma mansoni (SLM) cercariae through the skin. At 125 days after birth, half of the parasitized and unparasitized mice were subjected to splenectomy. Body weights were recorded for one week after splenectomy; then, the mice were euthanized to study bacterial translocation, microbiota composition and intestinal morphometry. RESULTS : We observed significant reductions in the weight increases in the EF, ESF and ESEF groups. There were increases of at least 1,000 CFU of intestinal microbiota bacteria in these groups compared with the CF. The EF, ESF and ESEF mice showed decreases in the heights and areas of villi and the total villus areas (perimeter). We observed frequent co-infections with various bacterial genera. CONCLUSIONS : The ESEF mice showed a higher degree of sepsis. This finding may be associated with a reduction in the immune response associated with the absence of the spleen and a reduction in nutritional absorption strengthened by both of these factors (Schistosoma infection and splenectomy).

Optimisation and design of post-tensioning anchorage corner blisters in concrete box girder bidges

The design of anchorage blisters of internal continuity post-tensioning tendons of bridges built by the cantilever method, presents some peculiarities, not only because they are intermediate anchorages but also because these anchorages are located in blisters, so the prestressing force has to be transferred from the blister the bottom slab and web of the girder. The high density of steel reinforcement in anchorage blisters is the most common reason for problems with concrete cast in situ, resulting in zones with low concrete compacity, leading to concrete crushing failures under the anchor plates. A solution may involve improving the concrete compression and tensile strength. To meet these requirements a high-performance fibre reinforced self-compacting mix- ture (HPFRC) was used in anchorage corner blisters of post-tensioning tendons, reducing the concrete cross-section and decreasing the reinforcement needed. To assess the ultimate capacity and the adequate serviceability of the local anchorage zone after reducing the minimum concrete cross-section and the confining reinforcement, specified by the anchorage device supplier for the particular tendon, load transfer tests were performed. To investigate the behaviour of anchorage blisters regarding the transmission of stresses to the web and the bottom slab of the girder, and the feasibility of using high performance concrete only in the blister, two half scale models of the inferior corner of a box girder existing bridge were studied: a reference specimen of ordinary reinforced concrete and a HPFRC blister specimen. The design of the reinforcement was based in the tensile forces obtained on strut-and-tie models. An experimental program was carried out to assess the models used in design and to study the feasibility of using high performance concrete only in the blister, either with casting in situ, or with precast solutions. A non-linear finite element analysis of the tested specimens was also performed and the results compared.

Continuidade e mudança. O sistema internacional no post‐Guerra Fria

O fim da Guerra Fria é um caso inédito de mudança pacífica da estrutura internacional, em que os Estados Unidos e a União Soviética transcendem a divisão bipolar para decidir os termos da paz no quadro das instituições que definem o modelo de ordenamento multilateral, consolidando a sua legitimidade. Nesse contexto, ao contrário dos casos precedentes de reconstrução internacional no fim de uma guerra hegemónica, o novo sistema do post-Guerra Fria, caracterizado pela unipolaridade, pela regionalização e pela homogeneização, forma-se num quadro de continuidade institucional. A ordem política do post-Guerra Fria é um sistema misto em que as tensões entre a hierarquia unipolar e a anarquia multipolar, a integração global e a fragmentação regional e a homogeneidade e a heterogeneidade política, ideológica e cultural condicionam as estratégias das potências. As crises internacionais vão pôr à prova a estabilidade da nova ordem e a sua capacidade para garantir mudanças pacíficas. A primeira década do post-Guerra Fria mostra a preponderância dos Estados Unidos e a sua confiança crescente, patente nas Guerras do Golfo Pérsico e dos Balcãs, bem como na crise dos Estreitos da Formosa. A reacção aos atentados do "11 de Setembro" revela uma tentação imperial da potência unipolar, nomeadamente com a invasão do Iraque, que provoca uma crise profunda da comunidade de segurança ocidental. A vulnerabilidade do centro da ordem internacional é confirmada pela crise constitucional europeia e pela crise financeira global. Essas crises não alteram a estrutura de poder mas aceleram a erosão da ordem multilateral e criam um novo quadro de possibilidades para a evolução internacional, que inclui uma escalada dos conflitos num quadro de multipolaridade regional, uma nova polarização entre as potências democráticas conservadoras e uma coligação revisionista autoritária, bem como a restauração de um concerto entre as principais potências internacionais.

The influence of fibre orientation on the post-cracking tensile behaviour of steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete

Adding fibres to concrete provides several advantages, especially in terms of controlling the crack opening width and propagation after the cracking onset. However, distribution and orientation of the fibres toward the active crack plane are significantly important in order to maximize its benefits. Therefore, in this study, the effect of the fibre distribution and orientation on the post-cracking tensile behaviour of the steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete (SFRSCC) specimens is investigated. For this purpose, several cores were extracted from distinct locations of a panel and were subjected to indirect (splitting) and direct tensile tests. The local stress-crack opening relationship (σ-w) was obtained by modelling the splitting tensile test under the finite element framework and by performing an Inverse Analysis (IA) procedure. Afterwards the σ-w law obtained from IA is then compared with the one ascertained directly from the uniaxial tensile tests. Finally, the fibre distribution/orientation parameters were determined adopting an image analysis technique.

Dynamic range prediction for an electric vehicle

Electric Vehicles (EVs) have limited energy storage capacity and the maximum autonomy range is strongly dependent of the driver's behaviour. Due to the fact of that batteries cannot be recharged quickly during a journey, it is essential that a precise range prediction is available to the driver of the EV. With this information, it is possible to check if the desirable destination is achievable without a stop to charge the batteries, or even, if to reach the destination it is necessary to perform an optimized driving (e.g., cutting the air-conditioning, among others EV parameters). The outcome of this research work is the development of an Electric Vehicle Assistant (EVA). This is an application for mobile devices that will help users to take efficient decisions about route planning, charging management and energy efficiency. Therefore, it will contribute to foster EVs adoption as a new paradigm in the transportation sector.

The role of temporary accommodation buildings for post-disaster housing reconstruction

The number of houses damaged or destroyed after disasters is frequently large, and re-housing of homeless people is one of the most important tasks of reconstruction programmes. Reconstruction works often last long and during that time, it is essential to provide victims with the minimum conditions to live with dignity, privacy, and protection. This research intends to demonstrate the crucial role of temporary accommodation buildings to provide spaces where people can live and gradually resume their life until they have a permanent house. The study also aims to identify the main problems of temporary accommodation strategies and to discuss some principles and guidelines in order to reach better design solutions. It is found that temporary accommodation is an issue that goes beyond the simple provision of buildings, since the whole space for temporary settlement is important. Likewise, temporary accommodation is a process that should start before a disaster occurs, as a preventive pre-planning. In spite of being temporary constructions, these housing buildings are one of the most important elements to provide in emergency scenarios, contributing for better recovery and reconstruction actions.

Earnings management and stock price crashes post-crossdelisting

We test whether cross-delisted firms from the major U.S. stock exchanges experience an increase in crash risk associated with earnings management. Consistent with our prediction, we find that earnings management have a greater positive impact on stock price crash risk post-cross-delisting when compared to a sample of still cross-listed firms. Moreover, our results suggest that this effect is more pronounced for crossdelisted firms from countries with weaker investor protection and poorer quality of their information environment. We further examine whether managers’ ability to manipulate earnings increases post-cross-delisting around seasoned equity offerings. Our evidence shows that cross-delisted firms that engage in earnings management to inflate reported earnings prior to a seasoned equity offering are more likely to observe a subsequent stock price crash.