A simple model for the establishment of tick-borne pathogens of Ixodes scapularis : a global sensitivity analysis of R0

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.

Dynamic Micromapping of CO2 Sorption in Coal

We have applied X-ray and neutron small-angle scattering techniques (SAXS, SANS, and USANS) to study the interaction between fluids and porous media in the particular case of subcritical CO2 sorption in coal. These techniques are demonstrated to give unique, pore-size-specific insights into the kinetics of CO2 sorption in a wide range of coal pores (nano to meso) and to provide data that may be used to determine the density of the sorbed CO2. We observed densification of the adsorbed CO2 by a factor up to five compared to the free fluid at the same (p, T) conditions. Our results indicate that details of CO2 sorption into coal pores differ greatly between different coals and depend on the amount of mineral matter dispersed in the coal matrix: a purely organic matrix absorbs more CO2 per unit volume than one containing mineral matter, but mineral matter markedly accelerates the sorption kinetics. Small pores are filled preferentially by the invading CO2 fluid and the apparent diffusion coefficients have been estimated to vary in the range from 5 × 10-7 cm2/min to more than 10-4 cm2/min, depending on the CO2 pressure and location on the sample.

A new dynamic accumulator for batch updates

A dynamic accumulator is an algorithm, which gathers together a large set of elements into a constant-size value such that for a given element accumulated, there is a witness confirming that the element was indeed included into the value, with a property that accumulated elements can be dynamically added and deleted into/from the original set such that the cost of an addition or deletion operation is independent of the number of accumulated elements. Although the first accumulator was presented ten years ago, there is still no standard formal definition of accumulators. In this paper, we generalize formal definitions for accumulators, formulate a security game for dynamic accumulators so-called Chosen Element Attack (CEA), and propose a new dynamic accumulator for batch updates based on the Paillier cryptosystem. Our construction makes a batch of update operations at unit cost. We prove its security under the extended strong RSA (es-RSA) assumption

Making YAWL and SmartPM interoperate : managing highly dynamic processes by exploiting automatic adaptation features

In the last years, the trade-o between exibility and sup- port has become a leading issue in work ow technology. In this paper we show how an imperative modeling approach used to de ne stable and well-understood processes can be complemented by a modeling ap- proach that enables automatic process adaptation and exploits planning techniques to deal with environmental changes and exceptions that may occur during process execution. To this end, we designed and imple- mented a Custom Service that allows the Yawl execution environment to delegate the execution of subprocesses and activities to the SmartPM execution environment, which is able to automatically adapt a process to deal with emerging changes and exceptions. We demonstrate the fea- sibility and validity of the approach by showing the design and execution of an emergency management process de ned for train derailments.

Introduction to the first international workshop on process management for highly dynamic and pervasive scenarios(PM4HDPS 2008)

Nowadays, process management systems (PMSs) are widely used in many business scenarios, e.g. by government agencies, by insurance companies, and by banks. Despite this widespread usage, the typical application of such systems is predominantly in the context of static scenarios, instead of pervasive and highly dynamic scenarios. Nevertheless, pervasive and highly dynamic scenarios could also benefit from the use of PMSs.

Informing engineering education for sustainable development using a deliberative dynamic model for curriculum renewal

Literature from around the world clearly suggests that engineering education has been relatively slow to incorporate significant knowledge and skill areas, including the rapidly emerging area of sustainable development. Within this context, this paper presents the findings of research that questioned how engineering educators could consistently implement systematic and intentional curriculum renewal that is responsive to emerging engineering challenges and opportunities. The paper presents a number of elements of systematic and intentional curriculum renewal that have been empirically distilled from a qualitative multiple-method iterative research approach including literature review, narrative enquiry, pilot trials and peer-review workshops undertaken by the authors with engineering educators from around the world. The paper also presents new knowledge arising from the research, in the form of a new model that demonstrates a dynamic and deliberative mechanism for strategically accelerating for curriculum renewal efforts. Specifically the paper discusses implications of this model to achieve education for sustainable development, across all disciplines of engineering. It concludes with broader research and practice implications for the field of education research.

Dynamic positioning of marine craft using a port-Hamiltonian framework

Dynamic positioning of marine craft refers to the use of the propulsion system to regulate the vessel position and heading. This type of motion control is commonly used in the offshore industry for surface vessels, and it is also used for some underwater vehicles. In this paper, we use a port-Hamiltonian framework to design a novel nonlinear set-point-regulation controller with integral action. The controller handles input saturation and guarantees internal stability, rejection of unknown constant disturbances, and (integral-)input-to-state stability.

Practical aspects of frequency-domain identification of dynamic models of marine structures from hydrodynamic data

The motion response of marine structures in waves can be studied using finite-dimensional linear-time-invariant approximating models. These models, obtained using system identification with data computed by hydrodynamic codes, find application in offshore training simulators, hardware-in-the-loop simulators for positioning control testing, and also in initial designs of wave-energy conversion devices. Different proposals have appeared in the literature to address the identification problem in both time and frequency domains, and recent work has highlighted the superiority of the frequency-domain methods. This paper summarises practical frequency-domain estimation algorithms that use constraints on model structure and parameters to refine the search of approximating parametric models. Practical issues associated with the identification are discussed, including the influence of radiation model accuracy in force-to-motion models, which are usually the ultimate modelling objective. The illustration examples in the paper are obtained using a freely available MATLAB toolbox developed by the authors, which implements the estimation algorithms described.

Hybrid frequency–time domain models for dynamic response analysis of marine structures

Time-domain models of marine structures based on frequency domain data are usually built upon the Cummins equation. This type of model is a vector integro-differential equation which involves convolution terms. These convolution terms are not convenient for analysis and design of motion control systems. In addition, these models are not efficient with respect to simulation time, and ease of implementation in standard simulation packages. For these reasons, different methods have been proposed in the literature as approximate alternative representations of the convolutions. Because the convolution is a linear operation, different approaches can be followed to obtain an approximately equivalent linear system in the form of either transfer function or state-space models. This process involves the use of system identification, and several options are available depending on how the identification problem is posed. This raises the question whether one method is better than the others. This paper therefore has three objectives. The first objective is to revisit some of the methods for replacing the convolutions, which have been reported in different areas of analysis of marine systems: hydrodynamics, wave energy conversion, and motion control systems. The second objective is to compare the different methods in terms of complexity and performance. For this purpose, a model for the response in the vertical plane of a modern containership is considered. The third objective is to describe the implementation of the resulting model in the standard simulation environment Matlab/Simulink.

Constrained predictive control of ship fin stabilizers to prevent dynamic stall

In moderate to high sea states, the effectiveness of ship fin stabilizers can severely deteriorate due to nonlinear effects arising from unsteady hydrodynamic characteristics of the fins: dynamic stall. These nonlinear effects take the form of a hysteresis, and they become very significant when the effective angle of attack of the fins exceeds a certain threshold angle. Dynamic stall can result in a complete loss of control action depending on how much the fins exceed the threshold angle. When this is detected, it is common to reduce the gain of the controller that commands the fins. This approach is cautious and tends to reduce performance when the conditions leading to dynamic stall disappear. An alternative approach for preventing the effects while keeping high performance, consists of estimating the effective angle of attack and set a conservative constraint on it as part of the control objectives. In this paper, we investigate the latter approach, and propose the use of a model predictive control (MPC) to prevent the development of these nonlinear effects by considering constraints on both the mechanical angle of the fins and the effective angle of attack.

Regulation and integral control of an underactuated robotic system using IDA-PBC with dynamic extension

This paper proposes a method for design of a set-point regulation controller with integral action for an underactuated robotic system. The robot is described as a port-Hamiltonian system, and the control design is based on a coordinate transformation and a dynamic extension. Both the change of coordinates and the dynamic extension add extra degrees of freedom that facilitate the solution of the matching equation associated with interconnection and damping assignment passivity-based control designs (IDA-PBC). The stability of the controlled system is proved using the closed loop Hamiltonian as a Lyapunov candidate function. The performance of the proposed controller is shown in simulation.

Study on dynamic system optimum assignment to establish marginal time equilibrium

Several analytical methods for Dynamic System Optimum (DSO) assignment have been proposed but they are basically classified into two kinds. This chapter attempts to establish DSO by equilbrating the path dynamic marginal time (DMT). The authors analyze the path DMT for a single path with tandem bottlenecks and showed that the path DMT is not the simple summation of DMT associated with each bottleneck along the path. Next, the authors examined the DMT of several paths passing through a common bottleneck. It is shown that the externality at the bottleneck is shared by the paths in proportion to their demand from the current time until the queue vanishes. This share of the externality is caused by the departure rate shift under first in first out (FIFO) and the externality propagates to the downstream bottlenecks. However, the externalities propagates to the downstream are calculated out if downstream bottlenecks exist. Therefore, the authors concluded that the path DMT can be evaluated without considering the propagation of the externalities, but just as in the evaluation of the path DMT for a single path passing through a series of bottlenecks between the origin and destination. Based on the DMT analysis, the authors finally proposed a heuristic solution algorithm and verified it by comparing the numerical solution with the analytical one.

Numerical investigation of mechanical and thermal dynamic properties of the industrial transformer

Industrial transformer is one of the most critical assets in the power and heavy industry. Failures of transformers can cause enormous losses. The poor joints of the electrical circuit on transformers can cause overheating and results in stress concentration on the structure which is the major cause of catastrophic failure. Few researches have been focused on the mechanical properties of industrial transformers under overheating thermal conditions. In this paper, both mechanical and thermal properties of industrial transformers are jointly investigated using Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Dynamic response analysis is conducted on a modified transformer FEA model, and the computational results are compared with experimental results from literature to validate this simulation model. Based on the FEA model, thermal stress is calculated under different temperature conditions. These analysis results can provide insights to the understanding of the failure of transformers due to overheating, therefore are significant to assess winding fault, especially to the manufacturing and maintenance of large transformers.

A meshfree-based local Galerkin method with condensation of degree of freedom for elastic dynamic analysis

Condensation technique of degree of freedom is first proposed to improve the computational efficiency of meshfree method with Galerkin weak form for elastic dynamic analysis. In the present method, scattered nodes without connectivity are divided into several subsets by cells with arbitrary shape. Local discrete equation is established over each cell by using moving Kriging interpolation, in which the nodes that located in the cell are used for approximation. Then local discrete equations can be simplified by condensation of degree of freedom, which transfers equations of inner nodes to equations of boundary nodes based on cells. The global dynamic system equations are obtained by assembling all local discrete equations and are solved by using the standard implicit Newmark’s time integration scheme. In the scheme of present method, the calculation of each cell is carried out by meshfree method, and local search is implemented in interpolation. Numerical examples show that the present method has high computational efficiency and good accuracy in solving elastic dynamic problems.

Dynamic changes in high and low mammographic density human breast tissues maintained in murine tissue engineering chambers during various murine peripartum states and over time

Mammographic density (MD) is a strong heritable risk factor for breast cancer, and may decrease with increasing parity. However, the biomolecular basis for MD-associated breast cancer remains unclear, and systemic hormonal effects on MD-associated risk is poorly understood. This study assessed the effect of murine peripartum states on high and low MD tissue maintained in a xenograft model of human MD. Method High and low MD human breast tissues were precisely sampled under radiographic guidance from prophylactic mastectomy specimens of women. The high and low MD tissues were maintained in separate vascularised biochambers in nulliparous or pregnant SCID mice for 4 weeks, or mice undergoing postpartum involution or lactation for three additional weeks. High and low MD biochamber material was harvested for histologic and radiographic comparisons during various murine peripartum states. High and low MD biochamber tissues in nulliparous mice were harvested at different timepoints for histologic and radiographic comparisons. Results High MD biochamber tissues had decreased stromal (p = 0.0027), increased adipose (p = 0.0003) and a trend to increased glandular tissue areas (p = 0.076) after murine postpartum involution. Stromal areas decreased (p = 0.042), while glandular (p = 0.001) and adipose areas (p = 0.009) increased in high MD biochamber tissues during lactation. A difference in radiographic density was observed in high (p = 0.0021) or low MD biochamber tissues (p = 0.004) between nulliparous, pregnant and involution groups. No differences in tissue composition were observed in high or low MD biochamber tissues maintained for different durations, although radiographic density increased over time. Conclusion High MD biochamber tissues had measurable histologic changes after postpartum involution or lactation. Alterations in radiographic density occurred in biochamber tissues between different peripartum states and over time. These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the human MD xenograft model, providing a platform for studying the biomolecular basis of MD-associated cancer risk. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.