Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

Subspace modelling for structured noise suppression

The problem of structured noise suppression is addressed by i)modelling the subspaces hosting the components of the signal conveying the information and ii)applying a nonlin- ear non-extensive technique for effecting the right separation. Although the approach is applicable to all situations satisfying the hypothesis of the proposed framework, this work is motivated by a particular scenario, namely, the cancellation of low frequency noise in broadband seismic signals.

Identification and analysis of moderator variables:investigating the customer satisfaction-loyalty link

Purpose – Research on the relationship between customer satisfaction and customer loyalty has advanced to a stage that requires a more thorough examination of moderator variables. Limited research shows how moderators influence the relationship between customer satisfaction and customer loyalty in a service context; this article aims to present empirical evidence of the conditions in which the satisfaction-loyalty relationship becomes stronger or weaker. Design/methodology/approach – Using a sample of more than 700 customers of DIY retailers and multi-group structural equation modelling, the authors examine moderating effects of several firm-related variables, variables that result from firm/employee-customer interactions and individual-level variables (i.e. loyalty cards, critical incidents, customer age, gender, income, expertise). Findings – The empirical results suggest that not all of the moderators considered influence the satisfaction-loyalty link. Specifically, critical incidents and income are important moderators of the relationship between customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. Practical implications – Several of the moderator variables considered in this study are manageable variables. Originality/value – This study should prove valuable to academic researchers as well as service and retailing managers. It systematically analyses the moderating effect of firm-related and individual-level variables on the relationship between customer satisfaction and loyalty. It shows the differential effect of different types of moderator variables on the satisfaction-loyalty link.

A modular holistic approach to prosody modelling for Standard Yorùbá speech synthesis

This paper presents a novel prosody model in the context of computer text-to-speech synthesis applications for tone languages. We have demonstrated its applicability using the Standard Yorùbá (SY) language. Our approach is motivated by the theory that abstract and realised forms of various prosody dimensions should be modelled within a modular and unified framework [Coleman, J.S., 1994. Polysyllabic words in the YorkTalk synthesis system. In: Keating, P.A. (Ed.), Phonological Structure and Forms: Papers in Laboratory Phonology III, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 293–324]. We have implemented this framework using the Relational Tree (R-Tree) technique. R-Tree is a sophisticated data structure for representing a multi-dimensional waveform in the form of a tree. The underlying assumption of this research is that it is possible to develop a practical prosody model by using appropriate computational tools and techniques which combine acoustic data with an encoding of the phonological and phonetic knowledge provided by experts. To implement the intonation dimension, fuzzy logic based rules were developed using speech data from native speakers of Yorùbá. The Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT) and the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) techniques were tested in modelling the duration dimension. For practical reasons, we have selected the FDT for implementing the duration dimension of our prosody model. To establish the effectiveness of our prosody model, we have also developed a Stem-ML prosody model for SY. We have performed both quantitative and qualitative evaluations on our implemented prosody models. The results suggest that, although the R-Tree model does not predict the numerical speech prosody data as accurately as the Stem-ML model, it produces synthetic speech prosody with better intelligibility and naturalness. The R-Tree model is particularly suitable for speech prosody modelling for languages with limited language resources and expertise, e.g. African languages. Furthermore, the R-Tree model is easy to implement, interpret and analyse.

The effect of corruption on FDI:a parametric and non-parametric analysis

This paper analyses the effect of corruption on Multinational Enterprises' (MNEs) incentives to undertake FDI in a particular country. We contribute to the existing literature by modelling the relationship between corruption and FDI using both parametric and non-parametric methods. We report that the impact of corruption on FDI stock is different for the different quantiles of the FDI stock distribution. This is a characteristic that could not be captured in previous studies which used only parametric methods. After controlling for the location selection process of MNEs and other host country characteristics, the result from both parametric and non-parametric analyses offer some support for the ‘helping-hand’ role of corruption.

Building belief in organizational learning: the role of organizational learning efficacy

There appears to be a missing dimension in OL literature to embrace the collective experience of emotion, both within groups and communities and also across the organization as a whole. The concept of OL efficacy- as a stimulus offering energy and direction for learning - remains unexplored. This research involved engaging with a company we have called ‘Electroco’ in depth to create a rich and nuanced representation of OL and members’ perceptions of OL over an extended time-frame (five years). We drew upon grounded theory research methodology (Locke, 2001), to elicit feedback from the organization, which was then used to inform future research plans and/ or refine emerging ideas. The concept of OL efficacy gradually emerged as a factor to be considered when exploring the relationship between individual learning and OL. . Bearing in mind Bandura’s (1982) conceptualization of self-efficacy (linked with mastery, modelling, verbal persuasion and emotional arousal), we developed a coding strategy encompassing these four factors as conceptualized at the organizational level. We added a fifth factor: ‘control of OL.’ We focused on feelings across the organization and the extent of consensus or otherwise around these five attributes. The construct has potential significance for how people are managed in many ways. Not only is OL efficacy is difficult for competitors to copy (arising as it does from the collective experience of working within a specific context); the self-efficacy concept suggests that success can be engineered with ‘small wins’ to reinforce mastery perceptions. Leaders can signal the importance of interaction with the external context, and encourage reflection on the strategies adopted by competitors or benchmark organizations (modelling). The theory also underlines the key role managers may play in persuading others about their organization’s propensity to learn (by focusing on success stories, for example). Research is set to continue within other sectors, including the high-performance financial service sector as well as the health-care technology sector.

Using architecture models to support the generation and operation of component-based adaptive systems

Modelling architectural information is particularly important because of the acknowledged crucial role of software architecture in raising the level of abstraction during development. In the MDE area, the level of abstraction of models has frequently been related to low-level design concepts. However, model-driven techniques can be further exploited to model software artefacts that take into account the architecture of the system and its changes according to variations of the environment. In this paper, we propose model-driven techniques and dynamic variability as concepts useful for modelling the dynamic fluctuation of the environment and its impact on the architecture. Using the mappings from the models to implementation, generative techniques allow the (semi) automatic generation of artefacts making the process more efficient and promoting software reuse. The automatic generation of configurations and reconfigurations from models provides the basis for safer execution. The architectural perspective offered by the models shift focus away from implementation details to the whole view of the system and its runtime change promoting high-level analysis. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Causal relationship between HRM policies and organisational performance:evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector

Blending insights from the contingency theory, the resource-based view, and the AMO theory, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the HRM-performance causal relationship in the Greek context. The empirical research is based on a sample of 178 organisations operating in the Greek manufacturing sector. Using structural equation modelling the results of the study revealed that the ability to perform (resourcing and development), motivation to perform (compensation and incentives), and opportunity to perform (involvement and job design) HRM policy domains are moderated by business strategies (cost, quality, innovation), and additionally, the motivation to perform is further moderated by managerial style and organisational culture. Further, the results indicate that the impact of HRM policies on organisational performance is fully mediated by employee skills, attitudes, and behaviour. The paper concludes that although the motivation to perform HRM policy domain causes organisational performance, through employee attitudes, it may be supported that organisational performance positively moderates the effectiveness of this HRM policy domain, raising thus the question of reverse causality.

A Cauchy Integral Related to a Robot-safety Device System

We introduce a robot-safety device system attended by two different repairmen. The twin system is characterized by the natural feature of cold standby and by an admissible “risky” state. In order to analyse the random behaviour of the entire system (robot, safety device, repair facility) we employ a stochastic process endowed with probability measures satisfying general Hokstad-type differential equations. The solution procedure is based on the theory of sectionally holomorphic functions, characterized by a Cauchy-type integral defined as a Cauchy principal value in double sense. An application of the Sokhotski-Plemelj formulae determines the long-run availability of the robot-safety device. Finally, we consider the particular but important case of deterministic repair.

Planning of Intellectual Robot Actions in Real Time

In article the mathematical model of the mobile robot actions planning at recognition of situations in extreme conditions of functioning is offered. The purpose of work is reduced to formation of a concrete plan of the robot actions by extrapolation of a situation and its concrete definition with the account a priori unpredictable features of current conditions.

Crump-Mode-Jagers Branching Process: Modelling and Application for Human Population

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J85, 92D25.

Pénzgazdálkodási szokások hatása a működőtőkére (The effect of financial management habits on operating capital. The example of the Hungarian Post Office)

A hálózatos iparágakban, ahogy a postai szolgáltatásoknál is, a forgalomban lévő készpénz nagyméretű működőtőkét jelenthet. A Magyar Posta a levél- és csomagkézbesítésen kívül jelentős készpénzforgalmat bonyolít le: nyugdíjakat, segélyeket és készpénz-átutalási megbízásokat továbbít. A forgalom napi ingadozása a vállalat likvideszköz-igényét jelentősen meghatározza. A posta esetében a postahivatalok készpénzgazdálkodása jól működő hüvelykujjszabályokon keresztül történik, ezek a szabályok döntési teret hagynak a hálózat heterogén egyedi szereplőinek. Az egyedi készletezési viselkedést a vállalati működőtőke meghatározásakor figyelembe kell venni. A tanulmány az egyedi készletezési szokások modellezésére új módszertant ajánl, majd a viselkedésmintákat csoportosítva a pénzkészletezésnek, a vállalati működőtőke szintjének és a vállalati likviditási pozíciónak a kapcsolatát elemzi. / === / The cash in circulation within network industries such as post-office services can repre-sent a sizeable quantity of operating capital. The Hungarian Post Office, besides han-dling mail, handles a significant amount of cash turnover, forwarding pensions, welfare benefits, and cash orders. Fluctuation in the daily volume of these is a strong factor in determining the company's liquidity requirements. The management of cash in post of-fices is governed by rules of thumb that operate well; the regulations leave decision-making scope for the diverse individual actors in the network. Attention has to be paid to individual cash holding when determining the corporate operating capital. The study suggests a new methodology for modelling the individual cash-holding habits, and goes on to group the behaviour patterns by analysing the connection between cash holding, level of corporate operating capital, and corporate liquidity position.

Methods of modeling the future shift of the so called Moesz-line

It is important to the landscape architects to become acquainted with the results of the regional climate models so they can adapt to the warmer and more arid future climate. Modelling the potential distribution area of certain plants, which was the theme of our former research, can be a convenient method to visualize the effects of the climate change. A similar but slightly better method is modelling the Moesz-line, which gives information on distribution and usability of numerous plants simultaneously. Our aim is to display the results on maps and compare the different modelling methods (Line modelling, Distribution modelling, Isotherm modelling). The results are spectacular and meet our expectations: according to two of the three tested methods the Moesz-line will shift from South Slovakia to Central Poland in the next 60 years.

Application of intervention analysis to evaluate the impacts of special events on freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

On the Development of an Automated Design Procedure to Design Optimal Robots

The objective in this work is to build a rapid and automated numerical design method that makes optimal design of robots possible. In this work, two classes of optimal robot design problems were specifically addressed: (1) When the objective is to optimize a pre-designed robot, and (2) when the goal is to design an optimal robot from scratch. In the first case, to reach the optimum design some of the critical dimensions or specific measures to optimize (design parameters) are varied within an established range. Then the stress is calculated as a function of the design parameter(s), the design parameter(s) that optimizes a pre-determined performance index provides the optimum design. In the second case, this work focuses on the development of an automated procedure for the optimal design of robotic systems. For this purpose, Pro/Engineer© and MatLab© software packages are integrated to draw the robot parts, optimize them, and then re-draw the optimal system parts.