Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs

In this paper we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large timevarying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). To overcome computational constraints with likelihood-based estimation of large systems, we rely on Kalman filter estimation with forgetting factors. We also draw on ideas from the dynamic model averaging literature and extend the TVP-VAR so that its dimension can change over time. A final extension lies in the development of a new method for estimating, in a time-varying manner, the parameter(s) of the shrinkage priors commonly-used with large VARs. These extensions are operationalized through the use of forgetting factor methods and are, thus, computationally simple. An empirical application involving forecasting inflation, real output, and interest rates demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of our approach.

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) invasion effects on Mediterranean forests’ trophic web: blue tit (Parus caeruleus) reproduction and development

Les invasions biològiques representen una greu amenaça per al funcionament dels ecosistemes i per a la preservació de la biodiversitat.. La formiga argentina (Linepithema humile) està considerada com una de les 100 espècies invasores més nocives. Prospera en extenses àrees de clima mediterrani de regions temperades i subtropicals de tots els continents amb l’excepció de l’Antàrtida. És una formiga dominant i una competidora agressiva que mitjançant múltiples mecanismes, des de predació directe a competència, produeix efectes negatius en una amplia varietat de taxons, principalment formigues i altres artròpodes, però també vertebrats. S’ha investigat, per primera vegada, els efectes de la formiga invasiva sobre les comunitats d’artròpodes de fullatge i com aquestes pertorbacions es transmeten en la xarxa tròfica del bosc esclerofil•le mediterrani. En les suredes estudiades la invasió de formiga argentina és causa directe de la extinció local de la gran majoria de poblacions de formigues natives. En el període mostrejat s’han constatat també impactes negatius en la diversitat i en l’abundància d’artròpodes natius en les capçades dels arbres, particularment d’erugues. Una avaluació preliminar basada únicament amb dades del 2005 indica que, reduint la disponibilitat d’erugues, la formiga argentina empobreix l’hàbitat reproductiu de la mallerenga blava (Parus caeruleus). La mallerenga blava basa la dieta insectívora estricte de la seva pollada fonamentalment en les erugues. No hem detectat impactes en l’èxit reproductiu de les mallerengues blaves en zones envaïdes. Els polls crescuts en àrees envaïdes assoleixen una condició física similar als de les zones no envaïdes, però la reducció en la disponibilitat d’erugues associada a la invasió de formiga argentina es tradueix en un creixement descompassat i en una menor mida estructural del polls volanders. Així, les pertorbacions en la comunitat d’artròpodes associades a la invasió de la formiga argentina promouen efectes bottom-up que acaben perjudicant el desenvolupament dels polls de mallerenga blava.

Large Bayesian VARMAs

Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models have many theoretical properties which should make them popular among empirical macroeconomists. However, they are rarely used in practice due to over-parameterization concerns, difficulties in ensuring identification and computational challenges. With the growing interest in multivariate time series models of high dimension, these problems with VARMAs become even more acute, accounting for the dominance of VARs in this field. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach for inference in VARMAs which surmounts these problems. It jointly ensures identification and parsimony in the context of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We use this approach in a macroeconomic application involving up to twelve dependent variables. We find our algorithm to work successfully and provide insights beyond those provided by VARs.

Recurrent loss of heterozygosity in 1p36 associated with TNFRSF14 mutations in IRF4 translocation negative pediatric follicular lymphomas.

Pediatric follicular lymphoma is a rare disease that differs genetically and clinically from its adult counterpart. With the exception of pediatric follicular lymphoma with IRF4-translocation, the genetic events associated with these lymphomas have not yet been defined. We applied array-comparative genomic hybridization and molecular inversion probe assay analyses to formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues from 18 patients aged 18 years and under with IRF4 translocation negative follicular lymphoma. All evaluable cases lacked t(14;18). Only 6 of 16 evaluable cases displayed chromosomal imbalances with gains or amplifications of 6pter-p24.3 (including IRF4) and deletion and copy number neutral-loss of heterozygosity in 1p36 (including TNFRSF14) being most frequent. Sequencing of TNFRSF14 located in the minimal region of loss in 1p36.32 showed nine mutations in 7 cases from our series. Two subsets of pediatric follicular lymphoma were delineated according to the presence of molecular alterations, one with genomic aberrations associated with higher grade and/or diffuse large B-cell lymphoma component and more widespread disease, and another one lacking genetic alterations associated with more limited disease.

Versatile gene-specific sequence tags for Arabidopsis functional genomics: transcript profiling and reverse genetics applications.

Microarray transcript profiling and RNA interference are two new technologies crucial for large-scale gene function studies in multicellular eukaryotes. Both rely on sequence-specific hybridization between complementary nucleic acid strands, inciting us to create a collection of gene-specific sequence tags (GSTs) representing at least 21,500 Arabidopsis genes and which are compatible with both approaches. The GSTs were carefully selected to ensure that each of them shared no significant similarity with any other region in the Arabidopsis genome. They were synthesized by PCR amplification from genomic DNA. Spotted microarrays fabricated from the GSTs show good dynamic range, specificity, and sensitivity in transcript profiling experiments. The GSTs have also been transferred to bacterial plasmid vectors via recombinational cloning protocols. These cloned GSTs constitute the ideal starting point for a variety of functional approaches, including reverse genetics. We have subcloned GSTs on a large scale into vectors designed for gene silencing in plant cells. We show that in planta expression of GST hairpin RNA results in the expected phenotypes in silenced Arabidopsis lines. These versatile GST resources provide novel and powerful tools for functional genomics.

Large-scale imatinib dose-concentration-effect study in CML patients under routine care conditions.

This observational study analyzed imatinib pharmacokinetics and response in 2478 chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients. Data were obtained through centralized therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) at median treatment duration of ≥2 years. First, individual initial trough concentrations under 400mg/day imatinib starting dose were estimated. Second, their correlation (C^min(400mg)) with reported treatment response was verified. Low imatinib levels were predicted in young male patients and those receiving P-gp/CYP3A4 inducers. These patients had also lower response rates (7% lower 18-months MMR in male, 17% lower 1-year CCyR in young patients, Kaplan-Meier estimates). Time-point independent multivariate regression confirmed a correlation of individual C^min(400mg) with response and adverse events. Possibly due to confounding factors (e.g. dose modifications, patient selection bias), the relationship seemed however flatter than previously reported from prospective controlled studies. Nonetheless, these observational results strongly suggest that a subgroup of patients could benefit from early dosage optimization assisted by TDM, because of lower imatinib concentrations and lower response rates.

Superinfection with drug-resistant HIV is rare and does not contribute substantially to therapy failure in a large European cohort.

BACKGROUND: Superinfection with drug resistant HIV strains could potentially contribute to compromised therapy in patients initially infected with drug-sensitive virus and receiving antiretroviral therapy. To investigate the importance of this potential route to drug resistance, we developed a bioinformatics pipeline to detect superinfection from routinely collected genotyping data, and assessed whether superinfection contributed to increased drug resistance in a large European cohort of viremic, drug treated patients. METHODS: We used sequence data from routine genotypic tests spanning the protease and partial reverse transcriptase regions in the Virolab and EuResist databases that collated data from five European countries. Superinfection was indicated when sequences of a patient failed to cluster together in phylogenetic trees constructed with selected sets of control sequences. A subset of the indicated cases was validated by re-sequencing pol and env regions from the original samples. RESULTS: 4425 patients had at least two sequences in the database, with a total of 13816 distinct sequence entries (of which 86% belonged to subtype B). We identified 107 patients with phylogenetic evidence for superinfection. In 14 of these cases, we analyzed newly amplified sequences from the original samples for validation purposes: only 2 cases were verified as superinfections in the repeated analyses, the other 12 cases turned out to involve sample or sequence misidentification. Resistance to drugs used at the time of strain replacement did not change in these two patients. A third case could not be validated by re-sequencing, but was supported as superinfection by an intermediate sequence with high degenerate base pair count within the time frame of strain switching. Drug resistance increased in this single patient. CONCLUSIONS: Routine genotyping data are informative for the detection of HIV superinfection; however, most cases of non-monophyletic clustering in patient phylogenies arise from sample or sequence mix-up rather than from superinfection, which emphasizes the importance of validation. Non-transient superinfection was rare in our mainly treatment experienced cohort, and we found a single case of possible transmitted drug resistance by this route. We therefore conclude that in our large cohort, superinfection with drug resistant HIV did not compromise the efficiency of antiretroviral treatment.

Dynamical modeling and analysis of large cellular regulatory networks.

The dynamical analysis of large biological regulatory networks requires the development of scalable methods for mathematical modeling. Following the approach initially introduced by Thomas, we formalize the interactions between the components of a network in terms of discrete variables, functions, and parameters. Model simulations result in directed graphs, called state transition graphs. We are particularly interested in reachability properties and asymptotic behaviors, which correspond to terminal strongly connected components (or "attractors") in the state transition graph. A well-known problem is the exponential increase of the size of state transition graphs with the number of network components, in particular when using the biologically realistic asynchronous updating assumption. To address this problem, we have developed several complementary methods enabling the analysis of the behavior of large and complex logical models: (i) the definition of transition priority classes to simplify the dynamics; (ii) a model reduction method preserving essential dynamical properties, (iii) a novel algorithm to compact state transition graphs and directly generate compressed representations, emphasizing relevant transient and asymptotic dynamical properties. The power of an approach combining these different methods is demonstrated by applying them to a recent multilevel logical model for the network controlling CD4+ T helper cell response to antigen presentation and to a dozen cytokines. This model accounts for the differentiation of canonical Th1 and Th2 lymphocytes, as well as of inflammatory Th17 and regulatory T cells, along with many hybrid subtypes. All these methods have been implemented into the software GINsim, which enables the definition, the analysis, and the simulation of logical regulatory graphs.

Research needs in allergy: an EAACI position paper, in collaboration with EFA.

In less than half a century, allergy, originally perceived as a rare disease, has become a major public health threat, today affecting the lives of more than 60 million people in Europe, and probably close to one billion worldwide, thereby heavily impacting the budgets of public health systems. More disturbingly, its prevalence and impact are on the rise, a development that has been associated with environmental and lifestyle changes accompanying the continuous process of urbanization and globalization. Therefore, there is an urgent need to prioritize and concert research efforts in the field of allergy, in order to achieve sustainable results on prevention, diagnosis and treatment of this most prevalent chronic disease of the 21st century.The European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI) is the leading professional organization in the field of allergy, promoting excellence in clinical care, education, training and basic and translational research, all with the ultimate goal of improving the health of allergic patients. The European Federation of Allergy and Airways Diseases Patients' Associations (EFA) is a non-profit network of allergy, asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disorder (COPD) patients' organizations. In support of their missions, the present EAACI Position Paper, in collaboration with EFA, highlights the most important research needs in the field of allergy to serve as key recommendations for future research funding at the national and European levels.Although allergies may involve almost every organ of the body and an array of diverse external factors act as triggers, there are several common themes that need to be prioritized in research efforts. As in many other chronic diseases, effective prevention, curative treatment and accurate, rapid diagnosis represent major unmet needs. Detailed phenotyping/endotyping stands out as widely required in order to arrange or re-categorize clinical syndromes into more coherent, uniform and treatment-responsive groups. Research efforts to unveil the basic pathophysiologic pathways and mechanisms, thus leading to the comprehension and resolution of the pathophysiologic complexity of allergies will allow for the design of novel patient-oriented diagnostic and treatment protocols. Several allergic diseases require well-controlled epidemiological description and surveillance, using disease registries, pharmacoeconomic evaluation, as well as large biobanks. Additionally, there is a need for extensive studies to bring promising new biotechnological innovations, such as biological agents, vaccines of modified allergen molecules and engineered components for allergy diagnosis, closer to clinical practice. Finally, particular attention should be paid to the difficult-to-manage, precarious and costly severe disease forms and/or exacerbations. Nonetheless, currently arising treatments, mainly in the fields of immunotherapy and biologicals, hold great promise for targeted and causal management of allergic conditions. Active involvement of all stakeholders, including Patient Organizations and policy makers are necessary to achieve the aims emphasized herein.

Large multi-gene phylogenetic trees of the grasses (Poaceae): progress towards complete tribal and generic level sampling.

In this paper we included a very broad representation of grass family diversity (84% of tribes and 42% of genera). Phylogenetic inference was based on three plastid DNA regions rbcL, matK and trnL-F, using maximum parsimony and Bayesian methods. Our results resolved most of the subfamily relationships within the major clades (BEP and PACCMAD), which had previously been unclear, such as, among others the: (i) BEP and PACCMAD sister relationship, (ii) composition of clades and the sister-relationship of Ehrhartoideae and Bambusoideae + Pooideae, (iii) paraphyly of tribe Bambuseae, (iv) position of Gynerium as sister to Panicoideae, (v) phylogenetic position of Micrairoideae. With the presence of a relatively large amount of missing data, we were able to increase taxon sampling substantially in our analyses from 107 to 295 taxa. However, bootstrap support and to a lesser extent Bayesian inference posterior probabilities were generally lower in analyses involving missing data than those not including them. We produced a fully resolved phylogenetic summary tree for the grass family at subfamily level and indicated the most likely relationships of all included tribes in our analysis.

Why are slip lengths so large in carbon nanotubes?

The enhanced flow in carbon nanotubes is explained using a mathematical model that includes a depletion layer with reduced viscosity near the wall. In the limit of large tubes the model predicts no noticeable enhancement. For smaller tubes the model predicts enhancement that increases as the radius decreases. An analogy between the reduced viscosity and slip-length models shows that the term slip-length is misleading and that on surfaces which are smooth at the nanoscale it may be thought of as a length-scale associated with the size of the depletion region and viscosity ratio. The model therefore provides a physical interpretation of the classical Navier slip condition and explains why `slip-lengths' may be greater than the tube radius.

Serrated polyps of the large intestine: a molecular study comparing sessile serrated adenomas and hyperplastic polyps.

AIMS: To compare the molecular profile of a series of sessile serrated adenomas (SSAs) and hyperplastic polyps (HPs), in order to distinguish these lesions, SSAs having a potential role in the genesis of serrated adenocarcinomas through a serrated pathway in which methylation plays a key role. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twelve HPs and sixteen SSAs of the right and left colon were investigated for microsatellite instability, DNA mismatch repair genes, p53, p16, and beta-catenin expression, MLH1 and p16 (CDKN2A) gene methylation, and KRAS and BRAF mutations. Both SSAs and HPs were microsatellite stable. MLH1 and MSH2 protein silencing, aberrant cytoplasmic expression and methylation of p16 were found to be exclusive to right-sided SSAs. The MLH1 promoter gene was frequently methylated in right-sided SSAs in contrast with HPs. Abnormal p53 and beta-catenin expression was present in both SSAs and HPs. BRAF and KRAS mutation were mutually exclusive, but KRAS mutation was present only in left-sided SSAs and HPs. CONCLUSIONS: HPs and SSAs may be related lesions. However, at least right-sided SSAs differ from left-sided SSAs and HPs in the occurrence of MLH1 and p16 methylation, supporting the hypothesis that SSAs could be precursors of serrated adenocarcinomas.

Clinical and genetic findings in a large cohort of patients with congenital myopathies due to mutations in the skeletal muscle ryanodine receptor (RYR1) gene

RYR1 mutations are the most common cause of structural congenital myopathies and may exhibit both dominant and recessive inheritance. Histopathological findings are variable and include central cores, multi-minicores, type 1 predominance/ uniformity, fibre type disproportion, increased internal nucleation and fatty and connective tissue. Until recently, diagnostic RYR1 sequencing was limited to mutational hotspots due to the large size of the gene. Since the introduction of full RYR1 sequencing in 2007 we have detected pathogenic mutations in 77 families: 39 had dominant inheritance and 38 recessive inheritance. In some cases with presumably recessive inheritance, only one heterozygous mutation inherited from an asymptomatic parent was identified. Of 28 dominant mutations, 6 were novel; 37 of the 59 recessive mutations were also novel. Dominant mutations were more frequently in recognized hotspot regions, while recessive mutations were distributed throughout the coding sequence. Dominant mutations were predominantly missense, whereas recessive mutations included many nonsense and splice mutations expected to result in reduced RyR1 protein. There was wide clinical variability in patients with both dominant and recessive inheritance. As a group, those with dominant mutations were generally more mildly affected than those with recessive inheritance, who had earlier onset and were weaker with more functional limitations. Extraocular muscle involvement was almost exclusively observed in the recessive group. Bulbar involvement was also more prominent in this group, resulting in a larger number requiring gastrostomy insertion. In conclusion, genomic sequencing of the entire RYR1 leads to the detection of many novel mutations, but may miss large genetic rearrangements in some cases. Assigning pathogenicity to novel mutations is often difficult and interpretation of genetic results in the context of clinical, histological and, increasingly, muscle MRI findings is essential.