Equivalence of the Peleg, Pilosof and Singh-Kulshrestha models for water absorption in food

The similarity between the Peleg, Pilosof –Boquet–Batholomai and Singh–Kulshrestha models was investigated using the hydration behaviours of whey protein concentrate, wheat starch and whey protein isolate at 30 °C in 100% relative humidity. The three models were shown to be mathematically the same within experimental variations, and they yielded parameters that are related. The models, in their linear and original forms, were suitable (r2 > 0.98) in describing the sorption behaviours of the samples, and are sensitive to the length of the sorption segment used in the computation. The whey proteins absorbed more moisture than the wheat starch, and the isolate exhibited a higher sorptive ability than the concentrate.

Changes in social identity when joining a new group: The role of individual-level and group-level adaptation processes

While classic intergroup theories have specified the processes explaining situational shifts in social identification, the processes whereby social identities change more profoundly and become integrated within the self have to be proposed. To this aim, the present studies investigate the processes by which group members integrate a new social identity as they are joining a new group. Combining a social identity approach and stress and coping models, this research tests if social factors (i.e., needs satisfied by fellow group members, social support), have an impact on the adaptation strategies group members use to deal with the novelty of the situation and to fit into their new group (seeking information & adopting group norms vs. disengaging). These strategies, in turn, should predict changes in level of identification with the new social group over time, as well as enhanced psychological adjustment. These associations are tested among university students over the course of their first academic year (Study 1), and among online gamers joining a newly established online community (Study 2). Path analyses provide support for the hypothesised associations. The results are discussed in light of recent theoretical developments pertaining to intraindividual changes in social identities and their integration in the self.

A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Techniques to improve forecasting models: applications to energy demand and price

This thesis is a study of three techniques to improve performance of some standard fore-casting models, application to the energy demand and prices. We focus on forecasting demand and price one-day ahead. First, the wavelet transform was used as a pre-processing procedure with two approaches: multicomponent-forecasts and direct-forecasts. We have empirically compared these approaches and found that the former consistently outperformed the latter. Second, adaptive models were introduced to continuously update model parameters in the testing period by combining ?lters with standard forecasting methods. Among these adaptive models, the adaptive LR-GARCH model was proposed for the fi?rst time in the thesis. Third, with regard to noise distributions of the dependent variables in the forecasting models, we used either Gaussian or Student-t distributions. This thesis proposed a novel algorithm to infer parameters of Student-t noise models. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to the non-linear multilayer perceptron. Therefore, the proposed method broadens the range of models that can use a Student-t noise distribution. Because these techniques cannot stand alone, they must be combined with prediction models to improve their performance. We combined these techniques with some standard forecasting models: multilayer perceptron, radial basis functions, linear regression, and linear regression with GARCH. These techniques and forecasting models were applied to two datasets from the UK energy markets: daily electricity demand (which is stationary) and gas forward prices (non-stationary). The results showed that these techniques provided good improvement to prediction performance.

Aspects of the design and control of manufacturing systems subject to demand uncertainty

The recent explosive growth in advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) and continued development of sophisticated information technologies (IT) is expected to have a profound effect on the way we design and operate manufacturing businesses. Furthermore, the escalating capital requirements associated with these developments have significantly increased the level of risk associated with initial design, ongoing development and operation. This dissertation has examined the integration of two key sub-elements of the Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) system, namely the manufacturing facility and the production control system. This research has concentrated on the interactions between production control (MRP) and an AMT based production facility. The disappointing performance of such systems has been discussed in the context of a number of potential technological and performance incompatibilities between these two elements. It was argued that the design and selection of operating policies for both is the key to successful integration. Furthermore, policy decisions are shown to play an important role in matching the performance of the total system to the demands of the marketplace. It is demonstrated that a holistic approach to policy design must be adopted if successful integration is to be achieved. It is shown that the complexity of the issues resulting from such an approach required the formulation of a structured design methodology. Such a methodology was subsequently developed and discussed. This combined a first principles approach to the behaviour of system elements with the specification of a detailed holistic model for use in the policy design environment. The methodology aimed to make full use of the `low inertia' characteristics of AMT, whilst adopting a JIT configuration of MRP and re-coupling the total system to the market demands. This dissertation discussed the application of the methodology to an industrial case study and the subsequent design of operational policies. Consequently a novel approach to production control resulted. A central feature of which was a move toward reduced manual intervention in the MRP processing and scheduling logic with increased human involvement and motivation in the management of work-flow on the shopfloor. Experimental results indicated that significant performance advantages would result from the adoption of the recommended policy set.

Computer-assisted production scheduling, planning and control in foundries

The present study describes a pragmatic approach to the implementation of production planning and scheduling techniques in foundries of all types and looks at the use of `state-of-the-art' management control and information systems. Following a review of systems for the classification of manufacturing companies, a definitive statement is made which highlights the important differences between foundries (i.e. `component makers') and other manufacturing companies (i.e. `component buyers'). An investigation of the manual procedures which are used to plan and control the manufacture of components reveals the inherent problems facing foundry production management staff, which suggests the unsuitability of many manufacturing techniques which have been applied to general engineering companies. From the literature it was discovered that computer-assisted systems are required which are primarily `information-based' rather than `decision based', whilst the availability of low-cost computers and `packaged-software' has enabled foundries to `get their feet wet' without the financial penalties which characterized many of the early attempts at computer-assistance (i.e. pre-1980). Moreover, no evidence of a single methodology for foundry scheduling emerged from the review. A philosophy for the development of a CAPM system is presented, which details the essential information requirements and puts forward proposals for the subsequent interactions between types of information and the sub-system of CAPM which they support. The work developed was oriented specifically at the functions of production planning and scheduling and introduces the concept of `manual interaction' for effective scheduling. The techniques developed were designed to use the information which is readily available in foundries and were found to be practically successful following the implementation of the techniques into a wide variety of foundries. The limitations of the techniques developed are subsequently discussed within the wider issues which form a CAPM system, prior to a presentation of the conclusions which can be drawn from the study.

GIS linked environmental process models

In recent years there has been a great effort to combine the technologies and techniques of GIS and process models. This project examines the issues of linking a standard current generation 2½d GIS with several existing model codes. The focus for the project has been the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme, which is being developed to augment flow in the River Severn during drought periods by pumping water from the Shropshire Aquifer. Previous authors have demonstrated that under certain circumstances pumping could reduce the soil moisture available for crops. This project follows earlier work at Aston in which the effects of drawdown were delineated and quantified through the development of a software package that implemented a technique which brought together the significant spatially varying parameters. This technique is repeated here, but using a standard GIS called GRASS. The GIS proved adequate for the task and the added functionality provided by the general purpose GIS - the data capture, manipulation and visualisation facilities - were of great benefit. The bulk of the project is concerned with examining the issues of the linkage of GIS and environmental process models. To this end a groundwater model (Modflow) and a soil moisture model (SWMS2D) were linked to the GIS and a crop model was implemented within the GIS. A loose-linked approach was adopted and secondary and surrogate data were used wherever possible. The implications of which relate to; justification of a loose-linked versus a closely integrated approach; how, technically, to achieve the linkage; how to reconcile the different data models used by the GIS and the process models; control of the movement of data between models of environmental subsystems, to model the total system; the advantages and disadvantages of using a current generation GIS as a medium for linking environmental process models; generation of input data, including the use of geostatistic, stochastic simulation, remote sensing, regression equations and mapped data; issues of accuracy, uncertainty and simply providing adequate data for the complex models; how such a modelling system fits into an organisational framework.

Development of an integrated reverse osmosis-greenhouse system driven by solar photovoltaic generators

The development of a system that integrates reverse osmosis (RO) with a horticultural greenhouse has been advanced through laboratory experiments. In this concept, intended for the inland desalination of brackish groundwater in dry areas, the RO concentrate will be reduced in volume by passing it through the evaporative cooling pads of the greenhouse. The system will be powered by solar photovoltaics (PV). Using a solar array simulator, we have verified that the RO can operate with varying power input and recovery rates to meet the water demands for irrigation and cooling of a greenhouse in north-west India. Cooling requires ventilation by a fan which has also been built, tested and optimised with a PV module outdoors. Results from the experiments with these two subsystems (RO and fan) are compared to theoretical predictions to reach conclusions about energy usage, sizing and cost. For example, the optimal sizing for the RO system is 0.12–1.3 m2 of PV module per m2 of membrane, depending on feed salinity. For the fan, the PV module area equals that of the fan aperture. The fan consumes <30 J of electrical energy per m3 of air moved which is 3 times less than that of standard fans. The specific energy consumption of the RO, at 1–2.3 kWh ?m-3, is comparable to that reported by others. Now that the subsystems have been verifi ed, the next step will be to integrate and test the whole system in the field.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

Forecasting the UK/US exchange rate with divisia monetary models and neural networks

This paper compares the UK/US exchange rate forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models based on monetary fundamentals, to a random walk (RW) model. Structural breaks are identified and taken into account. The exchange rate forecasting framework is also used for assessing the relative merits of the official Simple Sum and the weighted Divisia measures of money. Overall, there are four main findings. First, the majority of the models with fundamentals are able to beat the RW model in forecasting the UK/US exchange rate. Second, the most accurate forecasts of the UK/US exchange rate are obtained with a nonlinear model. Third, taking into account structural breaks reveals that the Divisia aggregate performs better than its Simple Sum counterpart. Finally, Divisia-based models provide more accurate forecasts than Simple Sum-based models provided they are constructed within a nonlinear framework.

New career models in UK professional service firms:from up-or-out to up-and-going-nowhere?

In this paper, we empirically examine how professional service firms are adapting their promotion and career models to new market and institutional pressures, without losing the benefits of the traditional up-or-out tournament. Based on an in-depth qualitative study of 10 large UK based law firms we find that most of these firms do not have a formal up-or-out policy but that the up-or-out rule operates in practice. We also find that most firms have introduced alternative roles and a novel career policy that offers a holistic learning and development deal to associates without any expectation that unsuccessful candidates for promotion to partner should quit the firm. While this policy and the new roles formally contradict the principle of up-or-out by creating permanent non-partner positions, in practice they coexist. We conclude that the motivational power of the up-or-out tournament remains intact, notwithstanding the changes to the internal labour market structure of these professional service firms.

An interdisciplinary approach to designing and evaluating a hybrid solar-biomass power plant

Purpose: Energy security is a major concern for India and many rural areas remain un-electrified. Thus, innovations in sustainable technologies to provide energy services are required. Biomass and solar energy in particular are resources that are widely available and underutilised in India. This paper aims to provide an overview of a methodology that was developed for designing and assessing the feasibility of a hybrid solar-biomass power plant in Gujarat. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology described is a combination of engineering and business management studies used to evaluate and design solar thermal collectors for specific applications and locations. For the scenario of a hybrid plant, the methodology involved: the analytical hierarchy process, for solar thermal technology selection; a cost-exergy approach, for design optimisation; quality function deployment, for designing and evaluating a novel collector - termed the elevation linear Fresnel reflector (ELFR); and case study simulations, for analysing alternative hybrid plant configurations. Findings: The paper recommended that for a hybrid plant in Gujarat, a linear Fresnel reflector of 14,000 m2 aperture is integrated with a 3 tonne per hour biomass boiler, generating 815 MWh per annum of electricity for nearby villages and 12,450 tonnes of ice per annum for local fisheries and food industries. However, at the expense of a 0.3 ¢/kWh increase in levelised energy costs, the ELFR can increase savings of biomass (100 t/a) and land (9 ha/a). Research limitations/implications: The research reviewed in this paper is primarily theoretical and further work will need to be undertaken to specify plant details such as piping layout, pump sizing and structure, and assess plant performance during real operational conditions. Originality/value: The paper considers the methodology adopted proved to be a powerful tool for integrating technology selection, optimisation, design and evaluation and promotes interdisciplinary methods for improving sustainable engineering design and energy management. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

A decision support system for supplier selection and order allocation in stochastic, multi-stakeholder and multi-criteria environments

Integrated supplier selection and order allocation is an important decision for both designing and operating supply chains. This decision is often influenced by the concerned stakeholders, suppliers, plant operators and customers in different tiers. As firms continue to seek competitive advantage through supply chain design and operations they aim to create optimized supply chains. This calls for on one hand consideration of multiple conflicting criteria and on the other hand consideration of uncertainties of demand and supply. Although there are studies on supplier selection using advanced mathematical models to cover a stochastic approach, multiple criteria decision making techniques and multiple stakeholder requirements separately, according to authors' knowledge there is no work that integrates these three aspects in a common framework. This paper proposes an integrated method for dealing with such problems using a combined Analytic Hierarchy Process-Quality Function Deployment (AHP-QFD) and chance constrained optimization algorithm approach that selects appropriate suppliers and allocates orders optimally between them. The effectiveness of the proposed decision support system has been demonstrated through application and validation in the bioenergy industry.

Country strategic risk and knowledge management:a proposed framework for improvement

The world is in a period of reflection about social and economic models. In particular there is a review of the capacities that countries have for improving their competitiveness. The experiences in a society are part of the process of learning and knowledge development in that society: especially in the development of communities. Risks appear continually in the process of the search for, analysis and implementation of solutions to problems. This paper discusses the issues related to the improvement of productivity and knowledge in a society, the risk that poor or even declining productivity brings to the communities and the need to develop people that support the decision making process in communities.The approach to improve the communities' development is through the design of a research programme in knowledge management based on distance learning. The research programme implementation is designed to provide value added to the decisions in communities in order to use collective intelligence, solve collective problems and to achieve goals that support local solutions. This program is organized and focused on four intelligence areas, artificial, collective, sentient and strategic. These areas are productivity related and seek to reduce the risk of lack of competitiveness through formal and integrated problem analysis. In a country such as Colombia, where different regions face varying problems to solve and there is a low level of infrastructure, the factors of production such as knowledge, skilled labour and "soft" infrastructure can be a way to develop the society.This entails using the local physical resources adequately for creating value with the support of people in the region to lead the analysis and search for solutions in the communities. The paper will describe the framework and programme and suggest how it could be applied in Colombia.