Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Frequency converter protection against supply network phenomena

This master’s thesis is focused on power supply network disturbances and their effects on the frequency converter – one of the components of modern process crane electrical system. The most critical disturbance types, their causes and the effect they bring to crane electrical system was determined in this work. Variety of protective devices used for mitigation of disturbances is investigated. Device protection solutions for the frequency converter used in crane applications are presented. Analyses of the power supply requirements for frequency converter and various components of crane electrical system were carried out and as a result the crane power supply requirements list that guarantees normal crane operation was built. This list is to be included in crane projects for troubleshooting purposes in order to determine potentially dangerous network.

Supply chain cost saving potential analysis

Target of this study was to examine the current supply chain with focus on external part and identify the cost potential areas which lie there. The goal was to evaluate the cost save potential and give estimate what would be required in order to realise it. Base data related to study was searched and examined with using company’s enterprise resource planning system. In case feasible two types of scenarios were built in order to describe the scale of save potential. First scenario was theoretical and achieving it would require further investments and second scenario was realistic approach where more limitations were taken into account. The results clearly show that there is high save potential in supply chain costs linked to balance between internal and external operations. Realising of it would require at least minor investments as current internal capacity is not on a level to fully absorb the additional volumes which are needed in order to realise the potential. This study can be used as a basis when starting new projects related to investment needs.

The role of power relations in strategic supply management – A value net approach

Supplier relationships are key elements of supply management and thus have attracted substantial research interest among academics and practitioners. The collaborative nature of relationships has been the focus of the mainstream research, and limited interest has been channelled towards power in buyer–supplier relationships. However, power is one of the key factors determining the outcomes in many business relations. Hence, one of the main objectives of this dissertation is to clarify how power may influence the nature of buyer–supplier relationships and, moreover, the depth of collaboration. Another main objective is to clarify the role of power relations in strategic supply management. Given the different nature of relationships, the firm needs divergent strategies in its supply management in order to handle them efficiently. Power has been identified as one of the factors that affect the nature of buyer–supplier relationships, and firms should thus develop strategies for handling power relations. Three research questions are addressed in pursuit of these objectives, the aim being to clarify the sources of power, the influence of power on collaboration, and the role of buyer–supplier relationships in the firm’s supply strategy. This dissertation has two parts. The first part provides a synthesis of the overall dissertation, and the second part comprises five complementary research papers. The qualitative research method is applied in an empirical case study from the Finnish food industry. The main contribution of this dissertation is that it clarifies the role of power relations in strategic supply management in value nets, and discloses the nature of power as an influencing factor in supplier relationships. It extends the discussion on power in buyer– supplier relationships in highlighting the context of networks and raising the question of network effects on power relations. It also illustrates how power positions and power relations in value nets can be determined based on the sources of power of the network actors, and shows their influence on collaboration.

Stress testing and risk evaluation of new capacity payment algorithm proposed by Market Council

In the Russian Wholesale Market, electricity and capacity are traded separately. Capacity is a special good, the sale of which obliges suppliers to keep their generating equipment ready to produce the quantity of electricity indicated by the System Operator. The purpose of the formation of capacity trading was the maintenance of reliable and uninterrupted delivery of electricity in the wholesale market. The price of capacity reflects constant investments in construction, modernization and maintenance of power plants. So, the capacity sale creates favorable conditions to attract investments in the energy sector because it guarantees the investor that his investments will be returned.

Analysis of electricity distribution network operation business models and capitalization of control room functions with DMS

Electricity distribution network operation (NO) models are challenged as they are expected to continue to undergo changes during the coming decades in the fairly developed and regulated Nordic electricity market. Network asset managers are to adapt to competitive technoeconomical business models regarding the operation of increasingly intelligent distribution networks. Factors driving the changes for new business models within network operation include: increased investments in distributed automation (DA), regulative frameworks for annual profit limits and quality through outage cost, increasing end-customer demands, climatic changes and increasing use of data system tools, such as Distribution Management System (DMS). The doctoral thesis addresses the questions a) whether there exist conditions and qualifications for competitive markets within electricity distribution network operation and b) if so, identification of limitations and required business mechanisms. This doctoral thesis aims to provide an analytical business framework, primarily for electric utilities, for evaluation and development purposes of dedicated network operation models to meet future market dynamics within network operation. In the thesis, the generic build-up of a business model has been addressed through the use of the strategicbusiness hierarchy levels of mission, vision and strategy for definition of the strategic direction of the business followed by the planning, management and process execution levels of enterprisestrategy execution. Research questions within electricity distribution network operation are addressed at the specified hierarchy levels. The results of the research represent interdisciplinary findings in the areas of electrical engineering and production economics. The main scientific contributions include further development of the extended transaction cost economics (TCE) for government decisions within electricity networks and validation of the usability of the methodology for the electricity distribution industry. Moreover, DMS benefit evaluations in the thesis based on the outage cost calculations propose theoretical maximum benefits of DMS applications equalling roughly 25% of the annual outage costs and 10% of the respective operative costs in the case electric utility. Hence, the annual measurable theoretical benefits from the use of DMS applications are considerable. The theoretical results in the thesis are generally validated by surveys and questionnaires.

Strategic supply chain alignment to customer buying behavior

In search for competitive advantage, designing and managing supply chain networks have become a necessary competence for organizations. The target of this thesis is to answer a question, how to design a multiple supply chain network. The purpose is to study, what kind of different supply chain designs exist and, how to choose appropriate supply chain designs for a company. In the thesis, the focus is on the supply chain alignment to customers, more specifically to customer buying behavior. The research method was a case study. A framework for measuring customer buying behavior was developed based on the literature and it was used in the study of customer buying behavior in the case environment. In the case company structured interviews and data records were used as sources of evidence. Persons working in the customer-interface were interviewed face-to-face and through an e-mail questionnaire. When analyzing the data, a Quality function deployment matrix was used as one analysis method. As a result of the thesis, supply chain network of the case company is proposed to be divided into three separate supply chains, which focus on different areas and they could be called lean, agile and continuous replenishment supply chains. In conclusion, in the supply chain alignment to customer buying behavior several aspects have to be studied from different perspectives. According to the results, a multiple supply chain strategy is recommended to be implemented in the case company, since the diversity of the customer needs cannot be managed efficiently through a single supply chain.

Public-Private Partnerships: Managing organizational change for acquiring value creative capabilities

The objective of the dissertation is to examine organizational responses of public actors to customer requirements which drive the transformation of value networks and promote public-private partnership in the electricity distribution industry and elderly care sectors. The research bridges the concept of offering to value networks where capabilities can be acquired for novel product concepts. The research contributes to recent literature, re-examining theories on interactions of customer requirements and supply management. A critical realist case study approach is applied to this abductive the research which directs to describe causalities in the analyzed phenomena. The presented evidence is based on three sources, which are in-depth interviews, archival analysis and the Delphi method. Service provision requires awareness on technology and functionalities of offering. Moreover, service provision includes interactions of multiple partners, which suggests the importance of the co-operative orientation of actors. According to the findings,portfolio management has a key role when intelligent solutions are implemented in public service provision because its concepts involve a variety of resources from multiple suppliers. However, emergent networks are not functional if they lack leaders who have access to the customer interface, have power to steer networks and a capability to build offerings. Public procurement policies were recognized to focus on a narrow scope in which price is a key factor in decisions. In the future, the public sector has to implement technology strategies and portfolio management, which mean longterm platform development and commitment to partnerships. On the other hand, the service providers should also be more aware of offerings into which their products will be integrated in the future. This requires making the customer’s voice in product development and co-operation in order to increase the interconnectivity of products.

Supply management capability

The objective of this thesis is to define supply management capability. The thesis study what factors consist of supply management capability, and which of those factors are critical to achieving competitive advantage. One objective is also to study how firms can measure their supply management capability. This study is a qualitative research. The thesis examines the literature regarding to supply management and the context of capability and there are used Delphi panel to examine the current and future insights of supply management professionals concerning of supply management skills and capability. The empirical data of the thesis was collected by interviews. The Delphi panel was used in data collection and analysis and for prioritization of the factors of supply management capability. The thesis includes lists of factors of supply management capability. Main findings of the study were that there is no one clear, generally suitable set of supply management skills which bring competitive advantage for all firms and the most important factors of supply management capability, according to the experts, are total cost analysis, customer focus, general business view, market knowledge and supplier relationships. In this study the supply management capability is defined as organization’s overall capacity and ability to achieve a holistic understanding of purchasing needs, manage its suppliers and collaborative partners, and conduct its internal tasks, routines and responsibilities in a way that achieves desired results. The results of this thesis show also that Finnish firms need more right kind of supply management knowledge.

The analysis and mitigation of risks in FMCG supply chain: the case of British American Tobacco Eastern Europe

This work investigates the Bullwhip Effect, which is one of the most important phenomena in contemporary supply chain management. The author uses most recent theoretical apparatus to analyze operational activities of a leading FMCG company British American Tobacco Eastern Europe. This paper investigates and describes the process in BAT supply chain management and considers the impact of the Bullwhip Effect together with the potential risks threatening company's operations. Emergence of the Bullwhip Effect leads to supply chain inefficiency. This paper contains methodological supply chain risk mitigation recommendations, description of a real case study and an analytical study of internal and external supply chain processes

The effect of wood supply and bleaching process on pulp brightness stability

One hundred different 5.5-year-old Eucalyptus grandis x Eucalyptus urophylla wood clones were cooked to kappa number 15-17.5 and the resulting kraft pulps oxygen-delignified to kappa 9.5-11.5 under fixed conditions, except for chemical charges. Thirteen samples showing large variations in effective alkali requirement, pulp yield and O-stage efficiency and selectivity were selected for brightness reversion studies. These samples were bleached to 90-91% ISO by DEDD and DEDP sequences and their brightness stability and chemical characteristics determined. Heat reversion of the eucalyptus kraft pulps was strongly influenced by the wood supply, with brightness loss varying in the range of 2.1-3.6 and 0.8-1.7 %ISO for ODEDD and ODEDP bleached pulps, respectively. Pulps bleached by the ODEDP sequence showed reversion values 1.3-1.9 % ISO lower than those bleached by the ODEDD sequence. Pulp carbonyl content decreased by 35-40% during the final peroxide bleaching stage. Carbonyl and carboxyl groups correlated positively with brightness reversion, as did permanganate number and acid soluble lignin. Pulp final viscosity and metal and DCM extractives contents showed no significant correlation with brightness reversion. Pulping, oxygen delignification and ECF bleaching performances also showed no correlation with brightness reversion.

Energiapuun haketuksen ja murskauksen kustannukset

Energiapuun tuotannossa puu on hienonnettava kuljettimille ja kattilaan sopivaan kokoon. Tämä tehdään Suomessa yleensä joko metsätien varressa välivarastolla, keskitetyssä terminaalissa tai voimalaitoksella. Puu hienonnetaan joko terävillä terillä hakettamalla tai tylpemmillä työkaluilla murskaamalla. Hakkeessa on vähemmän käsittelyä haittaavia pitkiä tikkuja ja sen valmistamiseen tarvittava energia on hiukan pienempi kuin murskaimilla. Viimeksi mainitulla on merkitystä lähinnä karsittua puuta haketettaessa. Murskain puolestaan sallii enemmän epäpuhtauksia raaka-aineessa, joten esimerkiksi kantoja käsitellään vain murskaimilla. Tässä tarkastellaan erityisesti pienpuun haketuksen ja murskauksen kustannuksia. Pienpuuta saadaan nuoren metsän kunnostuksista ja ensiharvennuksista. Se voi olla joko karsimatonta kokopuuta tai karsittua rankaa. Kokonaiskustannukset pienpuun haketukselle tai murskaukselle ovat tämän tutkimuksen mukaan välivarastolla noin 3,4 euroa/MWh ja terminaalilla tai voimalaitoksella noin 2 euroa/MWh. Pääomakustannukset ovat pienpuulla tavallisesti 1-1,2 euroa/MWh, keskitetyllä terminaalilla toimittaessa noin kolmanneksen vähemmän, jos pääomalle asetetaan 10% tuottovaatimus. Työvoimakustannukset ovat 30-80 snt/MWh varaston ja laitteen koosta riippuen, käyttöenergia dieselmoottoria käytettäessä noin 50 snt/MWh, sähkömoottorilla noin 30 snt/MWh. Muut kulut, mm. huolto, ovat yhteensä 40-80 snt/MWh. Energiapuun hankinnan kokonaiskustannuksista raaka-aineen hienontamisen osuus on 10-30% puutavaran lajista ja käytetystä työmenetelmästä riippuen. Terminaaleilla ja voimalaitoksilla toimittaessa on usein kiinnitettävä huomiota melun- ja pölyntorjuntaan. Muun muassa näistä syistä saattaa kiinteä, sähkökäyttöinen murska olla sopiva sellaisiin kohteisiin, joissa käsiteltävät määrät ovat suuria ja toiminta pysyvää. Melun ja pölyn kunnollinen torjunta vaatii suuria rakenteita, joita on vaikea yhdistää liikuteltaviin laitteisiin.