Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

The increasing demand of consumer markets for the welfare of birds in poultry house has motivated many scientific researches to monitor and classify the welfare according to the production environment. Given the complexity between the birds and the environment of the aviary, the correct interpretation of the conduct becomes an important way to estimate the welfare of these birds. This study obtained multiple logistic regression models with capacity of estimating the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to the environment of the aviaries and behaviors expressed by the birds. In the experiment, were observed several behaviors expressed by breeders housed in a climatic chamber under controlled temperatures and three different ammonia concentrations from the air monitored daily. From the analysis of the data it was obtained two logistic regression models, of which the first model uses a value of ammonia concentration measured by unit and the second model uses a binary value to classify the ammonia concentration that is assigned by a person through his olfactory perception. The analysis showed that both models classified the broiler breeder's welfare successfully.

Effective diffusivity and convective mass transfer coefficient during the drying of bananas

In this article, a methodology is used for the simultaneous determination of the effective diffusivity and the convective mass transfer coefficient in porous solids, which can be considered as an infinite cylinder during drying. Two models are used for optimization and drying simulation: model 1 (constant volume and diffusivity, with equilibrium boundary condition), and model 2 (constant volume and diffusivity with convective boundary condition). Optimization algorithms based on the inverse method were coupled to the analytical solutions, and these solutions can be adjusted to experimental data of the drying kinetics. An application of optimization methodology was made to describe the drying kinetics of whole bananas, using experimental data available in the literature. The statistical indicators enable to affirm that the solution of diffusion equation with convective boundary condition generates results superior than those with the equilibrium boundary condition.

Hydrological simulation using SWAT model in headwater basin in Southeast Brazil

Hydrological models are important tools that have been used in water resource planning and management. Thus, the aim of this work was to calibrate and validate in a daily time scale, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the watershed of the Galo creek , located in Espírito Santo State. To conduct the study we used georeferenced maps of relief, soil type and use, in addition to historical daily time series of basin climate and flow. In modeling were used time series corresponding to the periods Jan 1, 1995 to Dec 31, 2000 and Jan 1, 2001 to Dec 20, 2003 for calibration and validation, respectively. Model performance evaluation was done using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E NS) and the percentage of bias (P BIAS). SWAT evaluation was also done in the simulation of the following hydrological variables: maximum and minimum annual daily flowsand minimum reference flows, Q90 and Q95, based on mean absolute error. E NS and P BIAS were, respectively, 0.65 and 7.2% and 0.70 and 14.1%, for calibration and validation, indicating a satisfactory performance for the model. SWAT adequately simulated minimum annual daily flow and the reference flows, Q90 and Q95; it was not suitable in the simulation of maximum annual daily flows.

Mutual Fund Performance and the Market Timing Ability - Finnish Evidence

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the performance of Finnish equity funds and their market timing ability. Fund performance is evaluated by using annual returns and various risk-adjusted measures, including Sharpe ratio, DDSR, SKASR, Treynor ratio and Jensen’s alpha, whereas portfolio manager’s timing ability is examined with Treynor-Mazuy model and Henriksson-Merton model. The data is collected from the Finnish fund market during the sample period from January 1997 to February 2010. Results show that Finnish equity funds have been able to outperform the market return on a risk-adjusted basis, but these results are influenced heavily by the exceptionally good performance during the IT-bubble. Market timing models show that fund managers have been, to some degree, able to time the market but not a single fund have been able to possess security selection ability and market timing ability simultaneously.

Private Home Care in Municipal Service Systems – A Case Study among Finnish and Swedish Municipalities

The aim of this study is to assess the current and future preconditions for conducting private business in municipal service systems for home care in Lahti and Hyvinkää in Finland, and in Uppsala and Huddinge in Sweden. This study also aims to assess the implications of quality related issues on the preconditions for conducting private business in the service systems in question. The theories and the research methodologies of the study are based on the Business Model Generation and the Business Model Canvas -concepts. Also a couple of frameworks on implications of quality are applied and integrated into the study. The study is completed as a case study – with structured and identical approaches for all four municipalities. The analyses and assessments of the study are primarily qualitative, but supported by simple quantitative methodologies. The data of the study consists primarily of publicly available information, and secondarily of answers provided by the case-municipalities to multiple choice questions. The results of the study show that the service systems for home care among the case-municipalities are, from perspective of private companies, diverse with local characteristics. Both the premises for conducting private business and the quality-issues are in many respects different in the Finnish and the Swedish case-municipalities. This is partly due to differences in the national service systems; the service voucher system versus the system of choice. Still, it appears that the current preconditions for conducting private business in the service systems for home care, including the implications of quality, would be more favorable in Uppsala and Huddinge than in Lahti and Hyvinkää. On the other hand, the service systems are subject to changes, and the most positive and significant development is here forecasted for a Finnish case-municipality (Lahti). Communication of quality is clearly more advanced in the Swedish case-municipalities. The results of this study can be utilized in several ways, for instance by private companies interested in entering into service systems for home care, either in some of the case-municipalities, or in some other Finnish or Swedish municipalities. Also municipalities can apply the analyses of the study when designing, developing or evaluating their own service systems for home care.

MASTER DATA MANAGEMENT MATURITY AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT - From theory to practice, case Ineo Oy

After decades of mergers and acquisitions and successive technology trends such as CRM, ERP and DW, the data in enterprise systems is scattered and inconsistent. Global organizations face the challenge of addressing local uses of shared business entities, such as customer and material, and at the same time have a consistent, unique, and consolidate view of financial indicators. In addition, current enterprise systems do not accommodate the pace of organizational changes and immense efforts are required to maintain data. When it comes to systems integration, ERPs are considered “closed” and expensive. Data structures are complex and the “out-of-the-box” integration options offered are not based on industry standards. Therefore expensive and time-consuming projects are undertaken in order to have required data flowing according to business processes needs. Master Data Management (MDM) emerges as one discipline focused on ensuring long-term data consistency. Presented as a technology-enabled business discipline, it emphasizes business process and governance to model and maintain the data related to key business entities. There are immense technical and organizational challenges to accomplish the “single version of the truth” MDM mantra. Adding one central repository of master data might prove unfeasible in a few scenarios, thus an incremental approach is recommended, starting from areas most critically affected by data issues. This research aims at understanding the current literature on MDM and contrasting it with views from professionals. The data collected from interviews revealed details on the complexities of data structures and data management practices in global organizations, reinforcing the call for more in-depth research on organizational aspects of MDM. The most difficult piece of master data to manage is the “local” part, the attributes related to the sourcing and storing of materials in one particular warehouse in The Netherlands or a complex set of pricing rules for a subsidiary of a customer in Brazil. From a practical perspective, this research evaluates one MDM solution under development at a Finnish IT solution-provider. By means of applying an existing assessment method, the research attempts at providing the company with one possible tool to evaluate its product from a vendor-agnostics perspective.

Device model for training of laparoscopic surgical skills

The authors present a especially constructed, lightweight, collapsible, portable and low cost model device for skills training in laparoscopic.

Teaching project: a low-cost swine model for chest tube insertion training

Objective: to describe and evaluate the acceptance of a low-cost chest tube insertion porcine model in a medical education project in the southwest of Paraná, Brazil. Methods: we developed a low-cost and low technology porcine model for teaching chest tube insertion and used it in a teaching project. Medical trainees - students and residents - received theoretical instructions about the procedure and performed thoracic drainage in this porcine model. After performing the procedure, the participants filled a feedback questionnaire about the proposed experimental model. This study presents the model and analyzes the questionnaire responses. Results: seventy-nine medical trainees used and evaluated the model. The anatomical correlation between the porcine model and human anatomy was considered high and averaged 8.1±1.0 among trainees. All study participants approved the low-cost porcine model for chest tube insertion. Conclusion: the presented low-cost porcine model for chest tube insertion training was feasible and had good acceptability among trainees. This model has potential use as a teaching tool in medical education.

Novel Methods for Error Modeling and Parameter Identification of a Redundant Serial-Parallel Hybrid Robot

To obtain the desirable accuracy of a robot, there are two techniques available. The first option would be to make the robot match the nominal mathematic model. In other words, the manufacturing and assembling tolerances of every part would be extremely tight so that all of the various parameters would match the “design” or “nominal” values as closely as possible. This method can satisfy most of the accuracy requirements， but the cost would increase dramatically as the accuracy requirement increases. Alternatively, a more cost-effective solution is to build a manipulator with relaxed manufacturing and assembling tolerances. By modifying the mathematical model in the controller, the actual errors of the robot can be compensated. This is the essence of robot calibration. Simply put, robot calibration is the process of defining an appropriate error model and then identifying the various parameter errors that make the error model match the robot as closely as possible. This work focuses on kinematic calibration of a 10 degree-of-freedom (DOF) redundant serial-parallel hybrid robot. The robot consists of a 4-DOF serial mechanism and a 6-DOF hexapod parallel manipulator. The redundant 4-DOF serial structure is used to enlarge workspace and the 6-DOF hexapod manipulator is used to provide high load capabilities and stiffness for the whole structure. The main objective of the study is to develop a suitable calibration method to improve the accuracy of the redundant serial-parallel hybrid robot. To this end, a Denavit–Hartenberg (DH) hybrid error model and a Product-of-Exponential (POE) error model are developed for error modeling of the proposed robot. Furthermore, two kinds of global optimization methods, i.e. the differential-evolution (DE) algorithm and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, are employed to identify the parameter errors of the derived error model. A measurement method based on a 3-2-1 wire-based pose estimation system is proposed and implemented in a Solidworks environment to simulate the real experimental validations. Numerical simulations and Solidworks prototype-model validations are carried out on the hybrid robot to verify the effectiveness, accuracy and robustness of the calibration algorithms.

Association between Lipid Accumulation Product and Hirsutism in Patients with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

Objective Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine metabolic disorder in women between menarche and menopause. Clinical hyperandrogenism is the most important diagnostic criterion of the syndrome, which manifests as hirsutism in 70% of cases. Hirsute carriers of PCOS have high cardiovascular risk. Lipid accumulation product (LAP) is an index for the evaluation of lipid accumulation in adults and the prediction of cardiovascular risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between LAP and hirsutism in women with PCOS. Methods This was a cross-sectional observational study of a secondary database, which included 263 patients who had visited the Hyperandrogenism Outpatient Clinic from November 2009 to July 2014. The exclusion criteria were patients without Ferriman-Gallwey index (FGI) and/or LAP data. We used the Rotterdam criteria for the diagnosis of PCOS. All patients underwent medical assessment followed by measurement and recording of anthropometric data and the laboratory tests for measurement of the following: thyroid-stimulating hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone, prolactin, total testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin, 17-α-hydroxyprogesterone (follicular phase), glycohemoglobin A1c, and basal insulin. In addition, the subjects underwent lipid profiling and oral glucose tolerance tests. Other laboratory measurements were determined according to clinical criteria. LAP and the homeostatic model assessment index (HOMA-IR) were calculated using the data obtained. We divided patients into two groups: the PCOS group with normal LAP (< 34.5) and the PCOS group with altered LAP (> 34.5) to compare the occurrence of hirsutism. For statistical analysis, we used SPSS Statistics for Windows(r) and Microsoft Excel programs, with descriptive (frequencies, percentages, means, and standard deviations) and comparative analyses (Student's t-test and Chi-square test). We considered relations significant when the p-value was≤0.05. Results LAP was high in most patients (n = 177; 67.3%) and the FGI indicated that 58.5% of the patients (n = 154) had hirsutism. The analysis by LAP quartiles showed a positive correlation (p = 0.04) among patients with a high FGI and an upper quartile LAP (> 79.5) when compared with those with LAP < 29.0 (lower quartile). Conclusion This study demonstrated an association between high LAP and hirsutism. The FGI could represent a simple and low-cost tool to infer an increased cardiovascular risk in women with PCOS.

The Effects of Service Quality, Customer Satisfaction and Customer Perceived Value on Behavioral Intentions

The intent of this research was to develop a model that describes the extent to which customer behavioral intentions are influenced by service quality, customer satisfaction and customer perceived value in the business-to-business service context. Research on customer behavioral intentions is quite fragmented and no generalized model has been presented. Thus, there was need for empirical testing. This study builds on the services marketing theory and assesses the relationships between the identified constructs. The data for the empirical analysis was collected via a quantitative online survey and a total of 226 usable responses were obtained for further analysis. The model was tested in an employment agency service setting. The measures used in this survey were first assessed by using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) after which the hypothesized relationships were further verified using structural equation modeling (SEM) in LISREL 8.80. The analysis identified that customer satisfaction played a pivotal role in the model as it was the only direct antecedent of customer behavioral intentions, however, customer perceived value showed a strong indirect impact on buying intentions via customer satisfaction. In contrast to what was hypothesized, service quality and customer perceived value did not have a direct positive effect on behavioral intentions. Also, a contradicting finding with current literature was that sacrifice was argued to have a direct but positive impact on customer perceived value. Based on the findings in this study, managers should carefully think of their service strategies that lead to their customers’ favorable behavioral intentions.

Reflexive Space. A Constructionist Model of the Russian Reflexive Marker

This study examines the structure of the Russian Reflexive Marker ( ся/-сь) and offers a usage-based model building on Construction Grammar and a probabilistic view of linguistic structure. Traditionally, reflexive verbs are accounted for relative to non-reflexive verbs. These accounts assume that linguistic structures emerge as pairs. Furthermore, these accounts assume directionality where the semantics and structure of a reflexive verb can be derived from the non-reflexive verb. However, this directionality does not necessarily hold diachronically. Additionally, the semantics and the patterns associated with a particular reflexive verb are not always shared with the non-reflexive verb. Thus, a model is proposed that can accommodate the traditional pairs as well as for the possible deviations without postulating different systems. A random sample of 2000 instances marked with the Reflexive Marker was extracted from the Russian National Corpus and the sample used in this study contains 819 unique reflexive verbs. This study moves away from the traditional pair account and introduces the concept of Neighbor Verb. A neighbor verb exists for a reflexive verb if they share the same phonological form excluding the Reflexive Marker. It is claimed here that the Reflexive Marker constitutes a system in Russian and the relation between the reflexive and neighbor verbs constitutes a cross-paradigmatic relation. Furthermore, the relation between the reflexive and the neighbor verb is argued to be of symbolic connectivity rather than directionality. Effectively, the relation holding between particular instantiations can vary. The theoretical basis of the present study builds on this assumption. Several new variables are examined in order to systematically model variability of this symbolic connectivity, specifically the degree and strength of connectivity between items. In usage-based models, the lexicon does not constitute an unstructured list of items. Instead, items are assumed to be interconnected in a network. This interconnectedness is defined as Neighborhood in this study. Additionally, each verb carves its own niche within the Neighborhood and this interconnectedness is modeled through rhyme verbs constituting the degree of connectivity of a particular verb in the lexicon. The second component of the degree of connectivity concerns the status of a particular verb relative to its rhyme verbs. The connectivity within the neighborhood of a particular verb varies and this variability is quantified by using the Levenshtein distance. The second property of the lexical network is the strength of connectivity between items. Frequency of use has been one of the primary variables in functional linguistics used to probe this. In addition, a new variable called Constructional Entropy is introduced in this study building on information theory. It is a quantification of the amount of information carried by a particular reflexive verb in one or more argument constructions. The results of the lexical connectivity indicate that the reflexive verbs have statistically greater neighborhood distances than the neighbor verbs. This distributional property can be used to motivate the traditional observation that the reflexive verbs tend to have idiosyncratic properties. A set of argument constructions, generalizations over usage patterns, are proposed for the reflexive verbs in this study. In addition to the variables associated with the lexical connectivity, a number of variables proposed in the literature are explored and used as predictors in the model. The second part of this study introduces the use of a machine learning algorithm called Random Forests. The performance of the model indicates that it is capable, up to a degree, of disambiguating the proposed argument construction types of the Russian Reflexive Marker. Additionally, a global ranking of the predictors used in the model is offered. Finally, most construction grammars assume that argument construction form a network structure. A new method is proposed that establishes generalization over the argument constructions referred to as Linking Construction. In sum, this study explores the structural properties of the Russian Reflexive Marker and a new model is set forth that can accommodate both the traditional pairs and potential deviations from it in a principled manner.

Oxidation rates of carbon and nitrogen in char residues from solid fuels

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling is an important tool in designing new combustion systems. By using CFD modeling, entire combustion systems can be modeled and the emissions and the performance can be predicted. CFD modeling can also be used to develop new and better combustion systems from an economical and environmental point of view. In CFD modeling of solid fuel combustion, the combustible fuel is generally treated as single fuel particles. One of the limitations with the CFD modeling concerns the sub-models describing the combustion of single fuel particles. Available models in the scientific literature are in many cases not suitable as submodels for CFD modeling since they depend on a large number of input parameters and are computationally heavy. In this thesis CFD-applicable models are developed for the combustion of single fuel particles. The single particle models can be used to improve the combustion performance in various combustion devices or develop completely new technologies. The investigated fields are oxidation of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in char residues from solid fuels. Modeled char-C oxidation rates are compared to experimental oxidation rates for a large number of pulverized solid fuel chars under relevant combustion conditions. The experiments have been performed in an isothermal plug flow reactor operating at 1123-1673 K and 3-15 vol.% O2. In the single particle model, the char oxidation is based on apparent kinetics and depends on three fuel specific parameters: apparent pre-exponential factor, apparent activation energy, and apparent reaction order. The single particle model can be incorporated as a sub-model into a CFD code. The results show that the modeled char oxidation rates are in good agreement with experimental char oxidation rates up to around 70% of burnout. Moreover, the results show that the activation energy and the reaction order can be assumed to be constant for a large number of bituminous coal chars under conditions limited by the combined effects of chemical kinetics and pore diffusion. Based on this, a new model based on only one fuel specific parameter is developed (Paper III). The results also show that reaction orders of bituminous coal chars and anthracite chars differ under similar conditions (Paper I and Paper II); reaction orders of bituminous coal chars were found to be one, while reaction orders of anthracite chars were determined to be zero. This difference in reaction orders has not previously been observed in the literature and should be considered in future char oxidation models. One of the most frequently used comprehensive char oxidation models could not explain the difference in the reaction orders. In the thesis (Paper II), a modification to the model is suggested in order to explain the difference in reaction orders between anthracite chars and bituminous coal chars. Two single particle models are also developed for the NO formation and reduction during the oxidation of single biomass char particles. In the models the char-N is assumed to be oxidized to NO and the NO is partly reduced inside the particle. The first model (Paper IV) is based on the concentration gradients of NO inside and outside the particle and the second model is simplified to such an extent that it is based on apparent kinetics and can be incorporated as a sub-model into a CFD code (Paper V). Modeled NO release rates from both models were in good agreement with experimental measurements from a single particle reactor of quartz glass operating at 1173-1323 K and 3-19 vol.% O2. In the future, the models can be used to reduce NO emissions in new combustion systems.

Gas-solid two-phase flow in the riser of circulating fluidized beds: mathematical modelling and numerical simulation

A mathematical model is developed for gas-solids flows in circulating fluidized beds. An Eulerian formulation is followed based on the two-fluids model approach where both the fluid and the particulate phases are treated as a continuum. The physical modelling is discussed, including the formulation of boundary conditions and the description of the numerical methodology. Results of numerical simulation are presented and discussed. The model is validated through comparison to experiment, and simulation is performed to investigate the effects on the flow hydrodynamics of the solids viscosity.

A New Model to Determine the Dispersion of Fatigue Damage Evaluations

Reliable predictions of remaining lives of civil or mechanical structures subjected to fatigue damage are very difficult to be made. In general, fatigue damage is extremely sensitive to the random variations of material mechanical properties, environment and loading. These variations may induce large dispersions when the structural fatigue life has to be predicted. Wirsching (1970) mentions dispersions of the order of 30 to 70 % of the mean calculated life. The presented paper introduces a model to estimate the fatigue damage dispersion based on known statistical distributions of the fatigue parameters (material properties and loading). The model is developed by expanding into Taylor series the set of equations that describe fatigue damage for crack initiation.