Crises and Crisis Generations: International Conflict and Military Participation in Politics

Why do states facing high levels of international threat sometimes have militaries that are heavily involved in politics and at other times relatively apolitical, professional militaries? I argue that the answer to this puzzle lies in a state's history of 'acute' international crises rather than its 'chronic' threat environment. Major international crises lead to professionalization and de-politicization of militaries in both the short- and long-term. International crises underscore the need for the military to defend the state and highlight military deficiencies in this regard. Accordingly, major international crises lead to military professionalization and withdrawal from politics in order to increase military effectiveness. This effect persists years, and decades, later due to generational shifts in the officer corps. As the "Crisis Generation" of officers become generals, they bring with them a preference for professionalization and de-politicization. They guide the military towards abstention from politics. I test this theory using a new global dataset on military officers in national governing bodies from 1964-2008 and find strong support for the theory. Major international crises lead to two waves of military withdrawal from government, years apart. Further statistical analysis finds that this effect is most strongly felt in the non-security areas of governing, while in some cases, international crises may lead to militaries increasing their involvement in security policy-making. Further, international crises that end poorly for a state — i.e., defeats or stalemates — are found to drive more rapid waves of military withdrawal from government. The statistical analysis is supported by a case illustration of civil-military relations in the People's Republic of China, which demonstrates that the crisis of the Korean War (1950-53) led to two waves of military professionalization and de-politicization, decades apart. The first occurred immediately after the war. The second wave, occurring in the 1980s, involved wholesale military withdrawal from governing bodies, which was made possible by the ascent of the "Crisis Generation" of officers in the military, who had served as junior officers in the Korean War, decades prior.

Forecasting errors, directional accuracy and profitability of currency trading: The case of EUR/USD exchange rate

We provide a comprehensive study of out-of-sample forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy and trading strategies in addition to standard loss minimization measures. When comparing predictive accuracy and profit measures, data snooping bias free tests are used. The results indicate that forecast combinations, in particular those based on principal components of forecasts, help to improve over benchmark trading strategies, although the excess return per unit of deviation is limited.

Mecanismos de resolução na banca : análise comparativa do enquadramento regulatório na Europa e nos EUA

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais

A Bateria de Artilharia de Campanha como Força Nacional Destacada numa Operação de Resposta a Crises

Tem-se assistido ao aumento das operações de resposta a crises onde são realizadas operações de média e baixa intensidade. O interesse nacional em participar em missões internacionais com a finalidade de contribuir para a imagem do país como cooperador de paz e segurança mundial, tem levado à constante participação nessa tipologia de missões. A participação da Artilharia neste âmbito tem sido pouco expressiva. Por este motivo, o presente trabalho pretende investigar as possibilidades de emprego de uma Bateria de Artilharia de Campanha como Força Nacional Destacada numa Operação de Resposta a Crises. Os objetivos deste trabalho passam por identificar as tarefas e as subtarefas requeridas no âmbito de uma operação de estabilização e quais destas poderão ser realizadas pela Artilharia de Campanha. Pretende-se de igual forma identificar quais as capacidades e possibilidades de atuação de uma Bateria de Artilharia de Campanha em operações de resposta a crises, tendo em conta a sua doutrina e treino operacional. De igual forma, objetivo passa por identificar as diferenças e semelhanças do treino individual e coletivo, entre as Unidades da Artilharia de Campanha e as que participaram em operações de resposta a crises. Por último aborda-se a forma como é feita a geração de forças e a edificação de capacidades do sistema de forças do Exército, no âmbito das Forças Nacionais Destacadas e das NATO Response Forces. A metodologia utilizada foi a dos seguintes autores: Santos, et al. (2016), Manuela Sarmento (2013) e Vilelas (2009). A abordagem para este trabalho é a qualitativa, utilizando o raciocínio o dedutivo, recorrendo à análise documental e à entrevista como técnicas de recolhas de dados. No que concerte à utilização da Artilharia em operações de resposta a crises, o seu emprego é significativamente reduzido, pelas características do ambiente operacional. No entanto, existe uma serie de tarefas que poderão ser realizadas pela Artilharia tais como: Apoio às unidades de manobra durante as suas operações, e proteção de Bases militares com fogos letais e não-letais; Operações de demonstração de força; realizar fogos de advertência, monitorização global das operações, contribuindo para a Comum Operational Picture; Ações de mentoria; Segurança a pontos e áreas críticas. É possível empregar de uma Bateria de Artilharia de Campanha como unidade de manobra, em missões não especificas de Artilharia de Campanha, se esta tiver o treino adequado. O período de aprontamento e treino orientado para a missão seria suficiente para dotar a força das capacidades necessárias para obterem a certificação, e posteriormente serem projetadas para o teatro de operações. No entanto não se perspetiva a necessidade de atuação de uma Bateria de Artilharia de Campanha, como Unidade de manobra. Por isso Artilharia de Campanha deverá continuar a manter o seu elevado nível de treino e operacionalidade reforçando a aposta em exercícios conjuntos e combinados de forma a manter-se como possibilidade de gerar subunidades aptas a participar nas NATO Response Forces.

Les mouvances réglementaires entourant la profession comptable au lendemain de crises financières : propagation du discours néolibéral, production de mythes et gouvernance en silo

C’est en réponse aux plus récentes crises financières que plusieurs processus réglementaires – dont certains constituent les objets d’étude de cette thèse – ont été déployés pour concevoir et implanter diverses réformes « d’amélioration » au sein de la pratique professionnelle des auditeurs financiers. Tant la crise du début des années 2000 que celle de 2007-2008 auraient attiré de vives critiques à l’égard du travail des auditeurs et de leur contribution (prétendument défaillante) au sein du fonctionnement des marchés des capitaux. Considérant leur fonction de « chien de garde » qui est censée assurer, avant tout, la protection du public au sein de ces marchés, il semblait inévitable que leur travail soit, dans une certaine mesure, remis en doute à travers les processus de révision réglementaire mis en place. C’est ainsi que chacun des trois articles qui composent cette thèse offre une analyse de différents aspects – tels que la mise en place, le déroulement, la nature et la substance des discours et des résultats – liés à ces processus de révision réglementaire qui entourent la pratique professionnelle des auditeurs au lendemain des crises financières. En somme, en plus d’indiquer comment ces processus ne sont point à l’abri de controverses, les conclusions de cette thèse inciteront à ce qu’une attention sérieuse soit portée à leur égard afin de préserver le bienfondé de la profession des comptables et des auditeurs. Alors que, dans le premier article, il sera question d’illustrer l’infiltration (critiquable) d’un discours néolibéral au sein des débats qui entourent les processus de révision réglementaire dont il est question, dans le deuxième article, il sera question d’exposer, au sein de ces processus, un mécanisme de production de mythes prônant un certain statu quo. Par ailleurs, dans le dernier article, en plus de mettre en évidence le fait que les approches de gouvernance déployées à travers ces processus de révision réglementaire ne sont pas suffisamment englobantes, on pourra aussi prendre conscience de l’inféodation de l’expertise de l’audit face à son environnement (et plus précisément, face aux expertises de la normalisation comptable et de la financiarisation de l’économie). Sous un regard critique, et à travers des analyses qualitatives, chacun des articles de cette thèse permettra de remettre en question certaines facettes des processus réglementaires et institutionnels qui entourent le champ de la comptabilité et de l’audit.

La construcción de sentido (‘sensemaking’) de un entorno estratégico turbulento por parte de los altos directivos: un estudio en una multinacional automotriz

Este artículo presenta los resultados de una investigación realizada al interior de dos contextos. Por un lado, el teórico, en el marco de uno de los discursos más relevantes en los campos de la estrategia organizacional, de la managerial and organizational cognition (MOC) y, en general, de los estudios organizacionales (organization studies): la construcción de sentido (sensemaking). Por el otro, el empírico, en una de las grandes compañías multinacionales del sector automotriz con presencia global. Esta corporación enfrenta una permanente tensión entre lo que dicta la casa matriz, en relación con el cumplimiento de metas y estándares específicos, considerando el mundo entero, y los retos que, teniendo en cuenta lo regional y lo local, experimentan los altos directivos encargados de hacer prosperar la empresa en estos lugares. La aproximación implementada fue cualitativa. Esto en atención a la naturaleza de la problemática abordada y la tradición del campo. Los resultados permiten ampliar el actual nivel de comprensión acerca de los procesos de sensemaking de los altos directivos al enfrentar un entorno estratégico turbulento.

Why does the Euro fail? The DCCA approach

The present crisis in the Euro is one of the most serious crises reported in history. The fact that different countries that adopted the Euro have different conditions to support asymmetric shocks in their economies could explain some of the consequences currently affecting the Eurozone. In this paper we apply detrended cross-correlation analysis and its cross correlation coefficient to evaluate the degree of financial integration of the first set of countries to adopt the common currency. Since time series used in these studies are known to be non-stationary, DCCA is suited to study it. It is the first time this methodology has been applied to study financial integration. We conclude that the degree of financial integration is unequal in several countries using the common currency. The fact that countries like Greece, Ireland or Portugal are the ones facing most problems in verification of the parity used in this paper could help to explain the present instability in the Eurozone.

Développement, crises et adaptation des territoires du soja au Mato Grosso: l'exemple de Sorriso.

A expansão da cultura da soja no sul da Amazônia Brasileira na década de 1990 permitiu a emergência de novos territórios integrados a "economia mundial" depois da fase pioneira das décadas de 1970 e 1980. Mas, a queda dos preços, a "ferrugem asiática" (doença da soja), a variabilidade climática e as tensões ambientais levaram o setor agrícola a uma crise profunda entre 2004 e 2007. Esta crise demonstrou os limites deste modelo de desenvolvimento bem ilustrado pelo município de Sorriso (maior produtor de soja do Brasil). Os produtores procuram agora aproveitar as lições aprendidas a partir dos fracassos do passado e adaptar-se as novas normas impostas pela sociedade civil e os mercados internacionais (certificação ambiental, aplicação do código florestal, dentre outros). Vários esforços estão sendo realizados para intensificar e diversificar as produções, principalmente através da cultura do milho e do algodão. Enfim, projetos locais de desenvolvimento sustentável baseados na educação ambiental e sensibilização ao reflorestamento estão sendo criados. Isto comprova a vontade de parte dos atores locais de mudar o padrão de desenvolvimento da região.

Why the “Big Deal” continues to persist

The advantages of bundling e-journals together into publisher collections include increased access to information for the subscribing institution’s clients, purchasing cost-effectiveness and streamlined workflows. Whilst cataloguing a consortial e-journal collection has its advantages, there are also various pitfalls and the author outlines efforts by the CAUL (Council of Australian University Libraries) Consortium libraries to further streamline this process, working in conjunction with major publishers. Despite the advantages that publisher collections provide, pressures to unbundle existing packages continue to build, fuelled by an ever-increasing selection of available electronic resources; decreases in, and competing demands upon, library budgets; the impact of currency fluctuations; and poor usage for an alarmingly high proportion of collection titles. Consortial perspectives on bundling and unbundling titles are discussed, including options for managing the addition of new titles to the bundle and why customising consortial collections currently does not work. Unbundling analyses carried out at Queensland University of Technology during 2006 to 2008 prior to the renewal of several major publisher collections are presented as further case studies which illustrate why the “big deal” continues to persist.

Building Information Modelling for FM at Sydney Opera House

“SOH see significant benefit in digitising its drawings and operation and maintenance manuals. Since SOH do not currently have digital models of the Opera House structure or other components, there is an opportunity for this national case study to promote the application of Digital Facility Modelling using standardized Building Information Models (BIM)”. The digital modelling element of this project examined the potential of building information models for Facility Management focusing on the following areas: • The re-usability of building information for FM purposes • BIM as an Integrated information model for facility management • Extendibility of the BIM to cope with business specific requirements • Commercial facility management software using standardised building information models • The ability to add (organisation specific) intelligence to the model • A roadmap for SOH to adopt BIM for FM The project has established that BIM – building information modelling - is an appropriate and potentially beneficial technology for the storage of integrated building, maintenance and management data for SOH. Based on the attributes of a BIM, several advantages can be envisioned: consistency in the data, intelligence in the model, multiple representations, source of information for intelligent programs and intelligent queries. The IFC – open building exchange standard – specification provides comprehensive support for asset and facility management functions, and offers new management, collaboration and procurement relationships based on sharing of intelligent building data. The major advantages of using an open standard are: information can be read and manipulated by any compliant software, reduced user “lock in” to proprietary solutions, third party software can be the “best of breed” to suit the process and scope at hand, standardised BIM solutions consider the wider implications of information exchange outside the scope of any particular vendor, information can be archived as ASCII files for archival purposes, and data quality can be enhanced as the now single source of users’ information has improved accuracy, correctness, currency, completeness and relevance. SOH current building standards have been successfully drafted for a BIM environment and are confidently expected to be fully developed when BIM is adopted operationally by SOH. There have been remarkably few technical difficulties in converting the House’s existing conventions and standards to the new model based environment. This demonstrates that the IFC model represents world practice for building data representation and management (see Sydney Opera House – FM Exemplar Project Report Number 2005-001-C-3, Open Specification for BIM: Sydney Opera House Case Study). Availability of FM applications based on BIM is in its infancy but focussed systems are already in operation internationally and show excellent prospects for implementation systems at SOH. In addition to the generic benefits of standardised BIM described above, the following FM specific advantages can be expected from this new integrated facilities management environment: faster and more effective processes, controlled whole life costs and environmental data, better customer service, common operational picture for current and strategic planning, visual decision-making and a total ownership cost model. Tests with partial BIM data – provided by several of SOH’s current consultants – show that the creation of a SOH complete model is realistic, but subject to resolution of compliance and detailed functional support by participating software applications. The showcase has demonstrated successfully that IFC based exchange is possible with several common BIM based applications through the creation of a new partial model of the building. Data exchanged has been geometrically accurate (the SOH building structure represents some of the most complex building elements) and supports rich information describing the types of objects, with their properties and relationships.

Impeding good governance implementation in Indonesian regional government : the effect of a bureaucratic generation gap

The implementation of ‘good governance’ in Indonesia’s regional government sector became a central tenet in governance research following the introduction of the national code for governance in 2006. The code was originally drafted in 1999 as a response to the Asian financial crises and many cases of unearthed corruption, collusion, and nepotism. It was reviewed in 2001 and again in 2006 to incorporate relevant political, economical, and social developments. Even though the national code exists along with many regional government decrees on good governance, the extent of implementation of the tenets of good governance in Indonesia’s regional government is still questioned. Previous research on good governance implementation in Indonesian regional government (Mardiasmo, Barnes and Sakurai, 2008) identified differences in the nature and depth of implementation between various Indonesian regional governments. This paper analyses and extends this recent work and explores key factors that may impede the implementation and sustained application of governance practices across regional settings. The bureaucratic culture of Indonesian regional government is one that has been shaped for over approximately 30 years, in particular during that of the Soeharto regime. Previous research on this regime suggests a bureaucratic culture with a mix of positive and negative aspects. On one hand Soeharto’s regime resulted in strong development growth and strong economic fundamentals, resulting in Indonesia being recognised as one of the Asian economic tigers prior to the 1997 Asian financial crises. The financial crises however revealed a bureaucratic culture that was rife with corruption, collusion, and nepotism. Although subsequent Indonesian governments have been committed to eradicating entrenched practices it seems apparent that the culture is ingrained within the bureaucracy and eradication of it will take time. Informants from regional government agree with this observation, as they identify good governance as an innovative mechanism and to implement it will mean a deviation from the “old ways.” Thus there is a need for a “changed” mind set in order to implement sustained governance practices. Such an exercise has proven to be challenging so far, as there is “hidden” resistance from within the bureaucracy to change its ways. The inertia of such bureaucratic cultures forms a tension against the opportunity for the implementation of good governance. From this context an emergent finding is the existence of a ‘bureaucratic generation gap’ as an impeding variable to enhanced and more efficient implementation of governance systems. It was found that after the Asian financial crises the Indonesian government (both at national and regional level) drew upon a wider human resources pool to fill government positions – including entrants from academia, the private sector, international institutions, foreign nationals and new graduates. It suggested that this change in human capital within government is at the core of this ‘inter-generational divide.’ This divergence is exemplified, at one extreme, by [older] bureaucrats who have been in-position for long periods of time serving during the extended Soeharto regime. The “new” bureaucrats have only sat in their positions since the end of Asian financial crisis and did not serve during Soeharto’s regime. It is argued that the existence of this generation gap and associated aspects of organisational culture have significantly impeded modernising governance practices across regional Indonesia. This paper examines the experiences of government employees in five Indonesian regions: Solok, Padang, Gorontalo, Bali, and Jakarta. Each regional government is examined using a mixed methodology comprising of on-site observation, document analysis, and iterative semi-structured interviewing. Drawing from the experiences of five regional governments in implementing good governance this paper seeks to better understand the causal contexts of variable implementation governance practices and to suggest enhancements to the development of policies for sustainable inter-generational change in governance practice across regional government settings.

Towards digital facility modelling for Sydney Opera House using IFC and semantic web technology

The challenges of maintaining a building such as the Sydney Opera House are immense and are dependent upon a vast array of information. The value of information can be enhanced by its currency, accessibility and the ability to correlate data sets (integration of information sources). A building information model correlated to various information sources related to the facility is used as definition for a digital facility model. Such a digital facility model would give transparent and an integrated access to an array of datasets and obviously would support Facility Management processes. In order to construct such a digital facility model, two state-of-the-art Information and Communication technologies are considered: an internationally standardized building information model called the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) and a variety of advanced communication and integration technologies often referred to as the Semantic Web such as the Resource Description Framework (RDF) and the Web Ontology Language (OWL). This paper reports on some technical aspects for developing a digital facility model focusing on Sydney Opera House. The proposed digital facility model enables IFC data to participate in an ontology driven, service-oriented software environment. A proof-of-concept prototype has been developed demonstrating the usability of IFC information to collaborate with Sydney Opera House’s specific data sources using semantic web ontologies.

Recognising and respecting Torres Strait Islander mathematics knowledges and home languages through mainstream mathematics education [Abstract]

This abstract provides a preliminary discussion of the importance of recognising Torres Strait Islander knowledges and home languages of mathematics education. It stems from a project involving Torres Strait Islander Teachers and Teacher Aides and university based researchers who are working together to enhance the mathematics learning of students from Years 4-9. A key focus of the project is that mathematics is relevant and provides students with opportunities for further education, training and employment. Veronica Arbon (2008) questions the assumptions underpinning Western mainstream education as beneficial for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people which assumes that it enables them to better participate in Australian society. She asks “how de we best achieve outcomes for and with Indigenous people conducive to our cultural, physical and economic sustainability as defined by us from Indigenous knowledge positions?” (p. 118). How does a mainstream education written to English conventions provide students with the knowledge and skills to participate in daily life, if it does not recognise the cultural identity of Indigenous students as it should (Priest, 2005; cf. Schnukal, 2003)? Arbon (2008) states that this view is now brought into question with calls for both ways education where mainstream knowledge and practices is blended with Indigenous cultural knowledges of learning. This project considers as crucial that cultural knowledges and experiences of Indigenous people to be valued and respected and given the currency in the same way that non Indigenous knowledge is (Taylor, 2003) for both ways education to work.

Learning to drive with cognitive impairment : the experience of young ADHD diagnosed drivers and their parent supervisors

A subset of novice drivers exhibit executive function impairments which may adversely impact on the learn-to-drive period and subsequent driving experience, potentially explaining their overrepresentation in traffic offences and crashes. This paper presents the results of a qualitative analysis of a small series of in-depth semi-structured interviews undertaken individually with affected young drivers (n = 7) and each of their parent supervisors (n = 6). Young drivers were selected on the basis of their ADHD diagnosis, as a sample particularly affected by executive function impairments. Standardised rating scale measures confirmed the currency of the young drivers’ ADHD symptoms and executive function impairment. Results are discussed in terms of common experiences of the young affected drivers and those of their parents as supervising drivers of the learn-to-drive process and subsequent driving behaviour. Key themes included difficulties that were related to core executive function impairments symptomatic of ADHD. Themes also included common emotions that the young drivers associated with driving, with particular types of impact on their driving behaviour. Common strategies that were used by both the young driver and their parent during this learning process and their perceived effectiveness are also discussed. Those that were perceived to be most effective tended to focus on reducing the cognitive load for the young driver when introducing new information and skills.

Historical and Personal Perspectives on the Fall of the Berlin Wall, 1989: address to 20th anniversary forums.

The story of the fall of the Berlin Wall was an aspect of the “imagination gap” that we had to wrestle with as journalists covering the collapse of the Eastern Bloc in Europe. It was scarcely possible to believe what you found yourself reporting, and that work became a two-track process. On one hand a mass social movement was dictating the pace and direction of events; on the other, the institutional business of politics as usual, to provide a framework for all the change that was happening, had to be managed – and reported on. In later analyseds we could see, that crisis in the Soviet Union led to the crisis over the Berlin Wall; and from the fall of the Wall, came Germany’s reunification, and with that also, formation of the European Union as it is today. The government of the Federal Republic of Germany convinced its neighbours that a reunited Germany, within an expanded EU, would be a very acceptable “European Germany” -- not the leader of a “German Europe”. It committed itself financially, supporting the new Euro currency. The former communist states of Eastern Europe demanded to join and expand the EU; in order to remove themselves from the Soviet Union, enjoy human rights, and share in Western prosperity. So today, following on from the events of 1989, the European Union is an amalgam of 27 member countries, with close to 500 million citizens and accounting for 30 % of world Gross National Product.