922 resultados para The Great War


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fun Ṿilyam Poyzniaḳ. Miṭ der erloybnis fun der "Ameriḳan Dʹzshuʾish Ḳomiṭe"

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BACKGROUND Intravenous fluids are commonly prescribed in childhood. 0.9 % saline is the most-used fluid in pediatrics as resuscitation or maintenance solution. Experimental studies and observations in adults suggest that 0.9 % saline is a poor candidate for fluid resuscitation. Although anesthesiologists, intensive care specialists, perioperative physicians and nephrologists have been the most active in this debate, this issue deserves some physiopathological considerations also among pediatricians. RESULTS As compared with so-called "balanced" salt crystalloids such as lactated Ringer, administration of large volumes of 0.9 % saline has been associated with following deleterious effects: tendency to hyperchloremic metabolic acidosis (called dilution acidosis); acute kidney injury with reduced urine output and salt retention; damaged vascular permeability and stiffness, increase in proinflammatory mediators; detrimental effect on coagulation with tendency to blood loss; detrimental gastrointestinal perfusion and function; possible uneasiness at the bedside resulting in unnecessary administration of more fluids. Nevertheless, there is no firm evidence that these adverse effects are clinically relevant. CONCLUSIONS Intravenous fluid therapy is a medicine like insulin, chemotherapy or antibiotics. Prescribing fluids should fit the child's history and condition, consider the right dose at the right rate as well as the electrolyte levels and other laboratory variables. It is unlikely that a single type of fluid will be suitable for all pediatric patients. "Balanced" salt crystalloids, although more expensive, should be preferred for volume resuscitation, maintenance and perioperatively. Lactated Ringer appears unsuitable for patients at risk for brain edema and for those with overt or latent chloride-deficiency. Finally, in pediatrics there is a need for new fluids to be developed on the basis of a better understanding of the physiology and to be tested in well-designed trials.

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This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

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The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the Markov regime-switching models of Hamilton (1989) and Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to document the end of the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation in the US and the UK begin at different point in time. The explanations for the Great Moderation fall into generally three different categories -- good monetary policy, improved inventory management, or good luck. Summers (2005) argues that a combination of good monetary policy and better inventory management led to the Great Moderation. The end of the Great Moderation, however, occurs at approximately the same time in both the US and the UK. It seems unlikely that good monetary policy would turn into bad policy or that better inventory management would turn into worse management. Rather, the likely explanation comes from bad luck. Two likely culprits exist . energy-price and housing-price shocks.

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Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting outliers, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis disappears after GARCH adjustment once we incorporate the break in the variance equation.

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Signatur des Originals: S 36/F10889

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Signatur des Originals: S 36/F10890

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Digitalisiert in Kooperation mit dem YIVO Institute for Jewish Research am Center for Jewish History, NY