Bayesian inference and its application to meta-analysis of epidemiologic data

In Part One, the foundations of Bayesian inference are reviewed, and the technicalities of the Bayesian method are illustrated. Part Two applies the Bayesian meta-analysis program, the Confidence Profile Method (CPM), to clinical trial data and evaluates the merits of using Bayesian meta-analysis for overviews of clinical trials.^ The Bayesian method of meta-analysis produced similar results to the classical results because of the large sample size, along with the input of a non-preferential prior probability distribution. These results were anticipated through explanations in Part One of the mechanics of the Bayesian approach. ^

A comparative analysis of Texas and Louisiana Oil-field NORM Waste Policy

NORM (Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material) Waste Policies for the nation's oil and gas producing states have been in existence since the 1980's, when Louisiana was the first state to develop a NORM regulatory program in 1989. Since that time, expectations for NORM Waste Policies have evolved, as Health, Safety, Environment, and Social responsibility (HSE & SR) grows increasingly important to the public. Therefore, the oil and gas industry's safety and environmental performance record will face challenges in the future, about its best practices for managing the co-production of NORM wastes. ^ Within the United States, NORM is not federally regulated. The U.S. EPA claims it regulates NORM under CERCLA (superfund) and the Clean Water Act. Though, there are no universally applicable regulations for radium-based NORM waste. Therefore, individual states have taken responsibility for developing NORM regulatory programs, because of the potential radiological risk it can pose to man (bone and lung cancer) and his environment. This has led to inconsistencies in NORM Waste Policies as well as a NORM management gap in both state and federal regulatory structures. ^ Fourteen different NORM regulations and guidelines were compared between Louisiana and Texas, the nation's top two petroleum producing states. Louisiana is the country's top crude oil producer when production from its Federal offshore waters are included, and fourth in crude oil production, behind Texas, Alaska, and California when Federal offshore areas are excluded. Louisiana produces more petroleum products than any state but Texas. For these reasons, a comparative analysis between Louisiana and Texas was undertaken to identify differences in their NORM regulations and guidelines for managing, handling and disposing NORM wastes. Moreover, this analysis was undertaken because Texas is the most explored and drilled worldwide and yet appears to lag behind its neighboring state in terms of its NORM Waste Policy and developing an industry standard for handling, managing and disposing NORM. As a result of this analysis, fourteen recommendations were identified.^

A descriptive analysis of the consumers at farm stands outside WIC clinics

Because fruit and vegetable intake remains low in low-income populations, the attention of public health researchers has focused on different strategies to reach this population. One possible method of reaching low income populations is through government food assistance programs like the WIC's Farmers Market Nutrition Program (FMNP). This program provides vouchers to WIC recipients that are redeemable only at farmers' markets. In the summer of 2010, two farm stands near WIC clinics in Austin were surveyed in order to establish socio-demographic characteristics of the clientele of the markets. The overall purpose of this pilot study was to describe the clientele of the markets and to examine associations between food insecurity, acculturation, socio-demographic factors, and farmers' market participants' fruit and vegetable intake. The sample was a convenience sample of farmers' market customers. One hundred study participants completed self-administered surveys. Independent t-tests were used to explore the differences in means of fruit and vegetable intake according to acculturation and food insecurity levels. The overall mean (SD) of daily fruit and vegetable intake was 4.20±2.69 for customers of both markets. Significant differences were reported between the two markets in overall fruit and vegetable intake and specifically in the following: 100% juice (P=.023), fruit consumption (P=.028), green salad (P=.003), and salsa (P=.044). The differences showed that customers at the market in a more busy location were on average reporting eating more fruits and vegetables than customers at another market that was located in a more secluded location. When examined by level of food security, individuals who were more food secure consumed more fruit (P=.016). When examined by level of acculturation, the overall fruit and vegetable intake was not significantly different between levels of acculturation. The overall findings in this report suggest that the population at these markets consists of individuals who are food insecure and on government assistance programs. While there were no significant differences between fruit and vegetable intake, acculturation and food insecurity, this report suggests the need for culturally tailored interventions that serve the Hispanic population and would assist this population to become more food secure.^

A comparative state policy analysis of the adoption of birth defects surveillance legislation

Birth defects are the leading cause of infant mortality in the United States and are a major cause of lifetime disability. However, efforts to understand their causes have been hampered by a lack of population-specific data. During 1990–2004, 22 state legislatures responded to this need by proposing birth defects surveillance legislation (BDSL). The contrast between these states and those that did not pass BDSL provides an opportunity to better understand conditions associated with US public health policy diffusion. ^ This study identifies key state-specific determinants that predict: (1) the introduction of birth defects surveillance legislation (BDSL) onto states' formal legislative agenda, and (2) the successful adoption of these laws. Secondary aims were to interpret these findings in a theoretically sound framework and to incorporate evidence from three analytical approaches. ^ The study begins with a comparative case study of Texas and Oregon (states with divergent BDSL outcomes), including a review of historical documentation and content analysis of key informant interviews. After selecting and operationalizing explanatory variables suggested by the case study, Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) was applied to publically available data to describe important patterns of variation among 37 states. Results from logistic regression were compared to determine whether the two methods produced consistent findings. ^ Themes emerging from the comparative case study included differing budgetary conditions and the significance of relationships within policy issue networks. However, the QCA and statistical analysis pointed to the importance of political parties and contrasting societal contexts. Notably, state policies that allow greater access to citizen-driven ballot initiatives were consistently associated with lower likelihood of introducing BDSL. ^ Methodologically, these results indicate that a case study approach, while important for eliciting valuable context-specific detail, may fail to detect the influence of overarching, systemic variables, such as party competition. However, QCA and statistical analyses were limited by a lack of existing data to operationalize policy issue networks, and thus may have downplayed the impact of personal interactions. ^ This study contributes to the field of health policy studies in three ways. First, it emphasizes the importance of collegial and consistent relationships among policy issue network members. Second, it calls attention to political party systems in predicting policy outcomes. Finally, a novel approach to interpreting state data in a theoretically significant manner (QCA) has been demonstrated.^

Description and analysis of variation in dairy product and concomitant nutrient purchases between Hispanic and non -Hispanic households using a panel of shoppers' purchase records

The purpose of this research was development of a method of estimating nutrient availability in populations as approximated by supermarket purchase records. Demographic information describing 12,516 panel households was obtained from a marketing and advertising program operated by H. E. Butt Grocery Company of San Antonio, Texas. A non-probability sample of 2,161 households meeting expenditure criteria was selected and all purchases of dairy products for this sample of households were organized into a database constructed to facilitate the retrieval, aggregation, and analysis of dairy product purchases and their nutrient contents. Two hypotheses were tested: (1) no difference would be found between Hispanic and non-Hispanic purchases of dairy product categories during the study period and (2) no difference would be found between Hispanic and non-Hispanic purchases of nutrients contained in those dairy products during the thirteen-week study period.^ Food purchase records were used to estimate nutrient exposure on a weekly, per capita basis for Hispanic and non-Hispanic households by linking some 40,000 dairy purchase Universal Product code (UPC) numbers with food composition values contained in USDA Handbook 8-1. Results of this study suggest Hispanic sample households consistently purchased fewer dairy products than did non-Hispanic sample households and consequently had fewer nutrients available from dairy purchases. While weekly expenditures for dairy products among the sample households remained relatively constant during the study period, shifts in the types of dairy products purchased were observed. The effect of ethnicity on dairy product and nutrient purchases was significant over the thirteen-week period. A database consisting of customer, household, and purchase information can be developed to successfully associate food item UPC numbers with a standard reference of food composition to estimate nutrient availability in a population over extended periods of time. ^

Analysis of interval -censored events in hypertension studies: Evaluation of treatment of coronary heart disease

Many statistical studies feature data with both exact-time and interval-censored events. While a number of methods currently exist to handle interval-censored events and multivariate exact-time events separately, few techniques exist to deal with their combination. This thesis develops a theoretical framework for analyzing a multivariate endpoint comprised of a single interval-censored event plus an arbitrary number of exact-time events. The approach fuses the exact-time events, modeled using the marginal method of Wei, Lin, and Weissfeld, with a piecewise-exponential interval-censored component. The resulting model incorporates more of the information in the data and also removes some of the biases associated with the exclusion of interval-censored events. A simulation study demonstrates that our approach produces reliable estimates for the model parameters and their variance-covariance matrix. As a real-world data example, we apply this technique to the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP) clinical trial, which features three correlated events: clinical non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal myocardial infarction (two exact-time events), and silent myocardial infarction (one interval-censored event). ^

Salinity of the Eocene Arctic Ocean from oxygen isotope analysis of fish bone carbonate

Stable isotope analysis was performed on the structural carbonate of fish bone apatite from early and early middle Eocene samples (~55 to ~45 Ma) recently recovered from the Lomonosov Ridge by Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 302 (the Arctic Coring Expedition). The d18O values of the Eocene samples ranged from -6.84 per mil to -2.96 per mil Vienna Peedee belemnite, with a mean value of -4.89 per mil, compared to 2.77 per mil for a Miocene sample in the overlying section. An average salinity of 21 to 25 per mil was calculated for the Eocene Arctic, compared to 35 per mil for the Miocene, with lower salinities during the Paleocene Eocene thermal maximum, the Azolla event at ~48.7 Ma, and a third previously unidentified event at ~47.6 Ma. At the Azolla event, where the organic carbon content of the sediment reaches a maximum, a positive d13C excursion was observed, indicating unusually high productivity in the surface waters.

Sedimentological and clay mineralogical analysis of ODP sites in the central Fram Strait

This study presents the results of high-resolution sedimentological and clay mineralogical investigations on sediments from ODP Sites 908A and 909AlC located in the central Fram Strait. The objective was to reconstruct the paleoclimate and paleoceanography of the high northern latitudes since the middle Miocene. The sediments are characterised in particular by a distinctive input of ice-rafted material, which most probably occurs since 6 Ma and very likely since 15 Ma. A change in the source area at 1 1.2 Ma is clearly marked by variations within clay mineral composition and increasing accumulation rates. This is interpreted as a result of an increase in water mass exchange through the Fram Strait. A further period of increasing exchange between 4-3 Ma is identified by granulometric investigations and points to a synchronous intensification of deep water production in the North Atlantic during this time interval. A comparison of the components of coarse and clay fraction clearly shows that both are not delivered by the Same transport process. The input of the clay fraction can be related to transport mechanisms through sea ice and glaciers and very likely also through oceanic currents. A reconstruction of source areas for clay minerals is possible only with some restrictions. High smectite contents in middle and late Miocene sediments indicate a background signal produced by soil formation together with sediment input, possibly originating from the Greenland- Scotland Ridge. The applicability of clay mineral distribution as a climate proxy for the high northern latitudes can be confirmed. Based on a comparison of sediments from Site 909C, characterised by the smectite/illite and chlorite ratio, with regional and global climatic records (oxygen isotopes), a middle Miocene cooling phase between 14.8-14.6 Ma can be proposed. A further cooling phase between 10-9 Ma clearly shows similarities in its Progress toward drastic decrease in carbonate sedimentation and preservation in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The modification in sea water and atmosphere chemistry may represent a possible link due to the built-up of equatorial carbonate platforms. Between 4.8-4.6 Ma clay mineral distribution indicates a distinct cooling trend in the Fram Strait region. This is not accompanied by relevant glaciation, which would otherwise be indicated by the coarse fraction. The intensification of glaciation in the northern hemisphere is distinctly documented by a rapid increase of illite and chlorite starting from 3.3 Ma, which corresponds to oxygen isotope data trends from North Atlantic.

(Data S1) Palynological analysis of IODP and ODP sediment cores around the Antarctic margin

The circum-Antarctic Southern Ocean is an important region for global marine food webs and carbon cycling because of sea-ice formation and its unique plankton ecosystem. However, the mechanisms underlying the installation of this distinct ecosystem and the geological timing of its development remain unknown. Here, we show, on the basis of fossil marine dinoflagellate cyst records, that a major restructuring of the Southern Ocean plankton ecosystem occurred abruptly and concomitant with the first major Antarctic glaciation in the earliest Oligocene (~33.6 million years ago). This turnover marks a regime shift in zooplankton-phytoplankton interactions and community structure, which indicates the appearance of eutrophic and seasonally productive environments on the Antarctic margin. We conclude that earliest Oligocene cooling, ice-sheet expansion, and subsequent sea-ice formation were important drivers of biotic evolution in the Southern Ocean.

Detailed analysis of the organic carbon content in sediment cores M0002 and M0004

During IODP Expedition 302 (Arctic Coring Expedition-ACEX), the first scientific drilling campaign in the permantly ice-covered central Arctic Ocean, a 430 m thick sequence of upper Cretaceaous to Quaternary sediments has been drilled. The lower half of this sequence is composed of organic-carbon-rich (black shale-type) sediments with total organic carbon contents of about 1-14%. Significant amounts of the organic matter preserved in these sediments is of algae-type origin and accumulated under anoxic/euxinic conditions. Here, for the first time detailed data on the source-rock potential of these black shales are presented, indicating that most of the Eocene sediments have a (fair to) good source-rock potential, prone to generate a gas/oil mixture. The source-rock potential of the Campanian and upper Paleocene sediments, on the other hand, is rather low. The presence of oil or gas already generated in situ, however, can be ruled out due to the immaturity of the ACEX sediments.

Sporomorphs and quantitative analysis of the Eocene record from IODP Hole 318-U1356A

The early Eocene epoch was characterized by extreme global warmth, which in terrestrial settings was characterized by an expansion of near-tropical vegetation belts into the high latitudes. During the middle to late Eocene, global cooling caused the retreat of tropical vegetation to lower latitudes. In high-latitude settings, near-tropical vegetation was replaced by temperate floras. This floral change has recently been traced as far south as Antarctica, where along the Wilkes Land margin paratropical forests thrived during the early Eocene and temperate Nothofagus forests developed during the middle Eocene. Here we provide both qualitative and quantitative palynological data for this floral turnover based on a sporomorph record recovered at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1356 off the Wilkes Land margin. Following the nearest living relative concept and based on a comparison with modern vegetation types, we examine the structure and diversity patterns of the Eocene vegetation along the Wilkes Land margin. Our results indicate that the early Eocene forests along the Wilkes Land margin were characterized by a diverse canopy composed of plants that today occur in tropical settings; their richness pattern was similar to that of present-day forests from New Caledonia. The middle Eocene forests were characterized by a canopy dominated by Nothofagus and exhibited richness patterns similar to modern Nothofagus forests from New Zealand.

Stable isotope analysis of benthic foraminifera and sedimentology on ODP Site 162-984

Sediments recovered at ODP Site 984 on the Reykjanes Ridge provided multicentennial-scale records (SST, planktic and benthic delta18O, IRD and magnetic susceptibility) of Late Pliocene climate change over the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG), 2.95-2.82 Ma. Short-term climate variations prior and after the onset of continent-wide glaciation were compared to test the hypothesis, whether Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles may have been triggered by continental ice breakouts. By means of spectral analyses for two selected interglacial stages prior to and after NHG (G15 and G1), we found that climate variability resembled that of the Holocene and the mid-Pliocene warm period. In contrast, DO-like periodicities near 1470, 2900, and 4400 yr indeed only occurred in glacial stages after the onset of NHG (G14, G6, and 104), but hardly in stage G20 prior to the onset. These results suggest a causal link between DO cycles and the Late Pliocene onset of major NHG and ice breakouts in the North Atlantic. This data set provides all primary data and spectral analysis related to this scientific work.

Pollen analysis of ODP Hole 117-720A (Appendix B)

Pollen analytical studies of the ODP Site 720 cores revealed the wide development of the coniferous forest, which mainly composed by Pinus, Picea, Abies and Cedrus deodara, along the Indus river since the early Pleistocene.