Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Schistosomiasis control in China

After three decades' efforts, schistosomiasis japonica were controlled in one-third (4/12) of endemic provinces and 68.2 (259/380) of endemic counties throughout the country. The remaining 121 endemic counties are located primarily in the lake and mountainous regions. The epidemiological and ecological features of the lake and mountainous areas are different from the other endemic areas. The major schistosomiasis control efforts in China can be characterized as follows: (1) Application of centralized leadership and management, since schistosomiasis control is a task not only of the Ministry of Public Health, but also of all local governments in the endemic areas; (2) Integration of actions taken by various departments or bureaus, such as agriculture, water conservation and public health; (3) Promotion of mass participation; (4) Organization of strong professional teams; (5) Raising sufficient funds. Strategies on schistosomiasis control applied in different areas are divided into three levels: (1) In the areas where the schistosomiasis has been successfully controlled, surveillance must be maintained and immediate action should be taken where new infections occur and/or vector snails are found, so that control can be reestablished quickly; (2) In the areas where schistosomiasis has been partially controlled, any residents and/or live-stock infected should be examined and treated promptly with due care, and environment modifying and/or mollusciding must be used to eliminate the remaining snails; (3) In the areas where transmission has not been controlled, the main strategy is to control morbidity. Mass or selective chemotherapy with praziquental should be applied to both infected persosns and the live-stock, and environment modification for the snail-ridden areas should be taken but should be coordinated with agriculture where possible. Advance cases must be treated; and epidemics of Katayama fever prevented; water supply and sanitation shoud be improved and health education emphasized. Annual mass or selective chemotherapy with praziquental both reduces the prevalence rate and decreases the intensity of the infection for inhabitants and live-stock. As a consequence of the therapy a low prevalence rate can be obtained in a short time. The length of such arrangement period can be decided in accordance with the prevalence of the infection before the drug program is begun. Therefore,a maintenance phase is urgently needed. As China's ecomony expands and people's living standard rises, schistosomiasis will be controlled more effectively and successfully.

The New Institutions of Transatlantic Aviation

This article focuses on the institutions of transatlantic aviation since 1945, and aims at extracting from this historical process topical policy implications. Using the methodology of an analytic narrative, we describe and explain the creation of the international cartel institutions in the 1940s, their operation throughout the 1950s and 60s, their increasing vulnerability in the 1970s, and then the progressive liberalization of the whole system. Our analytic narrative has a natural end, marked by the signing of an Open Skies Agreement between the US and the EU in 2007. We place particular explanatory power on (a) the progressive liberalization of the US domestic market, and (b) the active role of the European Commission in Europe. More specifically, we explain these developments using two frameworks. First, a “political limit pricing” model, which seemed promising, then failed, and then seemed promising again because it failed. Second, a strategic bargaining model inspired by Susanne Schmidt’s analysis of how the European Commission uses the threat of infringement proceedings to force member governments into line and obtain the sole negotiating power in transatlantic aviation.

Análisis de la relación entre la formación y el empleo en el caso de las trabajadoras en el cuidado en domicilio de personas en situación de dependencia

El proyecto de investigación desarrollado durante el período de la beca se inserta en el marco del proyecto de investigación titulado "Especialidad de formación, especialidad de empleo y resultados de inserción laboral" (ESFOREM). La primera línea de investigación desarrollada se centró en el análisis macroestadístico de la relación entre la formación y el empleo en el caso de los jóvenes españoles a partir del análisis estadísitico de los datos proporcionados por la Encuesta ETEFIL (INE, 2005). El propósito de la investigación era cotejar en qué medida los jóvenes con nivel educativo no universitario estaban trabajando de aquello para lo cual se habían formado específicamente según el Catálogo Nacional de Cualificaciones (adecuación normativa) y hasta qué punto la no correspondencia entre el empleo (según su nivel y especialidad) y la formación (según su nivel y especialidad) suponía una fracaso respecto a su inserción laboral. Enfoques dominantes sobre la relación entre formación y empleo parten del supuesto normativo de que la correspondencia entre especialidad de formación y especialidad de empleo es la situación óptima y se postula que la dinámica del mercado de trabajo tiende a propiciarla. El proyecto ESFOREM tenía una segunda línea de investigación que planteaba un análisis cualitativo de dos subsectores específicos. Esta tesis doctoral se inserta en la segunda línea de investigación desarrollada y tiene como propósito analizar y explicar, mediante una estrategia de investigación cualitativa un caso específico de modalidad de relación en la que no existe correspondencia entre formación y empleo, de forma tal de poder analizar y explicar el papel activo que los agentes e instituciones tienen en la configuración de la relación. El caso seleccionado ha sido del "empleo de cuidado en domicilio depersonas en situación de dependencia", con el objetivo de contribuir a profundizar en el estudio de un sector de empleo que es cada vez más emergente y que está fuertemente feminizado. Dicho estudio se realiza a nivel comparado y municipal entre Montevideo y Barcelona.

Environmental factors and social entrepreneurship

Social entrepreneurship has been a subject of growing interest by academics and governments, however little still being known about environmental factors that affect this phenomenon. The main objective of this study is to analyze how these factors affect social entrepreneurial activity, in the light of the institutional economic theory as the conceptual framework. Using linear regression analysis for a sample of 49 countries, is studied the impact of informal institutions (social needs, societal attitudes and education) and formal institutions (public spending, access to finance and governance effectiveness) on social entrepreneurial activity. The findings suggest that while societal attitudes increase the rates of social entrepreneurship, public spending has a negative relationship with this phenomenon. Finally, the empirical evidence found could be useful for the definition of government policies on promoting social entrepreneurship.

Decentralization, happiness and the perception of institutions

This paper analyses whether the different powers and resources at the disposal of local and regional governments across Europe deliver greater satisfaction with political institutions and lead to greater personal happiness. The analysis uses microdata from the four available waves of the European social survey (2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008), including more than 160,000 observations of individuals living in 29 European countries. Our results reveal that political and fiscal decentralization have a positive and significant effect on individuals’ overall happiness. Fiscal decentralization also exerts a significant effect on the level of satisfaction with political and economic institutions and with the education and health systems, whereas the effect of political decentralization on these variables is more limited. The results show that citizens seem to be happier with the actual capacity of their local governments to deliver than with the general principle that they can have a say on their daily politics and policies. Keywords: Happiness, well-being, satisfaction, fiscal and political decentralization, Europe. JEL codes: H11, H77

Economic growth and inequality: the role of fiscal policies

This paper analyses the impact of different instruments of fiscal policy on economic growth as well as on income inequality, using an unbalanced panel of 43 upper-middle and high income countries for the period 1972-2006. We consider and estimate two individual equations explaining growth and inequality in order to assess the incidence of different fiscal policies. Firstly, our approach considers imposing orthogonal assumptions between growth and inequality in both equations, and secondly, it allows growth to be included in the inequality equation, and inequality to be included in the growth equation. The empirical results suggest that an increase in the size of government measured through current expenditures and direct taxes diminishes economic growth while reducing inequality, being public investment the only fiscal policy that may break this trade-off between efficiency and equity, since increases in this item reduces inequality without harming output. Therefore, the results reflect that the trade-off between efficiency and equity that governments often confront when designing their fiscal policies may be avoided.

The Political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politicians perceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians make too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannot be fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistent with a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection. They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economic uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Simulating the Impact of Sectorial Productivity Gains on Two Regional Economies: Key Sectors from a Supply Side Perspective

In this paper we simulate and analyse the economic impact that sectorial productivity gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular we study the quantitative effect that each sector’s productivity gain has on household welfare (real disposable income and equivalent variation), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government’s net income (net taxation revenues of social transfers to households). The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which we assume perfect competition and cleared markets, including factor markets. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow us to identify those sectors with the greatest impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: Productivity gains, key sectors, computable general equilibrium

Does the EU financing system contribute to shadow economic activity?

Financial contributions to the EU budget depend basically on official GDP. This means that countries with higher shadow economic activity contribute less than they should contribute in a system based on actual GDP and therefore could reduce their incentive to fight against such activities. In this paper we investigate if the EU financing system really has an influence on the intensity with which governments in EU member states fight against shadow economic activity. We find that the EU net contributors significantly fight more intensively against shadow economic activity while EU net receivers significantly fight less. As a result, shadow economic activity is higher in net receiver and lower in net contributor countries than it were in comparison with a scenario of nationally balanced EU funding. Quantitatively and averaged over the time period 2001-2007, the diagnosed effect amounts to a stimulation of hidden economic activity by almost 10% for particular economies. JEL classification: C31, D63, F33, H21, H26. Keywords: EU financing system, shadow economy, tax auditing.

Physical activity in 22 African countries: results from the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Baseline physical activity data are needed to effectively plan programs and policies to prevent noncommunicable diseases, but for many African countries these data are lacking. PURPOSE: To describe and compare levels and patterns of physical activity among adults across 22 African countries. METHODS: Data from 57,038 individuals from 22 countries (11 national and 11 subnational samples) that participated in the STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance (2003-2009) were analyzed in 2010. The validated Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) was used to assess days and duration of physical activity at work, for transport, and during leisure time in a typical week. RESULTS: Overall, 83.8% of men and 75.7% of women met WHO physical activity recommendations (at least 150 minutes of moderate activity per week or equivalent). Country prevalence ranged from 46.8% (Mali) to 96.0% (Mozambique). Physical activity, both at work and for transport, including walking, had large contributions to overall physical activity, while physical activity during leisure time was rare in the analyzed countries. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity levels varied greatly across African countries and population subgroups. Leisure time activity was consistently low. These data will be useful to inform policymakers and to guide interventions to promote physical activity.

Policy Credibility and Delegation to Independent Regulatory Agencies: A Comparative Empirical Analysis

Independent regulatory agencies are one of the main institutional features of the 'rising regulatory state' in Western Europe. Governments are increasingly willing to abandon their regulatory competencies and to delegate them to specialized institutions that are at least partially beyond their control. This article examines the empirical consistency of one particular explanation of this phenomenon, namely the credibility hypothesis, claiming that governments delegate powers so as to enhance the credibility of their policies. Three observable implications are derived from the general hypothesis, linking credibility and delegation to veto players, complexity and interdependence. An independence index is developed to measure agency independence, which is then used in a multivariate analysis where the impact of credibility concerns on delegation is tested. The analysis relies on an original data set comprising independence scores for thirty-three regulators. Results show that the credibility hypothesis can explain a good deal of the variation in delegation. The economic nature of regulation is a strong determinant of agency independence, but is mediated by national institutions in the form of veto players.

IPH response to DHSSPS and Food Standards Agency (NI) Front of Pack Labelling consultation

From 2016, it will be mandatory for most pre-packed food to carry nutrition labelling.  This provides an opportunity to review the provision of additional nutrition labelling that is provided voluntarily on the front of packs.  The Governments across the UK are committed to the provision of nutritional information to help consumers make better informed food choices. Key points from IPH response Obesity and related chronic conditions are already very prevalent and are expected to increase over the next decade, placing greater financial burden on health care services. Helping consumers to make informed choices about their diet is an important aspect of tackling obesity. Providing clear consistent and easy to understand front of pack (FoP) nutrition information is important in helping consumers to make healthy choices. IPH would support FoP nutrition information using the traffic light labelling scheme and High/Medium/Low text. FoP nutrition labelling should be supported by a public information campaign to educate consumers about portion sizes and recommended daily intakes of fat, sugar and salt. IPH would support a nutrition labelling approach which empowers and enables consumers to take responsibility for their own health through informed dietary choices. The FoP traffic light labelling scheme has the potential to encourage healthier product formulation as manufacturers pursue market share. This in turn would contribute to wider availability of healthier products.

IPH response to 'Towards a Childcare Strategy' (Northern Ireland)

The remit of the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is to promote cooperation for public health between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the areas of research and information, capacity building and policy advice. Our approach is to support Departments of Health and their agencies in both jurisdictions, and maximise the benefits of all-island cooperation to achieve practical benefits for people in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Giving every child the best start in life is recognised by governments worldwide as the most effective way to improve life chances and health outcomes.  This is one of IPH’s key strategic action areas in our Business Plan and we endorse the need for early intervention, particularly in tackling health inequalities and improving the health and wellbeing of children in the most disadvantaged communities.  International evidence is increasingly pointing towards investment in the early years as a critical component of any sensible approach to improving population health and tackling health inequalities across the life course (WHO, 2008 and Marmot, 2010).  It is also apparent that Northern Ireland public policy is now reorienting towards achieving better and fairer outcomes in the early years, as demonstrated through the recent draft public health strategy (DHSSPS, 2012a) and the draft early years strategy (Department of Education, 2012).

Comparison of IPH prevalence estimates with other survey-based estimates

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland publishes estimates and forecasts of the prevalence of chronic health conditions for national and subnational areas on the island of Ireland. The estimates and forecasts are based on statistical models of nationally representative health survey data that estimate the risk of having the condition. The risks of having the condition are then applied to population estimates and projections. The purpose of this document is to: 1. Compare IPH prevalence estimates with prevalence estimates from other health surveys on the island. 2. Highlight the methodological issues in comparing prevalence estimates from different surveys.