A low dimensional Kalman filter for systems with lagged observables

This note describes how the Kalman filter can be modified to allow for thevector of observables to be a function of lagged variables without increasing the dimensionof the state vector in the filter. This is useful in applications where it is desirable to keepthe dimension of the state vector low. The modified filter and accompanying code (whichnests the standard filter) can be used to compute (i) the steady state Kalman filter (ii) thelog likelihood of a parameterized state space model conditional on a history of observables(iii) a smoothed estimate of latent state variables and (iv) a draw from the distribution oflatent states conditional on a history of observables.

Radial measures of public services deficit for regional allocation of public funds

The goal of this paper is to present an optimal resource allocation model for the regional allocation of public service inputs. Theproposed solution leads to maximise the relative public service availability in regions located below the best availability frontier, subject to exogenous budget restrictions and equality ofaccess for equal need criteria (equity-based notion of regional needs). The construction of non-parametric deficit indicators is proposed for public service availability by a novel application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models, whose results offer advantages for the evaluation and improvement of decentralised public resource allocation systems. The method introduced in this paper has relevance as a resource allocation guide for the majority of services centrally funded by the public sector in a given country, such as health care, basic and higher education, citizen safety, justice, transportation, environmental protection, leisure, culture, housing and city planning, etc.

Radial forearm free flap donor site morbidity: ulnar-based transposition flap vs split-thickness skin graft.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate morbidity associated with the radial forearm free flap donor site and to compare functional and aesthetic outcomes of ulnar-based transposition flap (UBTF) vs split-thickness skin graft (STSG) closure of the donor site.¦DESIGN: Case-control study.¦SETTING: Tertiary care institution.¦PATIENTS: The inclusion criteria were flap size not exceeding 30 cm(2), patient availability for a single follow-up visit, and performance of surgery at least 6 months previously. Forty-four patients were included in the study and were reviewed. Twenty-two patients had UBTF closure, and 22 had STSG closure.¦MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Variables analyzed included wrist mobility, Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire scores, pinch and grip strength (using a dynamometer), and hand sensitivity (using monofilament testing over the radial nerve distribution). In analyses of operated arms vs nonoperated arms, variables obtained only for the operated arms included Vancouver Scar Scale scores and visual analog scale scores for Aesthetics and Overall Arm Function.¦RESULTS: The mean (SD) wrist extension was significantly better in the UBTF group (56.0° [10.4°] for nonoperated arms and 62.0° [9.7°] for operated arms) than in the STSG group (59.0° [7.1°] for nonoperated arms and 58.4° [12.1°] for operated arms) (P = .02). The improvement in wrist range of motion for the UBTF group approached statistical significance (P = .07). All other variables (Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire scores, pinch and grip strength, hand sensitivity, and visual analog scale scores) were significantly better for nonoperated arms vs operated arms, but no significant differences were observed between the UBTF and STSG groups.¦CONCLUSIONS: The radial forearm free flap donor site carries significant morbidity. Donor site UBTF closure was associated with improved wrist extension and represents an alternative method of closure for small donor site defects.

Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

Period-Luminosity-Colour distribution and classification of Galactic oxygen-rich LPVs I. Luminosity calibrations

The absolute K magnitudes and kinematic parameters of about 350 oxygen-rich Long-Period Variable stars are calibrated, by means of an up-to-date maximum-likelihood method, using HIPPARCOS parallaxes and proper motions together with radial velocities and, as additional data, periods and V-K colour indices. Four groups, differing by their kinematics and mean magnitudes, are found. For each of them, we also obtain the distributions of magnitude, period and de-reddened colour of the base population, as well as de-biased period-luminosity-colour relations and their two-dimensional projections. The SRa semiregulars do not seem to constitute a separate class of LPVs. The SRb appear to belong to two populations of different ages. In a PL diagram, they constitute two evolutionary sequences towards the Mira stage. The Miras of the disk appear to pulsate on a lower-order mode. The slopes of their de-biased PL and PC relations are found to be very different from the ones of the Oxygen Miras of the LMC. This suggests that a significant number of so-called Miras of the LMC are misclassified. This also suggests that the Miras of the LMC do not constitute a homogeneous group, but include a significant proportion of metal-deficient stars, suggesting a relatively smooth star formation history. As a consequence, one may not trivially transpose the LMC period-luminosity relation from one galaxy to the other.

Short and long-term effects of tillage systems and nutrient sources on soil physical properties of a Southern Brazilian Hapludox

Soil tillage promotes changes in soil structure. The magnitude of the changes varies with the nature of the soil, tillage system and soil water content and decreases over time after tillage. The objective of this study was to evaluate short-term (one year period) and long-term (nine year period) effects of soil tillage and nutrient sources on some physical properties of a very clayey Hapludox. Five tillage systems were evaluated: no-till (NT), chisel plow + one secondary disking (CP), primary + two (secondary) diskings (CT), CT with burning of crop residues (CTb), and CT with removal of crop residues from the field (CTr), in combination with five nutrient sources: control without nutrient application (C); mineral fertilizers, according to technical recommendations for each crop (MF); 5 Mg ha-1 yr-1 of poultry litter (wetmatter) (PL); 60 m³ ha-1 yr-1 of cattle slurry (CS) and; 40 m³ ha-1 yr-1 of swine slurry (SS). Bulk density (BD), total porosity (TP), and parameters related to the water retention curve (macroporosity, mesoporosity and microporosity) were determined after nine years and at five sampling dates during the tenth year of the experiment. Soil physical properties were tillage and time-dependent. Tilled treatments increased total porosity and macroporosity, and reduced bulk density in the surface layer (0.00-0.05 m), but this effect decreased over time after tillage operations due to natural soil reconsolidation, since no external stress was applied in this period. Changes in pore size distribution were more pronounced in larger and medium pore diameter classes. The bulk density was greatest in intermediate layers in all tillage treatments (0.05-0.10 and 0.12-0.17 m) and decreased down to the deepest layer (0.27-0.32 m), indicating a more compacted layer around 0.05-0.20 m. Nutrient sources did not significantly affect soil physical and hydraulic properties studied.

Plaque characteristics and arterial remodeling in coronary and peripheral arterial systems.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined plaque characteristics among multiple arterial beds in vivo. The purpose of this study was to compare the plaque morphology and arterial remodeling between coronary and peripheral arteries using gray-scale and radiofrequency intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) at clinical presentation. METHODS AND RESULTS: IVUS imaging was performed in 68 patients with coronary and 93 with peripheral artery lesions (29 carotid, 50 renal, and 14 iliac arteries). Plaques were classified as fibroatheroma (VH-FA) (further subclassified as thin-capped [VH-TCFA] and thick-capped [VH-ThCFA]), fibrocalcific plaque (VH-FC) and pathological intimal thickening (VH-PIT). Plaque rupture (13% of coronary, 7% of carotid, 6% of renal, and 7% of iliac arteries; P = NS) and VH-TCFA (37% of coronary, 24% of carotid, 16% of renal, and 7% of iliac arteries; P = 0.02) were observed in all arteries. Compared with coronary arteries, VH-FA was less frequently observed in renal (P < 0.001) and iliac arteries (P < 0.006). Lesions with positive remodeling demonstrated more characteristics of VH-FA in coronary (84% vs. 25%, P < 0.001), carotid (72% vs. 20%, P = 0.001), and renal arteries (42% vs. 4%, P = 0.001) compared with those with intermediate/negative remodeling. There was positive relationship between remodeling index and percent necrotic area in all four arteries. CONCLUSIONS: Atherosclerotic plaque phenotypes were heterogeneous among four different arteries; renal and iliac arteries had more stable phenotypes compared with coronary artery. In contrast, the associations of remodeling pattern with plaque phenotype and composition were similar among the various arterial beds.

Aggregate stability as affected by short and long-term tillage systems and nutrient sources of a hapludox in southern Brazil

The ability of a soil to keep its structure under the erosive action of water is usually high in natural conditions and decreases under frequent and intensive cultivation. The effect of five tillage systems (NT = no-till; CP = chisel plowing and one secondary disking; CT = primary and two secondary distings; CTb = CT with crop residue burning; and CTr = CT with removal of crop residues from the field), combined with five nutrient sources (C = control, no nutrient application; MF = mineral fertilizers according to technical recommendations for each crop; PL = 5 Mg ha-1 y-1 fresh matter of poultry litter; CM = 60 m³ ha-1 y-1 slurry cattle manure; and SM = 40 m³ ha-1 y-1 slurry swine manure) on wet-aggregate stability was determined after nine years (four sampled soil layers) and on five sampling dates in the 10th year (two sampled soil layers) of the experiment. The size distribution of the air-dried aggregates was strongly affected by soil bulk density, and greater values of geometric mean diameter (GMD AD) found in some soil tillage or layer may be partly due to the higher compaction degree. After nine years, the GMD AD on the surface was greater in NT and CP compared to conventional tillage systems (CT, CTb and CTr), due to the higher organic matter content, as well as less soil mobilization. Aggregate stability in water, on the other hand, was affected by the low variation in previous gravimetric moisture of aggregates, which contributed to a high coefficient of variation of this attribute. The geometric mean diameter of water-stable aggregates (GMD WS) was highest in the 0.00-0.05 m layer in the NT system, in the layers 0.05-0.10 and 0.12-0.17 m in the CT, and values were intermediate in CP. The stability index (SI) in the surface layers was greater in treatments where crop residues were kept in the field (NT, CP and CT), which is associated with soil organic matter content. No differences were found in the layer 0.27-0.32 m. The effect of nutrient sources on GMD AD and GMD WS was small and did not affect SI.

Diffusionless first-order phase transitions in systems with frozen configurational degrees of freedom

We consider systems that can be described in terms of two kinds of degree of freedom. The corresponding ordering modes may, under certain conditions, be coupled to each other. We may thus assume that the primary ordering mode gives rise to a diffusionless first-order phase transition. The change of its thermodynamic properties as a function of the secondary-ordering-mode state is then analyzed. Two specific examples are discussed. First, we study a three-state Potts model in a binary system. Using mean-field techniques, we obtain the phase diagram and different properties of the system as a function of the distribution of atoms on the different lattice sites. In the second case, the properties of a displacive structural phase transition of martensitic type in a binary alloy are studied as a function of atomic order. Because of the directional character of the martensitic-transition mechanism, we find only a very weak dependence of the entropy on atomic order. Experimental results are found to be in quite good agreement with theoretical predictions.

Physical properties of a rhodic haplustox under two sugarcane harvesting systems

This study had the purpose of evaluating the effects of two management types of sugarcane: harvesting of burnt cane (BCH) and mechanized harvesting of unburnt green cane (MCH), on some soil physical properties of a dystrophic Rhodic Haplustox. The data were then compared with results for the same soil type under native forest. A completely randomized design was used, with three treatments and 20 replications. The following characteristics were determined: organic matter, aggregate stability, soil bulk density, and porosity at depths of 0-0.20 m and soil penetration resistance. After 15 years of cultivation, there were some alterations in the soil under cane burnt before harvesting, evidenced by a drop in the weighted average diameter of stable aggregates in water and increased soil bulk density. Significant changes were also detected in total porosity and pore distribution under both harvesting systems. Critical values for penetration resistance were observed in the area under mechanized sugar cane harvesting, with a value of 4.5 MPa in the 40-55 cm layer. This value is considered high and could indicate compaction and restriction of root growth. Soil properties under the green cane (unburned) management system were closest to those of the soil under native forest.

Patterns of calcium-binding proteins in human inferior colliculus: identification of subdivisions and evidence for putative parallel systems.

The subdivisions of human inferior colliculus are currently based on Golgi and Nissl-stained preparations. We have investigated the distribution of calcium-binding protein immunoreactivity in the human inferior colliculus and found complementary or mutually exclusive localisations of parvalbumin versus calbindin D-28k and calretinin staining. The central nucleus of the inferior colliculus but not the surrounding regions contained parvalbumin-positive neuronal somata and fibres. Calbindin-positive neurons and fibres were concentrated in the dorsal aspect of the central nucleus and in structures surrounding it: the dorsal cortex, the lateral lemniscus, the ventrolateral nucleus, and the intercollicular region. In the dorsal cortex, labelling of calbindin and calretinin revealed four distinct layers.Thus, calcium-binding protein reactivity reveals in the human inferior colliculus distinct neuronal populations that are anatomically segregated. The different calcium-binding protein-defined subdivisions may belong to parallel auditory pathways that were previously demonstrated in non-human primates, and they may constitute a first indication of parallel processing in human subcortical auditory structures.

Microbial biomass and soil chemical properties under different land use systems in northeastern Pará

The increase in agricultural production in the Brazilian Amazon region is mostly a result of the agricultural frontier expansion, into areas previously influenced by humans or of native vegetation. At the same time, burning is still used to clear areas in small-scale agricultural systems, leading to a loss of the soil productive capacity shortly after, forcing the opening of new areas. This study had the objective of evaluating the effect of soil preparation methods that involve plant residue shredding, left on the surface or incorporated to the soil, with or without chemical fertilization, on the soil chemical and biological properties. The experiment was conducted in 1995, in an experimental field of Yellow Latosol (Oxisol) of the Embrapa Amazônia Oriental, northeastern Pará (Brazil). The experiment was arranged in randomized blocks, in a 2x6 factorial design, with two management systems and six treatments evaluated twice. The management systems consisted of rice (Oriza sativa), followed by cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) with manioc (Manihot esculenta). In the first system the crops were planted in two consecutive cycles, followed by a three-year fallow period (natural regrowth); the second system consisted of one cultivation cycle and was left fallow for three years. The following treatments were applied to the secondary forest vegetation: slash and burn, fertilized with NPK (Q+NPK); slash and burn, without fertilizer NPK (Q-NPK); cutting and shredding, leaving the residues on the soil surface, fertilized with NPK (C+NPK); cutting and shredding, leaving residues on the soil surface, without fertilizer (C-NPK); cutting and shredding, with residue incorporation and fertilized with NPK (I+NPK); cutting and shredding, with residue incorporation and without NPK fertilizer (I-NPK). The soil was sampled in the rainier season (April 2006) and in the drier season (September 2006), in the 0-0.1 m layer. From each plot, 10 simple samples were collected in order to generate a composite sample. In the more intensive management system the contents of microbial C (Cmic) and microbial N (Nmic) were higher, while the C (Corg) level was higher in the less intensive system. The treatments with highest Cmic and Nmic levels were those with cutting, shredding and distribution of biomass on the soil surface. Under both management systems, the chemical characteristics were in ranges that classify the soil as little fertile, although P and K (in the rainy season) were higher in the less intensive management system.

Mult-class differentiation of cannabis seedlings in a forensic context

This article presents an experimental study about the classification ability of several classifiers for multi-classclassification of cannabis seedlings. As the cultivation of drug type cannabis is forbidden in Switzerland lawenforcement authorities regularly ask forensic laboratories to determinate the chemotype of a seized cannabisplant and then to conclude if the plantation is legal or not. This classification is mainly performed when theplant is mature as required by the EU official protocol and then the classification of cannabis seedlings is a timeconsuming and costly procedure. A previous study made by the authors has investigated this problematic [1]and showed that it is possible to differentiate between drug type (illegal) and fibre type (legal) cannabis at anearly stage of growth using gas chromatography interfaced with mass spectrometry (GC-MS) based on therelative proportions of eight major leaf compounds. The aims of the present work are on one hand to continueformer work and to optimize the methodology for the discrimination of drug- and fibre type cannabisdeveloped in the previous study and on the other hand to investigate the possibility to predict illegal cannabisvarieties. Seven classifiers for differentiating between cannabis seedlings are evaluated in this paper, namelyLinear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA), Nearest NeighbourClassification (NNC), Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ), Radial Basis Function Support Vector Machines(RBF SVMs), Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The performance of each method wasassessed using the same analytical dataset that consists of 861 samples split into drug- and fibre type cannabiswith drug type cannabis being made up of 12 varieties (i.e. 12 classes). The results show that linear classifiersare not able to manage the distribution of classes in which some overlap areas exist for both classificationproblems. Unlike linear classifiers, NNC and RBF SVMs best differentiate cannabis samples both for 2-class and12-class classifications with average classification results up to 99% and 98%, respectively. Furthermore, RBFSVMs correctly classified into drug type cannabis the independent validation set, which consists of cannabisplants coming from police seizures. In forensic case work this study shows that the discrimination betweencannabis samples at an early stage of growth is possible with fairly high classification performance fordiscriminating between cannabis chemotypes or between drug type cannabis varieties.

Distribution and vertical stratification of carbon and nitrogen in soil under different managements in the pampean region of Argentina

One of the expected benefits of no-tillage systems is a higher rate of soil C sequestration. However, higher C retention in soil is not always apparent when no-tillage is applied, due e.g., to substantial differences in soil type and initial C content. The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential of no-tillage management to increase the stock of total organic C in soils of the Pampas region in Argentina. Forty crop fields under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems and seven undisturbed soils were sampled. Total organic C, total N, their fractions and stratification ratios and the C storage capacity of the soils under different managements were assessed in samples to a depth of 30 cm, in three layers (0-5, 5-15 and 15-30 cm). The differences between the C pools of the undisturbed and cultivated soils were significant (p < 0.05) and most pronounced in the top (0-5 cm) soil layer, with more active C near the soil surface (undisturbed > no-tillage > conventional tillage). Based on the stratification ratio of the labile C pool (0-5/5-15 cm), the untilled were separated from conventionally tilled areas. Much of the variation in potentially mineralizable C was explained by this active C fraction (R² = 0.61) and by total organic C (R² = 0.67). No-till soils did not accumulate more organic C than conventionally tilled soils in the 0-30 cm layer, but there was substantial stratification of total and active C pools at no till sites. If the C stratification ratio is really an indicator of soil quality, then the C storage potential of no-tillage would be greater than in conventional tillage, at least in the surface layers. Particulate organic C and potentially mineralizable C may be useful to evaluate variations in topsoil organic matter.

Forms of inorganic phosphorus in soil under different long term soil tillage systems and winter crops

The cultivation of crops with different capacity of P uptake and use under long-term soil tillage systems can affect the distribution of P cycling and inorganic forms in the soil, as a result of higher or lower use efficiency of P applied in fertilizers. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of long-term cultivation of different winter species under tillage systems on the distribution of inorganic P forms in the soil. In 1986, the experiment was initiated with six winter crops (blue lupin, hairy vetch, oat, oilseed radish, wheat and fallow) on a Rhodic Hapludox in southwestern Paraná, under no-tillage (NT) and conventional tillage (CT). The application of phosphate fertilizer in NT rows increased inorganic P in the labile and moderately labile forms, and soil disturbance in CT redistributed the applied P in the deeper layers, increasing the moderately labile P concentration in the subsurface layers. Black oat and blue lupin were the most efficient P-recyclers and under NT, they increased the labile P content in the soil surface layers.