Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Computing explanations for interactive constraint-based systems

Constraint programming has emerged as a successful paradigm for modelling combinatorial problems arising from practical situations. In many of those situations, we are not provided with an immutable set of constraints. Instead, a user will modify his requirements, in an interactive fashion, until he is satisfied with a solution. Examples of such applications include, amongst others, model-based diagnosis, expert systems, product configurators. The system he interacts with must be able to assist him by showing the consequences of his requirements. Explanations are the ideal tool for providing this assistance. However, existing notions of explanations fail to provide sufficient information. We define new forms of explanations that aim to be more informative. Even if explanation generation is a very hard task, in the applications we consider, we must manage to provide a satisfactory level of interactivity and, therefore, we cannot afford long computational times. We introduce the concept of representative sets of relaxations, a compact set of relaxations that shows the user at least one way to satisfy each of his requirements and at least one way to relax them, and present an algorithm that efficiently computes such sets. We introduce the concept of most soluble relaxations, maximising the number of products they allow. We present algorithms to compute such relaxations in times compatible with interactivity, achieving this by indifferently making use of different types of compiled representations. We propose to generalise the concept of prime implicates to constraint problems with the concept of domain consequences, and suggest to generate them as a compilation strategy. This sets a new approach in compilation, and allows to address explanation-related queries in an efficient way. We define ordered automata to compactly represent large sets of domain consequences, in an orthogonal way from existing compilation techniques that represent large sets of solutions.

Finding optimal alternatives based on efficient comparative preference inference

Choosing the right or the best option is often a demanding and challenging task for the user (e.g., a customer in an online retailer) when there are many available alternatives. In fact, the user rarely knows which offering will provide the highest value. To reduce the complexity of the choice process, automated recommender systems generate personalized recommendations. These recommendations take into account the preferences collected from the user in an explicit (e.g., letting users express their opinion about items) or implicit (e.g., studying some behavioral features) way. Such systems are widespread; research indicates that they increase the customers' satisfaction and lead to higher sales. Preference handling is one of the core issues in the design of every recommender system. This kind of system often aims at guiding users in a personalized way to interesting or useful options in a large space of possible options. Therefore, it is important for them to catch and model the user's preferences as accurately as possible. In this thesis, we develop a comparative preference-based user model to represent the user's preferences in conversational recommender systems. This type of user model allows the recommender system to capture several preference nuances from the user's feedback. We show that, when applied to conversational recommender systems, the comparative preference-based model is able to guide the user towards the best option while the system is interacting with her. We empirically test and validate the suitability and the practical computational aspects of the comparative preference-based user model and the related preference relations by comparing them to a sum of weights-based user model and the related preference relations. Product configuration, scheduling a meeting and the construction of autonomous agents are among several artificial intelligence tasks that involve a process of constrained optimization, that is, optimization of behavior or options subject to given constraints with regards to a set of preferences. When solving a constrained optimization problem, pruning techniques, such as the branch and bound technique, point at directing the search towards the best assignments, thus allowing the bounding functions to prune more branches in the search tree. Several constrained optimization problems may exhibit dominance relations. These dominance relations can be particularly useful in constrained optimization problems as they can instigate new ways (rules) of pruning non optimal solutions. Such pruning methods can achieve dramatic reductions in the search space while looking for optimal solutions. A number of constrained optimization problems can model the user's preferences using the comparative preferences. In this thesis, we develop a set of pruning rules used in the branch and bound technique to efficiently solve this kind of optimization problem. More specifically, we show how to generate newly defined pruning rules from a dominance algorithm that refers to a set of comparative preferences. These rules include pruning approaches (and combinations of them) which can drastically prune the search space. They mainly reduce the number of (expensive) pairwise comparisons performed during the search while guiding constrained optimization algorithms to find optimal solutions. Our experimental results show that the pruning rules that we have developed and their different combinations have varying impact on the performance of the branch and bound technique.

Satisfaction and acceptance with learning management systems

More and more often, universities make the decision to implement integrated learning management systems. Nevertheless, these technological developments are not realized without any trouble, and are achieved with more or less success and user satisfaction (Valenduc, 2000). It is why the presented study aims at identifying the factors influencing learning management system satisfaction and acceptance among students. The Technology Acceptance model created by Wixom and Todd (2005) studies information system acceptance through user satisfaction, and has the benefit of incorporating several ergonomic factors. More precisely, the survey, based on this model, investigates behavioral attitudes towards the system, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, as well as system satisfaction, information satisfaction and also incorporates two groups of factors affecting separately the two types of satisfaction. The study was conducted on a representative sample of 593 students from a Brussels university which had recently implemented an integrated learning management system. The results show on one hand, the impact of system reliability, accessibility, flexibility, lay-out and functionalities offered on system satisfaction. And on the other hand, the impact of information accuracy, intelligibility, relevance, exhaustiveness and actualization on information satisfaction. In conclusion, the results indicate the applicability of the theoretical model with learning management systems, and also highlight the importance of each aforementioned factor for a successful implantation of such a system in universities.

Body image and body satisfaction differ by race in overweight postpartum mothers.

BACKGROUND: Body image (BI) and body satisfaction may be important in understanding weight loss behaviors, particularly during the postpartum period. We assessed these constructs among African American and white overweight postpartum women. METHODS: The sample included 162 women (73 African American and 89 white) in the intervention arm 6 months into the Active Mothers Postpartum (AMP) Study, a nutritional and physical activity weight loss intervention. BIs, self-reported using the Stunkard figure rating scale, were compared assessing mean values by race. Body satisfaction was measured using body discrepancy (BD), calculated as perceived current image minus ideal image (BD<0: desire to be heavier; BD>0: desire to be lighter). BD was assessed by race for: BD(Ideal) (current image minus the ideal image) and BD(Ideal Mother) (current image minus ideal mother image). RESULTS: Compared with white women, African American women were younger and were less likely to report being married, having any college education, or residing in households with annual incomes >$30,000 (all p < 0.01). They also had a higher mean body mass index (BMI) (p = 0.04), although perceived current BI did not differ by race (p = 0.21). African Americans had higher mean ideal (p = 0.07) and ideal mother (p = 0.001) BIs compared with whites. African Americans' mean BDs (adjusting for age, BMI, education, income, marital status, and interaction terms) were significantly lower than those of whites, indicating greater body satisfaction among African Americans (BD(Ideal): 1.7 vs. 2.3, p = 0.005; BD(Ideal Mother): 1.1 vs. 1.8, p = 0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: Racial differences exist in postpartum weight, ideal images, and body satisfaction. Healthcare providers should consider tailored messaging that accounts for these racially different perceptions and factors when designing weight loss programs for overweight mothers.

Changes in landing mechanics in patients following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction when wearing an extension constraint knee brace.

BACKGROUND: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction is associated with a high incidence of second tears (graft tears and contralateral ACL tears). These secondary tears have been attributed to asymmetrical lower extremity mechanics. Knee bracing is one potential intervention that can be used during rehabilitation that has the potential to normalize lower extremity asymmetry; however, little is known about the effect of bracing on movement asymmetry in patients following ACL reconstruction. HYPOTHESIS: Wearing a knee brace would increase knee joint flexion and joint symmetry. It was also expected that the joint mechanics would become more symmetrical in the braced condition. OBJECTIVE: To examine how knee bracing affects knee joint function and symmetry over the course of rehabilitation in patients 6 months following ACL reconstruction. STUDY DESIGN: Controlled laboratory study. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 3. METHODS: Twenty-three adolescent patients rehabilitating from ACL reconstruction surgery were recruited for the study. The subjects all underwent a motion analysis assessment during a stop-jump activity with and without a functional knee brace on the surgical side that resisted extension for 6 months following the ACL reconstruction surgery. Statistical analysis utilized a 2 × 2 (limb × brace) analysis of variance with a significant alpha level of 0.05. RESULTS: Subjects had increased knee flexion on the surgical side when they were braced. The brace condition increased knee flexion velocity, decreased the initial knee flexion angle, and increased the ground reaction force and knee extension moment on both limbs. Side-to-side asymmetry was present across conditions for the vertical ground reaction force and knee extension moment. CONCLUSION: Wearing a knee brace appears to increase lower extremity compliance and promotes normalized loading on the surgical side. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Knee extension constraint bracing in postoperative ACL patients may improve symmetry of lower extremity mechanics, which is potentially beneficial in progressing rehabilitation and reducing the incidence of second ACL tears.

Percutaneous Revision of a Testicular Prosthesis is Safe, Cost-effective, and Provides Good Patient Satisfaction.

Office-based percutaneous revision of a testicular prosthesis has never been reported. A patient received a testicular prosthesis but was dissatisfied with the firmness of the implant. In an office setting, the prosthesis was inflated with additional fluid via a percutaneous approach. Evaluated outcomes included patient satisfaction, prosthesis size, recovery time, and cost savings. The patient was satisfied, with no infection, leak, or complication after more than 1 year of follow-up, at significantly less cost than revision surgery. Percutaneous adjustment of testicular prosthesis fill-volume can be safe, inexpensive, and result in good patient satisfaction.

Satisfaction water index as corn yield estimate

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Satisfaction water index as corn yield estimate

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Uma abordagem da lógica fuzzy no ensino médio

O uso cada vez mais intenso de conceitos subjetivos - provenientes da lógica fuzzy - aplicados a problemas reais nos motivou a desenvolver procedimentos para a introdução destas idéias no âmbito do ensino médio. O projeto propõe inicialmente o estudo de conjuntos fuzzy que podem ser entendidos com exemplos - de variação populacional, de controle de pragas e de epidemias. Posteriormente, usar as “operações fuzzy” Sup e Inf em produtos de matrizes para realizar diagnósticos e avaliações subjetivas. As situações abordadas já estão na literatura (Barros e Bassanezi, 2006), entretanto não como fonte para o Ensino Médio. Um dos objetivos principais deste trabalho é contrapor a crença de exatidão da matemática clássica com os resultados provenientes de lógica subjetiva, utilizando conceitos apropriados para os estudantes destas séries: teoria dos conjuntos, relações e funções, matrizes, equações de diferenças e outros.

Two-machine open shop scheduling with an availability constraint

We study a two-machine open shop scheduling problem, in which one machine is not available for processing during a given time interval. The objective is to minimize the makespan. We show that the problem is NP-hard and present an approximation algorithm with a worst-case ratio of 4/3.

Characterizing the most general temporal constraint

This paper introduces a characterization of the so-called most general temporal constraint (GTC), which guarantees the common-sense assertion that "the beginning of the effect cannot precede the beginning of the cause". The formalism is based on general time theory which takes both points and intervals as primitive. It is shown that there are in fact 8 possible causal relationships which satisfy GTC, including cases where, on the one hand, effects start simultaneously with, during, immediately after, or some time after their causes, and on the other hand, events end before, simultaneously with, or after their causes. These causal relationships are versatile enough to subsume those representatives in the literature.

A price worth paying?: Women and work – choice, constraint or satisficing

Purpose – Are women held back or holding back? Do women choose their jobs/careers or are they structurally or normatively constrained? The purpose of this paper is to shed fresh light on these questions and contribute to an on-going debate that has essentially focused on the extent to which part-time work is women’s choice, the role of structural and organisational constraints and the role of men in excluding women. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses data from interviews with 80 working women – both full-time and part-time – performing diverse work roles in a range of organisations in the south east of England. Findings – It was found that many women do not make strategic job choices, rather they often ‘‘fall into’’ jobs that happen to be available to them. Some would not have aspired to their present jobs without male encouragement; many report incidents of male exclusion; and virtually all either know or suspect that they are paid less than comparable men. Those working reduced hours enjoy that facility, yet they are aware that reduced hours and senior roles are seen as incompatible. In short, they recognise both the positive and negative aspects of their jobs, whether they work full or part-time, whether they work in male-dominated or female-dominated occupations, and whatever their position in the organisational hierarchy. Accordingly, the paper argues that the concept of ‘‘satisficing’’, i.e. a decision which is good enough but not optimal, is a more appropriate way to view women’s working lives than are either choice or constraint theories. Originality/value – There is an ongoing, and often polarised, debate between those who maintain that women choose whether to give preference to work or home/family and others who maintain that women, far from being self-determining actors, are constrained structurally and normatively. Rather than supporting these choice or constraint theories, this paper argues that ‘‘satisficing’’ is a more appropriate and nuanced concept to explain women’s working lives.

In vitro-in vivo correlations of self-emulsifying drug delivery systems combining the dynamic lipolysis model and neuro-fuzzy networks

The aim of the current study was to evaluate the potential of the dynamic lipolysis model to simulate the absorption of a poorly soluble model drug compound, probucol, from three lipid-based formulations and to predict the in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) using neuro-fuzzy networks. An oil solution and two self-micro and nano-emulsifying drug delivery systems were tested in the lipolysis model. The release of probucol to the aqueous (micellar) phase was monitored during the progress of lipolysis. These release profiles compared with plasma profiles obtained in a previous bioavailability study conducted in mini-pigs at the same conditions. The release rate and extent of release from the oil formulation were found to be significantly lower than from SMEDDS and SNEDDS. The rank order of probucol released (SMEDDS approximately SNEDDS > oil formulation) was similar to the rank order of bioavailability from the in vivo study. The employed neuro-fuzzy model (AFM-IVIVC) achieved significantly high prediction ability for different data formations (correlation greater than 0.91 and prediction error close to zero), without employing complex configurations. These preliminary results suggest that the dynamic lipolysis model combined with the AFM-IVIVC can be a useful tool in the prediction of the in vivo behavior of lipid-based formulations.