Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Blood glucose level on postoperative day 1 is predictive of adverse outcomes after cardiovascular surgery

AIM: Hyperglycaemia is now a recognized predictive factor of morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). For this reason, we aimed to evaluate the postoperative management of glucose control in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery, and to assess the impact of glucose levels on in-hospital mortality and morbidity. METHODS: This was a retrospective study investigating the association between postoperative blood glucose and outcomes, including death, post-surgical complications, and length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) and in hospital. RESULTS: A total of 642 consecutive patients were enrolled into the study after cardiovascular surgery (CABG, carotid endarterectomy and bypass in the lower limbs). Patients' mean age was 68+/-10 years, and 74% were male. In-hospital mortality was 5% in diabetic patients vs 2% in non-diabetic patients (OR: 1.66, P=0.076). Having blood glucose levels in the upper quartile range (> or =8.8 mmol/L) on postoperative day 1 was independently associated with death (OR: 10.16, P=0.0002), infectious complications (OR: 1.76, P=0.04) and prolonged ICU stay (OR: 3.10, P<0.0001). Patients presenting with three or more hypoglycaemic episodes (<4.1 mmol/L) had increased rates of mortality (OR: 9.08, P<0.0001) and complications (OR: 8.57, P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Glucose levels greater than 8.8 mmol/L on postoperative day 1 and having three or more hypoglycaemic episodes in the postoperative period were predictive of mortality and morbidity among patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery. This suggests that a multidisciplinary approach may be able to achieve better postoperative blood glucose control. Conclusion: Objectif: L'hyperglycémie a été reconnue comme facteur prédictif de morbidité et mortalité après un pontage aortocoronaire. Notre étude avait pour objectif d'évaluer la prise en charge postopératoire des glycémies chez les patients qui avaient subi une intervention chirurgicale cardiovasculaire et d'évaluer l'impact de ces glycémies sur la mortalité et la morbidité intrahospitalières. Méthodes: Étude rétrospective recherchant une association entre la glycémie postopératoire et les complications postchirurgicales, la mortalité et la durée du séjour aux soins intensifs et à l'hôpital. Résultats: L'étude a été réalisée sur 642 patients qui avaient subi une intervention chirurgicale cardiovasculaire (ex. pontage aortocoronaire, endartérectomie de la carotide, pontage artériel des membres inférieurs). L'âge moyen est de 68 ± 10 ans et 74 % des patients étaient de sexe masculin. La mortalité intrahospitalière a été de 5 % parmi les patients diabétiques et 2 % chez les non-diabétiques (OR 1,66, p = 0,076). Les taux de glycémies situés dans le quartile supérieur (≥ 8,8 mmol/l) à j1 postopératoire sont associés de manière indépendante avec la mortalité (OR 10,16, 95 % CI 3,20-39,00, p = 0,0002), les complications infectieuses (OR 1,76, 95 % CI 1,02-3,00, p = 0,04) et la durée du séjour aux soins intensifs (OR 3,10, 95 % CI 1,83-5,38, p < 0,0001). Les patients qui avaient présenté trois hypoglycémies ou plus (< 4,1 mmol/l) ont présenté un taux augmenté de mortalité (OR 9,08, p ≤ 0,0001) et de complications (OR 8,57, p < 0,0001). Conclusion : Des glycémies supérieures à 8,8 mmol/l à j1 postopératoire et la présence de trois hypoglycémies ou plus en période postopératoire sont des facteurs prédictifs de mauvais pronostic chez les patients qui avaient subi une intervention chirurgicale cardiovasculaire. Ainsi, une approche multidisciplinaire devrait être proposée afin d'obtenir un meilleur contrôle postopératoire des glycémies.

Serum and CSF levels of neuron-specific enolase (NSE) in cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass: a marker of brain injury?

We investigated whether neuron-specific enolase (NSE) in serum or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) reflects subtle or manifest brain injury in children undergoing cardiac surgery using cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). NSE was measured in serum (s-NSE) before, and up to, 102 h after surgery in 27 children undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB. In 11 children, CSF-NSE was also measured 48 or 66 h post-surgery. As erythrocytes contain NSE, hemoglobin concentration in the samples was determined spectrophotometrically at 550 nm (cut-off limit: absorbance 0.4 = 560 mg/l) in 14 children and in a further 13 children by spectroscopic multicomponent analysis (cut-off limit 5 micromol/l = 80 mg/l). One hundred and one of 214 post-operative serum samples (47%) had to be discarded because of hemolysis (18% spectrophotometrically at 550 nm and 88% with spectroscopic multicomponent analysis). On the first and second post-operative day, the median s-NSE values were significantly higher when compared with samples taken after 54 h or longer (P = 0.008 and P = 0.002). All CSF-NSE levels were within the normal range and below the s-NSE measured in the same patient. Although in our study elevated s-NSE seems to indicate brain injury in CPB-surgery, the low concentration of NSE in the post-operative CSF of 11 children puts the neuronal origin of s-NSE in question. NSE from other non-neuronal tissues probably contributes to the elevated s-NSE. Additionally, normal post-operative CSF-NSE values in two children with post-operative neurological sequelae might question the predictive value of CSF-NSE with regard to brain injury.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain : a clinical prediction score

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Missing value imputation in longitudinal measures of alcohol consumption

Attrition in longitudinal studies can lead to biased results. The study is motivated by the unexpected observation that alcohol consumption decreased despite increased availability, which may be due to sample attrition of heavy drinkers. Several imputation methods have been proposed, but rarely compared in longitudinal studies of alcohol consumption. The imputation of consumption level measurements is computationally particularly challenging due to alcohol consumption being a semi-continuous variable (dichotomous drinking status and continuous volume among drinkers), and the non-normality of data in the continuous part. Data come from a longitudinal study in Denmark with four waves (2003-2006) and 1771 individuals at baseline. Five techniques for missing data are compared: Last value carried forward (LVCF) was used as a single, and Hotdeck, Heckman modelling, multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE), and a Bayesian approach as multiple imputation methods. Predictive mean matching was used to account for non-normality, where instead of imputing regression estimates, "real" observed values from similar cases are imputed. Methods were also compared by means of a simulated dataset. The simulation showed that the Bayesian approach yielded the most unbiased estimates for imputation. The finding of no increase in consumption levels despite a higher availability remained unaltered. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An empirical hierarchical Bayesian unification of occupational exposure assessment methods.

In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.

Food Values Pilot Programme Evaluation - Summary Report

Food Values is a short programme showing how to get better nutritional value for money when shopping for food.

What Kind of Justice Today ? Expectations Of 'Good Justice', Convergences And Divergences Between Managerial And Judicial Actors And How They Fit Within Management-Oriented Values

This research aims toward a better understanding of the organizational culture(s) of the judiciary in Switzerland by analysing what 'good justice' means nowadays in this country. It seeks to clarify whether, and to what extent, expectations of 'good justice' of judicial actors (judges without managerial experience) and of managerial actors (court managers) are similar and to describe possible managerial implications that may result from this. As judges are at the heart of the judicial organization and exert a strong influence on other groups of actors (Sullivan, Warren et al. 1994), the congruence of their expectations with those of court managers will be at the centre of the analysis. Additionally, referring to the conceptual worlds of Boltanski and Thévenaut (1991), we analyze how closely these expectations are to management-oriented values. We found that almost half of expectations are common to the two groups examined and the main quoted ones are compatible to new public management (NPM) concepts. On the other hand, those expectations shared exclusively by judges relate to the human side of justice, whereas those specific to court managers focus on the way justice functions.

Blood glucose level on postoperative day 1 is predictive of adverse outcomes after cardiovascular surgery.

AIM: Hyperglycaemia is now a recognized predictive factor of morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). For this reason, we aimed to evaluate the postoperative management of glucose control in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery, and to assess the impact of glucose levels on in-hospital mortality and morbidity. METHODS: This was a retrospective study investigating the association between postoperative blood glucose and outcomes, including death, post-surgical complications, and length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) and in hospital. RESULTS: A total of 642 consecutive patients were enrolled into the study after cardiovascular surgery (CABG, carotid endarterectomy and bypass in the lower limbs). Patients' mean age was 68+/-10 years, and 74% were male. In-hospital mortality was 5% in diabetic patients vs 2% in non-diabetic patients (OR: 1.66, P=0.076). Having blood glucose levels in the upper quartile range (> or =8.8 mmol/L) on postoperative day 1 was independently associated with death (OR: 10.16, P=0.0002), infectious complications (OR: 1.76, P=0.04) and prolonged ICU stay (OR: 3.10, P<0.0001). Patients presenting with three or more hypoglycaemic episodes (<4.1 mmol/L) had increased rates of mortality (OR: 9.08, P<0.0001) and complications (OR: 8.57, P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Glucose levels greater than 8.8 mmol/L on postoperative day 1 and having three or more hypoglycaemic episodes in the postoperative period were predictive of mortality and morbidity among patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery. This suggests that a multidisciplinary approach may be able to achieve better postoperative blood glucose control.

Renal and hormonal responses to direct renin inhibition with aliskiren in healthy humans.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacological interruption of the renin-angiotensin system focuses on optimization of blockade. As a measure of intrarenal renin activity, we have examined renal plasma flow (RPF) responses in a standardized protocol. Compared with responses with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition (rise in RPF approximately 95 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)), greater renal vasodilation with angiotensin receptor blockers (approximately 145 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)) suggested more effective blockade. We predicted that blockade with the direct oral renin inhibitor aliskiren would produce renal vascular responses exceeding those induced by angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty healthy normotensive subjects were studied on a low-sodium (10 mmol/d) diet, receiving separate escalating doses of aliskiren. Six additional subjects received captopril 25 mg as a low-sodium comparison and also received aliskiren on a high-sodium (200 mmol/d) diet. RPF was measured by clearance of para-aminohippurate. Aliskiren induced a remarkable dose-related renal vasodilation in low-sodium balance. The RPF response was maximal at the 600-mg dose (197+/-27 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)) and exceeded responses to captopril (92+/-20 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2); P<0.01). Furthermore, significant residual vasodilation was observed 48 hours after each dose (P<0.01). The RPF response on a high-sodium diet was also higher than expected (47+/-17 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)). Plasma renin activity and angiotensin levels were reduced in a dose-related manner. As another functional index of the effect of aliskiren, we found significant natriuresis on both diets. CONCLUSIONS: Renal vasodilation in healthy people with the potent renin inhibitor aliskiren exceeded responses seen previously with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. The effects were longer lasting and were associated with significant natriuresis. These results indicate that aliskiren may provide more complete and thus more effective blockade of the renin-angiotensin system.

Slime production and proteinase activity of Candida species isolated from blood samples and the comparison of these activities with minimum inhibitory concentration values of antifungal agents

Slime and proteinase activity of 54 strains consisting of 19 Candida parapsilosis and 35 C. albicans strains isolated from blood samples were investigated in this study. Ketoconazole, amphothericin B, and fluconazole susceptibility of Candida species were compared with slime production and proteinase activity of these species. For both Candida species, no correlation was detected between the slime activity and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the three antifungal agents. For both Candida species no correlation was detected between the proteinase activity and the MIC values of amphothericin B, and fluconazole however, statistically significant difference, was determined between the proteinase activity and MIC values of ketoconazole (p = 0.007). Slime production was determined by using modified Christensen macrotube method and proteinase activity was measured by the method of Staib. Antifungal susceptibility was determined through the guidelines of National Committee for Laboratory Standards (NCCLS M27-A).

Radiosensibilité individuelle : les tests vont changer nos pratiques [Intrinsic radiosensitivity: predictive assays that will change the daily practice].

The impact of curative radiotherapy depends mainly on the total dose delivered homogenously in the targeted volume. Nevertheless, the dose delivered to the surrounding healthy tissues may reduce the therapeutic ratio of many radiation treatments. In a same population treated in one center with the same technique, it appears that individual radiosensitivity clearly exists, namely in terms of late side effects that are in principle non-reversible. This review details the different radiobiological approaches that have been developed to better understand the mechanisms of radiation-induced late effects. We also present the possibilities of clinical use of predictive assays in the close future.

Ascending aorta measurements as assessed by ECG-gated multi-detector computed tomography : a pilot study to etablish normative values for transcatheters therapies

Rapport de synthèse : Mesures de l'aorte ascendante par scanner synchronisé au rythme cardiaque: une étude pilote pour établir des valeurs normatives dans le cadre des futures thérapies par transcathéter. Objectif : L'objectif de cette étude est d'établir les valeurs morphométriques normatives de l'aorte ascendante à l'aide de l'angiographie par scanner synchronisé au rythme cardiaque, afin d'aider au développement des futurs traitements par transcathéter. Matériels et méthodes : Chez soixante-dix-sept patients (âgé de 22 à 83 ans, âge moyen: 54,7 ans), une angiographie par scanner synchronisé au rythme cardiaque a été réalisée pour évaluation des vaisseaux coronaires. Les examens ont été revus afin d'étudier l'anatomie de la chambre de chasse du ventricule gauche jusqu'au tronc brachio-céphalique droit. A l'aide de programmes de reconstructions multiplanaires et de segmentation automatique, différents diamètres et longueurs considérés comme importants pour les futurs traitements par transcathéter ont été mesurés. Les valeurs sont exprimées en moyennes, médianes, maximums, minimums, écart-types et en coefficients de variation. Les variations de diamètre de l'aorte ascendante durant le cycle cardiaque ont été aussi considérées. Résultats : Le diamètre moyen de la chambre de chasse du ventricule gauche était de 20.3+/-3.4 mm. Au niveau du sinus coronaire de l'aorte, il était de 34.2+/-4.1 mm et au niveau de la jonction sinotubulaire il était de 29.7+/-3.4 mm. Le diamètre moyen de l'aorte ascendante était de 32.7+/-3.8 mm. Le coefficient de variation de ces mesures variait de 12 à 17%. La distance moyenne entre l'insertion proximale des valvules aortiques et le départ du tronc brachio-céphalique droit était de 92.6+/-11.8 mm. La distance moyenne entre l'insertion proximale des valvules aortiques et l'origine de l'artère coronaire proximale était de 12.1+/-3.7 mm avec un coefficient de variation de 31%. La distance moyenne entre les deux ostia coronaires était de 7.2+/-3.1 mm avec un coefficient de variation de 43%. La longueur moyenne du petit arc de l'aorte ascendante entre l'artère coronaire gauche et le tronc brachio-céphalique droit était de 52.9+/-9.5 mm. La longueur moyenne de la continuité fibreuse entre la valve aortique et la valvule mitrale antérieure était de 14.6+/-3.3 mm avec un coefficient de variation de 23%. L'aire moyenne de la valve aortique était de 582.0+/-131.9 mm2. La variation du diamètre antéro-postérieur et transverse de l'aorte ascendante était respectivement de 8.4% et de 7.3%. Conclusion Il existe d'importantes variations inter-individuelles dans les mesures de l'aorte ascendante avec cependant des variations intra-individuelles faibles durant le cycle cardiaque. De ce fait, une approche personnalisée pour chaque patient est recommandée dans la confection des futures endoprothèses de l'aorte ascendante. Le scanner synchronisé au rythme cardiaque jouera un rôle prépondérant dans le bilan préthérapeutique. Abstract : The aim of this study was to provide an insight into normative values of the ascending aorta in regards to novel endovascular procedures using ECG-gated multi-detector CT angiography. Seventy-seven adult patients without ascending aortic abnormalities were evaluated. Measurements at relevant levels of the aortic root and ascending aorta were obtained. Diameter variations of the ascending aorta during cardiac cycle were also considered. Mean diameters (mm) were as follows: LV outflow tract 20.3+/-3.4, coronary sinus 34.2+/-4.1, sinotubular junction 29.7+-3.4 and mid ascending aorta 32.7+/-3.8 with coefficients of variation (CV) ranging from 12 to 17%. Mean distances (mm) were: from the plane passing through the proximal insertions of the aortic valve cusps to the right brachio-cephalic artery (BCA) 92.6111.8, from the plane passing through the proximal insertions of the aortic valve cusps to the proximal coronary ostium 12.1+/-3.7, and between both coronary ostia 7.2+/-3.1, minimal arc of the ascending aorta from left coronary ostium to right BCA 52.9 X9.5, and the fibrous continuity between the aortic valve and the anterior leaflet of the mitral valve 14.óf3.3, CV 13-43%. Mean aortic valve area was 582+-131.9 mm2. The variations of the antero-posterior and transverse diameters of the ascending aorta during the cardiac cycle were 8.4% and 7.3%, respectively. Results showed large inter-individual variations in diameters and distances but with limited intra-individual variations during the cardiac cycle. A personalized approach for planning endovascular devices must be considered.