Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Nest distribution and nesting habits of Xylocopa ordinaria Smith (Hymenoptera, Apidae) in a restinga area in the northern Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil

This paper aims to study the distribution of natural nests of Xylocopa ordinaria and characterize its nesting habits in the restinga of Grussai/Iquipari (RJ), supporting future studies on the pollinators management in the northern Rio de Janeiro state. The data obtained from Aug/2003 to Dec/2004, in an area of 11.6ha, were related to the nest distribution, substrate identification and dimensions, emergence, sex ratio, nest structure (n= 23 nests) and pollen content analysis of provisioning masses and feces. X. ordinaria nests were abundant and presented a clustered distribution. These bees do not present taxonomical affinity for nesting substrates, but preferences for wood availability and characteristics, being Pera glabrata the main substrate. X. ordinaria is a multivoltine species that tolerates co-specifics in their nests. These bees were generalist on their nectar and pollen consumption, but presented floral constancy while provisioning brood cells. These behaviors, activity along the year, flights throughout the day, and legitimate visits to flowers indicate the importance of X. ordinaria on the pollination of plants in the restinga.

Measuring ecological niche overlap from occurrence and spatial environmental data

1. Aim - Concerns over how global change will influence species distributions, in conjunction with increased emphasis on understanding niche dynamics in evolutionary and community contexts, highlight the growing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences between or within taxa. We propose a statistical framework to describe and compare environmental niches from occurrence and spatial environmental data.¦2. Location - Europe, North America, South America¦3. Methods - The framework applies kernel smoothers to densities of species occurrence in gridded environmental space to calculate metrics of niche overlap and test hypotheses regarding niche conservatism. We use this framework and simulated species with predefined distributions and amounts of niche overlap to evaluate several ordination and species distribution modeling techniques for quantifying niche overlap. We illustrate the approach with data on two well-studied invasive species.¦4. Results - We show that niche overlap can be accurately detected with the framework when variables driving the distributions are known. The method is robust to known and previously undocumented biases related to the dependence of species occurrences on the frequency of environmental conditions that occur across geographic space. The use of a kernel smoother makes the process of moving from geographical space to multivariate environmental space independent of both sampling effort and arbitrary choice of resolution in environmental space. However, the use of ordination and species distribution model techniques for selecting, combining and weighting variables on which niche overlap is calculated provide contrasting results.¦5. Main conclusions - The framework meets the increasing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences. It is appropriate to study niche differences between species, subspecies or intraspecific lineages that differ in their geographical distributions. Alternatively, it can be used to measure the degree to which the environmental niche of a species or intraspecific lineage has changed over time.

Integration of high-resolution geophysical data for the characterization of alluvial aquifers : new approaches and implications for hydrological predictions

Abstract Accurate characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrological properties in heterogeneous aquifers at a range of scales is a key prerequisite for reliable modeling of subsurface contaminant transport, and is essential for designing effective and cost-efficient groundwater management and remediation strategies. To this end, high-resolution geophysical methods have shown significant potential to bridge a critical gap in subsurface resolution and coverage between traditional hydrological measurement techniques such as borehole log/core analyses and tracer or pumping tests. An important and still largely unresolved issue, however, is how to best quantitatively integrate geophysical data into a characterization study in order to estimate the spatial distribution of one or more pertinent hydrological parameters, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first develop a strategy for the assimilation of several types of hydrogeophysical data having varying degrees of resolution, subsurface coverage, and sensitivity to the hydrologic parameter of interest. In this regard a novel simulated annealing (SA)-based conditional simulation approach was developed and then tested in its ability to generate realizations of porosity given crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and neutron porosity log data. This was done successfully for both synthetic and field data sets. A subsequent issue that needed to be addressed involved assessing the potential benefits and implications of the resulting porosity realizations in terms of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This was investigated synthetically assuming first that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity was well-defined. Then, the relationship was itself investigated in the context of a calibration procedure using hypothetical tracer test data. Essentially, the relationship best predicting the observed tracer test measurements was determined given the geophysically derived porosity structure. Both of these investigations showed that the SA-based approach, in general, allows much more reliable hydrological predictions than other more elementary techniques considered. Further, the developed calibration procedure was seen to be very effective, even at the scale of tomographic resolution, for predictions of transport. This also held true at locations within the aquifer where only geophysical data were available. This is significant because the acquisition of hydrological tracer test measurements is clearly more complicated and expensive than the acquisition of geophysical measurements. Although the above methodologies were tested using porosity logs and GPR data, the findings are expected to remain valid for a large number of pertinent combinations of geophysical and borehole log data of comparable resolution and sensitivity to the hydrological target parameter. Moreover, the obtained results allow us to have confidence for future developments in integration methodologies for geophysical and hydrological data to improve the 3-D estimation of hydrological properties.

Temporal distribution of Aedes aegypti Linnaeus (Diptera, Culicidae), in a Hospital in Cuiabá, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

This study aimed at registering and monitoring the presence of Aedes aegypti in the University Hospital Júlio Muller, Cuiabá-MT, as well as investigating the influence of temperature and rainfall on its temporal distribution and egg densities in ovitraps. The study was performed from April/2007 to March/2008, utilizing ovitraps with 10% of hay infusion and a wood paddle as an oviposition substrate. For surveillance, one ovitrap was placed in each of the 12 points distributed throughout the hospital. Ovitraps were collected monthly at the end of a 5-day installation period. After egg counting, wood paddles were immersed in water to allow larval eclosion for species identification through optical microscopy. Egg Density Index (EDI), Positive Ovitraps Index (POI), and Mean Number of Eggs (MNE) were used for data analysis. The presence of A. aegypti in the hospital was registered throughout the study period, except in July. The MNE was proportionally higher in the internal area (n= 8.47 eggs/paddle) when compared to the external area (n= 5.46 eggs/paddle), and was higher in September/October 2007 and January/February 2008. A significant increase in EDI, POI and MNE was registered in periods where the average temperature was higher, and the increase in POI was also concomitant with an increase in rainfall. The continuous presence of A. aegypti in the hospital throughout the study period, points out the need of including this mosquito in the arthropod control list in this environment. This is particularly important, considering that A. aegypti is an important vector of several arboviroses.

Estimating learning models from experimental data

We study the statistical properties of three estimation methods for a model of learning that is often fitted to experimental data: quadratic deviation measures without unobserved heterogeneity, and maximum likelihood withand without unobserved heterogeneity. After discussing identification issues, we show that the estimators are consistent and provide their asymptotic distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity can lead to seriously biased estimations in samples which have the typical length of actual experiments. Better small sample properties areobtained if unobserved heterogeneity is introduced. That is, rather than estimating the parameters for each individual, the individual parameters are considered random variables, and the distribution of those random variables is estimated.

Spatial distribution of a spherical gall (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae) on Caryocar brasiliense (Caryocaraceae)

We obtained the first data on spatial distribution of a spherical galling insect (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae) at the Caryocar brasiliense Camb. (Caryocaraceae) tree level. This work was developed in two pastures in Montes Claros, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The areas studied were: pasture 1 (in activity) and pasture 2 (abandoned pasture = savanna in recovery). We evaluated the distribution of spherical galls in: foliage orientation (slope), among leaves (border and interior of the tree crown), among leaflets (right, central, left), distal, median, and proximal as well as border, central area, and adjacent to the mid leaf vein of the leaflet, and difference between areas in 10 infested trees per area. The smaller number of spherical gall/leaflet was observed in pasture 1 than in pasture 2. More spherical galls were found on the northern in pasture 1, but in the pasture 2, the lower spherical galls were observed on the northeast than other slopes. The average number of spherical galls did not differ statistically among the three leaflets of C. brasiliense in pasture 2. However, in pasture 1, we observed highest number of spherical galls in the central leaflet. More spherical galls were found in the border than interior of the tree crown. The average number of spherical galls did not differ statistically among the longitudinal region on leaflet of C. brasiliense. The spherical gall insect preferred to colonize the leaf margin than the central portion or near mid vein on transversal regions on a leaflet.

A very rare cancer in Down syndrome: medulloblastoma. Epidemiological data from 13 countries.

Persons with Down syndrome (DS) uniquely have an increased frequency of leukemias but a decreased total frequency of solid tumors. The distribution and frequency of specific types of brain tumors have never been studied in DS. We evaluated the frequency of primary neural cell embryonal tumors and gliomas in a large international data set. The observed number of children with DS having a medulloblastoma, central nervous system primitive neuroectodermal tumor (CNS-PNET) or glial tumor was compared to the expected number. Data were collected from cancer registries or brain tumor registries in 13 countries of Europe, America, Asia and Oceania. The number of DS children with each category of tumor was treated as a Poisson variable with mean equal to 0.000884 times the total number of registrations in that category. Among 8,043 neural cell embryonal tumors (6,882 medulloblastomas and 1,161 CNS-PNETs), only one patient with medulloblastoma had DS, while 7.11 children in total and 6.08 with medulloblastoma were expected to have DS. (p 0.016 and 0.0066 respectively). Among 13,797 children with glioma, 10 had DS, whereas 12.2 were expected. Children with DS appear to be specifically protected against primary neural cell embryonal tumors of the CNS, whereas gliomas occur at the same frequency as in the general population. A similar protection against neuroblastoma, the principal extracranial neural cell embryonal tumor, has been observed in children with DS. Additional genetic material on the supernumerary chromosome 21 may protect against embryonal neural cell tumor development.

Notes on the geographic distribution and subspecific taxonomy of Sais rosalia (Cramer) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Ithomiini), including the first records in Paraguay

Notes on the geographic distribution and subspecific taxonomy of Sais rosalia (Cramer) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Ithomiini), including the first records in Paraguay. This paper provides comments on the subspecific taxonomy and geographic distribution of Sais rosalia (Cramer, 1779) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Ithomiini), as well as an up-to-date distributional map, complemented with unpublished distributional data based on specimens deposited in the Coleção Entomológica Pe. Jesus S. Moure, Curitiba, Brazil and the Museo de Historia Natural, Lima, Peru. The following synonyms are proposed: Sais rosalia camariensis Haensch, 1905 syn. rev. as junior subjective synonym of Papilio rosalia Cramer, 1779 and Sais rosalia brasiliensis Talbot, 1928 syn. rev. as junior subjective synonym of Sais rosalia rosalinde Weymer, 1890. Additionally, the first country records of Sais rosalia in Paraguay, including the southernmost record of the species, are documented.

How quickly should we titrate antihypertensive medication? Systematic review modelling blood pressure response from trial data.

Context There are no evidence syntheses available to guide clinicians on when to titrate antihypertensive medication after initiation. Objective To model the blood pressure (BP) response after initiating antihypertensive medication. Data sources electronic databases including Medline, Embase, Cochrane Register and reference lists up to December 2009. Study selection Trials that initiated antihypertensive medication as single therapy in hypertensive patients who were either drug naive or had a placebo washout from previous drugs. Data extraction Office BP measurements at a minimum of two weekly intervals for a minimum of 4 weeks. An asymptotic approach model of BP response was assumed and non-linear mixed effects modelling used to calculate model parameters. Results and conclusions Eighteen trials that recruited 4168 patients met inclusion criteria. The time to reach 50% of the maximum estimated BP lowering effect was 1 week (systolic 0.91 weeks, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.10; diastolic 0.95, 0.75 to 1.15). Models incorporating drug class as a source of variability did not improve fit of the data. Incorporating the presence of a titration schedule improved model fit for both systolic and diastolic pressure. Titration increased both the predicted maximum effect and the time taken to reach 50% of the maximum (systolic 1.2 vs 0.7 weeks; diastolic 1.4 vs 0.7 weeks). Conclusions Estimates of the maximum efficacy of antihypertensive agents can be made early after starting therapy. This knowledge will guide clinicians in deciding when a newly started antihypertensive agent is likely to be effective or not at controlling BP.

Timeline and geographical distribution of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae: Heliothinae) in Brazil

ABSTRACT This study presents registers of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) occurrence to assess its spatial and temporal distribution in Brazil. We used data from collections, especially from the Southern Region, systematic collections in Rio Grande do Sul, occasional collections of caterpillars and adults in different regions of Brazil, as well as literature registers. We conclude that the introduction of H. armigera in Brazil probably occurred before October 2008. We also register that in August 2012 H. armigera was already present from the extreme southern part (Rio Grande do Sul) to the extreme northern part (Amapá) of Brazil.

How many diagnosis fields are needed to capture safety events in administrative data? Findings and recommendations from the WHO ICD-11 Topic Advisory Group on Quality and Safety

OBJECTIVE: As part of the WHO ICD-11 development initiative, the Topic Advisory Group on Quality and Safety explores meta-features of morbidity data sets, such as the optimal number of secondary diagnosis fields. DESIGN: The Health Care Quality Indicators Project of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development collected Patient Safety Indicator (PSI) information from administrative hospital data of 19-20 countries in 2009 and 2011. We investigated whether three countries that expanded their data systems to include more secondary diagnosis fields showed increased PSI rates compared with six countries that did not. Furthermore, administrative hospital data from six of these countries and two American states, California (2011) and Florida (2010), were analysed for distributions of coded patient safety events across diagnosis fields. RESULTS: Among the participating countries, increasing the number of diagnosis fields was not associated with any overall increase in PSI rates. However, high proportions of PSI-related diagnoses appeared beyond the sixth secondary diagnosis field. The distribution of three PSI-related ICD codes was similar in California and Florida: 89-90% of central venous catheter infections and 97-99% of retained foreign bodies and accidental punctures or lacerations were captured within 15 secondary diagnosis fields. CONCLUSIONS: Six to nine secondary diagnosis fields are inadequate for comparing complication rates using hospital administrative data; at least 15 (and perhaps more with ICD-11) are recommended to fully characterize clinical outcomes. Increasing the number of fields should improve the international and intra-national comparability of data for epidemiologic and health services research, utilization analyses and quality of care assessment.

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

A behavioral ecology of shermen: hidden stories from trajectory data in the Northern Humboldt Current System

This work proposes an original contribution to the understanding of shermen spatial behavior, based on the behavioral ecology and movement ecology paradigms. Through the analysis of Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data, we characterized the spatial behavior of Peruvian anchovy shermen at di erent scales: (1) the behavioral modes within shing trips (i.e., searching, shing and cruising); (2) the behavioral patterns among shing trips; (3) the behavioral patterns by shing season conditioned by ecosystem scenarios; and (4) the computation of maps of anchovy presence proxy from the spatial patterns of behavioral mode positions. At the rst scale considered, we compared several Markovian (hidden Markov and semi-Markov models) and discriminative models (random forests, support vector machines and arti cial neural networks) for inferring the behavioral modes associated with VMS tracks. The models were trained under a supervised setting and validated using tracks for which behavioral modes were known (from on-board observers records). Hidden semi-Markov models performed better, and were retained for inferring the behavioral modes on the entire VMS dataset. At the second scale considered, each shing trip was characterized by several features, including the time spent within each behavioral mode. Using a clustering analysis, shing trip patterns were classi ed into groups associated to management zones, eet segments and skippers' personalities. At the third scale considered, we analyzed how ecological conditions shaped shermen behavior. By means of co-inertia analyses, we found signi cant associations between shermen, anchovy and environmental spatial dynamics, and shermen behavioral responses were characterized according to contrasted environmental scenarios. At the fourth scale considered, we investigated whether the spatial behavior of shermen re ected to some extent the spatial distribution of anchovy. Finally, this work provides a wider view of shermen behavior: shermen are not only economic agents, but they are also foragers, constrained by ecosystem variability. To conclude, we discuss how these ndings may be of importance for sheries management, collective behavior analyses and end-to-end models.

Homeostatic and circadian contribution to EEG and molecular state variables of sleep regulation.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Besides their well-established role in circadian rhythms, our findings that the forebrain expression of the clock-genes Per2 and Dbp increases and decreases, respectively, in relation to time spent awake suggest they also play a role in the homeostatic aspect of sleep regulation. Here, we determined whether time of day modulates the effects of elevated sleep pressure on clock-gene expression. Time of day effects were assessed also for recognized electrophysiological (EEG delta power) and molecular (Homer1a) markers of sleep homeostasis. DESIGN: EEG and qPCR data were obtained for baseline and recovery from 6-h sleep deprivation starting at ZT0, -6, -12, or -18. SETTING: Mouse sleep laboratory. PARTICIPANTS: Male mice. INTERVENTIONS: Sleep deprivation. RESULTS: The sleep-deprivation induced changes in Per2 and Dbp expression importantly varied with time of day, such that Per2 could even decrease during sleep deprivations occurring at the decreasing phase in baseline. Dbp showed similar, albeit opposite dynamics. These unexpected results could be reliably predicted assuming that these transcripts behave according to a driven damped harmonic oscillator. As expected, the sleep-wake distribution accounted for a large degree of the changes in EEG delta power and Homer1a. Nevertheless, the sleep deprivation-induced increase in delta power varied also with time of day with higher than expected levels when recovery sleep started at dark onset. CONCLUSIONS: Per2 and delta power are widely used as exclusive state variables of the circadian and homeostatic process, respectively. Our findings demonstrate a considerable cross-talk between these two processes. As Per2 in the brain responds to both sleep loss and time of day, this molecule is well positioned to keep track of and to anticipate homeostatic sleep need. CITATION: Curie T; Mongrain V; Dorsaz S; Mang GM; Emmenegger Y; Franken P. Homeostatic and circadian contribution to EEG and molecular state variables of sleep regulation. SLEEP 2013;36(3):311-323.