An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

The mineralogy and chemistry of the German and Portuguese tiles used to face a historic building in the Amazon region and their natural susceptibility to tropical weathering

As proeminentes edificações da cidade de Belém foram revestidas durante o século 19 com azulejos produzidos em Portugal e Alemanha que já apresentam distintos graus de degradação. O Palacete Pinho é uma das mais importantes destas edificações e foi selecionado para se investigar a ação do clima tropical amazônico sobre a degradação destes azulejos. Para atingir estes objetivos mapearam-se os azulejos desta edificação visando identificar as modificações de origem orgânica e inorgânica e coletas de amostras para análises. Os minerais foram determinados por DRX, a composição química por métodos clássicos úmidos e MEV/SED e os micro-organismos por microscopia. Os resultados obtidos mostram que os azulejos Portugueses e Alemães são distintos entre si. Enquanto o biscoito é composto de SiO₂ e Al₂O₃, CaO foi encontrado apenas nos Portugueses. Os baixos conteúdos de Na₂O e K₂O indicam adição de materiais para redução da temperatura de fusão. SiO₂ e PbO compõem o vidrado, já CoO e FeO foram adicionados como pigmentos. O biscoito dos azulejos Alemães é constituído de quartzo, mullita e cristobalita, ao contrário do Português com quartzo, gehlenita, diopsídio, calcita e feldspatos. Os vidrados são amorfos ao DRX. As diferenças químicas e mineralógicas entre os azulejos Portugueses e Alemães indicam que foram produzidos por matéria prima distinta, bem como processo termal. As alterações relacionadas com o intemperismo são as finas camadas de detritos (nos Alemães), manchas de oxidação, manchas escuras, descolamento do azulejo (no Português); perda de vidrado e biscoito tornando-se pulverulento como consequência do estabelecimento de Cyanophyta e bacillariophyta (Português). As distintas feições de degradação dos azulejos refletem as suas diferenças mineralógicas e químicas expostas ao clima tropical Amazônico.

Microsatellite Organization in the Grasshopper Abracris flavolineata (Orthoptera: Acrididae) Revealed by FISH Mapping: Remarkable Spreading in the A and B Chromosomes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Delimiting the Origin of a B Chromosome by FISH Mapping, Chromosome Painting and DNA Sequence Analysis in Astyanax paranae (Teleostei, Characiformes)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Role of Implant/Abutment System on Torque Maintenance of Retention Screws and Vertical Misfit of Implant-Supported Crowns Before and After Mechanical Cycling

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the role of the implant/abutment system on torque maintenance of titanium retention screws and the vertical misfit of screw-retained implant-supported crowns before and after mechanical cycling. Materials and Methods: Three groups were studied: morse taper implants with conical abutments (MTC group), external-hexagon implants with conical abutments (EHC group), and external-hexagon implants with UCLA abutments (EHU group). Metallic crowns casted in cobalt-chromium alloy were used (n = 10). Retention screws received insertion torque and, after 3 minutes, initial detorque was measured. Crowns were retightened and submitted to cyclic loading testing under oblique loading (30 degrees) of 130 +/- 10 N at 2 Hz of frequency, totaling 1 x 10(6) cycles. After cycling, final detorque was measured. Vertical misfit was measured using a stereomicroscope. Data were analyzed by analysis of variance, Tukey test, and Pearson correlation test (P < .05). Results: All detorque values were lower than the insertion torque both before and after mechanical cycling. No statistically significant difference was observed among groups before mechanical cycling. After mechanical cycling, a statistically significantly lower loss of detorque was verified in the MTC group in comparison to the EHC group. Significantly lower vertical misfit values were noted after mechanical cycling but there was no difference among groups. There was no significant correlation between detorque values and vertical misfit. Conclusions: All groups presented a significant decrease of torque before and after mechanical cycling. The morse taper connection promoted the highest torque maintenance. Mechanical cycling reduced the vertical misfit of all groups, although no significant correlation between vertical misfit and torque loss was found.

Relaxation to Fixed Points in the Logistic and Cubic Maps: Analytical and Numerical Investigation

Convergence to a period one fixed point is investigated for both logistic and cubic maps. For the logistic map the relaxation to the fixed point is considered near a transcritical bifurcation while for the cubic map it is near a pitchfork bifurcation. We confirmed that the convergence to the fixed point in both logistic and cubic maps for a region close to the fixed point goes exponentially fast to the fixed point and with a relaxation time described by a power law of exponent -1. At the bifurcation point, the exponent is not universal and depends on the type of the bifurcation as well as on the nonlinearity of the map.

Potassium nutrition in the first and second ratoon sugarcane grown in an Oxisol by a conservationist system

The presence of mulch on the soil surface after the mechanical harvesting of sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) enhances the cycling of nutrients, especially K, which can decrease K fertilizer recommendations for the crop. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of K addition to an Oxisol, with an initial concentration 0.07 cmol(c) K kg(-1), in first and second ratoon (no-till) sugarcane cultures by a conservationist system, i.e. rational use of fertilizers, use of alternative inputs and especially the maintenance of residues in soil that was previously burned to facilitate cutting. The following K doses were tested: 0, 32.5, 65, 130, and 195 kg K2O ha(-1), arranged in a randomized block design with five replicates. Potassium content in the soil and in the plant, as well as the yield and the quality of stalks were evaluated. Soil K application increased K concentration in soil and plant, and was reflected in the prodUction of stalks, with higher production (87.5 and 107.5 t ha(-1)) with the use of 120 and 123 kg K2O ha(-1) in first and second ratoon sugarcane, respectively. At the first 2 yr it was not possible to reduce the K fertilization in ratoon. Therefore, with the introduction of the conservationist system there was an increase (20 t ha(-1)) at the second ratoon regarding the first one with the same applied rate.

Effect of the association between the tray and impression techniques on angulated implants using the All-on-Four system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fish immunology: the modification and manipulation of the innate immune system: Brazilian studies

The understanding of fish immune system structure and function is essential for the development of new technologies and products to improve productivity. This is the first review on immune system of fish with Brazilian studies. Aquaculture in Brazil has shown massive growth in recent years due to methods of culture intensification. However, these procedures led to disease outbreaks, as well as the chemotherapy and the misuse of antibiotics. A viable alternative to avoid the use of chemicals and prevent economic losses is the administration of immunostimulants and prebiotcs, which act by increasing the innate immune system. In Brazil there is a lack of studies on fish immune system, except by some groups that have studied the effects of the immunostimulants administration in various species.

Evaluation of discomfort in manual activities using hand mapping: the influence of age

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The influence of heat treatment on the structure and microstructure of Ti-15Mo-xNb system alloys for biomedical applications

The Ti-15Mo-xNb system integrates a new class of titanium alloys without the presence of aluminum and vanadium, which exhibit cytotoxicity, and that have low elasticity modulus values (below 100 GPa). This occurs because these alloys have a beta structure, which is very attractive for use as biomaterials. In addition, Brazil has about 90% of the world’s resources of niobium, which is very important economically. It strategically invests in research on the development and processing of alloys containing this element. In this paper, a study of the influence of heat treatments on the structure and microstructure of the alloys of a Ti-15Mo-xNb system is presented. The results showed grain grown with heat treatment and elongated and irregular grains after lamination due to this processing. After quenching, there were no changes in the microstructure in relation to heat-treated and laminated conditions. These results corroborate the x-ray diffraction results, which showed the predominance of the β phase.

Recycling residues from the pulp and paper industries in the civil construction

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Prevalence and Predictors of Potential Drug-Drug Interactions in the Elderly: A Cross-Sectional Study in the Brazilian Primary Public Health System

Purpose. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of clinically important potential drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in elderly patients attending the public primary health care system in Brazil. The secondary objective was to investigate possible predictors of potential DDIs. Methods. A cross-sectional study was carried out in 5 Brazilian cities located in the Ourinhos Micro-region, Sao Paulo State, between November 2010 and April 2011. The selected sample was divided according to the presence (exposed) or absence (unexposed) of one or more potential DDIs (defined as the presence of a minimum 5-day overlap in supply of an interacting drug pair). Data were collected from medical prescriptions and patients' medical records. Potential DDIs (rated major or moderate) were identified using 4 DDI-checker programs. Logistic regression analysis was used to study potential DDI predictors. Results. The prevalence of clinically important potential DDIs found during the study period was 47.4%. Female sex (OR = 2.49 [95% CI 2.29-2.75]), diagnosis of = 3 diseases (OR = 6.43 [95% CI 3.25-12.44]), and diagnosis of hypertension (OR = 1.68 [95% CI 1.23-2.41]) were associated with potential DDIs. The adjusted OR increased from 0.90 [95% CI 0.82-1.03] in patients aged 60 - 64 years to 4.03 [95% CI 3.79 - 4.28] in those aged 75 years or older. Drug therapy regimens involving = 2 prescribers (OR = 1.39 [95% CI 1.17-1.67]), = 3 drugs (OR = 3.21 [95% CI 2.78-3.59]), = 2 ATC codes (OR = 1.19 [95% CI 1.12-1.29]), = 2 drugs acting on cytochrome P450 (OR = 2.24 [95% CI 2.07-2.46]), and ATC codes B (OR = 1.89 [95% CI 1.05-2.08]) and C (OR = 4.01 [95% CI 3.55-4.57]) were associated with potential DDIs. Conclusion. Special care should be taken with the prescription and therapeutic follow-up of patients who present characteristics identified as predictors. Knowledge of potential DDI predictors could aid in developing preventive practices and policies that allow public health services to better manage this situation.

Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping the biosphere: exploring species to understand the origin, organization and sustainability of biodiversity

The time is ripe for a comprehensive mission to explore and document Earth's species. This calls for a campaign to educate and inspire the next generation of professional and citizen species explorers, investments in cyber-infrastructure and collections to meet the unique needs of the producers and consumers of taxonomic information, and the formation and coordination of a multi-institutional, international, transdisciplinary community of researchers, scholars and engineers with the shared objective of creating a comprehensive inventory of species and detailed map of the biosphere. We conclude that an ambitious goal to describe 10 million species in less than 50 years is attainable based on the strength of 250 years of progress, worldwide collections, existing experts, technological innovation and collaborative teamwork. Existing digitization projects are overcoming obstacles of the past, facilitating collaboration and mobilizing literature, data, images and specimens through cyber technologies. Charting the biosphere is enormously complex, yet necessary expertise can be found through partnerships with engineers, information scientists, sociologists, ecologists, climate scientists, conservation biologists, industrial project managers and taxon specialists, from agrostologists to zoophytologists. Benefits to society of the proposed mission would be profound, immediate and enduring, from detection of early responses of flora and fauna to climate change to opening access to evolutionary designs for solutions to countless practical problems. The impacts on the biodiversity, environmental and evolutionary sciences would be transformative, from ecosystem models calibrated in detail to comprehensive understanding of the origin and evolution of life over its 3.8 billion year history. The resultant cyber-enabled taxonomy, or cybertaxonomy, would open access to biodiversity data to developing nations, assure access to reliable data about species, and change how scientists and citizens alike access, use and think about biological diversity information.